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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
As someone who lives in Texas and has done the research, Democrats usually take the Rio Grande Valley counties, and all but one of the Urban counties. That one county is Tarrant County (Ft. Worth). If Tarrant County flips, then it's all over for Cruz.
And based on what I'm hearing, O'Rourke has a lead there.
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."Alright AP have called Indiana so I'm willing to put that one to rest, though I still find calling a race with only 58% counted to be weird.
Florida is still looking very close.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranOn the Governor front, things are looking alright - Wisconsin only has about 1/5 counted, but the odious Scott Walker is behind 3%. There's plenty of races closer than that, but some of the weird ones called are Maryland, which has been called for the Republican with only 4% of districts reporting?
That’s the epitome of privilege right there, not considering armed nazis a threat to your life. - SilaswWhat probability? That a single win will mobilize a voting block that is notoriously un-motivated? How is a single win in Texas going to undo the voter suppression and other issues when the Republicans still control the Senate?
I'm sorry, but this just sounds like a lot of 'Texas is turning purple' rhetoric that I've been hearing for a decade now and dislike of Ted Cruz talking. Few are going to be happier than me to see Cruz gone, but if Cruz is gone and the Republicans still control the Senate we're still sitting at square one.
x4 There’s a difference between relying on demographics alone to save you versus cautious optimism.
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Yay! In Indiana state senate news, it looks like a gay Democratic candidate might have unseated a VERY homophobic republican incumbent who’s had the seat since 2005. HELL YEAH.
Edited by wisewillow on Nov 6th 2018 at 9:46:49 AM
538 Update:
FL-26 would be a good sign, going by a TPM post about races to watch
(some of which we now already know).
Strategists in both parties see a coin-flip race. If she’s winning, that’s a good sign Democrats will take the House. If she isn’t it could be a longer night, and though Democrats have plenty of other routes to the majority if she’s getting blown out that’s a bad sign.
An hour later comes Virginia, the entirety of Indiana and Georgia, all of which have crucial races, as well as parts of Florida with key House battles.
Virginia is especially important to watch in the battle for House control.
Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA) has trailed by wide margins in almost every public poll, and if Democrats aren’t beating her in an upscale suburban district outside Washington, D.C. that Hillary Clinton won by 10 points, something big has gone wrong for the party. Reps. Dave Brat (R-VA) and Scott Taylor (R-VA) are both in very close races.
While Democrats could still win the majority without either seat, if one or both of them go down that indicates that Democrats are performing strongly in normally GOP-leaning districts with lots of suburban territory and are more likely to be on pace for a House gain of at least 30 seats. Another race to watch is an open-seat contest in Virginia’s 5th district that strategists think leans slightly to the GOP. If Democrats are winning there as well, surf’s up.
Indiana is the first big Senate prize where results will start coming in. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) is in a tight race against businessman Mike Braun (R). If he’s losing in the Republican-heavy state that all but ends Democrats’ hopes of flipping the Senate. If he’s winning, that’s a sign that Democrats will likely minimize losses and potentially pick up Senate seats. If it’s by a comfortable margin, the blue wave might be bigger than expected.
Georgia’s polls also close at 7 p.m. ET. Former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) and Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) are in a tight race that may be headed to a recount. Keep an eye on Reps. Karen Handel (R-GA) and Rob Woodall (R-GA) as well. Handel famously beat Jon Ossoff in a special election and appeared safe until the race’s closing weeks. If Abrams has big suburban coattails and Handel is going down, that’s a sign of a pretty big night for Democrats. If Woodall is losing as well, that’s a very ominous sign for the GOP and a sign that Democrats may be on pace for a blowout in the House.
Florida also has a number of key House races. If Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) is losing, the House is probably flipping. But if he’s winning and Democrats are blowing a seeming slam-dunk race in Florida’s open 27th seat, that’s a bad sign that might mean Republicans could hang onto the House. If Democrats are winning an open seat in the Tampa Bay-area 15th district they’re probably winning the majority, and if Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-FL) and Brian Mast (R-FL) are going down the blue wave is a big one.
Edited by Eschaton on Nov 6th 2018 at 6:55:22 AM

I'm disappointed Phil lost Tennessee, especially when he seemed to have a nice lead a few months ago. I'd like to know why that is. In any case, I was prepared for it. So long as we can get the house...