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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Okay, it's looking more and more likely that Democrats will retake the House although I remain skeptical. Is there more than a snowballs chance in Hell that they might retake the Senate?" I know the balance of elections are against them because they're having to play defense. Contrariwise what are the chances of their actually losing Senate seats?
Trump delenda estIt’s not impossible. Maybe not likely, per se, but it’s a chance.
As far as losing seats goes, I do somewhat expect that they will, sadly. I think there are about four at risk? By my reckoning, they can afford to lose one and still win, maybe two, but that’s it.
Oh God! Natural light!There is very much a chance, it's not probable due to the fact that the Democrats are mostly on the defensive but with the election of Doug Jones in Alabama it's far more possible then what it was.
So don't expect it but vote when you can.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
The Dems retaking the Senate is not a coin toss, it's a huge longshot just because of the numbers.
In the neutral environment, it would a huge longshot for the Dems. But we're not in a neutral environment. Far from it. Indeed, with a neutral map, holding the senate would a huge longshot for the GOP.
What we have a the moment is a situation where both sides have an advantage that, under different circumstances, would make victory a sure thing. In the absence of solid data telling us which supposedly overwhelming advantage is winning out, there's no reason to assume it's a sure thing for either side.
Edited by Gilphon on Sep 4th 2018 at 4:54:07 AM
The committee said it would continue a previously undisclosed inquiry into Blum, a Republican who is considered among the most vulnerable incumbents in Congress in November’s election.
A statement from the committee’s Republican chairwoman and Democratic ranking member said the panel intends to announce the outcome by Dec. 17, more than one month after voters decide whether to give Blum a third two-year term representing Iowa’s 1st District. Blum, of Dubuque, is facing Democratic state Rep. Abby Finkenauer.
In a statement, Blum blamed his political opponents and the news media for an investigation into what he called a “minor error” for which he has apologized.
“That is why they have waged a crusade of personal destruction on me and other principled leaders working to drain the swamp in Washington — this is the Swamp fighting back,” he wrote. “In my case they scream ‘ETHICS VIOLATION!’ over a clerical error on a form.”
The investigation stems from a February story by The Associated Press about Tin Moon Corp., an internet marketing company founded by Blum and longtime business partner Ed Graham during Blum’s first term in office in 2016.
The company promises it can help businesses bury negative information below the first page of internet search results. Tin Moon has solicited companies who have received warning letters for violations from the Food and Drug Administration, promising: “We WILL remove the derogatory FDA letter from page one so it no longer damages your business and reputation!” The FDA said in May that companies should not use Tin Moon’s services, saying they should focus on correcting violations rather than hiding warnings.
Blum failed to disclose his position as a corporate director in his 2016 personal financial disclosure, as required by House ethics rules. He blamed an “administrative oversight,” and amended his form to list his role and claim the company as an asset worth $700. In his form covering 2017, filed last month, Blum reported that he had a 70 percent stake, was a director, and that the company is worth between $1,000 and $15,000.
Experts on House rules have told AP that Blum and his chief of staff John Ferland also may have committed other violations.
Since 2016, the company had promoted itself with an online ad in which Ferland falsely posed as a satisfied customer. The ad said that Ferland was a representative of Digital Canal, a software company that Blum also owns.
Ferland has never had any role with Digital Canal and was director of Blum’s congressional district office at the time. He has said he recorded the video at the request of Graham, who is president of Digital Canal and the treasurer of Blum’s re-election campaign. The company took down that video after AP’s story, which noted that House resources can’t be used to promote private businesses.
The company also eventually removed any reference to Blum on its website, which had featured an official photo of Blum wearing his congressional pin and referred to him as Tin Moon’s CEO.
The Ethics Committee faced a Tuesday deadline to make a statement about the status of the case by law. Its statement said the panel received a referral July 19 from the Office of Congressional Ethics, an independent office that investigates allegations of misconduct against lawmakers and their staff. At least one of Blum’s constituents filed a complaint with that office.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said news of the investigation “shatters any ounce of credibility” that Blum had.
“This ethics investigation will haunt him like a dark cloud through Election Day,” it said.
We have some numbers floating around, the Dems have around the same chance of taking the senate as the Republicans have of holding the house (though I assume no overlap).
So to bring back the joke that 538 made when their model first went up, yes it’s a 25% chance, but you know what else was a 25% chance? Trump winning in 2016.
It’s possible, the Republicans are favoured for the senate, but it’s possible.
The big issue isn’t the Dem smacking pickups, it’s holding the likes of Florida and North Dakota, they’d need to pick up three seats and lose only one of thouse two to take the senate.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranBad news: The gerrymandered Congressional map in North Carolina that has been ruled unconstitutional will be used in November its too late to draw a new one. Gee, I wonder if the NC GOP, which is corrupt even Republican standards, had anything to do with this?
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/04/politics/north-carolina-court-gerrymander-midterms/index.html
Indeed. We need to win 80% of Senate elections in order to claim a 51-49 majority. It's not impossible, but we should all be prepared for the likelihood of it not happening.
Frankly, if we manage to even break even in the Senate race, I'll consider that a godsend.
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.Trump asked for plans to preemptively nuke North Korea
Trump wanted to assassinate Assad but got stopped by Jim Mattis
When someone called Jim Mad DogMattis is more sane than the fucking president.
Inter arma enim silent leges![]()
This is a reasonable position, personally I view taking the House as a sign of success or failure while taking the Senate would merely be a amazing event that isn't guaranteed.
I simply cannot wait for the midterms.
He's widely respected amongst the military (as I understand it) for a reason, the guy's a professional who may happen to have a somewhat bellicose epithet.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 4th 2018 at 8:55:08 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangGiven the fame Mattis has, this quote is very sanitized.
Inter arma enim silent legesI'm pretty sure Trump would be a losing contestant on Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?.
Disgusted, but not surprised
And, he would insist the whole thing was rigged, because he knows he's bigly smart.
I was talking to my Aunt who is a police officer, about the Trump Russian investigation. she seemed confused about why you would investigate a person. She said something along the lines of, when I'm doing an investigation, we start with a crime, and then work from there to establish suspects, not start with a person and start looking to see if they've committed crimes. I wasn't sure what to say to that.
@M84: To be fair, most Presidents are deceptively rather smart (basically all of them seem to have above-average intelligence).
Trump is probably a "smart" person, though likely he has "uneven intelligence" for lack of a better term, being smart in some areas but not others. For example, I'm convinced he's a genius con man.
Of course, even if he is "smart" he's obviously misinformed about the world in general and also pathologically impulsive. This shows in how he talks-he seems very careless with his choice of words and how often he uses them. Still, technically different than being outright stupid.
Edited by Protagonist506 on Sep 4th 2018 at 7:05:14 AM
Leviticus 19:34

Edited by Mario1995 on Sep 4th 2018 at 4:08:27 AM
"The devil's got all the good gear. What's God got? The Inspiral Carpets and nuns. Fuck that." - Liam Gallagher