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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

StarOutlaw Since: Nov, 2010
#260301: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:28:09 PM

I'm disappointed Phil lost Tennessee, especially when he seemed to have a nice lead a few months ago. I'd like to know why that is. In any case, I was prepared for it. So long as we can get the house...

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#260302: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:29:54 PM

If we can mobilize them. If they turn out. These are things I've been hearing for years now and they've never come to pass.

What do you expect any of us to say? Probability doesn't stop being a thing just because it doesn't go the way we would like.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260303: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:30:57 PM

I think ABC are calling things to early, Tennessee, Indiana and West Virginia all remain uncalled by the AP.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#260304: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:31:14 PM

As someone who lives in Texas and has done the research, Democrats usually take the Rio Grande Valley counties, and all but one of the Urban counties. That one county is Tarrant County (Ft. Worth). If Tarrant County flips, then it's all over for Cruz.

And based on what I'm hearing, O'Rourke has a lead there.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#260305: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:32:40 PM

[up][up]Well, hopefully that's the case.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260306: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:33:49 PM

Alright AP have called Indiana so I'm willing to put that one to rest, though I still find calling a race with only 58% counted to be weird.

Florida is still looking very close.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
BlueNinja0 The Mod with the Migraine from Taking a left at Albuquerque Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
The Mod with the Migraine
#260307: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:39:02 PM

On the Governor front, things are looking alright - Wisconsin only has about 1/5 counted, but the odious Scott Walker is behind 3%. There's plenty of races closer than that, but some of the weird ones called are Maryland, which has been called for the Republican with only 4% of districts reporting?

That’s the epitome of privilege right there, not considering armed nazis a threat to your life. - Silasw
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#260308: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:39:44 PM

Hearing NBC called Colorado governor for Jared Polis.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260309: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:40:16 PM

I think Maryland is one of (possibly the) most popular incumbent governors, who is the Republican there.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Cris_Meyers reluctant author, willing misanthrope from Chicagoland (Fifth Year at Tropey's) Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
reluctant author, willing misanthrope
#260310: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:40:51 PM

What do you expect any of us to say? Probability doesn't stop being a thing just because it doesn't go the way we would like.

What probability? That a single win will mobilize a voting block that is notoriously un-motivated? How is a single win in Texas going to undo the voter suppression and other issues when the Republicans still control the Senate?

I'm sorry, but this just sounds like a lot of 'Texas is turning purple' rhetoric that I've been hearing for a decade now and dislike of Ted Cruz talking. Few are going to be happier than me to see Cruz gone, but if Cruz is gone and the Republicans still control the Senate we're still sitting at square one.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#260311: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:43:15 PM

I'm also hearing Polis (D) has won, making him the first gay governor of Colorado.

I think I can hear Tobias whooping from here.

PushoverMediaCritic I'm sorry Tien, but I must go all out. from the Italy of America Since: Jul, 2015 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
I'm sorry Tien, but I must go all out.
#260312: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:43:43 PM

The fact that no information has come in yet about any of the Arizona races is making me a bit antsy.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260313: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:45:45 PM

Arizona polls haven't been closed for very long, that's all.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#260314: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:46:04 PM

[up]x4 There’s a difference between relying on demographics alone to save you versus cautious optimism.

[up][up][up]Yay! In Indiana state senate news, it looks like a gay Democratic candidate might have unseated a VERY homophobic republican incumbent who’s had the seat since 2005. HELL YEAH.

Edited by wisewillow on Nov 6th 2018 at 9:46:49 AM

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#260315: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:47:50 PM

538 Update:

Democrats are doing what they need to do, part 487: With 47 percent reporting in the Minnesota 3rd, Democrat Dean Phillips is crushing Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen 57 percent to 43 percent. With 21 percent reporting in the Illinois 6th, Democrat Sean Casten is beating Republican Rep. Peter Roskam 54 percent to 46 percent. With 15 percent reporting in the Michigan 11th, Democrat Haley Stevens is leading Republican Lena Epstein 54 percent to 43 percent.

