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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Yeah, there's a lot that's f*cked up about this case. Even if one were to give Kavanaugh the benefit of the doubt, the Republican response over the accusation is thoroughly indefensible.
What the Republicans are doing is a calculated gamble. They know they're going to get wrecked at the Midterms, so there isn't really a lot to lose by going nuts right now. Especially since the House is only a two-year term and the Senate's pretty safe.
Trying to rush the nomination of an accused rapist to the Supreme Court will make it harder to hold the House, but they've likely already written that off as a lost cause anyway. The political consequence for this is that the Democrats will likely take the House for at least two years, which was already probable anyway.
Meanwhile, the potential gain is that Kavanaugh serves a lifetime appointment on the Supreme Court. Losing a couple years in Congress they probably didn't have anyway in exchange for gaining a Supreme Court Justice? If you're just in it to win it and don't care about morality or leadership, that's a good move.
That, I think, is very important when trying to understand Republican decision-making. They don't actually care about what's right, morally or legally. They just want to win. They're Munchkins, making decisions on what will provide the most advantage to their side and trying to Min/Max the system. And they see everyone else as doing the same thing.
The Republicans see the accusation as a political move made by Democrats to stall the nomination hearing. They're incapable of grasping the moral and legal ramifications of the accusation; all they see is the tactical element. When Ford says, "Kavanaugh held me down and tried to rape me," the Republicans hear, "Bishop to E4."
They view the world through the lens of what is advantageous and disadvantageous to Winning The Game. That's why they can make jokes about Ginsberg being molested by Lincoln with absolutely no sense of shame; because they don't see rape allegations as real true things that happened to people, but as a political strategy that the Democrats have adopted.
The world isn't real to them. It's just a set of points to earn.
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.A capital crime, by definition, is one where the death penalty is applicable. I'm not sure that's quite what you mean to be saying, here.
Quite right, even if Kavanaugh is an innocent man he is not behaving like a decent man. Same with all the Republicans.
I will point out that "1 in 3 chances of losing it" is not really very safe, especially not if the Kavanaugh thing turns suburban white women against them. That could cause serious damage in the midterms in-general including the Senate.
So while I agree that this is a somewhat calculated move I think we shouldn't overestimated their rationality, they have spent years screaming to their base about the importance of the Supreme Court and it's pretty much inevitable that such rhetoric will seep into the higher ranks too. Their single minded obsession with getting Kavanaugh through could cause them serious damage.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangYou have to understand the mentality. The courts keep blocking them from doing stuff they want. Obviously, they aren't wrong, so the problem is the courts.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Oh certainly, I do understand that.
Just that while the Supreme Court does matter losing the House and Senate over it isn't the best deal. And they are risking that.
My point is just that while we shouldn't assume the Republicans are mindless we also shouldn't assume that their leadership hasn't very much drank the kool-aid. The voter base being crazies means that as a democratic organization the leadership has become crazy too (to one degree or another).
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangMitch McConnell is hell-bent on getting Kavanaugh through, and I give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to shrewd political plays. McConnell is an evil mastermind. He's been in office for over thirty years. He masterminded the obstruction campaign to make Obama look ineffectual. He led the move to steal a Supreme Court Justice, which went off without a hitch.
The guy is a godawful human being, but he knows exactly how to "play the game". He is the single most dangerous Republican in Washington. So when he jumps on the "Push Kavanaugh's nomination through before November" bandwagon, I feel confident that he's not just desperately trying to appease a voterbase. This, like everything else he does, is a calculated move.
They'll have another chance to get the House and Senate back in two years. The wheel always turns and public has a short memory span. Kavanaugh, however, will never face a re-election campaign. If he gets in, he's there for a good forty or fifty years.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Sep 23rd 2018 at 9:06:12 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.The guy is a godawful human being, but he knows exactly how to "play the game". He is the single most dangerous Republican in Washington. So when he jumps on the "Push Kavanaugh's nomination through before November" bandwagon, I feel confident that he's not just desperately trying to appease a voterbase. This, like everything else he does, is a calculated move.
