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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#255401: Sep 23rd 2018 at 5:54:50 PM

[up]x3 And now there's a 3rd allegation.

Kavanaugh is done. He most likely would have gotten in the Supreme Court if it was just Dr. Ford, but with these 2 new allegations, Kavanaugh is most likely going to rescind his nomination, and not suffer anymore public humiliation like he should've when Ford came forward.

If the Democrats take the House, they need to immediately impeach the guy from the Court seat he's currently in.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#255402: Sep 23rd 2018 at 5:59:52 PM

[up]I'll believe it when I see it.

Deadbeatloser22 from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#255403: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:00:27 PM

More likely the party forces the confirmation through before anyone has a chance to get their stuff together.

"Yup. That tasted purple."
PushoverMediaCritic I'm sorry Tien, but I must go all out. from the Italy of America Since: Jul, 2015 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
I'm sorry Tien, but I must go all out.
#255404: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:09:22 PM

This rhetoric is exactly what I'm talking about when I say that there is no Law of Cosmic Fairness. Seems like every day, someone brings this up as if it means something. As if Trump's victory is a sign that we are guaranteed an unlikely victory to correlate to his.

No, what I meant was:

No, people bring it up because people acted like 33% meant nothing then too, and it wasn't true, either.

It means it probably won't happen, but the fact remains that it easily can happen. I'm not sure what's hard to get about that.

Don't act like it's inevitable, but don't act like it's a super long shot like winning the lottery or getting struck by lightning either.

This. This is what I meant. 1/3 is lower than average chances, but acting like it's the longest long shot in the world is one of the reasons we got Trump, many people saw that data and thought "Welp, I guess Trump is gonna lose, no point in going out to vote now if the result is a sure thing".

BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#255405: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:09:52 PM

I wondered if more accusers would come forward. Kavanaugh may have weathered one accusation, but multiple?

Let's see the right-wing media try to twist this around as a victory.

Edited by BearyScary on Sep 23rd 2018 at 5:12:25 AM

Do not obey in advance.
TacticalFox88 from USA Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Dating the Doctor
#255406: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:13:26 PM

It's funny.

Mc Connell likely knew Kavanaugh was a liability, and he could've put his foot down, long enough and Trump would very well would have acquiesced. But...nope. Had to fall in line for dear leader and now it's coming to bite them back in the ass.

New Survey coming this weekend!
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#255407: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:16:48 PM

@Tobias: The context in which it was brought up, this time, is 'since they have a 1/3 chance of losing control of the senate, it would be stupid of the Republicans to act like holding it is a sure thing, especially since that figure could get worse for them if they continue to act visibly awful. Instead, a smart strategy for them would be to avoid doing anything that could make that figure worse'.

Your impassioned argument against treating Dem control of the senate as a sure bet is therefore a strawman. As your appeal to 'lack to cosmic fairness principle'; if such a principle existed, the most likely outcome would happen every time, but since it doesn't sometimes a less likely one happens- therefore, because there is not cosmic fairness principle, it is possible for the Democrats to take the senate.

As a side note, since people do indeed keep bringing this up, Trump's chances weren't 1/3. 538 gave him 1/4, and everywhere else gave him 1/10 or worse. Most people have in retrospect decided that 538 had the most realistic assessment of the odds. So, like, if people insist on making it relevant, it should be noted that Trump winning was likely than the Democrats taking the Senate is.

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#255408: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:17:19 PM

I would put money on Amy Coney Barrett being nominated in the next couple of weeks. She’s almost as awful as Kavanaugh ideologically but presumably hasn’t tried to rape anyone.

Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#255409: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:20:27 PM

I mean, dropping Kavanaugh and nominating a conservative woman instead would be a straightforwardly smart move from a political perspective. Which, illogically enough, kind of makes me wants to bet against Trump doing it.

TacticalFox88 from USA Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Dating the Doctor
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#255411: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:27:10 PM

Avenatti is a bit of a loose cannon and FAR less reliable than Ronan Farrow, so I’d recommend a bucket of salt.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#255412: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:29:19 PM

[up]Even so, with the other allegations already tossed against Kavanaugh, it may not really matter.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#255413: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:30:31 PM

When it comes to sexual misconduct, the accusation is about as damning as actually being guilty.

Edited by sgamer82 on Sep 23rd 2018 at 7:29:56 AM

TacticalFox88 from USA Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Dating the Doctor
#255414: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:32:03 PM

[up][up][up] Yeah, no. I don't like the dude either, but he always brings receipts. He's more than earned the benefit of the doubt.

New Survey coming this weekend!
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#255415: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:36:23 PM

So far as things to use in campaigns for the midterms go "the Republicans want to put gang rape participants on the Supreme Court" is a pretty damning one.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#255416: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:40:09 PM

[up]You've actually got a point. If they vote Kavanaugh in now, they're all more or less screwed.

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#255417: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:42:04 PM

[up]x7 Yeah, that's what I posted as the Page Topper.

And that's why I say he's done.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#255418: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:50:47 PM

I'm hoping there's as much outrage as it deserves but....will there be?

I can't tell anymore.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
TacticalFox88 from USA Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Dating the Doctor
#255419: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:53:08 PM

[up] From decent people? Absolutely.

From the deplorables? Nope.

New Survey coming this weekend!
PolarPhantom Since: Jun, 2012
#255420: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:58:23 PM

"THESE DEMOCRATS ARE JUST PILING ON THIS GOOD MAN TO STOP HIM GETTING APPROVED"

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#255421: Sep 23rd 2018 at 6:59:06 PM

If they didn't believe the first time they won't believe now.

They've already made up their mind.

Oh really when?
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#255422: Sep 23rd 2018 at 7:01:21 PM

Yeah, that's the thing. The fact that "one of theirs" is being attacked matters more to a lot (most?) of them, than whether or not what he's been accused of his actually true.

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#255423: Sep 23rd 2018 at 7:09:55 PM

I still don’t trust Avenatti as far as I could throw him. I’m not saying he made any of this up, I’m saying that I don’t trust him to have the same level of conscientious fact checking as Farrow.

Edited by wisewillow on Sep 23rd 2018 at 10:09:52 AM

PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#255424: Sep 23rd 2018 at 7:30:19 PM

Do they need someone to work in the office, doing logistical work and making calls, etc?

I honestly don't know. And even if they did, I have classes to take.

i'm tired, my friend
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#255425: Sep 23rd 2018 at 7:33:05 PM

My memory is failing me, but the name sounds familiar. Who is Avenatti?


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