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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Demongodofchaos2 Face me now, bitch! from In a Cultivation World (Ancient one) Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Face me now, bitch!
#259676: Nov 2nd 2018 at 7:40:58 AM

Beto O’rourke Is jut 3 points behind ted Cruz as of now:

https://www.salon.com/2018/11/01/texas-senate-race-tightens-democrat-beto-orourke-trails-ted-cruz-by-3-points-in-new-emerson-poll/

At this rate, anything could happen.

As for Abigail Spanberger, she pulled ahead of Dave Brat by 1 point on Monday.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/poll-challenger-spanberger-inches-ahead-rep-dave-brat

As it’s my home state of Virginia on the line, you bet your balls I’m voting straight democrat on Tuesday.

Watch Symphogear
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#259677: Nov 2nd 2018 at 7:49:05 AM

The problem with judging things by early voting is that it might just be shuffling the timing of when votes appear and not who is actually voting, and there's no good way to tell which is the case. It's not bad news, but it's also not necessarily good news. It's just news.

Uh no, youth vote increasing significantly and older vote decreasing is pretty good news. Could some data come out that paints a different picture? Sure but that doesn't make the existing data less significant, and it's rather silly to say that it's not good.

I think we can wait four days without wringing our hands about early voting. Be patient, intelligence and common decency will win in the end.

Literally, no-one is doing this, I brought up some good early voting numbers and some people urged caution.

That's it.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#259678: Nov 2nd 2018 at 8:25:38 AM

Most of the key numbers are in the Democrats favor (unlike two years ago), there is every reason to be excited and optimistic this close to election day.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#259679: Nov 2nd 2018 at 9:21:56 AM

Remember that there is only one poll that counts, though. Although it looks like the scum of the United States is more likely than not (6/7 chance, I believe) going to get the boot from at least one House of Congress. And some state legislatures and governorships.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#259680: Nov 2nd 2018 at 9:23:41 AM

Be patient, intelligence and common decency will win in the end.

You mean like they did in 2016? Patience is waiting for a good outcome to be handed to you on a plate.

Don't be patient. Be active. Get out there and vote. Tell your friends to vote. Make some f*cking noise. Complacent faith in an inevitably positive outcome is how Democrats lose.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:24:34 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#259681: Nov 2nd 2018 at 9:25:11 AM

Don't pick and choose what part of the post you're going to respond to.

I think we can wait four days without wringing our hands about early voting.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#259682: Nov 2nd 2018 at 9:29:05 AM

I've read 2 or 3 articles on 538 that suggest Democrats will do quite well in many Governor races, including chances to make gains in red states. So there's a bonus.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#259683: Nov 2nd 2018 at 9:32:11 AM

[up][up] You say that like that other part actually changes anything.

It doesn't. Democrats need to be doing everything they can to win this election, and they need to keep doing it until voting booths close on November 6th. If those early voting numbers make you anxious? Good. Let that be a motivator to get out there and keep fighting.

Democrats should be anxious about winning elections, because that anxiety is what drives people to do what it takes to win elections. Complacency doesn't get votes. Action does.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:33:19 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#259684: Nov 2nd 2018 at 9:48:33 AM

It does change things, because "be patient for four days" is a perfectly reasonable suggestion if you're already doing what you can. Spending the intervening time worrying about what the early voting numbers could possibly mean and assuming the worst is not, in fact, going to help.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#259685: Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:16:00 AM

The thing with early voting is that it should be factored into the polls, the people voting early are being polled and counted, the early voting numbers should be already being factored into increased democratic turnout.

So if things are going right we may see polls improve for Dems over the next few days, as early voters get polled and are factored in and cause an increased turnout to be considered.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#259686: Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:24:26 AM

Four days to wait can be four days to act.

What it boils down to is this: any time you find yourself going, "Oh no, what if we don't win?" you should be asking yourself, "What can I be doing to help us win?"

What you should not be doing is going, "Nah, we got this. It's cool. Nothing to worry about here." In politics, "We got this," is a self-defeating prophecy.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Nov 2nd 2018 at 11:24:58 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#259687: Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:26:19 AM

Thing is nobody was saying that, if anything the “we got this” lot would be the people saying that the early voting numbers are good, people might relax upon hearing that, upon hearing that the numbers might mean nothing they will realise that they still need to get out the vote.

Edited by Silasw on Nov 2nd 2018 at 5:26:59 PM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#259688: Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:28:17 AM

[up]

I think we can wait four days without wringing our hands about early voting. Be patient, intelligence and common decency will win in the end.

Don't be patient. Wring your hands, be worried, get active, and help us win the election. That is what I'm saying.

