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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#263276: Dec 2nd 2018 at 7:26:34 AM

Trump is more popular with the Republican voters than the Republicans ever were. Mostly because the politicians in the government have spent virtually every single ounce of good will in incredibly overt political corruption.

Is Trump different?

No.

But they see a distinct difference.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Dec 2nd 2018 at 7:27:53 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#263277: Dec 2nd 2018 at 7:46:40 AM

Yes, the difference is his blatant racism.

Mainstream Republicans merely expressed dog-whistles as a tool while Trump came right out of the gate with clear racist signaling in an authentic manner. Thus he earned the base's loyalty and support in a way that more tactically racist Republicans could not.

I don't really see any reason to believe that Republican voters have any problem with corruption.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Dec 2nd 2018 at 10:47:15 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#263278: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:05:00 AM

Or, more accurately, they don't mind corruption as long as their people are the ones doing it.

It's about "winning" to them, and as long as they win, the methods don't matter.

StarOutlaw Since: Nov, 2010
#263279: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:15:22 AM

[up]It's also why they never abandon one if their own when there's a scandal, because that would mean admitting a loss. They end up digging themselves deeper, and sometimes that does work if the scandal can just blow over. For their supporters, that saves more face that getting rid of the bad apple.

Its something pervasive in the conservative mindset; nothing is wrong with what they do, they shouldn't need to change or get rid of bad apples, either when it comes to politicians or police.

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#263280: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:22:14 AM

Yeah. Turning on Trump would be political suicide, as ridiculous as that sounds. The Republicans made their bed. If they don't lie in it, they can expect to lose a lot of turnout.

They need people to show up and vote for Trump in 2020, because those people will also vote downticket. Without Trump voters, 2020's congressional result is just going to be 2018 2: Electric Blue-galoo.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#263281: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:39:58 AM

Now if Trump looses in 2020 and tries to get the nomination again in 2024 I could see a serious effort to block him, simply because him loosing in 2020 would show that he’s toxic to the party even with his high internal support.

Though if he looses in 2020 I expect Trump to be in jail by 2024.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#263282: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:40:01 AM

Or, more accurately, they don't mind corruption as long as their people are the ones doing it.

It's about "winning" to them, and as long as they win, the methods don't matter.

I wouldn't call this more accurate, just a question of differing definitions of tolerating corruption.

I would argue that if someone only cares about corruption when the other side does it they don't actually care about corruption.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#263283: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:40:12 AM

[up][up][up]The opposite of that statement is also true, though- the GOP appealing only to Trump's base is what caused 2018 to go down the way it did. They need to find some way of winning back independents and moderate conservatives if they want to win, and Trump doesn't seem inclined to perform the course correction that would require.

Edited by Gilphon on Dec 2nd 2018 at 11:40:27 AM

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#263284: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:47:25 AM

Thing is, not only is Trump not adding any new voters, his voter base is also shrinking. After all, a lot of people are already impacted by his politics. There are also a lot of broken promises. There will always be the absolute fanatics, but they alone aren't enough to hand him a win.

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#263285: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:49:01 AM

Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2018, though.

Trump's game plan in 2018 was to tell people that they needed to turn out and vote for him. But he wasn't on the ballot, and I remember some interviews with Republicans straight up saying, "I'm not voting because I can't vote for Trump this year."

Edited by TobiasDrake on Dec 2nd 2018 at 9:49:53 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#263286: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:51:09 AM

If you think the big difference is just racism, I think you severely underestimate the skill and horror that the Republicans have waged war on the poor.

Trump's racism is monstrous but he's not methodical or dedicated to killing America's most vulnerable.

Which is to say, "We're all afraid of someone competent following the same agenda."

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
MrHellboy The Shadow from A world of my own Since: Dec, 2017 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
The Shadow
#263287: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:54:40 AM

So honestly, let's hear it:

How likely do we all think it is that Trump will be re-elected in 2020?

I mean, this country kind of likes its two-term presidents

The hardest thing in this world is to live in it.
Steven (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
#263288: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:55:29 AM

I say at least a 50-50 shot. We can't ignore the possibility that Trump may be reelected.

Remember, these idiots drive, fuck, and vote. Not always in that order.
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#263289: Dec 2nd 2018 at 8:57:36 AM

[up][up][up][up]Not a statically significant number- the 2018 turnout was great for both parties, almost at Presidential election levels. It's just that a lot of Republicans defected and the Independents mostly voted blue.

Trump might not have been on the ballot directly, but he was the attention-grabbing issue on everybody's minds

Edited by Gilphon on Dec 2nd 2018 at 11:57:59 AM

RedSavant Since: Jan, 2001
#263290: Dec 2nd 2018 at 10:01:44 AM

I can't see Trump voluntarily running again in 2020 unless there's a massive internal campaign to prove to him that everyone adores him and wants him back in the White House, or if he feels like he'll be in danger from investigations if he leaves the Presidential seat. He's a growling cyst of an old man who wants to go home to New York and spends as little time being President as he can.

