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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
NH has only 4 electoral college votes, so it's not always about how many votes a state has.
Basically, there's a bunch of states that we can be virtually certain will vote for Clinton (based on polls and and how they've voted in previous presidential elections). There's another bunch that we can be virtually certain will vote for Trump. And then there's states that may lean one way or the other, but are basically up for grabs.
The states that are expected to definitely vote for Clinton have more electoral votes than the ones that will definitely vote for Trump - so Trump needs most of the "swing" states in order to win the election, whereas Clinton has more leeway.
If we assume that Trump isn't going to win any state where Clinton has a notable (e.g. 3+ points) lead in the polls, then Trump can't win the election without New Hampshire (and Florida, and North Carolina, and Ohio, and Nevada). If we relax those assumptions, he's got more options.
Florida's a big state, so if Clinton takes that one, Trump has essentially no way of winning even if he does win a state that favours Clinton more (e.g., Pennsylvania).
30% of the vote reporting in Virginia, and Trump's still ahead 54-41. That's way bigger news that states flipping back and forth when only 1% of the vote is counted.
EDIT: Fivethirtyeight is on it:
If you’re puzzling at the results in Virginia — more than a fifth of precincts are reporting and Trump leads by more than 10 points — don’t expect an upset there just yet. There’s still a ton of the vote left to report in Northern Virginia, specifically the heavily Democratic Washington D.C. suburbs.
edited 8th Nov '16 5:00:54 PM by Galadriel
Announced:
Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma
Vermont, Massachussetts, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware
Leading:
Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina
- Virginia (41:54)
New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida , Ohio
- Florida: 49:47 — 25% reporting
- Ohio: 52:43 — Columbus reporting, Cincinnati, Cleveland not reported
Other:
Pennsylvania
- Removing Democratic strongholds, Trump would need 28 States.
- North Carolina extending voting time in 8 precincts
Electoral College:
Clinton 68 | 37 Trump
edited 8th Nov '16 5:04:52 PM by lakingsif
OH MY GOD; MY PARENTS ARE GARDENIIIIINNNNGGGGG!!!!!It's rather annoying that they don't even pretend to wait until ballots are counted. The states just called for Clinton are strongly Democratic ones where the polls closed at 8pm - so based on the polling and the states' historical votes, the news networks are calling them before a single vote has been reported. I wish they'd wait until at least some of the numbers were in - like, don't call a state until 25% of the vote has been counted.
@noname: where'd you hear that? I'm still setting up my election mission control and need moar links
Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?Announced:
Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma, South Carolina
Vermont, Massachussetts, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, District of Columbia
Leading:
Virginia, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Texas
- Virginia (41:53) — 35% reporting
New Hampshire, North Carolina, Illinois, Florida , Ohio
- Florida: 49:48 — 29% reporting
- Ohio: 53:43
Other:
Pennsylvania
- Removing Democratic strongholds, Trump would need 28 States.
- North Carolina extending voting time in 8 precincts
Electoral College:
Clinton 68 | 37 Trump
edited 8th Nov '16 5:10:51 PM by lakingsif
OH MY GOD; MY PARENTS ARE GARDENIIIIINNNNGGGGG!!!!!NBC:
- For Clinton (75): CT, DE, DC, IL, MD, MA, NJ, RI VT
- For Trump (66): AL, IN, MS, KY, OK, SC, WV
- Too early: ME, NC, NH, PA, VA
- Too close: FL, GA, OH
Senate:
- Called for Democrat: CT (Blumenthal), IL (Duckworth - D GAIN), MD (Van Hollen), VT (Leahy)
- Called for Republican: AL (Shelby), KY (Paul), OH (Portman), OK (Lankford), SC (Scott)
- Too early/Too close: NC
Galadriel, the calls right after closing is supplemented by exit polling that's done earlier in the day. If exit polls aren't close or historically odd there really isn't a major reason not to once polls close.
The damned queen and the relentless knight.It also looks like Jason Kander (D) might win the Missouri Senate seat.
edited 8th Nov '16 5:07:48 PM by KarkatTheDalek
Oh God! Natural light!

edited 8th Nov '16 4:58:06 PM by Ramidel