This rhetoric that the good guys will win if we just hold out for a hero needs to end.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Nov 2nd 2018 at 11:29:58 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#259689: Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:37:58 AM

Here's my thoughts on this. Yes, it looks like we've got a very good shot of getting the House. However, there are still too many uncertainties. The Republicans still have a slim chance of keeping the House, which is still a chance. And there are any number of things such as Trump motivating enough of his base or a systematic polling error to tilt things in their favor. So regardless of how good our chances might seem, we still shouldn't be resting on our laurels.

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#259690: Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:46:21 AM

I’m just gonna recommend that everyone look up the races you care most about and/or the closest senate or governor races, and check out their campaign website. You don’t have to live in state to phone bank and help increase turnout by reminding democrats to vote.

Ludlow Since: Apr, 2013
#259691: Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:52:49 AM

I've already voted, and I don't take kindly to the implication that thats not enough and I need to be making some herculean feat of activism to be seen as contributing. Some of us are quiet people, Tobias.

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#259692: Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:54:27 AM

ultimately its the vote that matters,everything else is an optional extra

Edited by Ultimatum on Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:54:42 AM

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#259693: Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:56:44 AM

[up][up]I understand you feeling irritated by the... enthusiasm of Tobias’ comment. But phone banking for half an hour or an hour isn’t a Herculean effort. It’s really pretty easy- you’re just calling people and reminding them to vote Tuesday.

Typically at this point, democratic candidates are calling all the local democratic voters to get out the vote; odds of talking to an angry republican voter are slim to none. I really strongly recommending phone banking if you can, even if it’s just once. I’m not allowed to do any campaigning because of my externship :(

Edited by wisewillow on Nov 2nd 2018 at 1:58:05 PM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#259694: Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:57:56 AM

I'd say that if you're not doing what you can, do what you can and be patient; if you're doing what you can, be patient. Being anxious and spending days worrying isn't going to help. The Yerkes-Dodson law doesn't apply to electoral outcomes.

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#259695: Nov 2nd 2018 at 11:56:09 AM

I've already voted, and I don't take kindly to the implication that thats not enough and I need to be making some herculean feat of activism to be seen as contributing. Some of us are quiet people, Tobias.

I don't take kindly to Donald Trump being President. Which is why I've been canvassing on weekends despite being a quiet person. I do it because I'm freaked out by the possibility that the vaunted "Blue Wave" might just be another delusional electoral fantasy, just like the Blue Wall. And frankly, the Republicans holding the House and Senate this year is a scenario that is intolerable to me.

Which is why I maintain that anyone else who finds themselves looking at the numbers and going, "What if we don't win this?!" should take a moment to look up their local branch and see if there's anything they can do to help shift the numbers towards blue. It's not over until the last polling station closes.

Useless optimism doesn't win elections.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Nov 2nd 2018 at 12:58:29 PM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#259696: Nov 2nd 2018 at 12:12:25 PM

Georgia court rules that that recently naturalized citizens whose voter registrations were listed as pending must be allowed to vote.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/midterms-2018-countdown/index.html

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
DrunkenNordmann from Exile Since: May, 2015
#259697: Nov 2nd 2018 at 12:26:56 PM

So, does anyone know if that counts as trademark infringement? note 

We learn from history that we do not learn from history
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#259698: Nov 2nd 2018 at 12:37:43 PM

Former CIA Director John Brennan endorsed Texas senate candidate Beto O'Rourke over Ted Cruz. "I believe Beto O'Rourke is the type of individual Texans need in the U.S. Senate to represent their best interests," Brennan tweeted. "He has the integrity, intellect, and character that is in short supply in Congress." The statement marks the first time Brennan has ever endorsed a candidate in a midterm election. (NBC News)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/midterms-2018-4-days-november-6-n930251

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#259699: Nov 2nd 2018 at 1:07:40 PM

[up][up]HBO didn't take kindly to it. "We were not aware of this messaging and would prefer our trademark not be misappropriated for political purposes." https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/hbo-responds-to-trumps-game-of-thrones-tweet.html

speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#259700: Nov 2nd 2018 at 1:13:05 PM

Trump has a history of doing this. Remember when he played songs from bands at his rallies, only to be told "Hey we didn't give you permission to use them and we really don't want to be associated with you. Please cut it out, m'kay?"

EDIT: A couple of bombshell articles today. Unfortunate they had to drop on Friday instead of earlier in the week, but hopefully people still see them:

Michael Cohen Says Trump Repeatedly Used Racist Language Before His Presidency

Extensive New Report Breaks Down Specifics of Multiple Potential Trump Campaign Crimes

Edited by speedyboris on Nov 2nd 2018 at 3:18:00 AM


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