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Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#252951: Aug 24th 2018 at 11:32:28 AM

Outright immunity isn't handed out like candy, and it isn't cheap. The CFO must have offered something vital, not just in damning Cohen but in other aspects of the probe as well.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
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#252952: Aug 24th 2018 at 11:37:56 AM

A Democratic Congress could certainly appoint Mueller as an investigator, but by that time, the Justice Department under Trump's New Toadie will have assumed control of the previous Mueller investigation, including all of their collected evidence, witnesses, their Grand Jury, etc.

Basically, in the event that Trump replaces Sessions, every single part of the investigation becomes compromised. The whole investigation gets passed off to Trump's office, allowing him to take whatever action is necessary to protect himself during the time it would take for the hypothetical Congress to appoint Mueller and start over from scratch.

The threat isn't that Trump's new guy will fire Mueller; it's that Trump's White House will seize complete ownership of the investigation's progress. It is of the utmost importance that this does not happen.

There's a reason that Mueller has tried very hard to keep access to his findings restricted from Trump and everyone associated with Trump.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Aug 24th 2018 at 12:40:40 PM

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BlueNinja0 The Mod with the Migraine from Taking a left at Albuquerque Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
The Mod with the Migraine
#252953: Aug 24th 2018 at 11:38:50 AM

The headlines I'm seeing about the CFO flip don't seem too impressed, but we'll see.

However, at least one person thinks the Manafort jury holdout is a good thing for the Mueller investigation, as it provides a target for Trump to have pardons blow up in his face.

    Full article text 
Emphasis mine.
On Thursday, the Washington Post reported that President Donald Trump had recently discussed with his lawyers the prospect of issuing a pardon for Paul Manafort. The former Trump campaign chairman, who was convicted earlier this week on charges of bank fraud and tax fraud, remains under scrutiny by special counsel Robert Mueller for his work on the 2016 campaign and his connections to Russia. In considering a pardon, Trump could be seeking to pre-empt a cooperation deal with another former top lieutenant after Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to campaign-related offenses this week and promised through an attorney to cooperate with the Mueller probe. A pardon would backfire, though, because Manafort would still face numerous state charges and his federal convictions this week would now be admissible in some of those states. Moreover, Trump would only be strengthening the criminal obstruction and the impeachment cases against him.

Last November, I explained how Mueller’s team seemed to be strategizing a way to outmaneuver Trump’s pardons when they initially brought charges against Manafort. Prosecutors appeared to be holding back some charges for states to bring, just in case Trump pardoned Manafort. Presidential pardons only address federal crimes, which means Manafort could face state charges for the same acts.

Federal double jeopardy law would not be an issue here. The doctrine of dual sovereignty allows the federal and state governments to prosecute the same crimes. The problem is that many states broaden double jeopardy protections to prevent the bringing of state charges after a federal prosecution. I’ve explained in Slate that New York and Pennsylvania have such a rule. It turns out that Virginia and California do, too. But because of some likely combination of prosecutorial skill and luck, Manafort still faces prosecutions in those states, plus perhaps Illinois and others.

Let’s first focus on just the crimes for which Manafort has already been tried. This week, he was convicted of five counts of tax fraud, two counts of bank fraud, and one count of failing to report a foreign bank account. In New York and Virginia, where he held residences, double jeopardy laws prevent him from being charged for the exact same crimes. But state tax fraud is a distinct crime, one that he almost certainly also committed. When one fraudulently hides income from the federal government, one has to hide that same income fraudulently in state tax returns in order to avoid incriminating inconsistencies.

Virginia’s double jeopardy statute bars secondary state prosecutions for committing “the same act” in “violation of both a state and a federal statute.” Filing a state tax return, though, is a separate act from filing a federal return. So filing an unlawful state tax return in Virginia would be separate, prosecutable act from Manafort’s federal filing, one that cannot be pardoned by Trump. The Virginia tax law further covers fraud, and a Virginia return that replicated his federal one would contain the same fraudulent material as his federal return.

Further devastating for Manafort’s pardon hopes, according to Virginia rules of evidence, past convictions can be admissible: “Such evidence is admissible if it tends to prove any relevant fact pertaining to the offense charged, such as where it is relevant to show motive, opportunity, intent, preparation, plan, knowledge, identity, absence of mistake, accident, or if they are part of a common scheme or plan.” So in a Virginia trial against Manafort for tax fraud, these many federal convictions would be admissible and devastating.

