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Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#257251: Oct 9th 2018 at 9:43:23 AM

UN Ambassador appointments put the masses to sleep, they don't rile up a base ahead of the Midterms. This is of minimal to no electoral consequence, unless Trump appoints a blatant white nationalist/rapist/etc. And considering that she's only leaving the post at the end of the year....

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Robrecht Your friendly neighbourhood Regent from The Netherlands Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: They can't hide forever. We've got satellites.
Your friendly neighbourhood Regent
#257252: Oct 9th 2018 at 9:44:11 AM

[up]x4 I think that expecting women to take sole responsibility in making sure they do not get raped is what put us in the current mess in the first place.

If the kind of men who would commit sexual assault are prone to 'not listen' voluntarily, then maybe it's about goddamn time that they were made to listen.

Edited by Robrecht on Oct 9th 2018 at 6:45:11 PM

Angry gets shit done.
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#257253: Oct 9th 2018 at 9:46:55 AM

Yeah, it's fucked up to put the responsibility of sexual assault prevention on women when they're by and large the victims. We're never going to become a better culture until men accept accountability for what they do and try to teach other men to be better and do the same.

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#257254: Oct 9th 2018 at 9:57:02 AM

So it seems that the Kavanaugh bump is dead (if it were ever really alive).

On October 04-07 2018 voters favored Democrats 51% to the Republican's 42%.

For enthusiasm, on October 04-07 40% of Democrats were very enthusiastic and 29% of Republicans are very enthusiastic. Looks like my prediction was right, Republicans seem to have gotten complacent due to Kavanaugh being chosen.

Personally, I have to say that this is making me look forward to the midterms even more.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 9th 2018 at 12:56:34 PM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#257255: Oct 9th 2018 at 9:59:43 AM

Generally speaking, what I've been reading in broad terms is that the Democrats' chances of taking back the House are about as good as before, while Republicans have a better chance of keeping the Senate the way it is or making a few gains in comparison. This is keeping in mind that taking back the Senate in 2018 was always a longshot to begin with.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#257256: Oct 9th 2018 at 10:15:13 AM

The Senate race is more because of NJ than anything else, though.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#257257: Oct 9th 2018 at 10:24:00 AM

NJ looks to have stabilised, it’s just a very bad map. If the Dems win all races they are predicted to win then they’ll likely make one gain or break even, thing is they’re only just predicted as more likely to win in several races, so there’s a high chance of one loss where a win is expected.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#257258: Oct 9th 2018 at 11:13:13 AM

... I assume NJ is short for the state of New Jersey? How's that relevant for the Senate elections? (I may have missed whatever memo that explained that.)

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#257259: Oct 9th 2018 at 11:15:22 AM

https://whatthefuckjusthappenedtoday.com/2018/10/09/day-628/

Day 628: Hidden genius.

1/ Rick Gates requested proposals in 2016 from an Israeli company to create fake online identities and use social media manipulation to gather intelligence in order to defeat Republican primary race opponents, as well as Hillary Clinton. Gates joined the Trump campaign along with Paul Manafort. Both have been indicted on multiple charges of financial fraud and tax evasion. One proposal from the company, known as Psy-Group, called for the creation of fake online personas to target and persuade 5,000 delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention by attacking Ted Cruz. Another called for opposition research and "complementary intelligence activities" aimed at Clinton and her close allies. There is no evidence that the Trump campaign acted on the proposals, but Psy-Group's owner Joel Zamel did meet with Trump Jr. in August 2016. (New York Times)

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/08/us/politics/rick-gates-psy-group-trump.html

2/ Nikki Haley resigned as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and will leave at the end of the year. Trump said that Haley informed him about six months ago that she would "take a break" at the end of her first two years. Haley said she doesn't plan to run for president against Trump in 2020 and will support Trump's re-election. Trump plans to name a successor in two to three weeks (New York Times / Washington Post / Politico / Axios / NBC News / CNN)

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/09/nikki-haley-resigns-884156

After announcing her resignation, Haley called Jared Kushner a "hidden genius that no one understands." She added: "We're a better country because [Jared and Ivanka Trump are] in this administration." (The Hill / Axios)

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/410552-haley-calls-jared-kushner-trumps-hidden-genius

Who The Fuck Has Left The Trump Administration. A timeline of all the departures so far… (WTFJHT Community Forum)

https://talk.whatthefuckjusthappenedtoday.com/t/who-the-fuck-has-left-the-trump-administration/908

poll/ 54% of likely voters say they support the Democrat in their district while 41% back the Republican in a generic ballot. 62% of Democrats say they're enthusiastic to vote while 52% of Republicans are excited to vote. (CNN)

