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tricksterson Never Trust from Behind you with an icepick Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
Never Trust
#252576: Aug 19th 2018 at 3:59:01 PM

[up][up]Start having "sexual deviants" rounded up into reeducation camps? There are three things that make him more dangerous than Trump:

  • He is a true believer, unlike Trump, the kind who will burn people at the stake and think he's saving their souls.
  • He can actually fake sanity, as witness their different reactions to TheHamilton cast lecturing him.
  • He has a measure of competence. Not a huge measure bur certainly more than Trump.

Trump delenda est
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#252577: Aug 19th 2018 at 4:13:23 PM

When it comes to Trump and Pence, I think the question boils down to who you think is more dangerous.

I personally think Trump is more dangerous because he's an unpredictable idiot. Pence, as noted, can at least fake sanity, but with that comes at least some awareness of what he can and can't get away with. Since, at this point, any impeachment effort comes with a Blue Wave, that will significantly limit Pence's options.

Combine that with how unpopular I've heard here that he was in his own state, I can't imagine his veneer of sanity doing that much for him.

Edited by sgamer82 on Aug 19th 2018 at 5:14:04 AM

rmctagg09 The Wanderer from Brooklyn, NY (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: I won't say I'm in love
The Wanderer
#252578: Aug 19th 2018 at 4:13:27 PM

Cohen, Trump’s Ex-Lawyer, Investigated for Bank Fraud in Excess of $20 Million:

Federal authorities investigating whether President Trump’s former personal lawyer and fixer, Michael D. Cohen, committed bank and tax fraud have zeroed in on well over $20 million in loans obtained by taxi businesses that he and his family own, according to people familiar with the matter.

Investigators are also examining whether Mr. Cohen violated campaign finance or other laws by helping to arrange financial deals to secure the silence of women who said they had affairs with Mr. Trump. The inquiry has entered the final stage and prosecutors are considering filing charges by the end of August, two of the people said.

Any criminal charges against Mr. Cohen would deal a significant blow to the president. Mr. Cohen, 52, worked for the president’s company, the Trump Organization, for more than a decade. He was one of Mr. Trump’s most loyal and visible aides and called himself the president’s personal lawyer after Mr. Trump took office.

The bank loans under scrutiny, the total of which has not been previously reported, came from two financial institutions in the New York region that have catered to the taxi industry, Sterling National Bank and the Melrose Credit Union, according to business records and people with knowledge of the matter, including a banker who reviewed the transactions.

Federal investigators in New York are seeking to determine whether Mr. Cohen misrepresented the value of his assets to obtain the loans, which exceed $20 million.

They are also examining how he handled the income from his taxi medallions and whether he failed to report it to the Internal Revenue Service.

The two lenders were cited in the search warrants for raids that federal agents conducted this spring on Mr. Cohen’s office, home and a hotel room where he was staying, several of the people familiar with the matter have said.

Sterling received a grand jury subpoena seeking records related to the loans, one of the people said.

There is no indication that either bank suffered a loss as a result of the loans or that Mr. Cohen missed payments, which are ordinarily important aspects in a bank fraud case. While bank fraud without a loss is rarely charged on its own, it is sometimes charged in conjunction with other crimes, which may be what happens in Mr. Cohen’s case.

At this late stage of the inquiry, it is still possible that Mr. Cohen may plead guilty rather than face an indictment. He has hinted publicly and has stated explicitly in private that he is eager to tell prosecutors what he knows in exchange for leniency.

A cooperation agreement would likely include a provision that Mr. Cohen also provide information to the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, who is investigating possible involvement by the Trump campaign in Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election.

It is unclear whether the prosecutors and Mr. Cohen’s lawyers have had detailed discussions about a potential cooperation deal, but it is unlikely that the government would bring charges without having done so.

But if a plea deal is not reached, either because Mr. Cohen and prosecutors cannot agree on the terms or because prosecutors determine he does not have valuable information or is not credible, the government would likely seek to bring charges well before the midterm elections.

