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TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#259951: Nov 5th 2018 at 11:56:15 AM

Trump's approval rating was insanely low when he took office but has remained remarkably stable, as most of his approvers are die-hards who will never change their opinion. He's spent the last two years bouncing between 36% and 42%. His actions might sway the polls one way or another because of the minority of voters who don't have ironclad opinions on him, but rarely enough to go outside those parameters.

And with the Midterm drop that many Presidents received, his approval rating isn't really that unusual anymore. He's 3% under Obama, 2.4% under Clinton, and 0.1% under Reagan. It's really just the Bushes outshining him at this point in their Presidency, and at least in George W.'s case, that's largely because of the "AMERICA F*CK YEAH" frenzy that overtook the country for years after 9/11.

Trump may well become normalized as a President due to the stubbornness of his supporters keeping his approval ratings steady through the period that is usually marked by a significant drop.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Nov 5th 2018 at 12:58:22 PM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#259952: Nov 5th 2018 at 12:00:20 PM

I do think that his approval rating would drop into the low 30s (maybe even the high 20s) if the economy started to cool down.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#259953: Nov 5th 2018 at 12:03:18 PM

Part of the issue is that he is keeping his campaign promises or at least making an effort to.

His actions are horrible. But his campaign promises were themselves horrible, so that balances out. The people who approved of him in the beginning were the ones that actually wanted tax breaks, millions of dead minorities, women losing reproductive rights, and for America to tell the U.N. and global economy to choke on a dick and die.

So. Y'know. Those approvers aren't going anywhere. The minority of Americans who actually wanted President Trump are very satisfied with President Trump.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Nov 5th 2018 at 1:04:04 PM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Imca (Veteran)
#259954: Nov 5th 2018 at 1:20:02 PM

You know rather then making voting a federal holiday, if you want to make sure that people can, why not make it so that employers HAVE to give people paid time off to go vote.

However, to make it more palatable and to not fuck over the buisnesses, they are allowed to decide when the empoyess can go vote, to let them stagger them out so that there whole work force doesn't just up and leave at the same time?

Edited by Imca on Nov 5th 2018 at 1:20:37 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#259955: Nov 5th 2018 at 1:22:01 PM

You know rather then making voting a federal holiday, if you want to make sure that people can, why not make it so that employers HAVE to give people paid time off to go vote.

However, to make it more palatable and to not fuck over the buisnesses, they are allowed to decide when the empoyess can go vote, to let them stagger them out so that there whole work force doesn't just up and leave at the same time?

I like this idea.

Unless there are some perverse incentives I haven't thought of this could be an elegant way to address poor people not voting.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#259956: Nov 5th 2018 at 1:23:30 PM

They have something like this for Jury Duty, don't they? A requirement to provide time for it? No reason that couldn't extend to voting. Especially for states that do early voting since the actual day isn't as big a factor.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#259957: Nov 5th 2018 at 1:36:13 PM

California already does something similar. A worker can get up to two paid hours off to go vote so long as they notify their employer a few days ahead of time.

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#259958: Nov 5th 2018 at 2:00:58 PM

I am totally okay with Republicans NOT voting. If they feel uncomfortable with the current situation but not uncomfortable enough to go full democrat, that is understandable, especially if they live in a blue state anyway. Or, to put it differently, it is better than being fully entrenched with the Republicans.

In the end, it's in the hand of the Democrats. They are the majority after all. And they don't have an excuse to stay home.

3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#259959: Nov 5th 2018 at 2:06:08 PM

[up]A majority hampered by Gerrymandering and Voter Suppression, I note.

"You can reply to this Message!"
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#259960: Nov 5th 2018 at 2:13:31 PM

[up] Sure. But even this might not be enough if all Democrats (and all who are sick about the Republicans undermining the democracy) come out to vote.

I have the hope that all the open manipulation lead to more people voting. But then, I am always more optimistic about the electorate than I should be.

CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#259961: Nov 5th 2018 at 2:18:03 PM

Voter suppression isn't really that ironclad. A large part of the GOP's strategy is psychological warfare — scare voters into thinking they'll get into trouble if even a single hair is out of place when that's not the case. That's why turnout promoters often tell people to show up, even if they're afraid.

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#259962: Nov 5th 2018 at 2:23:51 PM

Voter suppression isn't really that ironclad. A large part of the GOP's strategy is psychological warfare — scare voters into thinking they'll get into trouble if even a single hair is out of place when that's not the case. That's why turnout promoters often tell people to show up, even if they're afraid.

