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MrHellboy The Shadow from A world of my own Since: Dec, 2017 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
The Shadow
#256751: Oct 5th 2018 at 2:32:56 PM

Wasn't it the House the Dems were likely to take back anyway, not the Senate?

The hardest thing in this world is to live in it.
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#256752: Oct 5th 2018 at 2:34:07 PM

Are likely to take back, yes. The chances of taking the Senate are low.

I'd like to see the polls conducted over the next week or so before going woe is me over predictions, though.

3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#256753: Oct 5th 2018 at 2:34:14 PM

[up][up]Yes, the Dems have a incredibly good chance of taking the House and a way less, if still possible, chance on the Senate. On a Senate Map that *hugely* disfavors them.

Edited by 3of4 on Oct 5th 2018 at 11:33:43 AM

"You can reply to this Message!"
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#256754: Oct 5th 2018 at 2:38:58 PM

Odds of getting the Senate are about 30%. So...not great, but not impossible.

And if Manchin does indeed vote Yes and is the deciding vote...well, fuck him. Not that I can do a damn thing about it since I'm not registered in West Virginia.

Edited by M84 on Oct 5th 2018 at 5:42:03 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Blueeyedrat Since: Oct, 2010
#256755: Oct 5th 2018 at 2:39:54 PM

I sent in my absentee ballot yesterday. Both of the candidates for House rep (WA-9) were Democrat. Back in '16, the D incumbent beat an R challenger with ~75% of the vote. This time around, the same challenger didn't even make it out of the primary, being narrowly edged out by a second D candidate.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#256756: Oct 5th 2018 at 2:41:44 PM

It's also a fact that the GOP always, on paper, had the votes to push through anyone they want ever since they literally changed the rules for Gorsuch. The fact that it's still been a hard fight, a hard march is significant in the long run. Yes, if he gets confirmed tomorrow it's a loss. And a huge one at that.

But just like with the Tax Reform, the favor was always on the GOP's side. The Democrats had no actual, hard power to stop it.

I think it's important to remember this. With all three branches in Republicans' hands, any resistance on the Democrats' side should have only ever been symbolic, at best. Yet Trump's more idiotic laws are still beaten down in courts, Congress couldn't break the ACA directly, and the Republicans' prominent failures have, by all appearances, been outweighing their successes, and even the successes have the potential to, if they haven't already, bite theyn in their collective ass.

Edited by sgamer82 on Oct 5th 2018 at 3:41:44 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#256757: Oct 5th 2018 at 2:42:32 PM

Yeah, honestly, blocking Kavanaugh was always a long shot.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#256758: Oct 5th 2018 at 3:10:08 PM

I'm honestly a lot more disgusted with Manchin right now than I am with the Republicans. 'Cynically playing the partisan politics game, even if it means sacrificing your morals' is at least some semblance of a justification. Manchin, however, apparently went 'Even if it's not what will benefit me personally, or what my party or supporters want me to do, I'm going to stay true to what I believe in and put a rapist on the Supreme Court.'

Even Trump looks less monstrous right now, what with him taking the comparative reasonable stance of 'A rapist shouldn't be on the court, but I don't believe that Kavanaugh is a rapist.'

Like, if I was a WV voter, I'd be seriously considering voting for Manchin's opponent, because if there doesn't come a point when doing the right thing trumps partisan concerns, we can't claim the moral high ground.

Edited by Gilphon on Oct 5th 2018 at 6:12:12 AM

Snipertoaster from Mind Your Business (Ten years in the joint) Relationship Status: If it's you, it's okay
#256759: Oct 5th 2018 at 3:11:25 PM

To be honest, I'dve been more surprised if Kavanaugh ended up getting locked out. Considering the GOP, he could've slit someone's throat in broad daylight in the middle of Times Square and they'd still confirm him.

My only prayer is that this makes Democratic voters angry rather than defeated. The worst possible outcome of this is depressing voter turnout for the Dems.

We can choose to be better.
Balmung Since: Oct, 2011
#256760: Oct 5th 2018 at 3:13:48 PM

Are the other conservative justices really that void of principles?
No, they absolutely have principles. And that's the problem - the principles they hold are awful and morally repugnant.