Hugging a Vanillite will give you frostbite.
CookingCat Since: Jul, 2018
#252579: Aug 19th 2018 at 4:15:54 PM

John Oliver is much better than Bill Maher. For one, John is actually funny and isn't so serious like Bill Maher is most of the time. He's not as pessimistic as Maher and his guests, his British accent is also much easier to listen to than Bill Maher's old man American one, and he's not an old coot. Too bad my grandfather puts Bill Maher on TV ever Friday night...

Edited by CookingCat on Aug 19th 2018 at 4:18:44 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#252580: Aug 19th 2018 at 4:19:26 PM

What would a christian Fundamentalist do if they became president? All the power of the United States at their beck and call,there's congress sure,but they can still do a lot even with them

And unlike Trump,this guy isn't a raging buffoon.For now he's biding his time,he knows he can't make waves while Trump is in office

There are a few problems with this, firstly the assumption that he'd have a Republican Congress at his back is highly questionable. The only way I could imagine Trump impeached and removed would be if there was a Democratic Congress with Republican defections, thus a President Pence would probably have a highly hostile Democratic Congress. Thus limiting the domestic damage he could cause.

Secondly as the Vice President of a disgraced and removed President Pence would completely lack any form of political capital, he would most likely just be keeping the seat warm for Democratic candidate come 2020.

So no I don't see any reason to believe that Pence would be worse or much worse then the current status-quo, at-least Trump wouldn't be around to cause mass damage through trade wars and destroying our soft power through his lack of anything approaching diplomatic instinct.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Aug 19th 2018 at 7:19:40 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#252581: Aug 19th 2018 at 4:35:52 PM

What I was driving at before, but apparently wasn't clear enough about, is that talking about whether Pence is better or worse than Trump is misguided, because the choice isn't 'Pence or Trump', it's 'Pence, or Trump and Pence.'

Like, who do you think is running things when Trump is golfing or going to a rally? Hell, do you imagine Trump has the patience do much of any of the everyday work of running the country?

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#252582: Aug 19th 2018 at 4:41:51 PM

My view is simple.

Trump has to go.

Afterward, we can deal with Pence.

If we can impeach both since Pence is probably neck deep in corruption as well then so much the better but if we're a functioning democratic state then criminals have to be prosecuted versus letting the Kingpin stay in power because the Owl would be worse if he took over.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Aug 19th 2018 at 4:43:14 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#252583: Aug 19th 2018 at 4:45:55 PM

[up][up] If that's what Pence is doing, he hasn't made it all too evident. We've mostly seen the Trumpian fixation on immigration, Pence's signature issues are "sexual deviance", destroying all Muslim-majority countries, and abortion. He'd sign an EO banning sodomy or something the second he sat down at the president's desk.

Edited by archonspeaks on Aug 19th 2018 at 4:45:22 AM

They should have sent a poet.
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#252584: Aug 19th 2018 at 4:54:22 PM

> There are a few problems with this, firstly the assumption that he'd have a Republican Congress at his back is highly questionable.

Your right of course,it is highly questionable to suggest that in event of Trump being impreached that the Republicans would still be holding the house and senate,however for the Democrats to gain control of the senate and house they need to pull off the highly hoped for 'Blue Wave' which would be a dream come true for them really

However,the republicans could still be control of the house and impeach him,if only to replace him with Pence so they can hold on to power

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#252585: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:09:30 PM

[up][up]Because signing an EO targeting muslim countries sure wasn't one of the first things Trump did when in office or anything...

And, I mean, both you, me and Pence know that the kind of thing Pence wants to do wouldn't be accomplished easily or overnight, and will be easier to pull off if there isn't significant media attention drawn to it. Like if, for example, the media's attention was drawn to a certain loud-mouthed buffoon's constant antics instead.

unknowing from somewhere.. Since: Mar, 2014
#252586: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:10:41 PM

In my opinion I feel trump is better becuase he end hurting the repubican more and more with is toxic brand, Pence can stop that by virtue of not being trump.

