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Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#255526: Sep 24th 2018 at 5:15:59 PM

So I see that the Republicans have decided to attack the accusers directly, and damn the electoral consequences.

Granted, the Access Hollywood tape didn't damn them among Independent/Republican leaning women, so why would they be worried about this?

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#255527: Sep 24th 2018 at 5:49:35 PM

So looking at approval pools Trump is once again trending upwards, presumably because Voters Are Goldfish.

I'm growing increasingly concerned he might be able to get away with replacing Rosenstein or pressure him into resigning, and replace him with someone who will ensure the Russia investigation goes the way of Iran-Contra rather than Watergate.

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#255528: Sep 24th 2018 at 5:52:54 PM

Granted, the Access Hollywood tape didn't damn them among Independent/Republican leaning women, so why would they be worried about this?

Because a hectic election involving two deeply unpopular figures that involved a number of factors isn't the best barometer for this sort of thing?

They already have a woman problem and I would be shocked if this doesn't make it that much worse for them. So this isn't really a very correct assumption.

So looking at approval pools Trump is once again trending upwards, presumably because Voters Are Goldfish.

I'm growing increasingly concerned he might be able to get away with replacing Rosenstein or pressure him into resigning, and replace him with someone who will ensure the Russia investigation goes the way of Iran-Contra rather than Watergate.

I'm going to be honest, unless that upward trend can be established over a long period of time it isn't really worth shit. His approval rating occasionally rises whenever he doesn't do anything obviously wrong, this is not evidence that he could get away with shutting down a popular and highly visible investigation like Mueller's.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 24th 2018 at 8:55:32 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#255529: Sep 24th 2018 at 6:00:50 PM

[up] Its rising in spite of a ton of bad press for Trump over the past few weeks, and I'm beginning to wonder if sizable portions of the general public is reaching the point where they have ceased giving a damn about it.

The overall point is that no matter how many times he misbehaves, he still recovers, and I'm increasingly worried that might apply even to "red line" scenarios like firing Rosenstein.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 24th 2018 at 9:04:43 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#255530: Sep 24th 2018 at 6:01:53 PM

Aren't polls a few days behind the news?

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#255531: Sep 24th 2018 at 6:03:17 PM

[up] Yes, but only by a few days, the "bad news" for Trump has been from the past few weeks.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#255532: Sep 24th 2018 at 6:05:42 PM

His numbers are still driven by the servile cultists known as the GOP base almost exclusively. And he's still in the low 40s, with sky-high disapproval.

And it does not seem to be translating into improving poll numbers for the Midterms.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#255533: Sep 24th 2018 at 6:06:49 PM

Its rising in spite of a ton of bad press for Trump over the past few weeks, and I'm beginning to wonder if sizable portions of the general public is reaching the point where they have ceased giving a damn about it.

The overall point is that no matter how many times he misbehaves, he still recovers, and I'm increasingly worried that might apply even to "red line" scenarios like firing Rosenstein.

Yes, a sizable portion of the General Public doesn't give a damn, they're called Republicans and Independents-in-name-only-who-are-actually-Republicans. This shouldn't be surprising.

Furthermore recovering from "historically unpopular" to "slightly less historically unpopular" is frankly not something that should cause excessive concern, if he outrages 60% of the public then that's enough numbers to sink his party in the midterms and cause him to lose come 2020.

Does it mean things must go well? Of course not but I think you're missing the fact that his stable level of support is dangerously low. Especially considering that his key supporters are literally aging out of the electorate and the midterm alongside 2020 will feature the millennials who have strongly anti-Trump.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 24th 2018 at 9:09:12 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#255534: Sep 24th 2018 at 6:28:55 PM

Teenagers being more levelheaded and mature than Adults. The World is truly upside-down!

'What Teenagers Think About the Allegations Against Brett Kavanaugh

Teenagers across the country are watching how adults are handling the allegations against President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, and taking notes.

Layla King, a high school sophomore in St. Louis, Mo., was asked by her mother this week what she thinks about Brett M. Kavanaugh: If he was guilty at 17 of sexually assaulting a girl at a party decades ago, should he still be held accountable?

“He should,” said Ms. King, who is 15, “because you’re definitely supposed to know right from wrong by my age.”

Defenders of Mr. Kavanaugh have argued that events dating from so long ago are irrelevant and should have no impact on his confirmation. Mr. Kavanaugh, who is 53, has also denied the allegations. But teenagers across the country said in interviews that they were disturbed to see so many adults dismissing the accusations against Mr. Kavanaugh by Christine Blasey Ford. Much of the story felt familiar to them.

