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Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#183376: Apr 18th 2017 at 6:09:23 AM

Honestly, I wouldn't blame anyone for staying home in a Gabbard VS Trump/Pence/whoever race.

On the subject of Trump, the "prediction professor" (who has successfully called every election since 1984) now predicts (in what he admits is a less scientific progress) that Trump will be impeached before the 2020 election.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/allan-lichtman-prediction-prof-trump-impeachment-1.4073261

Legal and presidential scholars are less convinced.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#183377: Apr 18th 2017 at 6:12:24 AM

Honestly, if Gabbard somehow becomes the Democratic Party candidate for 2020, I'll still probably vote straight Democratic, but I will feel sick afterwards.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#183378: Apr 18th 2017 at 6:15:17 AM

[up]Wouldn't blame ya. I'd also stock up on your booze of choice, because Election Night would suck either way.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
TacticalFox88 from USA Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Dating the Doctor
#183379: Apr 18th 2017 at 6:52:42 AM

Someone like her being the first female President is a sick joke.

Only reason she's getting a pass because A) she's attractive and B) endorsed Bernie.

Epitome of the projection of the radical left.

New Survey coming this weekend!
CenturyEye Tell Me, Have You Seen the Yellow Sign? from I don't know where the Yith sent me this time... Since: Jan, 2017 Relationship Status: Having tea with Cthulhu
Tell Me, Have You Seen the Yellow Sign?
#183380: Apr 18th 2017 at 7:22:36 AM

Crunch Time in Atlanta! and to start us off...
Breaking: Voters’ personal data at risk in Cobb theft

State officials are investigating the theft last week of equipment from a Cobb County precinct manager’s car that could make every Georgia voters’ personal information vulnerable to theft.

The equipment, used to check-in voters at the polls, was stolen Saturday evening, Secretary of State Brian Kemp said Monday.

Cobb County elections director Janine Eveler said the stolen machine, known as an Express Poll unit, cannot be used to fraudulently vote in Tuesday’s election but that it does contain a copy of Georgia’s statewide voter file.

“We have managed that so that what’s stolen could not impact the election,” Eveler said.

While the file includes drivers’ license numbers, addresses and other data, it does not include Social Security numbers, Eveler said.

But, she said, “the poll book that was stolen did have a flash card with a voter list on it. But, it does require some knowledge or expertise to use machine to retrieve the information.”

Cobb County Police and the State Election Board are investigating.

Kemp said it was “unacceptable” that Cobb officials waited two days to notify him of the theft.

“We have opened an investigation, and we are taking steps to ensure that it has no effect on the election tomorrow,” Kemp said in a statement. “I am confident that the results will not be compromised.”

Nearly 55,000 votes were cast in early voting ahead of Tuesday’s election, the culmination of a campaign that brought national attention to the state.

The comments inspire a mixture of laughter and crying. They boil down to:
  • the GOP did it to credit a fake news story if Ossoff wins
  • Pelosi organized the theft to stuff ballot boxes with her name
  • the Russians did it.
I recall one person pointing out that one might be concerned about their personal data, and alot of others commenting "still voting" so not completely hopeless. I think...

edited 18th Apr '17 7:32:03 AM by CenturyEye

Look with century eyes... With our backs to the arch And the wreck of our kind We will stare straight ahead For the rest of our lives
DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#183381: Apr 18th 2017 at 7:42:14 AM

Someone like her being the first female President is a sick joke.

She'd also be the first President who is not Christian (in any sense, including Christian-based Deist), as she's a Hindu (and it would also make her the first Asian American President).

I'd still vote for her, just because we need to get rid of Trump ASAP. And even if she isn't as Progressive as people would like, she'd still make a hell of a better President then Trump.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#183382: Apr 18th 2017 at 7:45:06 AM

[up] That is why I will vote for her if necessary. She will be better than Trump in the sense that having three limbs lopped off is better than losing all of them.

edited 18th Apr '17 7:45:17 AM by M84

Disgusted, but not surprised
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#183383: Apr 18th 2017 at 7:47:50 AM

Domestically? Probably (her worst impulses on Muslims and LGBT issues would be curtailed by her own party). Foreign policy wise? Maybe marginally.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
AmbarSonofDeshar Since: Jan, 2010
#183384: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:01:47 AM

@Tactical Fox

Epitome of the projection of the radical left.