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html

Don't forget…

Day 621: Trump inherited his family's wealth through fraud and questionable tax schemes, receiving the equivalent today of at least $413 million from his father's real estate empire. Trump has repeatedly claimed that "I built what I build myself." Trump and his siblings used fake corporations to hide financial gifts from his parents, which helped his father claim millions in tax deductions. Trump also helped his parents undervalue their real estate holdings by hundreds of millions of dollars when filing their tax returns. In total, Fred and Mary Trump transferred more than a $1 billion in wealth to their children and paid a total of $52.2 million in taxes (about 5%) instead of the $550+ million they should have owed under the 55% tax rate imposed on gifts and inheritances. Trump also "earned" $200,000 a year in today's dollars starting at age 3 from his father's companies. After college, Trump started receiving the equivalent of $1 million a year, which increased to $5 million a year when he was in his 40s and 50s. Trump has refused to release his income tax returns, breaking with decades of practice by past presidents. There is no time limit on civil fines for tax fraud. [Editor's note: This is a must read. An abstract summary does not suffice.] (New York Times)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-schemes-fred-trump.html

Day 627: A U.N. report on the effects of climate change predicts a strong risk of an environmental crises much sooner than expected. The report finds that the atmosphere could warm by as much as 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels by 2040 if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, which would cause sea-levels to rise, intensify droughts, wildfires, and poverty, and cause a mass die-off of coral reefs. To prevent 2.7 degrees of warming, greenhouse pollution must be reduced by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, and fully eliminated by 2050. The use of coal as an electricity source would have to drop from nearly 40% today to between 1 and 7% by 2050. Renewable energy would have to increase to about 67%. Trump has mocked the science of human-caused climate change, vowing to increase the burning of coal and intends to withdraw from the 2015 Paris agreement. The world is already more than halfway to the 2.7-degree mark and "there is no documented historic precedent" for the scale of changes required, the report said. (New York Times / Washington Post)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/08/world-has-only-years-get-climate-change-under-control-un-scientists-say/

Notables.

The Trump administration will remove a federal ban on the summer sales of high-ethanol gasoline blends. The policy change would allow year-round sales of gasoline blends with up to 15% ethanol – 5% higher than typical blends. The EPA currently bans high-ethanol blends during the summer because they contribute to smog on hot days. The move is seen as a reward to Sen. Chuck Grassley, who chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee and presided over Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court. (CBS News)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-plans-to-allow-sales-of-gas-with-higher-ethanol-blend/

Trump apologized "on behalf of our nation" to Kavanaugh "for the terrible pain and suffering" that he and his family endured during the confirmation process. Trump claimed that Kavanaugh was "proven innocent" and said that the confirmation process was based on "lies and deception." (NBC News / ABC News)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-apologizes-behalf-nation-kavanaugh-says-he-was-proven-innocent-n917956

More than a thousand noncitizens may have been registered to vote in California due to a processing error. The California Department of Motor Vehicles admitted that a mistake had caused as many as 1,500 noncitizens to be registered to vote in the state. A Canadian citizen and legal permanent resident of the U.S. first brought attention to the mistake after he received a letter in the mail telling him he was registered to vote. (ABC News / Los Angeles Times)

https://abcnews.go.com/US/1500-noncitizens-registered-vote-california-dmv-error/story?id=58377069

Trump's trade war with China has cost Ford $1 billion. The automaker may have to cut production of some models and potentially eliminate some U.S. jobs as a result. (NBC News)

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/trump-s-tariffs-have-already-cost-ford-1b-now-it-n917756

Kanye West will visit the White House to discuss job opportunities for former convicts with Trump and Jared Kushner. West also hopes to discuss increasing manufacturing jobs in the Chicago area. (New York Times / Reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-kanye/kanye-heads-to-west-wing-lunch-with-trump-idUSKCN1MJ1IG

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#257260: Oct 9th 2018 at 11:16:04 AM

Vox has a very important article, Register to vote: October 9 is the registration deadline for 13 states.

I would highly recommend anyone who hasn't registered to vote yet to check the article and see when their states' voting registration deadline is and plan around that. Voting is important and thus if you can, you should.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#257261: Oct 9th 2018 at 11:23:39 AM

@Marq, under these conditions, a Republican running for Senate in NJ would never have a prayer. The state is too blue and hates Trump's guts. However, the Democratic incumbent has been facing numerous accusations of corruption (last year a trial ended in a mistrial), and a few recent polls had him just a few points ahead of his GOP opponent.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Larkmarn Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Hello, I love you
#257262: Oct 9th 2018 at 11:26:09 AM

Hrm, I wonder if I'm actually registered. I sent in everything but haven't gotten a confirmation.

