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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Doesn't sound like an argument to me. If anything, it sounds more like, "If Trump defied the odds last time, then he'll probably do it this time too."
Your argument is critically flawed when you misunderstand the nature of the data you're trying to interpret. Most of these polls (though annoyingly, unlike the approval trackers or those from the presidential election) are based on 3-5 day cycles before they're being published. So before talking about what the trend is showing:
- You need to remember that it won't have yet responded to any changes in the environment.
- The models incorporate a trend of regression towards the mean (if you look at the approval polls for Trump you'd note that 538 always predicts convergence over the long term that hasn't happened). They always assume a tightening race.
- Older polls in models also get reduced in significance over time or dropped entirely—this doesn't mean that new data has come out saying that Republicans are doing better, just that old data saying the opposite is weighted slightly less. Useful to bear in mind, sometimes.
Edited by RainehDaze on Oct 6th 2018 at 8:13:52 PM
Goddamn right, I registered to vote a week ago and I can't wait for the midterm. I hope the worst electoral results possible happen to the Republicans, it's the least that they deserve.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangBeing in the military, I haven't voted at a polling place since I went to boot camp. My ballot got mailed in yesterday.
Edited by BlueNinja0 on Oct 6th 2018 at 1:21:26 AM
That’s the epitome of privilege right there, not considering armed nazis a threat to your life. - SilaswTrump has gotten by through life because no one around him has ever criticized or stood up to him in a meaningful way. He's an overgrown Spoiled Brat.
Disgusted, but not surprisedNot only that. Roe v. Wade's days are numbered, too. And Kavanaugh's only 53, so we'll be stuck with him for decades to come. Our only hope is impeachment, which won't happen unless we retake the house, and that won't happen unless the Democrats can convince their voter base to get their dicks and/or vaginas out of their hands and vote. And honestly, we can bellow and shout about how vital this midterm election is until we're blue in the face, but all of that pales in comparison to the power of voter apathy.
Oh, yeah, and the last time a Supreme Court justice was impeached was 1804.
We're fucked. We're completely fucked.
No beer?! But if there's no beer, then there's no beef or beans!
