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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#260126: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:07:05 PM

Even if it flipped to blue, you need 66 for a theoretical success. That's a statistical impossibility. The closest Democrats have gotten in the past forty-odd years was 61 in 1976. It's literally impossible this year, and it's statistically improbable any other year.

Edited by CrimsonZephyr on Nov 6th 2018 at 4:08:21 AM

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260127: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:08:34 PM

Yeah the only real way to impeachment (well impeachment followed by conviction in the senate) is for Republicans to side with Dems against Trump, that would require an investigation to unearth something huge and even then it might not happen.

Thing is if the Dems take the house they can stop the Republicans passing any more bad laws, if they somehow take the Senate they can stop Trump appointing bad judges and cabinet members.

Also any gains made in Congress tonight will help for 2020, that’s before we look at state races for both governorships and state legislators.

[up] If the Dems run the board tonight and again in 2020 it’s theoretically possible. But for that we need tonight to be insanely good, I’m not just talking Texas and Tennessee, but also two of Nebraska, Wyoming and Mississippi. That would have to be followed by something like a 10 seat gain in 2020.

Edited by Silasw on Nov 6th 2018 at 9:10:48 AM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#260128: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:10:36 PM

I personally wonder if we'll be able to keep the House in 2020. Though I suppose it's far too early to call that

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260129: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:13:33 PM

A lot comes down to how the 2020 presidential election goes, if Trump looses 2020 then the Dems may well make more gains there and end up with a three line majority (house, senate and presidency), however a Trump re-election in 2020 is likely to see the House go back to red unless the Dems do insanely good tonight.

2022 will also be a very interesting year, as we will see new voting maps which could means things change dramatically or don’t change when they otherwise would.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#260130: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:14:44 PM

I mean, if Trump's unpopularity and anti-GOP sentiment result in the House shifting tonight, and then those feelings are maintained, the Democrats should be seizing DC in 2 years. Assuming the nominee is remotely viable and Trump hasn't managed to reinforce his teflon shield.

Remember; Mueller is still working away.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#260131: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:18:23 PM

Just a reminder that midterm elections have no predictive value whatsoever for the next presidential election. See 2010, 1998, 1994, 1986 and 1982 for example.

IMO the only way Trump gets successfully impeached is if Democrats get a seat in a super red state like Wyoming or Utah. Or if you have videos of enough Republican senators committing serious crimes with which you can extort them. Or if by some miracle the GOP abandons Trump like they did with Nixon post-"Smoking Gun" tape.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#260132: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:21:50 PM

Trump will be running in 2020 as someone with an established political record against which the Democratic campaign can offer both broad and line-item criticism. That wasn't the case in 2016, where Trump was able to wrangle decisive independent support by being all things to all people. The polling — which, admittedly, might not pan out in the results — indicates that a good number of people who loved Trump in 2016 are sick of Trump in 2018. We'll see how it goes in 2020. Democrats need the right candidate and a more cogent campaigning strategy, but it's entirely within our grasp to win it all.

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
Spinosegnosaurus77 Ramen Fairy from Ontario, Canada Since: May, 2011 Relationship Status: All I Want for Christmas is a Girlfriend
Ramen Fairy
#260133: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:22:27 PM

A quick Google search tells me that impeachment & removal from office are different things. That explains my confusion.

Do we think the Dems will win in 2020? Obviously tons of people will want Trump gone, but most of the potential candidates have a lot of baggage (e.g. Warren’s DNA fiasco).

Peace is the only battle worth waging.
Cris_Meyers reluctant author, willing misanthrope from Chicagoland (Fifth Year at Tropey's) Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
reluctant author, willing misanthrope
#260134: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:24:22 PM

2020 is more favorable than 2018 because of how we elect the Senate. Every 2 years 1/3 of them are up for re-election. This year most of those seats are Democrats. In 2020 it'll be the opposite.

Edited by Cris_Meyers on Nov 6th 2018 at 3:24:44 AM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#260135: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:26:54 PM

I think people also forget that Trump ran a strong anti-Republican platform as the Republican.

People who hated the GOP voted for him as well as people who hated Hillary and the Democrats.

