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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Mario1995 The Dishonorable from Atlanta Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
The Dishonorable
#256426: Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:08:26 PM
Thumped: This post has been thumped with the mod stick. This means knock it off.
"The devil's got all the good gear. What's God got? The Inspiral Carpets and nuns. Fuck that." - Liam Gallagher
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#256427: Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:09:59 PM

How about saving the pessimism until after the election? There’s little point in being defeatist now.

Edited by KarkatTheDalek on Oct 3rd 2018 at 5:09:26 AM

Oh God! Natural light!
Mario1995 The Dishonorable from Atlanta Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
The Dishonorable
#256428: Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:15:19 PM

[up]I dunno. All the Democratic personalities and pundits I've seen have completely disregarded midterm talk in favor of Kavanaugh because of the stakes being far, far bigger. They've been so gloomy about it that they don't think putting a Democratic Congress will matter in terms of issues like immigration, gay rights and abortion.

Once the court continues to defer to the executive in terms of power, what's going to stop the courts from stripping a Democratic Congress of its powers? (It happened in Venezuela last year.)

Edited by Mario1995 on Oct 3rd 2018 at 5:15:43 AM

"The devil's got all the good gear. What's God got? The Inspiral Carpets and nuns. Fuck that." - Liam Gallagher
tricksterson Never Trust from Behind you with an icepick Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#256430: Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:20:14 PM

[up][up] That’s really, really hard to do in our legal system.

Edited by megaeliz on Oct 3rd 2018 at 5:23:01 AM

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#256431: Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:21:24 PM

[up][up][up] The situation in the US and the situation in Venezuela last year are two very different things. Also, we have a framework of legal authority and check and balances that makes that more than a little unlikely.

If Kavanaugh is confirmed I can see it driving up the Democrats midterm chances even more. I can also see impeachment being on the table for him.

Edited by archonspeaks on Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:24:23 AM

They should have sent a poet.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#256432: Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:24:52 PM

Time for pessimism now?

Nope, since a single poll while relevant is not superior to aggregates.

I will only start worrying if Democratic odds of taking the House drop below 70%.

Furthermore, even if there's cause to worry there is never a reason to be pessimistic, that's just pathetic defeatism which will guarantee our fate.

Once the court continues to defer to the executive in terms of power, what's going to stop the courts from stripping a Democratic Congress of its powers? (It happened in Venezuela last year.)

Because Congress is what has the power, the courts can't do that. Which you would know if you actually cared about the truth beyond using it to give yourself an excuse to panic and preemptively give up.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#256433: Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:27:24 PM

I also note that the Midterm fight is fought down in the States and Districts (since there is no Federal Election happening), with the Washington level really only affecting it in a general sense in that it generates good and badwill in general for a specific party.

So focusing on Kavanaugh is by extension a Midterm issue.

"You can reply to this Message!"
unknowing from somewhere.. Since: Mar, 2014
#256434: Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:35:48 PM

As a venezuelan I will said there is the risk but is not the same, venezuelan goverment aparatus have being overtaken by chavismo waaaaaaaaaaay before maduro got and become dictatorial, it would take some time.

"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"
BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#256435: Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:55:38 PM

Being pessimistic is low-effort. It's more productive to try and have realistic expectations of things and then try to work to prevent the worst possible outcome from happening.

Life is what you make of it, Mario.

Do not obey in advance.
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#256436: Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:55:55 PM

Predictably, McConnell does not give a shit about his constituents and says "GOP will not be intimidated by ''these'' people''.

I can't think of a more apt demonstration of how self-serving the GOP is and how little they actually care about what the american public actually wants. I really hope for y'alls sake that the Blue Wave is a thing and these chucklefucks rue the day they decided to sell their souls for what they thought was unlimited power.

BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#256437: Oct 3rd 2018 at 2:59:52 PM

Me, too.