It's been fun.
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#263291: Dec 2nd 2018 at 10:02:28 AM

... he’s got the ego of a planet. He'd never step down unless forced to do so.

CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#263292: Dec 2nd 2018 at 10:06:29 AM

[up][up][up][up]We can't ignore the possibility of him being reelected, but I think those odds are too biased in his favor. Trump had a perfect storm of scandal and skulduggery benefiting him in the closing months of the campaign and the decisive states he won were won by thin margins. He was also a neophyte with no political record in 2016, and so could be anything to anyone. In 2020, he will have a full term of corruption and general mismanagement to defend, and with the events of this past month considered, it's likely the Mueller investigation will still be looming over him. If the Democrats can get a good candidate — it doesn't even have to be an exceptional, once-in-a-lifetime one, and a good campaign apparatus, it's entirely possible for us to win.

We have to avoid overestimating Trump and treating his position as stronger than it is. He's an extraordinarily vulnerable candidate.

Edited by CrimsonZephyr on Dec 2nd 2018 at 1:07:17 PM

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
Euodiachloris Since: Oct, 2010
#263293: Dec 2nd 2018 at 10:11:42 AM

Trump will certainly run again if he believes it to be the only way to prevent the Law coming after him with handcuffs and a wagon.

If he believes that being President means he ultimately can tell the courts what to do even if they don't want to, President is what he'll try to stay (even if he hates it).

Narcissist 101: never admit you're wrong, always do what you believe will hurt you less however counterintuitive, convince those you're hurting (either indirectly or directly) that it's obviously their own fault you're hurting them... because if they couldn't be hurt by him, they wouldn't be hurt by him.

It's only logical... (from that warped viewpoint).

Edited by Euodiachloris on Dec 2nd 2018 at 6:14:10 PM

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#263294: Dec 2nd 2018 at 10:14:10 AM

Yeah, it is like after everyone underestimated how racist and easily manipulated americans actually are, now everyone is overestimating Trump's influence. Unless the Republicans find a new way to cheat, I don't see him win again.

AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#263295: Dec 2nd 2018 at 10:32:00 AM

Without Trump voters, 2020's congressional result is just going to be 2018 2: Electric Blue-galoo.

[lol][awesome]

How likely do we all think it is that Trump will be re-elected in 2020?

Depends on what happens and who's facing off against him. If the primary is as much of a *BLEEP*show as the Republican primary in 2016, the Democrats are going to have a harder time. Individual candidates have there own strengths and weaknesses, so its honestly hard to say past that. I'd expect taking the Hillary Clinton route of sliding to the Right on immigration would probably be an extremely poor choice to make, though.

Remember that voter suppression is also being fought, and turnout tends to favor Democrats. Moreover, Trump has done a good job of making himself out to be what he is: a Right-Wing Authoritarian who's rather impulsive and can't take criticism.

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer
Ishntknew Since: Apr, 2009
#263296: Dec 2nd 2018 at 10:33:02 AM

Given how attention hungry he is, I can only see one reason Trump wouldn't run again in 2020. He could see that he has a high likelihood of losing and not run for reelection, using the ensuing Republican loss to bolster his ego. At that point he'd say that if he had run, he would have won. Can't beat him if he doesn't compete!

...But that probably won't happen. More likely he will run again and just claim that the votes were rigged/illegal/whatever if he loses.

Ultimately, he has an escape plan for his ego no matter what, because you can't beat Trump. If he reapplies and wins, it's on his own merits. If he reapplies and loses, it's because the system cheated against him. If he doesn't reapply and the Republicans win, it's because he left a good impression of the party. If he doesn't reapply and the Republicans lose, it's because he wasn't the one running.

It's how his brain works. He "always wins" because he rewrites the rules after the fact. And that makes him not only annoyingly smug, but also unable to learn from his failures, which explains how he got to be 72 years old and still knows nothing.

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#263297: Dec 2nd 2018 at 10:51:22 AM

Remember, in order for Trump to win the first time, all stars had to align. And the next time, he has a bigger hurdle to climb, because he will have had a hard time to sell himself as an outsider ready to drain the swamp.

Plus, in two years he will have successfully destroyed Obama's work and at the very least slowed down the economy.

AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#263298: Dec 2nd 2018 at 10:55:15 AM

[up] I've considered that, but remember that the incumbent naturally has the advantage. But if you're right, it could actually play against him rather than for him, so to speak. Though people still seem to think he's "draining the swamp"...

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#263299: Dec 2nd 2018 at 11:12:32 AM

The problem with the "Clinton Strategy" (Centrism) is that usually the Democrats alienate their own supporters and come off as Republican-lite versus actually winning anyone over.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#263300: Dec 2nd 2018 at 11:34:18 AM

Two questions:

  1. Why are we entertaining the notion of Trump not running for re-election?
  2. What does the "Clinton Strategy" have to do with anything?

i'm tired, my friend

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