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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
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Definitely. If it wasn't for voter suppression, we'd all be awaiting President Clinton's inauguration right now, and looking forward to a brighter future.
Organizations like the ACLU are trying to fight back against it, but they can only do so much. And when the GOP gain control of the Supreme Court, then...
I think what needs to happen is the public needs to start making some serious noise. Put the pressure on, through methods including but not limited to mass protest. 87 voting machines conveniently broke in Detroit. Hundreds of thousands of people - if not more - were purged nationwide from the ballots because of Crosscheck. People ought to be marching in the streets and demanding their votes be counted.
There's a bit of middle ground between "strongman authoritarian" and "wimps who roll over at the first sign of opposition," which is essentially what we have now.
edited 20th Dec '16 1:21:16 PM by RBluefish
"We'll take the next chance, and the next, until we win, or the chances are spent."
Clinton was obliterated in terms of social media presence both in the primaries and the general, and fell flat in the Midwest in both elections. She was a weak candidate from a party that's weak outside ofurban centers with a coalition that's so balkanized that it collapses like a house of cards without a masterful soothsayer at the head of the ticket. So yes, I think there are very real grounds to criticize, because Sanders campaign certainly presents avenues for improvement the first two problems, either of which could have turned the election in favor of Clinton.
Long term the party is still in deep shit; if the Republicans manage to nominate somebody who can contest the black community at the same rate that they contest other minorities (30:70ish), or if Gen Z turns out to be conservative leaning as some people assert, most states become untenable for the democrats.
edited 20th Dec '16 1:34:25 PM by CaptainCapsase
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If you're in a state with laws that cause or enable voter suppression (and gerrymandering), try and get enough people to throw a class-action lawsuit against the state government, if you're not, try to find out if there are any currently active ones in any state, and donate some money to pay for the expenses.
Why would gen Z go conservative?
edited 20th Dec '16 1:35:23 PM by IFwanderer
1 2 We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be. -KV
They were raised under the more ineffectual part of Obama's presidency, and if Trump does decently they'll be far easier to contest than Gen Y. Barring a modern Reagan or a major reform of the party message, I doubt they'll be strongly GOP leaning, but I wouldn't rule out either.
Before you wax on about how obvious it is Trump is going to fail, I'd advise against predicating your electoral strategy on the other party failing unless you have the means to make that a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy through obstruction, which the democrats do not, even if we ignore the obvious quandary that avenue presents.
edited 20th Dec '16 1:38:40 PM by CaptainCapsase
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Although you're definitely right about not getting complacent, I'd be more worried about him being presented as decent than actually being so (meaning, media wants another horse race, and Goebbelbart gets more influential, spinning everything he does into looking good).
Also, is anyone in the thread from Virginia? there's gonna be special races to replace three state representatives leaving their spots in January, so you may want to contribute
.
edited 20th Dec '16 1:46:00 PM by IFwanderer
1 2 We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be. -KVYes, and Obama's second term is ending "decent" enough ... and Trump "won" anyhow. Dude, you are way overselling the economy as the sole influencing factor. Besides, Congress. What makes you think they'll grow economic understanding?
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman![]()
Trump in 2020 will have the incumbent advantage, he will likely have a decent if not good economy, and a big chunk of the electorate will have gotten used to the blatant conflicts of interest. It's also conceivable that he'll have a major foreign policy achievement under his belt, namely a new detente with Russia, one that might very well last just long enough for him to be reelected.
Under the "Keys to the White House" model of presidential elections, which was one of the only ones that successfully predicted Trump, that makes him incredibly hard to unseat.
edited 20th Dec '16 1:53:30 PM by CaptainCapsase
There is no guarantee that the big infrastructure project will actually stimulate the economy given how it is structured and tax cuts are likely to have a minimal effect. Not to mention that all of that is going to be offset by the dismantling of the social safety net and other spending cuts, and the Fed seems poised to continue raising rates for the foreseeable future.
There is pretty big potential for a perfect storm of terrible economic policy, and while I concede that all of it may not happen, not all of it needs to happen for there to be a big downturn.
edited 20th Dec '16 1:57:58 PM by Mio
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Or he may screw the pooch so badly that he gets impeached. Or he may conspire with Republicans to tear down the democratic institutions of our country so that the next elections will be as "free" as the ones held in Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Or he may arrange for a nuclear war with China.
edited 20th Dec '16 1:55:28 PM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"![]()
Until the bubble actually pops, I'd assume things are going to implode just long enough after Trump's presidency for the popular conscience not to blame him for it. Especially if the spending cuts don't actually go through because Trump knows it will hurt his popularity, and as long as the GOP base loves him he's impeachment proof.
The point is we can't count on Trump to fail in ways that will be visible by the time of the 2020 elections.
edited 20th Dec '16 1:59:47 PM by CaptainCapsase
What is that electoral model and why are you so trusting of it, Capsase? "Women can never been presidents; there was never one!" also correctly predicts the election. And why are you ignoring Congress?
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
This is "Keys to the Whitehouse"
, it's gotten every election since 1984 correct, though the creator thought 2016 might be the year he needed to refactor it (he's not a fan of Trump obviously), and it's essentially based on the assumption that a presidential election is functionally a referendum on the effectiveness of the incumbent party over the last term.
As far as congress goes, the GOP doesn't have a 2/3rd majority, so they can't override a veto, and as I said earlier, so long as Trump remains popular among the GOP primary base, the party won't dare impeach him.
edited 20th Dec '16 2:03:14 PM by CaptainCapsase
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Trump hasn't yet indicated that he is not going to go along with Paul Ryan and his cohorts plans. It's possible that many of the deluded Trump supporters are right and he won't go through with it, but it seems just as possible (if not more) that he really doesn't care and will go along (or he may have even actually wanted that).
That being said I do agree that we can't just expect that Trump will fail and even if he does it may not be a dramatic enough of a failure to be impactful.
edited 20th Dec '16 2:03:50 PM by Mio
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Only from our perspective. China hawks are cheering, and ISIS will likely be gone one way or another by 2020, which is a plus for Trump even if his administration had almost nothing to do with it. The same goes for the decent economy he's inheriting from Obama.
edited 20th Dec '16 2:07:58 PM by CaptainCapsase

edited 20th Dec '16 1:19:32 PM by CaptainCapsase