"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#252587: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:11:06 PM

[up][up] An EO botched by Trump's own incompetence, an issue Pence would not have. For all of his truly vile beliefs, he's a capable political operator.

He has a far more radical ideology than Trump, and is capable enough to pull it off. Having his hands on the levers of power would be disastrous.

Edited by archonspeaks on Aug 19th 2018 at 5:11:13 AM

They should have sent a poet.
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#252588: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:16:11 PM

More disastrous than the only thing between him and the levers of power being a easily-manipulated moron who prefers to leave all the actual work to other people and is also really dangerous in his own right?

Again, do you imagine there's this mountain of stuff that Pence wants to implement but can't because Trump just won't stop standing up him and telling him no? What exactly do you imagine is stopping him from just doing whatever he wants right now?

TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#252589: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:22:04 PM

And now they're still trying to go after Gunn because the court of public opinion declared, "Yeah, he said some awful shit, but come on. He's not actually a pedophile. You've got no proof of that." Which didn't really satisfy their narrative of "THE LEFT DEFENDS PEDOPHILES AND RAPISTS TOO."

The Right has been trying really hard to find heinous left-leaning people that the Left is willing to rally around and defend despite their crimes, but they keep coming up short because we legitimately don't want awful people in our party. They can't conceive the notion of a moral stance that isn't a political ploy to win votes.

There may be a bit of Blue-and-Orange Morality about it too, I've heard a couple of times that studies show that Liberals and Conservatives tend to have different values and things they most respect. For Conservatives loyalty to people and the in-group comes above nearly all other ethical concerns, so they tend to defend their own against outside accusation reflexively, even if they believe or know the accusation to have merit.

They may then be tending to expect the same of us, because it's what they'd do and how they think. Sadly, the fact that Liberals don't engage in that behavior may not show us as having moral high ground or what we would hope as they interpret it through their own values and moral lens, me may just look like spineless, weak, and amoral.

I've heard that an attempt to impeach trump would only ensure his reelection, does this sound probable?

Well, it's the theory that the same way Clinton won a lot more sympathy during the course of the impeachment process, so would Trump, as it would motivate his base and seem like an overreach to others. It probably would motivate the Conservative base, since as I mentioned above, Loyalty to others/the in-group is one of the highest Conservative values, (at least as proposed by things like the Moral Foundations psychological theory, as is deference to/respect for authority, a nice double whammy for riling people up) but whether that would extend beyond the base to Independents and people that are normally politically apathetic is definitely an open question, since in general they're much less likely to approve of Trump than they did with Clinton back in the day, and the nature of the charges would be very different.

I think that as things stand at the moment it's a bad move to push for impeachment on a pragmatic level. If Democrats were miraculously to both take the House and wind every single Senate race this year, (including the ones where they stand no chance, like in Utah against Mitt Romney) they'd have the House, (where you need a simple majority to vote to bring charges) and 55 votes in the Senate, where we'd need a 2/3 majority, (66 or more likely 67 senators, depending on what source you read) to convict on impeachment.

I've said this in past on here but I'll say it again; show me the 12 Republican senators that you think you can convince to vote to impeach Trump between January of 2019 and November of 2020, (without something drastic and potentially catastrophic to the continued existence of the country being done by Trump) especially since a lot of Trump's biggest critics among Republican senators, (Flake, Corker) will be retired by that point, McCain may be dead or too ill to travel for a vote, Romney, another potential critic and anti-Trump Republican (although Romney has frequently had difficulty finding his spine on such matters) would have never been voted into office under this scenario, etc.

McCain might do it if he's able, but whether he will be is a big question. Susan Collins? Rob Portman? Shelley Moore Capito? There's not one of those names I'd say I'm 100% confident in, and after that my level of confidence drops really hard and really fast. And that's in a scenario when Republicans just suffered devastating losses. Without that, if things more less stay as they are now and you need 16 or 17 names instead? Saying it's unlikely is a major understatement.

Of course, that's also dependent on Trump not majorly escalating his pattern of destruction. If that happens things might be different, but I don't think anyone would enjoy the sheer terribleness that Trump would have commit for it to get to that point.