Another reason why they won't be voting for the GOP tonight.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260136: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:31:51 PM

@Septimus I think you need two to the three. If the Dems take Wyoming and Mississippi than they’ve got a good number of seats, you add to that some damming evidence and Republicans being afraid of getting wiped out in 2020 and you might just get the 66 votes needed to remove Trump from office, but you need a solid number of Republicans to swing on Trump, that won’t happen as long as they aren’t afraid of a near total wipeout in 2020, even then you’d probably need a couple of moral defectors in the form of Romney and Murkowski.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
DeathorCake Since: Mar, 2016
#260137: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:40:17 PM

Re. Amendment 74, this has been a Republican talking point for literally decades.

"Conservatives argue that these government actions amount to an unlawful taking of property. They argue that if the government imposes regulations that reduce the value of private property, it should compensate the property owner for any loss incurred. This "no takings without compensation" demand was one of the rallying cries of the Republicans when they took control of Congress in 1994."

Dean Baker, The Conservative Nanny State (2006)

He then points out that if this is all being done in "the interests of fairness" as purported they'd have to also charge people who got a rise in property value from other government intervention, so implementing just one half is mostly just rich individuals and corporations trying to get a free lunch from the government again while gumming up the apparatus of state with a billion court cases.

Edited by DeathorCake on Nov 6th 2018 at 9:42:50 AM

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#260139: Nov 6th 2018 at 1:56:46 PM

The first result is in: Democrats win governorship in Guam

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#260140: Nov 6th 2018 at 2:00:15 PM

We have elections in Guam?

We own Guam?

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260141: Nov 6th 2018 at 2:02:44 PM

I forgot that they were that side of the international date line, that took a long time to count in that case.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
NickTheSwing Since: Aug, 2009
#260142: Nov 6th 2018 at 2:03:17 PM

What is a Guam? Is it something you eat?

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260143: Nov 6th 2018 at 2:05:34 PM

It’s a US Pacific island territory, it sends a non-voting representative to congress and while the people are not US citizens they do form a disproportionally large number of US servicemen and the island is a key US military base (during the worst of the North Korea flare ups there was talk of if North Korean missiles could reach the island).

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Ghilz Perpetually Confused from Yeeted at Relativistic Velocities Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Barbecuing
Perpetually Confused
#260144: Nov 6th 2018 at 2:09:46 PM

A long video essay, about conservatives telling you not to do the things that will actually work by appealing to your better nature.

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#260145: Nov 6th 2018 at 2:43:42 PM

Already been posted a few pages back

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
tsstevens Reading tropes such as You Know What You Did from Reading tropes such as Righting Great Wrongs Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: She's holding a very large knife
Reading tropes such as You Know What You Did
#260146: Nov 6th 2018 at 2:45:43 PM

Hello here there everywhere, for the past few weeks it had been playing on my mind Trump having some form of secret police to dictate how everyone in America acts. I know his supporters self appoint themselves to the position of his secret police like they were the thugs working for Adam Sutler in V for Vendetta. My understanding is that is an illegal act that would go a long way to impeaching Trump.

Well this might be worth looking at.

Here Farron Cousins of The Ring of Fire says how Attorney General Jeff Sessions followed up Trump's threat to vote for him by going out to voting booths to intimidate voters into voting Trump. Say, that sounds familiar. Where have I seen that before?

https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/freeelections_x.gif

Edited by tsstevens on Nov 6th 2018 at 9:53:47 PM

Currently reading up My Rule Fu Is Stronger than Yours
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#260147: Nov 6th 2018 at 2:46:58 PM

Um no Trump does not have an secret police force,being kinda silly

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
tsstevens Reading tropes such as You Know What You Did from Reading tropes such as Righting Great Wrongs Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: She's holding a very large knife
Reading tropes such as You Know What You Did
#260148: Nov 6th 2018 at 2:51:11 PM

Some of his voters seem to think that is their role. As does Jeff Sessions going about intimidating voters.

Edited by tsstevens on Nov 6th 2018 at 10:19:56 PM

Currently reading up My Rule Fu Is Stronger than Yours
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#260149: Nov 6th 2018 at 2:52:58 PM

To the best of my knowledge we've actually seen fewer reports of polling station incidents this year, I know that in 2016 we saw one or two outbreaks of violence at polling stations.

First polling places close in less than ten minutes people, it's time to buckle in, regardless of the results this will be a long night, what with Alaska being competitive.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#260150: Nov 6th 2018 at 2:54:17 PM

> As does Jess Sessions going about intimidating voters.

When did he do that?

have a listen and have a link to my discord server

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