Do not obey in advance.
Invincibleasshole fuckANN from Not here Since: May, 2018 Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
fuckANN
#256438: Oct 3rd 2018 at 3:10:36 PM

So a bit late on this but I didn't get the emergency text I'm guessing its because I have a flip phone.

You're going to pay a price for every bloody thing you do and everything you don't do. You don't get to choose to not pay a price.
danime91 Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
#256439: Oct 3rd 2018 at 3:11:53 PM

I never got any of those emergency texts. Is it a carrier thing?

BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#256440: Oct 3rd 2018 at 3:20:39 PM

I haven't gotten it.

Do not obey in advance.
kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#256442: Oct 3rd 2018 at 4:02:05 PM

I'm not one for pessimism either. But the fact is that the chances of a Dem victory went down from 80% to 75% over just three days. That's still pretty high, but if it keeps going down, we might have a problem.

MattC Since: May, 2016 Relationship Status: My own grandpa
#256443: Oct 3rd 2018 at 4:19:59 PM

[up] I'll just say this now. Fuck Kennedy for retiring when he did. If the GOP end up keeping Congress because of him, I may lose what hope I still had.

"What do we say to the God of Death? Sean Bean is over there."
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#256444: Oct 3rd 2018 at 4:21:45 PM

[up][up] In one poll. That’s important.

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#256445: Oct 3rd 2018 at 4:23:54 PM

It's gotten both better and worse with regards to rape. The point that there used to be bipartisan agreement that rape is fine and thus it becoming a partisan issue is an improvement is valid. But Republicans have also sold their souls to crazytown, which is how we're in this situation.

There was a time when the following were both true:

  1. Brett Kavanaugh being outed as a rapist would have caused both the Democrats and Republicans to turn on him.
  2. Brett Kavanaugh never would be outed as a rapist, however, because no victim's voice would ever be heard in Congress.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#256446: Oct 3rd 2018 at 4:29:57 PM

I'm not one for pessimism either. But the fact is that the chances of a Dem victory went down from 80% to 75% over just three days. That's still pretty high, but if it keeps going down, we might have a problem.

This is logical, personally I find the fact that it happened in three days kind of comforting. I think it's safe to assume that this is from the Republican base being inflamed from the Kavanaugh controversy, but the question is how long will they be inflamed?

If it was over a longer time period then there would be a good chance that they could stay inflamed until the midterms but considering that it's happened in such a short period of time then it's possible in the following days and week their support could taper and fall.

It's gotten both better and worse with regards to rape. The point that there used to be bipartisan agreement that rape is fine and thus it becoming a partisan issue is an improvement is valid. But Republicans have also sold their souls to crazytown, which is how we're in this situation.

There was a time when the following were both true:

Brett Kavanaugh being outed as a rapist would have caused both the Democrats and Republicans to turn on him. Brett Kavanaugh never would be outed as a rapist, however, because no victim's voice would ever be heard in Congress.

Very insightful, personally I would argue that with this in mind the positives outweigh the negatives.

Sure it's bad that both parties won't agree to kick out a probable rapist but the fact that he's even viewed as a probable rapist is quite good. It's a real sign of the success that feminism has had.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#256448: Oct 3rd 2018 at 4:36:46 PM

Yeah, that what's need to be understood here- it's not one poll, it's 538, which is a model based on the aggregate of all polls. A 5% drop there is concerning.

I don't, however, think it's going to stay like that until the election. Kavanaugh is either going get confirmed or he isn't, and either way that's going to affect the balance.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#256449: Oct 3rd 2018 at 4:36:58 PM

[up]X5 Not a poll, it’s a predictive model based on a mix of polling and other factors.

Edited by Silasw on Oct 3rd 2018 at 11:40:06 AM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#256450: Oct 3rd 2018 at 4:39:24 PM

[up][up]That's how I see it. If Kavanaugh gets confirmed (which I think is fairly likely, sad to say), then that's going to energize turnout among women to vote Dem across the board, including many white college educated women who aren't going to be subject to voter suppression.


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