Don't call them the radical left. There's nothing radical about them. Call them what they are—messianic twits. They haven't latched onto her because of any sort of radical policy proposal, they've latched onto her because she said nice things about the Progressive Messiah (TM).

These people aren't radicals in any sense of the word. In many cases they're actually further to the right then us dreadful Establishment centrists, what with the appeals to the WWC and tolerance of Gabbard's Islamaphobia, homophobia, and dictator apologism.

@Caspase

I can only conclude from your response that you didn't bother to read what I wrote in that post. For that matter I can only conclude you haven't bothered to read what I've written in the last several posts, given your cracks about "good little centrists".

The problem with the young people Mad Skillz idolizes isn't that they're radical, it's that they're obsessed with a messiah. They pick a single politician and pin all their hopes to that person, while decrying anyone who opposes that person as some sort of sellout. It's the same thing that they do with bands they like, and it's an attitude that does, demonstrably, die as they mature.

@Mad Skillz

Denouncing scientists as corrupt now, are we? Your climate change example is utterly ridiculous given that 99+ percent of scientists cannot and will not be conned, cajoled, or bribed into supporting the notion that it's a hoax. You want to try coming up with an actual example?

The pot calling the kettle black.

Devastating retort there.

They were important enough to make the difference in the general election.

No, they weren't. The youth vote actually getting out and supporting any candidate is an aberration. 9/10 times they stay home. Them staying home this election was entirely predictable because it's what they almost always do.

You're taking it as a given that they won't vote and so we should ignore what and who they like thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This is not a winning strategy.

Neither is wasting time promising them shit that they won't turn out to vote for anyway. Decisions are made by those who show up. The youth vote does not show up.

I know the laws of my land. You can vote in the primary if you can prove your birthday comes before the general election.

Which is why those seventeen year olds turned out in droves and gave the primaries to Sanders. Oh wait, they didn't do that, did they? They stayed home, because they always stay home. That's who they are and what they do.

@Dingo Walley

I'd still vote for her, just because we need to get rid of Trump ASAP. And even if she isn't as Progressive as people would like, she'd still make a hell of a better President then Trump.

Can't say I agree with that. She'd only be better in the sense that the Democratic Party wouldn't let her get away with as much shit as the Republicans let Trump get away with—and that would only matter if she got a Democratic Congress or Senate. Put her in the situation Obama was in, with the Republicans controlling the Houses, and she'll show herself for the reactionary grifter she's always been.

edited 18th Apr '17 8:03:56 AM by AmbarSonofDeshar

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#183385: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:08:49 AM

They pick a single politician and pin all their hopes to that person, while decrying anyone who opposes that person as some sort of sellout.

They also decry that same messiah when they fail to live up to their impossible standards, look at the hate Obama has gotten from a number of young people for failing to achieve everything he set out to do. He has gotten a lot of flack for not being able to magically override 6 years of Republican obstruction and generations of political inertia.

On Gabbard, I'd note that she would pose a serious risk of turning voters away from Democrats for generations. The same way we're hoping Trump will cost the Republicans elections in the future due to reputation damage Gabbard could do the same to the Dems.

edited 18th Apr '17 8:10:50 AM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#183386: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:28:43 AM

Can't say I agree with that. She'd only be better in the sense that the Democratic Party wouldn't let her get away with as much shit as the Republicans let Trump get away with—and that would only matter if she got a Democratic Congress or Senate. Put her in the situation Obama was in, with the Republicans controlling the Houses, and she'll show herself for the reactionary grifter she's always been.

At this point, a Blue Dog is 1000x better then the Alt-Right-turn-Neo-Con Trump.

