TVTropes Now available in the app store!
Open

Follow TV Tropes

Following

The General US Politics Thread

Go To

Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines before posting here.

Rumor-based, fear-mongering and/or inflammatory statements that damage the quality of the thread will be thumped. Off-topic posts will also be thumped. Repeat offenders may be suspended.

If time spent moderating this thread remains a distraction from moderation of the wiki itself, the thread will need to be locked. We want to avoid that, so please follow the forum rules when posting here.


In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.

Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#256826: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:36:12 PM

The choice is "take the wrong position when it ultimately doesn't matter" or "risk someone who'll take the wrong position when it does matter." Again, in a generally close environment. Probability is a fickle thing and politics is a filthy business; cynicism has a place.

@The Wanted: It's unlikely that the GOP will hold the house, but they very easily could make gains in the senate. Like, we're now at 7:9 odds in favor of the GOP retaining control over the senate, and it's highly plausible they'd gain a net seat if the election were held today.

~45% chance the GOP gains a seat. There's a reason I'm focusing on margins here. [lol]

Edited by RainehDaze on Oct 5th 2018 at 2:37:04 PM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#256827: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:37:34 PM

If you do evil because you're trying to appeal to evil, you're still evil.

Appealing to scumbag voters does not make you less of a scumbag for it.

If you're not going to vote for good, there's no point.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Oct 5th 2018 at 6:41:37 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#256828: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:39:37 PM

I think it matters when the Senate is basically 49:51 D:R when there's two defections and 48:52 when there aren't. Needing a third defection to stall anything is catastrophic.

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#256829: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:41:31 PM

Even if we completely disregard all basic human decency, which in my opinion is more important because there are limits to pragmatism over principles, a spot on the Supreme Court for the next 30 years is worth more than a 6 year Senate seat.

And again, this isn’t a military spending bill, this isn’t Gorsuch replacing Scalia. This is a goddamn attempted rapist, Republican hack who lied repeatedly under oath. Why the hell should West Virginia Democrats show up for Manchin?

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#256830: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:41:36 PM

Is throwing away any future *possibility* of ever making another stand or any hope of challenging any future legislation worth changing his vote and making no difference now?

Is it worth throwing away any future resistance to any immigration vote? Any healthcare bill? Further opposition to the wall? Anything and everything after this?

Bearing in mind that his vote changed absolutely nothing.

Is this the hill you really wanna die on and lose your ability to fight back against anything else that might happen?

Especially when if we get a chance to impeach we'll need his seat too?

Edited by LeGarcon on Oct 5th 2018 at 9:45:27 AM

Oh really when?
TheWanted Since: Oct, 2013
#256831: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:42:43 PM

I make the prediction on voter enthusiasm. Republicans were reminded this week of why they need to vote and not rest on their laurels. The Democrats tactics of trying to gin up support from their base over this circus is going to backfire.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#256832: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:44:05 PM

The idea West Virginians are going to be persuaded en masse to switch their votes from Manchin to the Republicans is a Democratic comfort fiction.

But a fiction.

His position wouldn't have moved that much.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#256833: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:44:17 PM

I make the prediction on voter enthusiasm. Republicans were reminded this week of why they need to vote and not rest on their laurels. The Democrats tactics of trying to gin up support from their base over this circus is going to backfire.

So, no basis at all. The whole reason Repub enthusiasm went up is gone.

a spot on the Supreme Court for the next 30 years is worth more than a 6 year Senate seat.

Perfectly reasonable if Manchin was the decisive vote. He's not.

The idea West Virginians are going to be persuaded en masse to switch their votes from Manchin to the Republicans is a Democratic comfort fiction.

But a fiction.

His position wouldn't have moved that much.

The threat of it is quite real.

Edited by RainehDaze on Oct 5th 2018 at 2:47:24 PM

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#256834: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:44:22 PM

[up][up][up] Listen, as far as the senate goes your prediction is definitely plausible. It's still plausible when it comes to the house, but fairly unlikely, maybe 1:4, and I'll grant you those odds aren't something I'd bet against.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Oct 5th 2018 at 9:44:03 AM

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#256835: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:45:32 PM

Right, I forgot, your base definitely want to turn up for you when you never try to accomplish anything and roll over and let yourself be steamrolled all the time. That’s how winning works, isn’t it?

