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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
No, what I meant was:
It means it probably won't happen, but the fact remains that it easily can happen. I'm not sure what's hard to get about that.
Don't act like it's inevitable, but don't act like it's a super long shot like winning the lottery or getting struck by lightning either.
This. This is what I meant. 1/3 is lower than average chances, but acting like it's the longest long shot in the world is one of the reasons we got Trump, many people saw that data and thought "Welp, I guess Trump is gonna lose, no point in going out to vote now if the result is a sure thing".
It's funny.
Mc Connell likely knew Kavanaugh was a liability, and he could've put his foot down, long enough and Trump would very well would have acquiesced. But...nope. Had to fall in line for dear leader and now it's coming to bite them back in the ass.
New Survey coming this weekend!@Tobias: The context in which it was brought up, this time, is 'since they have a 1/3 chance of losing control of the senate, it would be stupid of the Republicans to act like holding it is a sure thing, especially since that figure could get worse for them if they continue to act visibly awful. Instead, a smart strategy for them would be to avoid doing anything that could make that figure worse'.
Your impassioned argument against treating Dem control of the senate as a sure bet is therefore a strawman. As your appeal to 'lack to cosmic fairness principle'; if such a principle existed, the most likely outcome would happen every time, but since it doesn't sometimes a less likely one happens- therefore, because there is not cosmic fairness principle, it is possible for the Democrats to take the senate.
As a side note, since people do indeed keep bringing this up, Trump's chances weren't 1/3. 538 gave him 1/4, and everywhere else gave him 1/10 or worse. Most people have in retrospect decided that 538 had the most realistic assessment of the odds. So, like, if people insist on making it relevant, it should be noted that Trump winning was likely than the Democrats taking the Senate is.
Holy fuck.
Shit just got fucking real
New Survey coming this weekend!

Kavanaugh is done. He most likely would have gotten in the Supreme Court if it was just Dr. Ford, but with these 2 new allegations, Kavanaugh is most likely going to rescind his nomination, and not suffer anymore public humiliation like he should've when Ford came forward.
If the Democrats take the House, they need to immediately impeach the guy from the Court seat he's currently in.