This. Gerrymandering works in regular elections and can blunt a close election but if people seriously get out and vote then it can be swept aside.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
nightwyrm_zero Since: Apr, 2010
#259963: Nov 5th 2018 at 2:43:25 PM

Well, the whole idea of Gerrymandering is that instead of winning a lot in a few places, you design the districts so you win a little in a lot of places. This obviously can backfire if you're unable to maintain your slim victory margin in those areas.

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#259964: Nov 5th 2018 at 2:45:16 PM

[up][up] That is not entirely accurate, though. I think I remember seeing somewhere that in some states, the Republicans can win essentially 48% of the vote state wide and have like 70% of the seats in the state legislature and congress. Whereas if the Democrats get 51% of the vote state wide, they get 25% of the seats state wide. Even if the Democrats get up to 60 or 70%, they still get far less representation than would be appropriate based on the margin.

Edited by wisewillow on Nov 5th 2018 at 5:45:33 AM

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#259965: Nov 5th 2018 at 3:22:33 PM

Note that not all of that bias is due to voter suppression or gerrymandering.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#259966: Nov 5th 2018 at 3:30:27 PM

https://whatthefuckjusthappenedtoday.com/2018/11/05/day-655/

Day 655: Political stunt.

Dept. of Midterms 2018. With one day to go, I'll be keeping this space updated throughout the midterms with the latest polls and live blogs.

Forecasts: New York Times / Real Clear Politics / Five Thirty Eight: House / Senate

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

Live Blogs: Washington Post / The Guardian / CNN / Bloomberg

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/midterms-2018-countdown/index.html

Voter Guide: How, when and where to vote on Tuesday. (New York Times)

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/us/politics/midterm-elections-voting-guide.html

How to watch the midterms: A guide. (Five Thirty Eight)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-election-polls-close/

Races to watch and how to follow them. (Bloomberg / CNN)

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/05/politics/2018-midterms-roadmap-races-to-watch/index.html

What's at stake, explained. (Vox)

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/5/18064760/2018-midterms-stakes

Election Day misinformation. What to look for. (New York Times)

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/us/politics/misinformation-election-day.html

The Latest.

The Georgia secretary of state and Republican candidate for governor accused Democrats of allegedly trying to hack the state's voter registration system. Brian Kemp, who is in a tight race with Stacey Abrams, alleged that the state Democratic Party made a "failed attempt to hack the state's voter registration system" and announced that his office was opening an investigation. Kemp said his office also alerted the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI, but he offered no evidence to back up his allegation. Democrats called it a "political stunt" days before the election. (New York Times / NBC News / Washington Post)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/kemp-charges-georgia-democrats-attempted-voter-hack-abrams-fires-back-n931011

This year's early voting numbers in at least 12 states have already surpassed those from the 2014 midterm election. First-time voters have cast 5% or more of the early vote in 10 states. (CNN)

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/02/politics/early-vote-swamps-2014-and-first-timers/index.html

Early voter turnout in Texas surpassed the entire turnout in the 2014 midterm election. Over 4.5 million people in Texas cast in-person ballots in this year's early voting period and more than 360,000 people have cast mail-in ballots in 30 counties alone. (Texas Tribune)

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2018/general-election-early-voting/

Georgia and Texas voting machines have inexplicably deleted some people's votes for Democratic candidates or switched them to Republican votes. Experts blamed the errors on outdated software and old machines. (Politico)

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/05/voting-machine-errors-texas-georgia-2018-elections-midterms-959980

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted nine House races toward Democrats. (The Hill)

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/414863-cook-political-report-shifts-10-house-race-ratings-one-day-before-election

50% of likely voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 43% want Republicans in charge – down from Democrats' 9-point advantage in October. (NBC News)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/democrats-hold-7-point-edge-final-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n931001

43% of registered voters would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district on a generic congressional ballot compared with 40% who would vote for the Republican candidate. (Politico)

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/05/poll-generic-ballot-narrows-on-eve-of-midterms-960757

Trump's approval rating stands at 39%, with 55% disapproving – slightly worse than in early October, when 41% approved of his performance and 52% disapproved. (CNN)

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/05/politics/cnn-poll-midterms-democrats-advantage/index.html

Notables.

