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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#256951: Oct 6th 2018 at 12:09:03 PM

[up]Doesn't sound like an argument to me. If anything, it sounds more like, "If Trump defied the odds last time, then he'll probably do it this time too."

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#256952: Oct 6th 2018 at 12:11:13 PM

Your argument is critically flawed when you misunderstand the nature of the data you're trying to interpret. Most of these polls (though annoyingly, unlike the approval trackers or those from the presidential election) are based on 3-5 day cycles before they're being published. So before talking about what the trend is showing:

  1. You need to remember that it won't have yet responded to any changes in the environment.
  2. The models incorporate a trend of regression towards the mean (if you look at the approval polls for Trump you'd note that 538 always predicts convergence over the long term that hasn't happened). They always assume a tightening race.
  3. Older polls in models also get reduced in significance over time or dropped entirely—this doesn't mean that new data has come out saying that Republicans are doing better, just that old data saying the opposite is weighted slightly less. Useful to bear in mind, sometimes.

Edited by RainehDaze on Oct 6th 2018 at 8:13:52 PM

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#256953: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:01:14 PM

Just got a notification from Reuters. Sounds like the confirmation vote is underway, and he's in.

No word yet who voted how.

Edited by sgamer82 on Oct 6th 2018 at 2:04:33 AM

Bur from Flyover Country (Living Relic) Relationship Status: Having tea with Cthulhu
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#256955: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:05:23 PM

The Republicans have a lot to answer for.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Voltron64 Since: Jul, 2016
#256956: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:12:33 PM

[up] We'll make them pay. Whatever it takes, we will make them pay.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#256957: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:14:49 PM

Murkowski didn’t vote for or again, just present. I guess she feared Manchin would vote against if she made him the deciding vote.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#256958: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:15:38 PM

Which is essentially the same as a yes vote, if so.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#256959: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:18:02 PM

Don't count on a GOP Congresscritter to do the right thing. That road usually leads to disappointment.

Disgusted, but not surprised
speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#256960: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:18:14 PM

Symbolically, this is as disgusting as when Trump was elected. It basically is a giant fuck you to the Me Too movement.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#256961: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:18:17 PM

The sad thing is the vote was already decided yesterday. This was more of a formality than anything.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#256962: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:18:52 PM

Yeah, she’s clearly been authorised to vote no as long as the nomination wasn’t at risk, the moment it was she fell in line.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#256963: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:20:04 PM

We'll make them pay. Whatever it takes, we will make them pay.

Goddamn right, I registered to vote a week ago and I can't wait for the midterm. I hope the worst electoral results possible happen to the Republicans, it's the least that they deserve.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#256964: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:20:43 PM

I already sent my mail ballot. Straight Democratic ticket...granted that's easier in California.

Did I mention before how glad I am that the asinine Prop 9 was ruled out by California's Supreme Court?

Edited by M84 on Oct 6th 2018 at 4:21:09 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
BlueNinja0 The Mod with the Migraine from Taking a left at Albuquerque Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
The Mod with the Migraine
#256965: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:21:44 PM

Like an American's vote don't count as one, but is counted as points, depending on said American's standing. Poor and stupid American's vote has less points while rich and smart American's vote has more points.
In an actual legal sense, of course this is nonsense. In a general way to look at elections ... well, I don't think he's far off. Poor people and minorities usually don't vote as much - not because their votes are worth less, but because of all the barriersnote  put in their way; this means that on average they don't get as much of a vote. The system is really tilted in favor of rural voters more so than white ones, but those two demographics have a great deal of overlap that magnifies votes. Thanks to Citizens United, rich people can spend pretty much as much money as they want on advertising for candidates, which due to how fickle and short-sighted humans are, also has a greater effect on getting certain ballot measures passed or politicians elected, so yes, on average the vote of a millionaire is worth more than the vote of the single mom working at Wal-mart.

Being in the military, I haven't voted at a polling place since I went to boot camp. My ballot got mailed in yesterday.

Learn probabilities, 7 out of 10 odds
My math brain says this is good. But my D&D brain is busy panicking in the corner and waiting for the critical fumble.
How likely do you think will women who would normally not vote turn up this time around? Or men who actually care about the notion of the government being taken over by sexual predators and those who support them?
A headline I saw on Facebook was, "Stop expecting Republican women to vote against their rapists." Because they don't; they'll keep voting for rapists like Kavanaugh, Trump, and Moore, right up until their cozy lives are actually disrupted.
it sounds more like, "If Trump defied the odds last time, then he'll probably do it this time too."
Trump has been defying both odds and social norms since the election started in 2015; this is in no small part because no one in the GOP wants to stand up to him and risk being a decent person.

Edited by BlueNinja0 on Oct 6th 2018 at 1:21:26 AM

That’s the epitome of privilege right there, not considering armed nazis a threat to your life. - Silasw
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#256966: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:26:21 PM

Trump has gotten by through life because no one around him has ever criticized or stood up to him in a meaningful way. He's an overgrown Spoiled Brat.

Disgusted, but not surprised
kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#256967: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:28:15 PM

I'd also like to point out that Trump got in because of the Electoral College. The midterms don't have that excuse.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#256968: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:34:04 PM

Seeing reports that the vote was 50-48. Was that the expected result?

CookingCat Since: Jul, 2018
#256969: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:36:36 PM

Is Net Neutrality officially finished in the US until the Democrats get the Supreme Court back now?

Edited by CookingCat on Oct 6th 2018 at 1:38:52 AM

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#256971: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:47:30 PM

[up][up] no more than it's already been. Remember the supreme Court undoing anything relies on a case reaching them.

TyeDyeWildebeest Unreasonably Quirky from Big Rock Candy Mountain Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: How does it feel to treat me like you do?
Unreasonably Quirky
#256972: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:50:35 PM

Is Net Neutrality officially finished in the US until the Democrats get the Supreme Court back now?

Not only that. Roe v. Wade's days are numbered, too. And Kavanaugh's only 53, so we'll be stuck with him for decades to come. Our only hope is impeachment, which won't happen unless we retake the house, and that won't happen unless the Democrats can convince their voter base to get their dicks and/or vaginas out of their hands and vote. And honestly, we can bellow and shout about how vital this midterm election is until we're blue in the face, but all of that pales in comparison to the power of voter apathy.

Oh, yeah, and the last time a Supreme Court justice was impeached was 1804.

We're fucked. We're completely fucked.

No beer?! But if there's no beer, then there's no beef or beans!
kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#256973: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:54:24 PM

[up]Oh come off it. The odds of getting the House are already in our favor, and Kavanugh getting in just makes it that much more likely. And we've already had signs of record high Dem enthusiasm.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#256974: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:54:24 PM

[up][up]Break out the "End is Nigh" placards

Edited by sgamer82 on Oct 6th 2018 at 2:56:52 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#256975: Oct 6th 2018 at 1:55:45 PM

Didn’t the mods already issue a warning against doomsaying here?

Disgusted, but not surprised

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