Yes but just because something is calculated doesn't mean it can't be miscalculated, furthermore just because he's undeniably a shrewd political operator doesn't mean that he can't be made myopic by his biases or restrained by outside forces.
For example Trump would hardly be likely to support a different nominee not when Kavanaugh is accused of the same thing that he's been accused of and has supported the position that the President should be charged. I'm sure that Mc Connell knows that the Republicans can't afford to have a fight with Trump.
And if the Democrats take Congress then they could not just completely destroy any chance of the Republican domestic agenda passing thus paving the way for Trump to be defeated come 2020 but they could conceivably impeach Kavanaugh or pack the court.
If Mc Connell isn't considering those things then he's being myopic. Which he might very well be.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 23rd 2018 at 11:11:33 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangThe flaw in your argument, Tobias, is that they don't need Kavanaugh. Trump can always nominate some other arch-conservative if that nomination goes away. They do, however, need to hold the Senate- and although the odds are in their favour there, it's not sure thing; it's a thing that they risk by appearing monstrous.
If Mc Connell isn't considering those things then he's being myopic. Which he might very well be.
The odds of the Democrats taking the Senate this year are slim, and he knows that the Democrats won't pack the court or impeach Kavanaugh so those aren't concerns worth considering.
McConnell's not afraid to fight Trump. He's done it several times over the past two years.
Worst case scenario, if the Democrats do take Congress, they will not destroy any chance of the Republican domestic agenda passing. They'll just keep it from passing now. There's always another election. The reins of power pass back and forth all the time. He knows this; it's why he's defended the filibuster despite Trump's countless insistence that it needs to be abolished.
McConnell knows damn well that power in Washington is short-lived. Trump is going to be gone in 2-6 years and McConnell will still be there. The Democrats might be in charge in 2 years, sure. And then the Republicans might be in charge again in 6. And then the Democrats in 10. The wheel always turns.
But the Supreme Court? That wheel barely moves an inch as decades pass. So what does it matter if the Democrats get a couple of years in the halls of power, if the tradeoff is decades of majority-control over the Supreme Court?
Is one Supreme Court Justice worth more than an entire house of Congressmen? Yes. Yes, it is. Because twenty years from now, Congress will look very different, the White House will look completely different, but that Justice will still be there.
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.Responding to the issue of whether something from one’s teenage years should be held against them decades later: (I'm typing on my phone and had to take some time off for breakfast, so it took a while)
I have no problem with forgiving someone for youthful mistakes. I have a major problem with a man who seems prepared to lie under oath at age 51 about his mistakes as a young man. As for promoting that man to the highest court in the land so he can treat lots of other women with the same disregard he and his friends and allies have been treating Ford. (Some of the biggest smearers of Ford are longtime friends of Kavanaugh.)
By contrast, Senator Booker tried to grope the breast of a drunken friend at a New Years party when she unexpectedly kissed him. He tried once more after swatted his hand away. He was 15, and within a few years at college he knew he’d done wrong and was writing a column admitting what he did was wrong, apologizing, and criticizing the culture that encouraged that behavior.
So far as I’m concerned, that’s acceptable and all is forgiven. Relying on powerful friends to get you a powerful job and shield you from consequences while traumatizing your likely victim all over again... nope, fuck that. And fuck him.
Edited by TheWanderer on Sep 23rd 2018 at 11:37:57 AM
| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |You've said this before but it's simply not true, 1 in 3 is not slim.
Furthermore excuse me, "he knows that the Democrats won't pack the court or impeach Kavanaugh"? How exactly do you know this? Because this is an extremely unfounded assumption.
And if the Democrats can implement their agenda and get a President in 2020 then they can implement reforms that change the nation in their image, and once something like single payer is implemented it'll be very difficult to remove. This would all matter to the Republicans if they were actually engaging in long term planning.
The ACA was deeply flawed and yet they still couldn't remove it.