Also, I doubt highly she's a Reactionary. Grifter, sure, but nothing I've seen from her is out-and-out Reactionary (other then perhaps her Isolationism stance, but Sanders leans that way, too).

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#183387: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:31:15 AM

[up]Isolationism bordering on apologist tendencies, a questionable at best record on LGBT issues, Islamophobia, links to nasty Hindu-nationalist groups abroad. Probably anti-trade as well, but on that I'm not sure.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#183388: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:33:13 AM

@Ambar: See how Obama does in the 2009 and 2012 general elections if you eliminate youth voters entirely. I did read what you had to say, by the way, I just disagree vehemently with your insistence that you don't take issue with the policies supported by young voters, given your argument is "the policies young voters support today are totally meaningless, they'll grow out of it and stop supporting such nonsense". That's essentially a roundabout way of saying they'll become conservative (in the traditional sense of conservatism) as they age, no matter how you spin it and insist that's not what your trying to say.

Preusmably millennials will be less fixated on particular politicians, but your argument that the policies they support today are totally meaningless and its all just a fad to us is disingenuous and frankly a bit insulting.

edited 18th Apr '17 8:35:24 AM by CaptainCapsase

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#183389: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:33:33 AM

If, by some crazy chance, Gabbard got the Democratic nomination in 2020, I'd say she'd have an even chance of being one of the few people who would fail to recover the White House from Trump. That's saying something.

[up] Capsace, young people tend to be balls out stupid politically. I was one; I know. It's not their fault; they lack experience to temper their idealism, be it left, right, or something else, leading them to latch onto fringe movements and unicorns. Which is not to say that they should not participate — that's the best way to get less ignorant — but that if you're relying on them for a political movement, that movement is going to share their ignorance, and that's not good for anyone.

edited 18th Apr '17 8:36:17 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#183390: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:36:18 AM

[up] That's not what's being argued though; it's about whether the policies young voters support today have any bearing on the political beliefs they'll hold going into the future. Study after study suggests people's political beliefs are largely set in stone by the time they're in their early 20s, so while people in my generation will undoubtedly become more pragmatic about pursuing a political agenda, the policy positions aren't going to shift in the way Ambar seems to assume they will.

edited 18th Apr '17 8:40:09 AM by CaptainCapsase

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#183391: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:36:57 AM

I somewhat resent that assertion, Fighteer. 'specially if not backed by some statistical and psephological analysis.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#183392: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:40:08 AM

Let me put it this way: when I was in my twenties, I was absolutely certain how the world worked and how we could best fix it for everyone. It took me well into my thirties to realize just how wrong I was. You need a mix of enthusiasm and experience to formulate good policy: enthusiasm without experience leads to chasing unicorns and windmills; and experience without enthusiasm leads to cynicism and hideboundedness.

Obviously, of all the ideas out there foaming in our political dialogue, some accurately describe reality and thus can work if applied. But sorting those out from wishful thinking requires experience and the willingness to critically evaluate one's ideas.

edited 18th Apr '17 8:42:51 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#183393: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:41:27 AM

[up] Your own experience (starting out as a libertarian and shifting to center-left positions) is not representative of the general population based on empirical evidence, among them the numerous studies on political affiliation over time by Pew Research

edited 18th Apr '17 8:42:37 AM by CaptainCapsase

Wryte Since: Jul, 2010
#183394: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:42:24 AM

See how Obama does in the 2009 and 2012 general elections if you eliminate youth voters entirely.

He specifically pointed out that the youth turn out for Obama was a historic statistical anomaly.

I just disagree vehemently with your insistence that you don't take issue with the policies supported by young voters, given your argument is "the policies young voters support today are totally meaningless, they'll grow out of it and stop supporting such nonsense". That's essentially a roundabout way of saying they'll become conservative (in the traditional sense of conservatism) as they age, no matter how you spin it and insist that's not what your trying to say.