Manafort also faces New York state tax fraud liability with no double jeopardy protection. New York has a double jeopardy law, but it won’t help Manafort in another tax case. Leona Helmsley, the hotel magnate known as the “Queen of Mean,” had benefited from the double jeopardy rule to escape state tax prosecution. In 2011, New York fixed the rule to allow state tax fraud prosecutions to follow a federal prosecution. Now Manafort could face New York tax fraud charges, even after a federal pardon.

Manafort was also tried on bank fraud relating to New York and California banks. Both states have double jeopardy statutes that seem to create a potential pardon protection. But there was a hung jury on the conspiracy bank fraud charge for the California bank. California’s double jeopardy law states, “No person can be subjected to a second prosecution for a public offense for which he has once been prosecuted and convicted or acquitted.” That obviously excludes mistrials. So California could prosecute the separate act of conspiracy bank fraud because Manafort has never been prosecuted and convicted or acquitted of that charge.

There was also a hung jury on the four bank fraud charges for his dealings with the Federal Savings Bank in Illinois. The state’s double jeopardy law also allows a second state prosecution after a mistrial. It is ironic that the one holdout juror who caused a mistrial on some charges opened up Manafort to state retrials.

If Trump pardons Manafort on the charges from this month’s federal case alone, then he would still face prosecution in three very blue states (New York, Illinois, and California) and one increasingly blue-ish state (Virginia). Those are four jury pools that would potentially be altogether worse for Manafort. If, in this month’s trial, Manafort could only persuade one juror out of 12 on about half of these charges, his chances would seem pretty low at running the table in four more trials in Manhattan, Los Angeles, Chicago, and northern Virginia. And we haven’t even discussed the charges in the second federal trial next month and whatever additional state criminal liability Manafort might face that has not been charged at the federal level. And Mueller still might be strategically holding off on other charges.

It’s also unlikely that a Trump pardon would at least get Manafort out of jail temporarily while awaiting state trials. Judge Amy Berman Jackson in D.C. took Manafort’s alleged witness tampering so seriously that she revoked his bail.* One of those state judges would probably deny bail, too, even if Manafort is pardoned for this alleged tampering. And that would put Manafort in state jail, not “Club Fed.” That’s another reason Manafort might not want a federal pardon: He might prefer federal prison over any state prison.

It’s also important to note that the Supreme Court has taken up a case called Gamble v. United States in which it could rule on double jeopardy and federal-state dual sovereignty for next term. This case could directly impact the Trump investigation if Manafort is pardoned. There are many reasons the Senate should delay confirming Judge Brett Kavanaugh. But there is no way Kavanaugh should be confirmed while he may be the deciding vote on a case directly impacting double jeopardy law and the Trump investigation.

Ultimately, a Trump pardon wouldn’t benefit Manafort in any concrete sense, but it would build a stronger case for impeachment and removal. Such a pardon would only add proof of Trump’s obstruction, providing additional evidence of criminal corrupt intent. Finally, the same principle of state sovereignty to prosecute would apply to any crimes Trump himself may have committed. If Trump is foolish enough to try to pardon himself, there will be no holding back the state prosecutor.

The part that really worries me is the bit about Kavanaugh. I don't think the GOP would like anything better than to get him nominated, wait for SCOTUS to strike down Trump's case, and then go, "Well, if the court says it's legal, we're good to go!"

That’s the epitome of privilege right there, not considering armed nazis a threat to your life. - Silasw
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#252954: Aug 24th 2018 at 11:39:08 AM

[up][up]Maybe, that's a fair point.

Still I think by that time enough damage could be done to seriously harm if not destroy Trump's political power.

TBH A Democratic President in 2020 is much more important to me then Trump going in jail, and I could easily see the investigation help with the former even if it doesn't achieve the latter.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Aug 24th 2018 at 2:38:43 PM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#252955: Aug 24th 2018 at 11:42:08 AM

Remember that any new Attorney General has to pass the Senate first, as well.

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TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
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#252956: Aug 24th 2018 at 11:42:36 AM

I think it depends heavily on what the final outcome of the investigation is. Much like the "Fake News" thing, Trump's spent two years screaming "Witch Hunt".

If Trump's White House gets the final word on the investigation, then all of the evidence disappears overnight and that final word is "Witch hunt. It was always a Witch Hunt. There was never anything there. It was all just a Democratic conspiracy. End story. Roll credits."

