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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines before posting here.

Rumor-based, fear-mongering and/or inflammatory statements that damage the quality of the thread will be thumped. Off-topic posts will also be thumped. Repeat offenders may be suspended.

If time spent moderating this thread remains a distraction from moderation of the wiki itself, the thread will need to be locked. We want to avoid that, so please follow the forum rules when posting here.


In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.

Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Ludlow Since: Apr, 2013
#255826: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:02:18 PM
Thumped: This post has been thumped with the mod stick. This means knock it off.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#255827: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:02:44 PM

The 0.01 being Collins and Flake deciding to be pragmatic and not taking the political consequences.

[up]Doomsaying is not helpful.

Edited by Rationalinsanity on Sep 27th 2018 at 8:05:11 AM

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#255828: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:04:39 PM

Entrenching power for a generation by putting the most impeachable person they could use on the court? Sceptical on that one.

Ludlow Since: Apr, 2013
#255829: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:04:55 PM

[up][up]Do you disagree with what Eschaton said?

If not, I can't really imagine any other outcome.

Edited by Ludlow on Sep 27th 2018 at 4:07:14 AM

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#255830: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:13:42 PM

The likelihood of “civil war, mass politicide, or mass emigration” remains infinitesimally low. Even mentioning it is a waste of time.

I have to say though, if Kavanaugh is appointed I can definitely see it boosting the Democrats for the midterm. Impeachment will also very much be on the table.

Edited by archonspeaks on Sep 27th 2018 at 4:13:46 AM

They should have sent a poet.
Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#255831: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:14:55 PM

I still think even .01% may be too generous. When it came to repealing Obamacare:

  • 1: Republican constituents would be directly and negatively impacted by it.
  • 2: They could still find plenty of other ways to undermine, if not destroy it.

The Kavanaugh confirmation is a unique convergence of various factors that are likely too significant to surrender.

And then there's the electoral calculus at play. It could be that Republicans see the House as lost, and the Senate safe, regardless of whether they confirm Kavanaugh before or after the midterms.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#255832: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:15:03 PM

Hell if the Dems ever get 66 senate seats impeachment may be on the table for his current positon even if he doesn’t get confirmed.

Edited by Silasw on Sep 27th 2018 at 11:18:05 AM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Bur from Flyover Country (Living Relic) Relationship Status: Having tea with Cthulhu
#255834: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:23:07 PM

No. You can't get me, hope. I know better now.

BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#255835: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:25:22 PM

I agree with what Archon said.

The doomsaying on this thread gets out of control sometimes, and it's really annoying and unhelpful.

Do not obey in advance.
CookingCat Since: Jul, 2018
#255836: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:33:03 PM

[up] Honestly, with the way the pessimists act, I'm surprised they haven't self-destructed.

Edited by CookingCat on Sep 27th 2018 at 4:36:22 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#255837: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:42:52 PM

Kavanaugh is an embarrassment to all men.

Hot Take I'm sure.

I would more say that he's an embarrassment for all Republicans, there are Democratic men after-all.

So, will this hearing actually achieve anything? Nothing seems to suggest that Republicans are any less willing to push through with the nomination. Hell, I imagine that even those with doubts before are digging their feet now as this has become a do or die issue for the massive Republican base.

It depends on what you mean by "achieve anything".

There is a real chance that he'll be nominated either way. But it would be myopic to stop thinking beyond that.

Midterms this is almost certainly going to hurt the Republicans and if he gets confirmed... frankly I wouldn't be surprised if this increases the odds of the Democrats taking the Senate. Now obviously that doesn't mean we should want him to be appointed but if he is then the Republicans could likely regret that decision.

And then there's the electoral calculus at play. It could be that Republicans see the House as lost, and the Senate safe, regardless of whether they confirm Kavanaugh before or after the midterms.

If they are thinking this then they're being hopelessly myopic, 30% is a real chance of taking the Senate and appointing someone who could so offend suburban women and the Democratic base could improve those odds even further.

Still, they are Republicans so I wouldn't be surprised if you're right.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 27th 2018 at 7:45:35 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
unknowing from somewhere.. Since: Mar, 2014
#255838: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:47:26 PM

Yeah there is a lot of pessimistic take here, a side efect of the trump administration is that it create this sense that now everything bad can happen or it WILL happen.

even when technique speaking, you have being resisting trump quite well, much better that other country resist their dictator, belive, I know that very well.