Just because the reins of power pass on does not mean that what's done with them is irrelevant and the Republican agenda being shut down for at-least four more years is serious. Just because they can be elected again does not mean they could have the power to do what they want, and if Democrats do well in the midterms then that could have very long ranging consequences considering that maps are being redrawn.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 23rd 2018 at 11:46:29 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangYeah, that is actually pretty slim. There is no Law of Cosmic Fairness. We are not owed an unlikely victory just because Trump got one. That's not how probability works.
The most probable outcome of 2018 is that we'll take the House but they'll hold the Senate.
Because both of these things are crazy radical ideas that are incredibly difficult to pull off, guaranteed to murder us at the polls the following election. No actual Democratic politician is hanging themselves by proposing them, and that's unlikely to change for the foreseeable future.
It's a pipe dream. It's an emotional response to a wicked blow we've been dealt to try and find any desperate solution that will solve the problem right this second. But politics don't work on a "Now" timescale. We lost hard in 2016 and shit like this is the consequence for that. There is no Quick Fix.
The ACA was deeply flawed and yet they still couldn't remove it.
Not if the Supreme Court stops them, they can't. The Supreme Court is effectively the highest power in the nation, with very few checks over their rule.
The Republican agenda isn't going anywhere. There is no expiration date on cutting rich people's taxes and hating non-whites. They've been trying to kill Roe v. Wade for 45 years. Republicans are nothing if not patient.
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.The most probable outcome of 2018 is that we'll take the House but they'll hold the Senate.
What? 1 in 3 is not slim, it's unlikely but quite possible.
Slim would be 1 in 10 or 2 in 10.
Furthermore don't patronize me, I'm well aware that the universe doesn't care about what we view as good (I've said that multiple times) but your definition of "slim" is ridiculous.
It's a pipe dream. It's an emotional response to a wicked blow we've been dealt to try and find any desperate solution that will solve the problem right this second. But politics don't work on a "Now" timescale. We lost hard in 2016 and shit like this is the consequence for that. There is no Quick Fix.
Ah I see you don't have any actual evidence and are just projecting your personal views onto reality. Got it.
The Supreme Court's power relies on popular legitimacy, the reason that FDR convinced the hostile Supreme Court to stop opposing the New Deal even though his court packing failed was because they knew that fact intimately and didn't want to turn the public against them.
Single payer has 70% support, if that was shot down by a hostile group of out of touch reactionaries then it defies belief that there would not be strong public outrage.
Also don't be so insulting, my position is not more "emotional" then yours and it's offensive that you would pretend that your position is somehow the only logical one.
Are you being purposely obtuse? The Republican agenda would be practically dead. They understand that the more reforms we can do that show people that the government can actually help people the worse their position becomes.
There's a reason they've been so desperate to get Trump elected, they understand that they can't afford for more blows to their agenda.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 23rd 2018 at 12:26:59 PM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangThe GOP and their diehard voter base know they have effectively lost the culture war. They still have the electoral advantages to keep them from becoming completely obsolete, but they know things aren't really going their way.
The Trump win was effectively a final massive destructive temper tantrum from a bunch of spoiled children who are angry that their whining isn't getting them what they want anymore.
Disgusted, but not surprisedNah progressives started it by trying to change things, if we still had slavery and women being second class citizens then there would be no culture war.
Which should tell you how righteous the culture war is.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang

No offense, but imo Rape in my opinion is an Capital Crime and should be treated as such. (And "attemped" gets no dice from me, just because you failed to commit the crime doesn't mean you didn't try it.) It the most serious violation of another person short of outright murder and can have, as seen here, decades lasting consequences for the victim.
Yeah, we do stupid shit when we are young. But stupid shit has consequences and you're not waving it away if a seventeen old drives the cute girl who didn't want to go to prom with him dead, are you?
There is also the fact that Kavanaugh is not applying to be a Dog Catcher or Country Clerk. He wants to be a Member of the Supreme Court, the highest instance of law and justice of a country of 300 million people.
Highest Standards should apply here.
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