Should Sessions's removal occur, Mueller's team might actually be better off leaking their findings to the public and letting the American people be the judge, rather than letting Trump silently shred everything they've spent the last two years building and declare himself absolved.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Aug 24th 2018 at 12:42:44 PM

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RabidTanker God-Mayor of Sim-Kind Since: May, 2014 Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
God-Mayor of Sim-Kind
#252957: Aug 24th 2018 at 11:46:49 AM

So, in more positive news, California is overturning marijuana convictions.

Answer no master, never the slave Carry your dreams down into the grave Every heart, like every soul, equal to break
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#252958: Aug 24th 2018 at 11:47:15 AM

Remember that any new Attorney General has to pass the Senate first, as well.

Very good point, if the Democrats take Congress then they would get much more control over what kind of attorney general Trump chooses.

And that I think would also be another way that they could maintain the integrity of the investigation.

••• I think it depends heavily on what the final outcome of the investigation is. Much like the "Fake News" thing, Trump's spent two years screaming "Witch Hunt".

If Trump's White House gets the final word on the investigation, then all of the evidence disappears overnight and that final word is "Witch hunt. It was always a Witch Hunt. There was never anything there. It was all just a Democratic conspiracy. End story. Roll credits."

Should Sessions's removal occur, Mueller's team might actually be better off leaking their findings to the public and letting the American people be the judge, rather than letting Trump silently shred everything they've spent the last two years building and declare himself absolved.

Hmm... compelling argument.

Still I think the most important question is how effective has his calls of "Witch Hunt" been so far? We know that self-identifying Republicans mostly believe it but considering that group mostly self-selects for people who like Trump I'm not sure how relevant they are.

I could be wrong but I don't believe that the efforts of Trump and his allies/sycophants to discredit the investigation have been very successful, so I'm skeptical of the idea that an investigation which has resulted in very public results (i.e at the very least Manafort and Cohen) could suddenly be shut down with anything less then public outrage.

So, in more positive news, California is overturning marijuana convictions.

Wonderful, the War on Drugs is failed policy and the gradual process of sweeping it aside is great to see.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Aug 24th 2018 at 2:48:35 PM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
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#252959: Aug 24th 2018 at 11:53:47 AM

The thing about shutting it down is that by changing out the Attorney General, Trump doesn't have to kill it in the eyes of the public. He can instead make it look like it closed naturally.

"The Justice Department released their heavily redacted final report today on the Russia investigation and it proves that there is not and never was any collusion."

Anyone waiting to see how the investigation concludes before forming an opinion on Trump and Russia would see that as a final admission that we were just wasting everybody's time with this Russia thing.

As for a new AG passing the Senate, bear in mind that the odds of taking the Senate are unlikely at best. The most probable forecast for 2019-2020 is that Democrats take the House while the Senate narrowly remains in Republican control.

Even accounting for a Blue Wave, the Senate map is simply terrible for us since we are almost exclusively playing defense rather than offense.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Aug 24th 2018 at 12:56:12 PM

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Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#252960: Aug 24th 2018 at 11:57:02 AM

I don't know enough to form an opinion about whether or not that's a plausible way to kill the investigation so I'm going to take a neutral stance on the issue.

While you're right that taking the Senate is implausible with the previous victory in Alabama it's much less implausible then it was, so while we certainly shouldn't assume about it the possibility remains.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
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#252961: Aug 24th 2018 at 12:08:52 PM

The possibility does remain. I just don't want to put too much stock in the idea that surely a Democrat-controlled Senate will shut down any appointee Trump makes at a time when we're defending 26 seats to the GOP's 9 and need to somehow turn that into a +2 change to win.

Anything less than an overwhelming 80% landslide in Senate races won and we don't get the Senate for 2019 and 2020. So, like I said, not impossible especially with the trend in elections this year. But any plan that depends on a Blue Senate in 2019 is in dire need of some contingencies.

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Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#252962: Aug 24th 2018 at 12:09:29 PM

That's fair enough.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#252963: Aug 24th 2018 at 12:16:39 PM

Unrelated, but does anyone else appreciate the irony that one of the biggest roadblocks to the Republican president letting his cronies get away with their crimes is, for all intents and purposes, States' Rights?

ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#252964: Aug 24th 2018 at 12:23:46 PM

Basically, in the event that Trump replaces Sessions, every single part of the investigation becomes compromised. The whole investigation gets passed off to Trump's office, allowing him to take whatever action is necessary to protect himself during the time it would take for the hypothetical Congress to appoint Mueller and start over from scratch.

Not necessarily, as Sessions has recused himself, and Rod Rosenstein is currently in charge of overseeing the investigation - removing Sessions alone won't do squat, and it would require appointment of a new AG to do anything on that front. Provided it doesn't get passed prior to the new electees being inducted, that could be a good thing.

[down]

The Sessions replacement is apparently being planned for after the election, but before the new Congress can be seated, in order to exploit the Lame Duck Congress they're likely anticipating.

Edited by ironballs16 on Aug 24th 2018 at 12:44:35 PM

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#252965: Aug 24th 2018 at 12:33:35 PM

Sessions getting fired would fracture the majority in the Senate so hard it's not nearly a sure thing a replacement would even be confirmed in time for the election, and the controversy over it would possibly be strong enough to cost the GOP a couple races.

You're looking at it from a propaganda perspective, and even that's flawed since Trump has never been able to control the narrative since the investigation started. But this is an issue of office politics and people, which is why Trump finds himself so frequently undermined by his own.

Edited by CrimsonZephyr on Aug 24th 2018 at 3:39:43 PM

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#252966: Aug 24th 2018 at 12:45:58 PM

Also it’s possible that Rosenstein and Muller have a plan, once Sessions is gone they know Trump’s plan, so they have the entire conformation period of the new AG to do something. Be that releasing what they have early, releasing a report recommending that congress continue the investigation, going for the jugular and going after Trump for obstruction for firing Sessions, or possibly even moving the investigation formally from the justice department to congress.

If the writing is on the wall Muller can just write a report that says “this matter still requires investigation and as I such I am recommending that congress begin an investigation, I will hand all my evidence over to said investigation”.

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Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#252967: Aug 24th 2018 at 1:03:50 PM

From what I can see, at least some Republicans (both Congress and Sentate) aren't sure a new attorney-general could be successfully approved in the current environment even if Sessions does get fired after the midterms, so it's not just worth looking at what possible replacements for attorney-general there might be but who would be keeping the seat warm until a new one could be agreed.

Edited by Wyldchyld on Aug 24th 2018 at 9:04:18 AM

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kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#252968: Aug 24th 2018 at 1:44:19 PM

Also, much of the current Senate (including Republicans) has said that if Sessions is removed, they won't confirm a new AG. Which would leave Rosenstein in charge.

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
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#252969: Aug 24th 2018 at 1:48:34 PM

A Republican's word is worth less than the air used to speak it. Lindsay Graham's already backed off on protecting Sessions.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has made a 180 on President Donald Trump and Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

Last year, Graham said there would be “holy hell” if Trump fired Sessions, but now he is more than fine with it.

“The president is entitled to an attorney general he has faith in,” Graham said on Thursday. “And I think there will come a time sooner rather than later where it will be time to have a new face and a fresh voice at the Department of Justice.”

That’s in stark contrast to what he said in July 2017.

“I’m 100 percent behind Jeff Sessions,” Graham told CNN then. “There will be no confirmation hearing for a new attorney general in 2017. If Jeff Sessions is fired, there will be holy hell to pay.”

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#252970: Aug 24th 2018 at 1:50:28 PM

Strictly speaking, he told the truth. There was no hearing for a new Attorney General in 2017.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#252971: Aug 24th 2018 at 1:51:47 PM

[up][up]Perhaps. But in this case, Graham seems like more of an outlier. Most who said they wouldn't support a new AG are still saying it today.

Edited by kkhohoho on Aug 24th 2018 at 3:51:24 AM

ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#252972: Aug 24th 2018 at 1:52:15 PM

[up][up][up]

Some major Exact Words at play there, as Graham said there would be no vote in 2017.

[up][up]

[nja]d.

Edited by ironballs16 on Aug 24th 2018 at 1:53:01 AM

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#252973: Aug 24th 2018 at 1:54:58 PM

So how long do we have to go on pretending that there is such a thing as a decent Republican, at least at the federal level?

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#252974: Aug 24th 2018 at 1:58:32 PM

John Mc Cain has decided to cease cancer treatment.

Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#252975: Aug 24th 2018 at 2:21:17 PM

[up][up]Was anyone on this thread ever doing such?

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