They recognized the scenario outlined in Dr. Blasey’s allegation — a drunk teenage boy taking advantage of a girl at a house party. And in the backlash against Dr. Blasey, a research psychologist in California, the teens saw the way girls are often criticized for calling out mistreatment.

On Thursday, President Trump questioned Dr. Blasey’s credibility, saying in a tweet that if the alleged attack “was as bad as she says,” charges would have been filed. Earlier in the week, Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah suggested Dr. Blasey was “mistaken” in her recollections. Right-wing news outlets have published rumors claiming she is mentally unbalanced or politically motivated.

Maycee Wieczorek, a 17-year-old in Rapid City, S.D., said it felt odd as a student to hear grown-ups dismissing the significance of Mr. Kavanaugh’s character in high school.

“For me and my friends his past is our now,” she said.

And she worried that if the Senate does not take Dr. Blasey’s allegations seriously, it will reaffirm the idea that “boys will be boys,” and teach a dangerous lesson to teenagers today.

“Boys will learn that what you do in high school won’t affect your future at all, so go do the damage you need to do now,” she said.

Ms. Wieczorek said she sees in the controversy a double standard for men and women’s behavior that is already well entrenched in high school.

“A boy is figuring out how to be a man, but girls are told, ‘You better shape up in order to be respected,’” she said. That much was clear at her school, she said, in the detentions frequently handed out to girls for dress code violations — a skirt judged as too short, spaghetti straps, a glimpse of bare midriff, anything teachers deem too “distracting.”

Boys, she said, are not subject to such dress-related infractions. “It’s telling girls you exist as an object for someone else’s attention, rather than you’re here to learn and that your education is important,” she said.

On Tuesday, Emma Thatcher, a high school student in Florida, tweeted: “I would just like to say that the emergence of this whole ‘teenage boys should get a pass because they’re not mature enough to understand consent’ narrative is probably one of the most unsettling things I have ever witnessed.”

Despite the rise of #Me Too!, girls said they still felt objectified by their male classmates. A recent nationwide survey by Perry Undem, a research and polling firm, found that about three-quarters of girls 14 to 19 said they felt judged as a sexual object or unsafe as a girl. And compared to boys, they were more likely to say they felt pressure to put others’ feelings before their own.

Amy Zhou, a 17-year-old high school senior in Scottsdale, Ariz., said that during a national teen leadership summit she attended this summer, some of the boys were caught ranking online photos of the female participants by attractiveness. Even after conference officials addressed the incident, only one boy apologized, she said.

“We need to send a message that people should respect men and women,” she said. “Kavanaugh’s going to be upholding the supreme law of the land, so obviously he’s supposed to embody that principle.”

Sexual harassment remains part of the culture at parties, said Brennan Leach, 17, a senior who lives in Wayne, Pa. “Often times girls just come to terms with that experience as a normal part of high school life,” she said.

Ms. Leach said she was frustrated by the doubt cast on Dr. Blasey’s claims, a reaction other girls in her high school have also encountered.

“When a girl has come to school after a weekend party and says someone made her feel uncomfortable, she’s called a drama queen,” Ms. Leach said. “People would say she’s fabricating stories for attention. The language being used by a lot of Republicans is eerily similar to the way boys sound in high school.”

For some teenage boys, the controversy underscores the importance of treating girls with respect. And it has been sobering to realize that gaining a job as powerful as sitting on the Supreme Court bench could hinge on what may have occurred in high school.

Dan Radka, 17, a high school senior who lives in Clinton, Conn., said he had learned from friends who were girls how important it is to obtain consent in sexual situations. His teachers have also stressed using caution on social media, where youthful posts can live forever.

But Mr. Radka said the controversy in Washington has made him think even more deeply about making the right choices now and in college, knowing they may well impact his future.

“I don’t want to do something dumb that I could have prevented,” he said.

Edited by megaeliz on Sep 24th 2018 at 9:35:50 AM

CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#255535: Sep 24th 2018 at 6:52:37 PM

Re: Trump's polls. The scale of disapproval is probably under-reported. A while back, several of the publications that sample populations likely to view him negatively, or at least sample a balanced group, stopped making daily approval rating assessments, which leaves the aggregate polling data unduly influenced by Rasmussen and Fox News, which still tabulate daily data.

Honestly, tracking approval ratings is probably useless unless you can point to like a month's worth of data and point to a long-term trend. Otherwise, it's like panicking after a drop on the Dow — so what? Wait a couple weeks, and look again.