Found a Youtube Channel with political stances you want to share? Hop on over to this page and add them.
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#257263: Oct 9th 2018 at 11:28:17 AM

It's worth mentioning that while the Democrats seem to have a worse chance of taking the Senate now than they did before the whole Kavanaugh thing, that might not have anything to do with Kavanaugh, but rather just that there hasn't been a lot of polling in states like North Dakota, so we didn't know just how bad that race was going for the Democrats before.

Edited by Gilphon on Oct 9th 2018 at 2:27:55 PM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#257264: Oct 9th 2018 at 12:06:26 PM

Yeah it’s unclear if things have actully changed, it’s may just be that North Dakota was always a likely loss and we just didn’t have the polling to call it until now.

Also there’s the reduced uncertainty, 538 account for the fact that weird shit could happen and change things dramatically, the more time goes by without such stuff happening the more likely the standard outcome becomes, so for the senate Republican chances will automatically go up with nothing changing, because the possibility of something big shaking things up reduces naturally as we get closer to Election Day.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#257265: Oct 9th 2018 at 1:17:35 PM

CNN seems to think the primary reason for Haley's resignation is that she and her husband are short on cash. She's got two kids in college, numerous debts and her position doesn't pull in particularly high salaries. So she's probably going off to work as a consultant for 7-figures.

Other theories include putting distance between herself and Trump in preparation for a 2024 WH run, or being forced out by Pompeo and Bolton (but considering that they were surprised by her announcement, I think that's unlikely).

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/nikki-haley-resignation-donald-trump/index.html

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#257266: Oct 9th 2018 at 1:29:41 PM

I’m also seeing speculation that she’s after a promotion, if Graham becomes AG after the midterms she could take up his senate seat.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#257267: Oct 9th 2018 at 2:09:26 PM

What is he trying to say here?

The paid D.C. protesters are now ready to REALLY protest because they haven’t gotten their checks - in other words, they weren’t paid! Screamers in Congress, and outside, were far too obvious - less professional than anticipated by those paying (or not paying) the bills!

He’s the real life version of Talkative Loon

Edited by megaeliz on Oct 9th 2018 at 5:14:43 AM

Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#257268: Oct 9th 2018 at 2:10:51 PM

He's saying that a bunch of Astroturfed protesters are actually going to protest because they aren't getting paid.

Leviticus 19:34
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#257269: Oct 9th 2018 at 2:13:03 PM

Its the whole "Soros pays protestors" lie again.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#257270: Oct 9th 2018 at 2:14:00 PM

[up][up] So, were they paid or not?

Wait, so did he take all of the jokes about not getting our checks from George Soros seriously? And now he thinks we’re all going to protest because of that!

Edited by megaeliz on Oct 9th 2018 at 5:15:44 AM

nightwyrm_zero Since: Apr, 2010
#257271: Oct 9th 2018 at 2:14:49 PM

Then he should be expecting a bunch of his contractors protesting outside the WH....

Deadbeatloser22 from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#257272: Oct 9th 2018 at 2:21:27 PM

You have to remember that he thinks everyone loves him, so the only reasons anyone could possibly be protesting against him is because someone is paying them, has a gun to their head, or both.

"Yup. That tasted purple."
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#257273: Oct 9th 2018 at 2:23:47 PM

So, were they paid or not?

They're paid protestors but because they've been cheated out of payment they're there to protest that fact instead of protesting anything that Trump has done.

Yes, it's insane and makes no sense but that's Trump, our modern fascists aren't too smart.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 9th 2018 at 5:23:47 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
CookingCat Since: Jul, 2018
#257274: Oct 9th 2018 at 2:28:12 PM

[up]x15 Why do you have to remind us that the deadline for 2.7 is shrinking? Why is it shrinking?

Edited by CookingCat on Oct 9th 2018 at 2:38:44 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#257275: Oct 9th 2018 at 2:32:55 PM

Why do you have to remind us that the deadline for 2.7 is getting sooner? WHY IS IT GETTING SOONER?!!!!

I really wish that you would use quoteblocks, arrows just aren't reliable past five posts.

The reason I have to remind everyone is because it matters, if someone isn't aware of their state's voting deadline then they may miss it and if that happens to enough people then it could have catastrophic consequences. Every little bit helps.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang

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