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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Silas explained this earlier but we're still pretty early on and any results coming in can cause big number changes. It's too soon to be getting worried.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Nov 6th 2018 at 9:26:51 AM
To quote the site itself:
Basically, it's overcompensating.
I've been keeping track using NPR
https://www.npr.org/2018/11/06/650523564/2018-house-election-results-for-congressional-races
To extrapolate let's look at Indiana, a key senate race.
Right now the Democrat is down by 17 points with 37% reporting, so 538 have it as an almost guaranteed grab for the Republicans.
Thing is we're getting early results from rural areas (generally a few precincts in each of the more rural counties) while the more urban areas (like Indianapolis itself) have a much smaller percentage of their precincts reporting right now (just over 15% of Indianapolis by my count) and with urban areas you're looking at a much higher concentration of voters per precinct.
The headline numbers will come into play once we have some races called, then they can extrapolate out properly.
Edited by Silasw on Nov 6th 2018 at 1:32:44 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranDems control the whole of Illinois' state governance now, at least.
538 has made its predictions a bit more conservative after seeing how silly it was getting.
Edited by RainehDaze on Nov 6th 2018 at 1:39:37 PM
Florida is looking highly likely to restore voting rights to the vast majority of felons, this is likely to have a big impact in 2020, as felons who will regain their voting rights via this are largely African-America and will vote for Democrats.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranNot a chance, Florida governorship and senate are far to close, don't expect a call until we've got close to 100% reporting (currently 74% and 79%).
edit: Thought you meant Florida, my bad.
Edited by Silasw on Nov 6th 2018 at 1:45:26 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranIt looks like Donnelly lost.
Edited by KarkatTheDalek on Nov 6th 2018 at 8:48:55 AM
Oh God! Natural light!I'm seeing the first toss up called by the New York Times, Kentucky 6th for the Republicans.
Also ABC are calling Indiana for the Republicans, personally I think calling it at only 47% reporting is far to soon.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranUnless Indy and Gary turnout is obscene, yeah, he’s done. Goddamn spineless moron. I voted for him very angrily. You could smell the desperation on him; the desperate need to appease the GOP at every turn. Principles can overcome partisanship; see: Republicans voting Gillum. But craven spinelessness? Lol, no. Donnelly has all the charisma of wonderbread and none of the nutritional value.
Why I am not surprised? I saw Donelly's add today and way really confused. Who the hell would want to want to vote for a Democrat who is pro Trump's border wall?
Amy Mc Garth apparently fell short in Kentucky.
538 Update:

My vote is in, as Democratic as one might expect (and for Congress, as useless as one might expect - Don Young isn't going anywhere). The gubernatorial race in Alaska was polling at a dead heat, though, so every vote for Begich counts.