The Trump administration expects a number of Cabinet secretaries and top White House aides to be fired or actively pushed out after the midterms. Jeff Sessions, Rod Rosenstein, Sarah Sanders, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross all face uncertain futures. (Washington Post)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-administration-prepares-for-massive-shake-up-after-midterms/2018/11/04/dd6ad432-dded-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html

Financial penalties against banks and big companies have declined sharply during the first 20 months of the Trump presidency. There has been a 62% drop in penalties imposed by the S.E.C. and a 72% decline in corporate penalties from the Justice Department's criminal prosecutions compared to the Obama administration. (New York Times)

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/03/us/trump-sec-doj-corporate-penalties.html

NBC aired the racist anti-immigration political ad approved by Trump. After airing the ad, both NBC and Fox News pulled it. CNN, however, rejected the ad outright, saying "that this ad is racist." (New York Times / Washington Post / CNN)

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/05/media/nbc-trump-immigration-ad/index.html

Trump's deployment of troops to the U.S.-Mexico border is estimated to cost $220 million by year-end. A Pentagon risk assessment found that the caravan did not pose a threat to the United States. (CNBC / Washington Post)

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/trump-border-deployments-could-cost-220-million-pentagon-sees-no-caravan-threat.html

About "200 unregulated armed militia members [are] currently operating along the southwest border," according to a planning document for Army commanders leading the 5,200 troops Trump deployed at the border. The groups "operate under the guise of citizen patrols supporting" border officials. (Newsweek / Huff Post)

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-administration-migrant-caravan-border-troops-1196855

A group of Idaho teachers dressed up as a wall with the phrase "Make America Great Again" on it for Halloween. The district Superintendent called the costumes "clearly insensitive and inappropriate." (CNN)

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/02/us/idaho-teachers-border-costume-trnd/index.html

Trump's name was invoked in direct connection with 17 cases of criminal violent acts, threats of violence, or allegations of assault. Nearly all of the cases – 16 out of 17 – include court documents and direct evidence of someone echoing presidential rhetoric, not protesting it. The suspects and perpetrators in the 17 cases are mostly white men, while the victims represent a variety of minority groups, including African-Americans, Latinos, Muslims, and gay men. (ABC News)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/blame-abc-news-finds-17-cases-invoking-trump/story?id=58912889

Trump dismissed his administration's National Climate Assessment. Trump didn't read the report, but said he believes climate change will "probably" change back. (Axois)

https://www.axios.com/reality-check-trump-climate-change-comments-6a07878d-2385-4f07-af5b-cbe408cd737d.html

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#259967: Nov 5th 2018 at 3:50:27 PM

NBC aired the racist anti-immigration political ad approved by Trump. After airing the ad, both NBC and Fox News pulled it. CNN, however, rejected the ad outright, saying "that this ad is racist." (New York Times / Washington Post / CNN)

I feel weird that I am surprised by the actions of all three. NBC for airing it in the first place, Fox for pulling it, and CNN for growing a spine for once.

Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#259968: Nov 5th 2018 at 4:14:16 PM

Can the malfunctioning voting machines be fixed before the results are final? I'd be seriously pissed if it turns out by vote was switched.

Friendperson Since: May, 2018
#259969: Nov 5th 2018 at 4:58:50 PM

Do you live in a red state? I wouldn't hold your breath.

TacticalFox88 from USA Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Dating the Doctor
#259970: Nov 5th 2018 at 5:50:51 PM

So...guys...how do you feel?

Fate of the World rests on our shoulders tomorrow night.

I'm...oddly calm. Optimistic, yet calm.

New Survey coming this weekend!
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#259971: Nov 5th 2018 at 5:58:10 PM

The data has been favorable.

I have transportation to go vote.

I don't really feel any reason to stress over this.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Nov 5th 2018 at 8:58:22 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#259972: Nov 5th 2018 at 5:58:11 PM

I'm still sore about our governor remaining a Republican (Larry Hogan).

Like, what the fuck is this guy's appeal? Apparently he's denounced Trump IIRC. Is that seriously all it takes?

Edited by PhysicalStamina on Nov 5th 2018 at 8:58:25 AM

i'm tired, my friend
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#259973: Nov 5th 2018 at 5:59:26 PM

For some reason governors seem atypically insulated from national politics, party affiliation doesn't seem to matter nearly as much as it does in other positions.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#259974: Nov 5th 2018 at 6:00:51 PM

It works the other way around too. Trump won Montana pretty convincingly IIRC, but Steve Bullock is a democrat and remains a reasonably popular governor.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#259975: Nov 5th 2018 at 6:02:21 PM

Well, despite everyone trying to make it look like a horse race, 538's currently got the Dems at a 87% chance of taking the House. And according to a piece they just put out, while it's possible the Republicans might still somehow keep it, there would have to be a LOT more things going wrong than in, say, 2016. It's still uncertain, but I think it's very much possible.


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