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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
You're preaching to the choir, I doubt anyone here thinks that Flake is likely to do anything other than flake.
Still, it doesn't mean the confirmation is a sure thing, it's probably more likely than not but I'd say it's more 75% then 99%.
Edit: Some news
.
Senator Murkowski said that she supported Flakes proposal for a one weeks delay and an investigation, looks like the Republicans don't have the votes.
Edit Edit: And now Manchin comes out in support of Flake
, I must say that it's rather gratifying to be wrong. It turns out that Senator Flake was for once actually acting on serious concern instead of just pretending to be principled.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 28th 2018 at 3:01:38 PM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangInteresting theory on why Flake is doing this
.
Just what I theorized.
Edited by Mario1995 on Sep 28th 2018 at 3:09:53 PM
"The devil's got all the good gear. What's God got? The Inspiral Carpets and nuns. Fuck that." - Liam GallagherI remember listening to a long program NPR did, where they had a reporter embedded in Flake's office virtually 24/7 for several months straight. My takeaway from it was that Flake is one of those archetypal Mormon goody two shoes with horrible policy positions as far as I'm concerned, but who absolutely believes those are the right positions and the right things to do.
He knows putting in Kavanaugh (or another hardcore conservative, but at this point the White House won't go to another nominee unless Kavanaugh is shot down) is the route to make sure that the things he believes become secure for years, regardless of which way the latest political winds are blowing. He also knows and truly believes that Kavanaugh's rapes and harassment are despicable. He feels like he should vote for Kavanaugh, because the greater good of Kavanaugh being on the Court despite Kavanaugh's flaws as a person should win out, and should be more important... but Flake is being tormented by what he sees and knows in his heart, and maybe by things like that lecture he got by a victim in the elevator.
So he wants a week to reconcile himself to it. To be able to salve his conscience if the investigation comes up with nothing. To find some reason, any reason, to put a shadow of a doubt onto the disturbing things he believes is true about Kavanaugh. To convince himself that a hard conservative Court really is the greater good and is worth the moral compromises made to get there.
That's my guess anyway. I could be wrong.
The NPR program I mentioned
, available in both audio and the transcript in the link.
Alternatively, if the FBI does turn up evidence that Kavanaugh indeed did this, he can reconcile himself with opposing Kavanaugh with the justification that (his) Utopia Justifies the Means does not apply in this case.
Except he believes as Kavanaugh stated in his defense - that it might just be a case of mistaken identity on Ford's part. Others in this forum have already pointed out that memory can be an unfortunately fickle thing, so he wants to make absolutely sure before doing so.
Edited by ironballs16 on Sep 28th 2018 at 3:37:32 PM
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"What it feels like to me is that Senate Republicans have been circling the wagons. Many of them have doubts about Kavanaugh but none of them wants to be the one to be seen to step out of line and make the statement that can be seen to wreck the process. They're all looking at their donor lists and their reelection prospects and their committee assignments and wondering if rocking the boat is worthwhile.
Flake is retiring, so he's got cover for his moral doubts. Once he speaks up, others will follow because he took the initial heat.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Joe Manchin being with Flake on this disturbs me.
It's like if you found out there was a really good issue that needed support from people you didn't trust.
And then found out the second guy to come out was a literal vampire who you knew had eaten kids in your neighborhood.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.It's like if you found out there was a really good issue that needed support from people you didn't trust.
And then found out the second guy to come out was a literal vampire who you knew had eaten kids in your neighborhood.
I advise you to actually look at Manchin's record, he's always reliable when it comes to major votes be it healthcare or anything else. Flake is the one who you shouldn't trust, Manchin is good with appearing undecided until he decides the vote in favor of Democrats.
He only votes Republican when it's inevitable and there's no harm to voting for it.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangCornyn confirms there will be a "supplemental" FBI investigation into Kavanaugh for up to one week.
This is clearly something McConnell didn't want to do, but once Manchin and Murkowski all rallied behind the idea, he had no choice since he needed the votes (especially Murkowski's).
It's possible, though, that nothing will turn up.
Edited by Mario1995 on Sep 28th 2018 at 3:59:29 PM
"The devil's got all the good gear. What's God got? The Inspiral Carpets and nuns. Fuck that." - Liam GallagherNow the question becomes will anything change of they find evidence of Kavanaugh's past acts
no link but did see the notification from Reuters
"Senate Judiciary Committee to request Trump administration for FBI background investigation into Kavanaugh" - Get updates at Reuters.com
Edited by sgamer82 on Sep 28th 2018 at 2:04:31 AM
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From Lisa Desjardins of PBS Newshour
.
Not holding my breath.
Edited by Mario1995 on Sep 28th 2018 at 4:04:51 AM
"The devil's got all the good gear. What's God got? The Inspiral Carpets and nuns. Fuck that." - Liam GallagherConsidering that they aren't having the vote that they desperately want I think it's safe to say that it will, if Flake and Murkowski aren't comfortable voting now then there's no reason to believe that they'll be comfortable voting if the investigation finds even more dirt.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangTrump says he thinks Dr. Ford is credible, although he still wants Kavanaugh in as the Justice
. He says he is letting Sen. Grassley (R-IA) determine if there should be a week long investigation into the accusations through the FBI, and if Sens. Collins (R-MA) and Murkowski (R-AK) are not convinced of Kavanaugh's innocence by then, then they should 'vote their conscious'.
I think this is basically Trump's way of saying "I'm done with Kavanaugh, I'm throwing him to the wolves; if they kill him, I no longer care".
That's not how this works, Trump appoints the head of the FBI, not the career agents that make up its ranks. I see no reason to assume that they would not investigate it to the best of their abilities.
Furthermore, I would not make any assumptions about what can or can't be found in a week, especially considering that they can follow other people's investigations/interview key witnesses.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangWell said, a surprising amount of information can be found in a week if done by professionals with sufficient resources.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangYeah the lack of Judge (the other attacker) having any big statements or public appearances makes me wonder if Republicans fear he would crack under questioning, if they’re right than it wouldn’t be hard for the FBI to get the truth out of him.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran

Flake is known for wavering back and forth on an issue publicly, yet in the end he always votes for the Republican position. He's voted with Trump like 83% of the time.
"The devil's got all the good gear. What's God got? The Inspiral Carpets and nuns. Fuck that." - Liam Gallagher