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#252590: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:25:16 PM

[up][up] What's stopping him is Trump's incompetence, random fixations and general belligerence. We know that the White House is far from a smoothly-oiled machine right now and struggles to even get done the things Trump wants done, and we haven't seen any of the policy items that would be the cornerstones of a Pence presidency.

Pence is a far more dangerous individual than Trump. Someone mentioned further up that he's a true beliver, and that's spot on. He's one of the most aggressive dominionists to ever hold political office, real "American Taliban" type stuff.

Edited by archonspeaks on Aug 19th 2018 at 5:24:58 AM

They should have sent a poet.
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#252591: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:25:57 PM

[up][up]I would argue that in the admittedly unlikely scenario where the Republican lose every senate race in the country come November, all of the GOP senators up for re-election in 2020 would be decidedly uncomfortable with the idea of running on the same ballot as Trump.

Edited by Gilphon on Aug 19th 2018 at 8:30:36 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#252592: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:29:59 PM

[up]This. If things go very badly in the midterms and there's reason to believe it will get worse for them then I could easily imagine Republican senators thinking very hard about the pro's and con's of removing Trump

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#252593: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:36:15 PM

Oh, and while I maintain that 'is Pence better or worse than Trump' is the wrong question, I also feel that Trump is considerably more dangerous. I can't imagine Pence attempting to turn the country into a dictatorship, with daily rants about how anyone who disagree with him is the enemy of the people. I don't imagine Pence completely hamstring's the government's ability to do literally anything. I think that, overall, Pence is dangerous in the way a serial killer is dangerous, while Trump is dangerous in the way a hurricane is dangerous.

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#252594: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:37:44 PM

Pence tried to start a state-run media outlet while he was governor here, so I’d hold back on that optimism.

Hodor2 Since: Jan, 2015
#252595: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:41:32 PM

Here's my two cents on Trump and Pence:

The conditions that would allow for Trump to be removed from office- Democratic control of Congress and exposure of major scandal- are such that Pence would be weakened as a President. Also important is that Pence lacks the cult of personality that Trump has/has no populist veneer, which makes him easier to oppose in some ways.

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#252596: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:43:51 PM

[up][up][up] Pence openly advocates turning the US into a theocratic state, so I can definitely see him trying to establish a dictatorship.

They should have sent a poet.
TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#252597: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:47:13 PM

I would argue that in the admittedly unlikely scenario where the Republican lose every senate race in the country come November, all of the GOP senators up for re-election in 2020 would be decidedly uncomfortable with the idea of running on the same ballot as Trump.

If things go very badly in the midterms and there's reason to believe it will get worse for them then I could easily imagine Republican senators thinking very hard about the pro's and con's of removing Trump

They might have second thoughts, but would it overcome group loyalty, worries about a furious Trump base turning on them, the certainty that division among themselves would certainly lose the presidency and probably suffer further losses in Congress... yeah, they’ll stick with what they’ve got. When you’re going through hell, keep going will be their motto.

Edited by TheWanderer on Aug 19th 2018 at 8:50:29 AM

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#252598: Aug 19th 2018 at 5:54:24 PM

Does it matter if Pence would be worse?

It's a matter of the law.

Not a popularity contest. You can't just let him get away with it.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#252599: Aug 19th 2018 at 6:00:52 PM

[up]Well said.

Ultimately this is what actually matters, if Trump is removable then it would've come out that he did some serious things and as such it doesn't matter how bad Pence is or isn't letting Trump leave is simply what must be done.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Aug 19th 2018 at 9:00:42 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
TacticalFox88 from USA Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Dating the Doctor
#252600: Aug 19th 2018 at 8:54:19 PM

link

Per @jonathanvswan - GOP strategists are concerned the base doesn’t appreciate the threat of a blue wave, due to their mistrust of polls/media. From @jpiacenza - only 28% (!) of GOP voters said they would trust a poll indicating Dems would take the house:

hahahahahahaha

New Survey coming this weekend!

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