Edited by CrimsonZephyr on Sep 24th 2018 at 9:55:09 AM

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#255536: Sep 25th 2018 at 2:30:01 AM

Trump’s approval rating rise is so tiny that it may well be statistical noise, unless we see it actully rise I wouldn’t worry.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#255537: Sep 25th 2018 at 3:36:59 AM

Isn't there a key factor in that his approval rating hasn't risen outside of his Republican fandom?

Do not obey in advance.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#255538: Sep 25th 2018 at 5:34:26 AM

Isn't there a key factor in that his approval rating hasn't risen outside of his Republican fandom?

Yup, Republicans have been the only people who keep his ratings afloat and thus whenever it falls that means some Republicans are unhappy with him but it rises whenever he behaves even slightly Presidential and those Republicans can feel comfortable approving of him again.

If he were making inroads into non-Republican groups then it would be time to get worried, but he has completely failed to do that and at this point, I doubt he has the capability to do such a thing.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
PolarPhantom Since: Jun, 2012
#255539: Sep 25th 2018 at 5:53:01 AM

Those teens are wiser than myself.

Indeed, I know feel foolish for giving Kavanaugh the benefit of the doubt. His despicable nature and further allegations against him have made me mostly confident that he did what he is accused of.

If only we were more powerful and could keep these crimes in the public consciousness. Then we can hold these people accountable.

CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#255540: Sep 25th 2018 at 6:29:10 AM

[up][up][up]Yes, but the bottom line is that Trump's approval ratings are consistently mediocre-to-terrible even when polling is structurally biased in his favor. Anyone getting nervous at blips in his approval are looking for reasons to worry. Even with an entire news corporation re-purposing itself as his Propaganda Machine, or with the false laurels of a strong economy coinciding with his presidency, he hasn't been able to get 4 out of 10 surveyed Americans to have a remotely positive opinion of him for more than a week at a time.

Seriously, take in the context and relax.

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#255541: Sep 25th 2018 at 7:16:02 AM

Am I the only one who finds Rosenstein offering to resign reassuring?

He knows what is at stake, he wouldn’t offer to resign unless he was confident that either Francisco will continue on his work or that Muller is at a point where Francisco couldn’t stop him if he wanted.

I think it was damage control. After that report about him offering to wear a wire and secretly record Trump came out, his goose was cooked. By resigning, Rosenstein can ensure the buck stops at him.

See, if Rosenstein quits his post in disgrace, then it was just him that did it. But if he remains in his position, then it's "Corruption in every corner of the FBI! Mueller Investigation conspiracy!'

Which is presumably why his resignation was refused. Trump wants to use Rosenstein as a smoking gun to prove that the entire FBI is crooked and that the Russia Investigation is a Witch Hunt. He can only do that if no action is taken against Rosenstein.

Also, as noted, earlier in the thread, Trump wants Rosenstein to replace Kavanaugh in the headlines so that they can quietly slide his nomination through while the public isn't looking. If Rosenstein resigned yesterday, the news cycle might be done with him before they can even finish Kavanaugh's rape accusation hearing.

So looking at approval pools Trump is once again trending upwards, presumably because Voters Are Goldfish.

If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say it's probably because of Rosenstein's wire scandal shaking the public's faith in the Mueller Investigation, as well as the Kavanaugh allegations.

An unfortunate reality of rape is that many Americans do not take it seriously and are eager to come up with alternate explanations of why the rape never happened. Rape has been so thoroughly demonized in this country that people cannot conceive of any human being ever committing it. If you have ever so much as pet a puppy without kicking it, you CANNOT be a rapist in the eyes of millions of Americans.

So when Trump claims that the rape accusations are a political ploy by the Democrats, a lot of people would rather believe that's true than that a rapist could actually exist. "Kavanaugh's not a rapist; I saw him smile once without immediately sucking the souls out of the surrounding population."

We live in a culture where sympathies often lie with the rapist over the rape victim. That upward tick may be reflective of this. Remember that Roy Moore's accusations actually made him more popular with certain parts of the country.

But that doesn't mean the positive trend will continue. After all, remember how Roy Moore's campaign ended.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Sep 25th 2018 at 8:17:19 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#255542: Sep 25th 2018 at 7:26:18 AM

I’m just gonna point out that the “wiretap scandal” seems to be based on very half-assed journalism. It’s not just anonymous intel, it’s second-hand anonymous intel. And it’s intel that is basically a plum gift to Trump.

megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#255543: Sep 25th 2018 at 8:44:26 AM

[up] Is there a possibility of this being a coordinated disinformation campaign to try to get rid of Rosenstein, you think?

Edited by megaeliz on Sep 25th 2018 at 11:56:36 AM

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#255544: Sep 25th 2018 at 8:49:19 AM

I’d say it’s highly likely. NY Times has consistently prioritized access; it doesn’t take a genius to realize/use that.