That is literally the opposite of what he said. He said they will tend to favor the same policies, but will be more realistic about how to implement them and stop hunting for unicorn candidates.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#183395: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:44:04 AM

[up] Ambar was distinctly arguing that youtth voters support for Sanders is completely irrelevant in terms of how they'll behave in future elections, and that's what I'm vehemently disagreeing with. In all likelyhood they'll be more pragmatic about chosing candidates, but I definitely think the sort of policies put forwards by Sanders will remain quite popular among my generation, with more thought put into them but no less transformative in their intent.

edited 18th Apr '17 8:45:41 AM by CaptainCapsase

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#183396: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:45:04 AM

[up][up][up] The funny thing is that, while I talked libertarian, I voted Democrat, because I believed in the practical version, not the militant "get out of my face" version currently masquerading in its place. I still hold some of those same ideals, but experience taught me just how impossible they are without changing human nature itself.

My mother was (well, is, but I'm looking back) fairly liberal for most of her life, and my father tended toward the libertarian-conservative mindset. I have no idea if that contributed to their troubled marriage, but the point is that I was exposed to both views and had the opportunity to choose what I believed in.

[up] The point is that, if the youth vote is going to consistently chase unicorns, then it cannot be relied on to choose sound candidates, on either side.

edited 18th Apr '17 8:47:52 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#183397: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:46:55 AM

[up] Indeed, but we're (or at least that's what I'm on about) talking about future election cycles in relation to today's young voters, not future generations of youth voters.

edited 18th Apr '17 8:47:42 AM by CaptainCapsase

Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#183398: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:47:44 AM

Well look at the scientists that deny climate change for example that Fox News cites at times.

You should bear in mind that when the anti-climate change crowd wheel out a scientist to defend their position, the person they've wheeled out is usually either a pseudoscientist or a genuine scientist in the wrong field whose position reveals they know very little about the field of science they're criticising (it's usually physicists or engineers that get wheeled out).

For example, take one of the most famous sceptics, Willard Anthony Watts. He is cited as being a meteorologist who opposes man-made climate change, and he did work for years in the role of a television/radio meteorologist. He initially went to college to do electrical engineering and did a couple of meteorology classes on the side while there. However, he did not complete college and has no degree of any kind. He isn't a trained meteorologist at all, and has no more knowledge of the subject than you'd expect from an experienced television weatherman.

The other big name on the sceptical side, who is also consistently introduced as a Ph D scientist, is Bjorn Lomberg. He does actually have a Ph D in a science subject - political science.

That isn't to say that people who are not scientists in the relevant field cannot have very good points to make or sound knowledge to offer, but they have to be investigated on a case by case basis to see if they understand the subject they're talking about and whether the points they're making genuinely are sound, and whether or not the correct scientific field has already addressed the subject that being discussed (which is the case for most of the sceptical arguments made, e.g., the solar activity argument or the global warming pause debate).

edited 18th Apr '17 8:54:26 AM by Wyldchyld

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#183399: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:50:23 AM

I did read what you had to say,

your argument is "the policies young voters support today are totally meaningless, they'll grow out of it and stop supporting such nonsense".

These two statements are directly contradictory to each other Caspase, the contradiction is visible to anyone who reads Amber's posts, so please try reading again, because you're clearly misreading.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#183400: Apr 18th 2017 at 8:52:26 AM

As far as issues of ethics the sciences goes, while it's significantly less of a problem in politics, conflicts of interest are an issue, and there are a depressingly large number of cases of data being suppressed, as was the case with medical data on the risks of smoking and early climate change research conducted by energy companies, because the interests commissioning a study didn't like the outcome. Plus the occasional cases of data being outright fabricated that come up here and there. The inherent subjectivity you get in the social sciences compared to the physical sciences must make it an absolute nightmare to sort those sorts of things out in fields like economics and psychology and so on.

[up] I think I'm presenting my argument wrong then. I'm arguing that Ambar is wrong to simply dismiss young voters as politically irrelevant and ignorant, especially when we're talking about young voters who will be in the core voting age a few cycles down the line.

edited 18th Apr '17 8:57:09 AM by CaptainCapsase


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