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#260316: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:48:03 PM

The interesting part of the Texas voting is that a lot of the votes against Cruz come from deep red districts, where nobody expected them to turn up.

And again, every Senate seat is a good thing. This is only the start of the race after all.

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#260317: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:51:03 PM

Well, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has won. And Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has flipped a seat in Florida.

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#260318: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:51:57 PM

[up] And Dean Phillips flipped Minnesota 3.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#260320: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:53:43 PM

Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has flipped FL-26.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#260321: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:53:46 PM

[up][up]Good. Phillips is Dem.

Edited by kkhohoho on Nov 6th 2018 at 8:53:56 AM

Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#260322: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:54:15 PM

FL-26 would be a good sign, going by a TPM post about races to watch (some of which we now already know).

The first race we may know about is the closely watched battle between Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) and former Marine fighter pilot Amy Mc Grath. Eastern Kentucky polls close at 6 p.m. EST. The Lexington-based district leans heavily Republican, but Mc Grath’s strong campaign has put it on the map, and her huge fundraising advantage has allowed her to weather an onslaught of attacks from GOP outside groups to keep the race close.

Strategists in both parties see a coin-flip race. If she’s winning, that’s a good sign Democrats will take the House. If she isn’t it could be a longer night, and though Democrats have plenty of other routes to the majority if she’s getting blown out that’s a bad sign.

An hour later comes Virginia, the entirety of Indiana and Georgia, all of which have crucial races, as well as parts of Florida with key House battles.

Virginia is especially important to watch in the battle for House control.

Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA) has trailed by wide margins in almost every public poll, and if Democrats aren’t beating her in an upscale suburban district outside Washington, D.C. that Hillary Clinton won by 10 points, something big has gone wrong for the party. Reps. Dave Brat (R-VA) and Scott Taylor (R-VA) are both in very close races.

While Democrats could still win the majority without either seat, if one or both of them go down that indicates that Democrats are performing strongly in normally GOP-leaning districts with lots of suburban territory and are more likely to be on pace for a House gain of at least 30 seats. Another race to watch is an open-seat contest in Virginia’s 5th district that strategists think leans slightly to the GOP. If Democrats are winning there as well, surf’s up.

Indiana is the first big Senate prize where results will start coming in. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) is in a tight race against businessman Mike Braun (R). If he’s losing in the Republican-heavy state that all but ends Democrats’ hopes of flipping the Senate. If he’s winning, that’s a sign that Democrats will likely minimize losses and potentially pick up Senate seats. If it’s by a comfortable margin, the blue wave might be bigger than expected.

Georgia’s polls also close at 7 p.m. ET. Former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) and Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) are in a tight race that may be headed to a recount. Keep an eye on Reps. Karen Handel (R-GA) and Rob Woodall (R-GA) as well. Handel famously beat Jon Ossoff in a special election and appeared safe until the race’s closing weeks. If Abrams has big suburban coattails and Handel is going down, that’s a sign of a pretty big night for Democrats. If Woodall is losing as well, that’s a very ominous sign for the GOP and a sign that Democrats may be on pace for a blowout in the House.

Florida also has a number of key House races. If Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) is losing, the House is probably flipping. But if he’s winning and Democrats are blowing a seeming slam-dunk race in Florida’s open 27th seat, that’s a bad sign that might mean Republicans could hang onto the House. If Democrats are winning an open seat in the Tampa Bay-area 15th district they’re probably winning the majority, and if Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-FL) and Brian Mast (R-FL) are going down the blue wave is a big one.

Edited by Eschaton on Nov 6th 2018 at 6:55:22 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#260323: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:54:22 PM

Erik Paulsen was the incumbent republican for MN-3, so yes. NPR still has the dems at net 3 gain.

AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#260324: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:54:24 PM

West Virginia has been called for Manchin.

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer
Larkmarn Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Hello, I love you
#260325: Nov 6th 2018 at 6:54:34 PM

Someone want to explain to me why NYTimes is saying the Republicans have a greater than 95% chance of keeping the House?

Seriously, am I grossly misunderstanding things?

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