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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#260226: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:23:43 PM

My vote is in, as Democratic as one might expect (and for Congress, as useless as one might expect - Don Young isn't going anywhere). The gubernatorial race in Alaska was polling at a dead heat, though, so every vote for Begich counts.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260227: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:24:50 PM

Keep in mind that it's extrapolating from a lot of early data, right now I'm just ignoring anything that isn't either called or at 50% reporting.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#260228: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:26:36 PM

538 is looking really bad guy, apparently there's a 1/2 chance that the Republicans will retain control of congress!

Silas explained this earlier but we're still pretty early on and any results coming in can cause big number changes. It's too soon to be getting worried.

[nja]

Edited by Draghinazzo on Nov 6th 2018 at 9:26:51 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#260229: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:27:00 PM

Yeah, the 538 counter changes every few minutes or even every few seconds as they get data. It changed twice as I stared at it before settling in 4/7 chance. It'll probably have changed again by the time I send this post.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#260230: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:29:25 PM

To quote the site itself:

You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.

Basically, it's overcompensating.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#260231: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:30:41 PM

[up]So basically it's going to be mostly unreliable until later on? In which case, what's the damn point?

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#260232: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:31:39 PM

It's only unreliable because we're in a brief window where we've only got R-favouring "maybe" districts reporting in.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260234: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:31:59 PM

To extrapolate let's look at Indiana, a key senate race.

Right now the Democrat is down by 17 points with 37% reporting, so 538 have it as an almost guaranteed grab for the Republicans.

Thing is we're getting early results from rural areas (generally a few precincts in each of the more rural counties) while the more urban areas (like Indianapolis itself) have a much smaller percentage of their precincts reporting right now (just over 15% of Indianapolis by my count) and with urban areas you're looking at a much higher concentration of voters per precinct.

The headline numbers will come into play once we have some races called, then they can extrapolate out properly.

Edited by Silasw on Nov 6th 2018 at 1:32:44 PM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#260235: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:35:17 PM

Dems control the whole of Illinois' state governance now, at least.

538 has made its predictions a bit more conservative after seeing how silly it was getting.

Edited by RainehDaze on Nov 6th 2018 at 1:39:37 PM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260236: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:39:22 PM

Florida is looking highly likely to restore voting rights to the vast majority of felons, this is likely to have a big impact in 2020, as felons who will regain their voting rights via this are largely African-America and will vote for Democrats.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Cris_Meyers reluctant author, willing misanthrope from Chicagoland (Fifth Year at Tropey's) Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
reluctant author, willing misanthrope
#260237: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:42:53 PM

[up][up]They called the gov race?

Edited by Cris_Meyers on Nov 6th 2018 at 7:43:18 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260239: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:45:03 PM

Not a chance, Florida governorship and senate are far to close, don't expect a call until we've got close to 100% reporting (currently 74% and 79%).

edit: Thought you meant Florida, my bad.

Edited by Silasw on Nov 6th 2018 at 1:45:26 PM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#260240: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:46:48 PM

NPR has the Dems at 3 pickups for the house now, but I don't know what the third is.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Nov 6th 2018 at 9:47:01 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#260242: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:48:31 PM

It looks like Donnelly lost.

[nja]

Edited by KarkatTheDalek on Nov 6th 2018 at 8:48:55 AM

Oh God! Natural light!
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260243: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:49:16 PM

I'm seeing the first toss up called by the New York Times, Kentucky 6th for the Republicans.

Also ABC are calling Indiana for the Republicans, personally I think calling it at only 47% reporting is far to soon.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#260244: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:50:33 PM

Unless Indy and Gary turnout is obscene, yeah, he’s done. Goddamn spineless moron. I voted for him very angrily. You could smell the desperation on him; the desperate need to appease the GOP at every turn. Principles can overcome partisanship; see: Republicans voting Gillum. But craven spinelessness? Lol, no. Donnelly has all the charisma of wonderbread and none of the nutritional value.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260245: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:51:43 PM

AP still aren't calling it so I'm gonna hold until they've also called it.

Edited by Silasw on Nov 6th 2018 at 1:53:08 PM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#260246: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:52:07 PM

[up][up]I mean, apparently voting against Kavanaugh might have been what cost him so...

Edited by LSBK on Nov 6th 2018 at 7:52:28 AM

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#260247: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:53:10 PM

Why I am not surprised? I saw Donelly's add today and way really confused. Who the hell would want to want to vote for a Democrat who is pro Trump's border wall?

Amy Mc Garth apparently fell short in Kentucky.

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#260248: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:54:35 PM

[up][up]Uhhhh no. The ads barely mentioned Kavanaugh. Most of them were very broad “DONNELLY STANDS WITH THE RADICAL LEFT. DONNELLY WANTS OPEN BORDERS.” crap.

Which, he’s suppprted Trump’s damn wall, and the radical left DESPISES him, so.

Edited by wisewillow on Nov 6th 2018 at 8:55:01 AM

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#260249: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:54:55 PM

538 Update:

Zooming out for a big-picture look at the House: Things are very much going according to script. Republicans are winning the districts we said leaned toward them, Democrats are winning the districts we said leaned toward them, and the toss-ups — as you can see below — are splitting evenly between the parties.

AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#260250: Nov 6th 2018 at 5:54:58 PM

So, Indiana is likely down? Not surprised, but not really good news.

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer

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