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TechPriest90 Servant of the Omnissiah from Collegia Titanica, Mars, Sol System Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
Servant of the Omnissiah
#263876: Dec 8th 2018 at 5:06:52 PM

A lot of people have this belief that poor whites voted for Trump. As many here have pointed out, that wasn't the case.

The most votes for Trump came from the Upper-Middle Class and wealthy suburbanites. AKA We don't want those people (Read: poor people, skin-colour be damned) getting better because we're Feeling Oppressed by Their Existence.

Which isn't so surprising once you figure in the fact that it was these awful people who caused the occurrence of those Sundown Towns everywhere in the United States.

Poor people almost consistently voted Blue rather than Red. Irrespective of skin colour.

Guess that old bromide about people being more divided by class than race or nationality has more than a grain of truth to it.

I hold the secrets of the machine.
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#263877: Dec 8th 2018 at 5:16:56 PM

It causes some trouble that plenty of Democrats are willing to buy that Trump is beloved by the poor and working class.

Which is what I call "Bill Maher Logic."

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#263878: Dec 8th 2018 at 5:58:20 PM

It’s largly because people conflate being undereducated with being poor. People with a low level of education voted hugely for Trump, people then assume that that means the poor voted for Trump.

Middle-class people can have limited education and people with a strong education (especially recent graduates) can be poor.

It’s one thing that annoys me about 538, they keep dividing class by education level rather than ecenomic wealth.

The entire thing has a ring of bootstraps to it, that ‘obviously’ poor people are poor because they’re stupid, only the stupid become poor.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#263879: Dec 8th 2018 at 6:05:20 PM

Having worked in academia, I always point out that data is wonderful but what it means is the real trick. In this case, the correlations cited mean nothing to the idea that Hillary could not have won over those states.
They did a regression analysis of states based on their 2012 voting result, the amount of non-college-educated white people in their population, and the amount of Mormons in their population (the last point mostly to correct what would otherwise be large outliers in Utah and Idaho). These results correlated very highly with the actual 2016 election results. The amount of campaigning that each candidate did in each state correlated very poorly with the actual election results (see the Colorado example, where Trump campaigned heavily and Clinton not much at all, but Clinton won the state by 5 points).

Certainly there's more than one way to interpret data as a rule, but the data here seems to fit the conclusion that allocation of campaign resources is a fairly minor influence on election results in general, in which case blaming Hillary for losing the election by campaigning poorly makes little sense. If you have other data, or other interpretations of this data, that supports the conclusion that Hillary lost due to poor campaigning, you're free to present them — but so far you have not. You've just said "there are multiple ways to interpret data" and "correlation is not causation" without presenting any alternative.

You've also entirely sidestepped the first point I made, that even if she'd won the rust belt states she's faulted for ignoring, that by itself would not have won her the electoral college — she would have needed to win at least one more major battleground state (where she campaigned heavily) to actually win the election.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#263880: Dec 8th 2018 at 6:53:40 PM

[Doh]

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Dec 8th 2018 at 7:15:37 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#263881: Dec 8th 2018 at 6:59:44 PM

[up] Did you mean to post that in another thread? Because, if not, I'm legitimately confused.

nombretomado (Season 1) Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
#263882: Dec 8th 2018 at 7:08:29 PM

[up][up]That's definitely a post meant for The Good Place thread.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#263883: Dec 8th 2018 at 7:16:23 PM

  • sigh*

I hate when this happens.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#263884: Dec 8th 2018 at 7:24:48 PM

Apparently republicans are trying to get Democrats declared unconstitutional, a few years ago I would have immediately laughed this off but now they might actually have a chance.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#263886: Dec 8th 2018 at 7:27:46 PM

Yeah, please link us to where you got that.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#263887: Dec 8th 2018 at 7:32:40 PM

I think they're referring to this. Basically it's an article from the Huffington post about how Republicans are trying to limit the power of Democrats in the wake of liberal victories, and how this amounts to said Republicans attempting to make Democrats 'unconstitutional.'

Edited by kkhohoho on Dec 8th 2018 at 9:33:14 AM

Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#263888: Dec 8th 2018 at 7:47:45 PM

Isn't the Huffington Post supposed to be a major right wing news sight or am I mistaken?

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#263889: Dec 8th 2018 at 7:49:34 PM

....what.

No, if anything it gets the reputation of being a left-wing blog of questionable journalism.

Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#263890: Dec 8th 2018 at 7:50:03 PM

Yeah, pretty sure Huffington Post is one the less-credible left wing sources.

Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#263891: Dec 8th 2018 at 7:55:59 PM

I think I might have accidentally mixed up it's name with a different one.

Ingonyama Since: Jan, 2001
#263892: Dec 8th 2018 at 8:42:40 PM

That said, the actions of the Republicans in North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan are genuinely happening, and genuinely worrisome. Especially if the courts, the only real recourse left, side with the Republicans. From what I've read the new Democratic judge on North Carolina's Supreme Court may actually be able to fix things there (specifically by doing the same thing Pennsylvania's Supreme Court did, and ruling that gerrymandering must end under the state constitution, not federal). But things in Michigan and Wisconsin look pretty bad.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#263893: Dec 8th 2018 at 9:28:36 PM

The Republican complete lack of scruples or loyalty to the law grows increasingly more obvious as well as desperate. It's notable they will not budge an inch on their doctrine that increasingly doesn't win them elections fairly — so they just more overtly cheat.

Which is an attitude incompatible with democracy.

We've reached a point where these people need to go to jail.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Friendperson Since: May, 2018
#263894: Dec 9th 2018 at 8:09:14 AM

Huffington Post is up there with buzzfeed for ridiculous left-wing news. Avoid linking to it. There's far better sources.

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#263895: Dec 9th 2018 at 8:14:32 AM

Actually buzzfeed has broken some news stories in the past,so it's not completely garbage

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#263896: Dec 9th 2018 at 8:31:41 AM

I don't know about ridiculous left wing news, but it's definitely more left-biased. More something to bear in mind than a reason to avoid it entirely.

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#263897: Dec 9th 2018 at 8:36:33 AM

So what's the left wing equivalent to Breitbart News then?

(Wouldn't surprise if there was'nt one,the hufflepuff post isn't one despite what they claim)

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#263898: Dec 9th 2018 at 8:38:36 AM

I used to think Vox had that reputation, but I'm not sure I'm right about that.

Friendperson Since: May, 2018
#263899: Dec 9th 2018 at 8:40:52 AM

Maybe Slate or Salon.

Edit: Daily Kos, as well.

Edited by Friendperson on Dec 9th 2018 at 8:41:13 AM

PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#263900: Dec 9th 2018 at 8:52:39 AM

[up][up]It's mainly the right that doesn't like Vox's political pieces. I'll give you three guesses why.

i'm tired, my friend

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