"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"
nombretomado (Season 1) Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
#255839: Sep 27th 2018 at 4:56:17 PM

While we understand (very much, especially among the American mods) the impulse, please refrain from doomsaying. We are working to having a constructive thread.

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#255840: Sep 27th 2018 at 5:10:03 PM

So it looks like a few people from the House of Representatives went on an editing spree on Wikipedia to the point the entirety of Congress have been IP banned for a week.

This includes the doxxing of Hatch and Graham, someone insulting Congressional Interns on the Internship page and "rich-boy socialist interns" on the US Congress page, someone editing the Devil's Triangle disambiguation page to add it was a drinking game by Kavanaugh's buddies, and the near complete deletion of the page for CongressEdits Twitter bot to "Giving stupid interns the ability to broadcast their most masturbatory ideas to 65 thousand people is a terrible thing."

Edited by tclittle on Sep 27th 2018 at 7:11:04 AM

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Mario1995 The Dishonorable from Atlanta Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
The Dishonorable
#255841: Sep 27th 2018 at 5:16:31 PM

Remember those early takes that said that if Kavanaugh went full Trump then his nomination is toast?

Yeah, those takes aren't looking so good now, given the Republican response.

Edited by Mario1995 on Sep 27th 2018 at 8:16:05 AM

"The devil's got all the good gear. What's God got? The Inspiral Carpets and nuns. Fuck that." - Liam Gallagher
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#255842: Sep 27th 2018 at 5:18:02 PM

Judiciary Committee vote continued as scheduled tomorrow at 9:30 am EDT, plans for first procedural vote for Saturday at noon.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Wildcard Since: Jun, 2012
#255843: Sep 27th 2018 at 5:32:59 PM

Well that sucks. We are going to very possibly have another rapist, (besides Trump)to one of our highest positions in government.

What really makes this even worse is that this is the world American conservatives wanted, Trump is basically the American conservative wet dream come to life.

Edited by Wildcard on Sep 27th 2018 at 8:36:26 AM

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#255844: Sep 27th 2018 at 5:41:55 PM

Sens. Susan Collins (R-MA), Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and Joe Manchin (D-WV), are currently undecided on whether to support Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court. Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) has apparently made a decision, but hasn't announced it yet.

It will be disappointing, but not unexpected, if all the Republicans vote yes. If Manchin votes yes, though, he's basically dead to every Democrat (and to me). He'd essentially be a real DINO...

fruitpork Since: Oct, 2010
#255845: Sep 27th 2018 at 5:53:20 PM

Why the fuck would manchin go against party line AND common decency? That’s political suicide even for a DINO.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#255846: Sep 27th 2018 at 5:55:13 PM

I’m hoping he’s equivocating as a tactic to win over the other three, things look more bipartisan is they’re all ‘convinced’ as a group.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#255847: Sep 27th 2018 at 6:02:54 PM

Manchin has a seat in a heavily red state to win, and Manchin has been clear he was fine with voting yes with Kavanaugh before these allegations popped up.

Collins is not up for reelection until 2020, Murkowski is not for reelection until 2022, and Flake and Booker likely don't care, except for their cooperate overlords and their own politics.

It's likely the group is deciding who gets impaled on the sword regardless of which direction they fall.

Catholic magazine America Magazine has pulled their support for Kavanaugh and asked for his withdrawal from the SC nomination.

Edited by tclittle on Sep 27th 2018 at 8:06:52 AM

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#255848: Sep 27th 2018 at 6:07:28 PM

Manchin was still elected as a Democrat. Voting against the rest of the party like that isn't going to win him all the Republican votes he'd need to compensate for that betrayal.

Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#255849: Sep 27th 2018 at 6:16:07 PM

Here's my take- while Manchin certainly needs Democrat voters to keep supporting him, and therefore can't vote Yes, he also needs to appeal to West Virginia voters, and therefore has to make a show of thinking it over rather than just mindlessly toeing the party line.

Or he could be gambling and figuring that the Democrat voters will still vote for an unreliable ally over an outright enemy.

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#255850: Sep 27th 2018 at 6:16:58 PM

Corker announces a Yes on Kauvanaugh.

Edited by tclittle on Sep 27th 2018 at 8:19:29 AM

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."

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