So yes, Kavanaugh will absolutely be able to get other conservative justices on his side if it's to benefit conservatives.

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#256761: Oct 5th 2018 at 3:25:02 PM

> Democratic voters angry rather than defeated.

They'll be dishearted sure as anyone would be,but there will be resolve (hopefully anyway) to continue on

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Larkmarn Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Hello, I love you
#256762: Oct 5th 2018 at 3:29:13 PM

Blowing political capital for a symbolic, but entirely meaningless vote is stupid. Frankly all this hate on Manchin is so hilariously misinformed.

We need our politicians to play the game. Manchin being the 51st vote isn't saying "I don't care if a rapist is on the court," it's saying "I can't control it anyway. May as well not hurt the Dems in the process."

Like, Dems have fucked up in the past. But in a two-party system, I'd rather the guy do the thing that helps the "party of less rape" than the thing that hurts it.

Found a Youtube Channel with political stances you want to share? Hop on over to this page and add them.
kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#256763: Oct 5th 2018 at 3:35:08 PM

[up][up]Hey, I'm a Democrat, and I know I'm sure as hell pissed.

MrHellboy The Shadow from A world of my own Since: Dec, 2017 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
The Shadow
#256764: Oct 5th 2018 at 3:38:22 PM

What the guy above me said.

I'll be voting my ass off this November

The hardest thing in this world is to live in it.
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#256765: Oct 5th 2018 at 3:45:48 PM

It'll take more than voting individually, especially if you live in a safe Democratic area. Donate to candidates who need money, campaign in neighboring districts, phone bank, register voters.

BigMadDraco Since: Mar, 2010 Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
#256766: Oct 5th 2018 at 3:45:51 PM

@Gliphon You're so mad that a rapist is getting on the Supreme Court that you would give more power to the party that's putting a rapist on the Supreme Court? Because if we had two more Joe Munchins we wouldn't be getting a rapist on the Supreme Count because no vote would have ever been called.

MrHellboy The Shadow from A world of my own Since: Dec, 2017 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
The Shadow
#256767: Oct 5th 2018 at 3:58:08 PM

[up][up] Well, I'm disabled, so I can't do ALL of those things, but I do as much as I can from where I am. Every little bit helps

The hardest thing in this world is to live in it.
TVRulezAgain Since: Sep, 2011
#256768: Oct 5th 2018 at 4:05:57 PM

If Manchin loses, and the Republicans maintain control of the Senate, we won't be able to stop Trump's future nominees.

If Manchin wins, and the Democrats retake the Senate, we can stop Trump's nominees from even making it past a committee, regardless of how Manchin votes. Or hell, we could even turn the tables on the GOP by refusing to hold hearings for Trump's nominees.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#256769: Oct 5th 2018 at 4:07:58 PM

Hold hearings that turn into incredibly, incredibly detailed analysis of life stories.

StarOutlaw Since: Nov, 2010
#256770: Oct 5th 2018 at 4:20:31 PM

I feel it's unwise to get hopes up too high in regards to this mess energizing Democrat turnout for the midterms. I hope it's true, but at the same time I can see this as being very wishful thinking to help ease the pain. The polls are helpful, but I'm afraid of getting burned.

Saying this just helps Democrats can look like we're just performing mental gymnastics. I don't think it's as bad as what some conservatives do, but I do feel like sometimes our attitudes may be similar in some ways. Ultimately I still believe the Left over the Right, but that is always due to the Left offering better evidence and arguments. Still, I know how easy it is to be convinced of something you want to be true. I'm just thankful this side isn't as stubborn. Imagine if we ended up defending Al Franken as hard as the right defends Brett.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#256771: Oct 5th 2018 at 4:27:08 PM

Don't give Manchin any credit for this. It wasn't a political game to him. He is constantly cozying up to the Republicans and working against his own party. I do not understand why people try to give him credit.

The guy has done nothing for West Virginia's opiod epidemic, is as Trump cozy as a Democrat can be, and works solely for the benefit of the state's energy barons.