Oh, wait, what was that whole 2010 midterms and Republican obstructionism thing? That totally didn’t work, man, they lost so hard in 2014 and 2016; we better just shush and stop yelling at the bad men or people won’t like us.

Edited by wisewillow on Oct 5th 2018 at 9:45:04 AM

TheWanted Since: Oct, 2013
#256836: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:47:41 PM

It isn't gone. A win is a huge moral boost. This was the October Surprise for Republicans.

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#256837: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:49:43 PM

Okay, thanks for the speculation, doomsayer, have you checked your voter registration and made sure every single person you know is registered?

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#256838: Oct 5th 2018 at 6:50:01 PM

What you're looking for at this stage is something to give people a reason to get out and vote.

"We just confirmed the latest SC justice" is the antithesis of that. It's more likely to galvanise your opposition than your base.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#256839: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:04:20 PM

[up][up][up]An October Suprise is typically something manufactured in the short term to give one's party a boost. This is something the GOP's been working on a long-ass time that's almost guaranteed to give the other party a boost.

Edited by kkhohoho on Oct 5th 2018 at 9:07:04 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#256840: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:04:22 PM

If Manchin is the 51st vote than it’s a whatever, it sucks and he sucks but he’s allowed a pass at that point, but if he’s the 50th vote than there should be hell the pay, because at that point it’s on his shoulders. He’d still be able to redeem himself, by voting to impeach Bret if the Dems make it to 66 Senate seats one day.

Oh and can we get a mod in here to start thumping all the pointless doomsaying about how this ensures total Republican victory in novemember, dear god, the vote hasn’t even happened yet.

I’m still gonna cross my fingers that Manchin faces enough backlash from democrats in West Virginia that he changes his mind, hopefully at the last second after the absent Republicans senator has decided he doesn't need to turn up because Manchin is voting yes.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#256841: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:04:50 PM

I’m going to drop the previous discussion now, but a final comment.

In general, it is sometimes necessary to put pragmatism before principles. However, there are also limits. And it is deeply, deeply hurtful and traumatic to see people say that women’s trauma doesn’t matter, that all the stories from sexual assault and rape survivors sitting in on Capitol Hill and in Senate offices don’t matter, because Joe Manchin keeping his seat (when he has a decent lead already) is more important than they are. I don’t think you had any bad intentions here, but think about the impact of what you are saying. Think about what message it sends to women and sexual assault survivors.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#256842: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:06:17 PM

[up][up]

Oh and can we get a mod in here to start thumping all the pointless doomsaying about how this ensures total Republican victory in novemember

Especially when there's a lot of evidence pointing to the opposite. Okay, not total Dem victory, but you get the idea.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#256843: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:06:33 PM

I mean, no one said that though.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#256844: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:07:38 PM

Yeah as much as I’m for pragmatism and practicality I couldn’t fault any women in West Virginia if they felt they couldn’t vote for Manchin after this, nor do I want the DNC spending money on him instead of possible gains in states where senators would actully vote against shit like this.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Balmung Since: Oct, 2011
#256845: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:09:02 PM

As noted earlier, he was the 50th vote. He announced his intention to confirm Kavanaugh before Collins announced hers and became the 51st.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#256846: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:11:30 PM

[up]I thought it was right after.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#256847: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:11:32 PM

I mean, I'd find it pretty likely they talk about these things before actually announcing them.

Him announcing before her, doesn't mean he decided before her.

Edited by LSBK on Oct 5th 2018 at 9:14:01 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#256848: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:11:38 PM

The votes aren’t in yet so no he hasn’t been the 50th vote, we have no idea at what point Collins or he decided which way to vote, just which order they announced in.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#256849: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:12:28 PM

@kkhohoho: That's not what models are predicting either; rather we see a decoupling of the House and Senate midterms, with the GOP having a pretty great year in the senate and a bad year in the House.

I've said it before, but the structure of the senate is a huge anchor weighing down on the American political system, overwhelmingly favoring rural whites (~80% of the senate electorate is white) in a nation that is increasingly diverse.

TheWanted Since: Oct, 2013
#256850: Oct 5th 2018 at 7:12:37 PM
Thumped: Please see The Rules . This is a warning that this post is the sort of thing that will get you suspended.

Total posts: 417,856
Top