Read the story- note how thin the accusations against Rosenstein are.

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#255545: Sep 25th 2018 at 8:57:13 AM

If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say it's probably because of Rosenstein's wire scandal shaking the public's faith in the Mueller Investigation, as well as the Kavanaugh allegations.

The Kavanaugh bit isn't really true, after all a record number of people oppose Kavanaugh's nomination and the only demographic that really supports it in any serious number are Republicans.

Also, I think it's a tad early to claim that the wire "scandal" has seriously impacted the general public's view of the investigation, as others have said Trump will occasionally get temporary boosts and unless it's atypically large and lengthy I feel fairly comfortable expecting it to come to nothing as Trump decides to do something stupid or otherwise counter-productive.

An unfortunate reality of rape is that many Americans do not take it seriously and are eager to come up with alternate explanations of why the rape never happened. Rape has been so thoroughly demonized in this country that people cannot conceive of any human being ever committing it. If you have ever so much as pet a puppy without kicking it, you CANNOT be a rapist in the eyes of millions of Americans.

So when Trump claims that the rape accusations are a political ploy by the Democrats, a lot of people would rather believe that's true than that a rapist could actually exist. "Kavanaugh's not a rapist; I saw him smile once without immediately sucking the souls out of the surrounding population."

Sadly true, though I will point out that this is very much a gendered phenomenon in that say for Kavanaugh women believe Ford by 10+ points while men only believe her +1 point.

So as a dude I have to say that this isn't really a "people" problem as much as it's a male problem. Sadly men are often biased in favor of males who are accused of sexual impropriety.

But that doesn't mean the positive trend will continue. After all, remember how Roy Moore's campaign ended.

Well said, the data does not look good for Kavanaugh or Trump and frankly if either were capable of salvaging the situation they would've done it already.

Also for Kavanaugh, it's worth pointing out that we only need two Republicans to defect and thus his confirmation is not inevitable, the leadership may be scum but some individuals for self-interest if nothing else are not willing to throw themselves on their swords just to own the libs.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#255546: Sep 25th 2018 at 9:02:14 AM

So as a dude I have to say that this isn't really a "people" problem as much as it's a male problem. Sadly men are often biased in favor of males who are accused of sexual impropriety.

Actually, like many things The Biggest Divides On The Kavanaugh Allegations Are By Party — Not Gender. Which isn't to say there isn't a gender gap; but it's probably not the main driver at this point.

But related:

Medinoc from France (Before Recorded History)
#255547: Sep 25th 2018 at 9:28:54 AM

Rosenstein should wear a wire at his firing.

"And as long as a sack of shit is not a good thing to be, chivalry will never die."
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#255548: Sep 25th 2018 at 9:56:14 AM

Actually, like many things The Biggest Divides On The Kavanaugh Allegations Are By Party — Not Gender. Which isn't to say there isn't a gender gap; but it's probably not the main driver at this point.

That's a fair point. I at least partially stand corrected then.

In different news, Florida Democratic Incumbent for the Senate Bill Nelson has a 7 point lead over Republican challenger Rick Scott amongst likely voters. Obviously considering that it's one poll and an early one at that we should take it with a grain of salt but it's still rather gratifying all the same.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 25th 2018 at 1:04:30 PM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#255549: Sep 25th 2018 at 10:06:03 AM

Trump Attacks Kavanaugh Accusers in Shocking Rant at UN: Second Accuser ‘Has Nothing,’ ‘Was Drunk’

“Now a new charge comes up and she said well it might not be him, and there were gaps and said she was totally inebriated, and she was all messed up. And she doesn’t know if it was him, but it might’ve been him. Oh, gee, let’s not make him a Supreme Court judge because of that,” said Trump of Ramirez. “This is a con game being played by the Democrats.”

Asked then about the possibility of Ramirez testifying, Trump continued.

“The second accuser has nothing,” he said. “The second accuser doesn’t even know, she thinks maybe it could have been him, maybe not. She admits that she was drunk. She admits time lapses, there were time lapses. This is a person, and this is a series of statements that’s going to take one of the most talented, one of the greatest intellects from a judicial standpoint in our country going to keep him off the United States Supreme Court.”

“I said something this morning, he has a chance to be one of the greatest justices ever in the United States Supreme Court,” Trump continued. “What a shame, and what a shame.”

He also said the Democrats ‘know he’s high quality” and that they’re “winking at each other.”

...Wow. I mean, WOW.

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#255550: Sep 25th 2018 at 10:12:53 AM

[up]Not worth a wow. See M84's signature.


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