He is an enormous pile of crap.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Oct 5th 2018 at 4:31:22 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#256772: Oct 5th 2018 at 4:28:21 PM

[up] The sad fact is he's still better than the most likely alternative, an actual Republican

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#256773: Oct 5th 2018 at 4:29:55 PM

[up]Sadly, that is probably true.

But the reason he's elected by the Red State of Virginia is because he is a very very very VERY red Democrat.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Oct 5th 2018 at 4:29:57 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
TVRulezAgain Since: Sep, 2011
#256774: Oct 5th 2018 at 4:39:42 PM

Manchin helped save Obamacare, he opposed the GOP Tax Scam, he opposed defunding Planned Parenthood, he opposed Betsy Devos, he's a sponsor of the Keep Families Together Act, while he doesn't have a great environmental record, he does believe in climate change, he opposed the GOP's attacks on the Endangered Species Act, he opposed the Muslim ban, he supports net neutrality, among other things. He's not my favorite, but we need him.

Also, if Manchin wanted to be a Republican, he would have. He's a Democrat up for reelection in a state where Trump won every county. He could have taken the easy way out and switched parties, but he hasn't done that.

MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#256775: Oct 5th 2018 at 4:50:35 PM

Damn Marq, this broke you more than me it seems. The solution isn't assassination, that would only turn Kavanaugh into a martyr which I refuse to let happen. It's packing the courts. I was against it before, but hey, given the GOP have absolutely butchered everything the Supreme Court is supposed to stand for by playing dirty and throwing vulnerable people under the bus, I don't care at all if the democrats play dirty to restore the balance.
Rape and active racism are some of the very few things that would make me flip off any notions of nicety or peaceful interaction; a punch in the face as a "greeting" is the least of what a rapist/racist should expect from me. The former, especially, makes me so sick that I would not give the law a second thought when comes to dealing with such scum.

Now I'm watching a serial rapist who is a racist and misogynist shitstain of a human being being poised to be elected to the highest court in the USA, at the nomination of a complete monster of a president (who is practically a self-admitted rapist himself) and with the willing collaboration of the current dominant party.

And said POTUS's government has screwed up the ecosystem so badly with its deregulation edicts that we've apparently lost our last chance at fixing the damage, thus being left with limiting the eventual impact on the future generations.

And now said POTUS's government has shredded the amity treaty with Iran just because the ICJ called the former out on unilaterally imposing sanctions on the latter for no good reason, which will no doubt worsen already existing tensions between said country and those of its neighbours that it deems as America's lapdogs (i.e. my country).

And there's an apparently-ongoing outbreak of violent assaults by Israeli settlers against Palestinians under the protection of Israeli police/soldiers, likely emboldened by the Trump presidency's unwavering support and acknowledgement of their unilateral claim to Jerusalem as their capital.

And my own country's Crown Prince has been evidently taking pointers from said POTUS as he tightens his authoritarian grip on the nation note  and implements godawful economic "reforms" that make no sense even from a self-serving perspective (the now-cancelled Aramco IPO would've left us at the complete mercy of foreign powers).

And a lot more things that have happened over the past 2 years in relation to the Trump presidency, but which would turn this post into a Wall of Text if I tried to list them all.

And all that is framed by the fact that I've been a victim of bullying for most of my school life until I've finally snapped and violently lashed back at my tormentors after one of the bullies choked me in public as a "joke" (they had to pull me off the bastard). Trump and his ilk are simply immensely more horrible versions of your average bully, and thus the very fact that they have so much power at their hands and continue to get away with all the shit they do hits too close to home for me.

I am not royally pissed; that's too mild a descriptor. I am absolutely fucking livid at the current state of affirs, have been so for quite a while, said lividity is compounded further by my powerlessness to do anything about it, and people here keep insisting that they should maintain the "moral high ground" by sticking to "civil" methods of combating this global menace to humanity and universally ostracize anyone who suggests otherwise.

I think I have more than enough reasons at the moment to feel quite sympathetic to what you'd deem as "extreme" ideas.

Edited by MarqFJA on Oct 5th 2018 at 2:50:41 PM

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

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