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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#149726: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:57:55 PM

[up][up]Usually, it's red, but it's been purpling over the past few elections.

edited 8th Nov '16 4:58:06 PM by Ramidel

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#149727: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:58:39 PM

NH has only 4 electoral college votes, so it's not always about how many votes a state has.

Basically, there's a bunch of states that we can be virtually certain will vote for Clinton (based on polls and and how they've voted in previous presidential elections). There's another bunch that we can be virtually certain will vote for Trump. And then there's states that may lean one way or the other, but are basically up for grabs.

The states that are expected to definitely vote for Clinton have more electoral votes than the ones that will definitely vote for Trump - so Trump needs most of the "swing" states in order to win the election, whereas Clinton has more leeway.

If we assume that Trump isn't going to win any state where Clinton has a notable (e.g. 3+ points) lead in the polls, then Trump can't win the election without New Hampshire (and Florida, and North Carolina, and Ohio, and Nevada). If we relax those assumptions, he's got more options.

Florida's a big state, so if Clinton takes that one, Trump has essentially no way of winning even if he does win a state that favours Clinton more (e.g., Pennsylvania).

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#149728: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:59:10 PM

What's the best place to watch the coverage? I have BBC on a Youtube stream but they're not talking about the stuff you guys are mentioning.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#149729: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:00:02 PM

30% of the vote reporting in Virginia, and Trump's still ahead 54-41. That's way bigger news that states flipping back and forth when only 1% of the vote is counted.

EDIT: Fivethirtyeight is on it:

If you’re puzzling at the results in Virginia — more than a fifth of precincts are reporting and Trump leads by more than 10 points — don’t expect an upset there just yet. There’s still a ton of the vote left to report in Northern Virginia, specifically the heavily Democratic Washington D.C. suburbs.

edited 8th Nov '16 5:00:54 PM by Galadriel

lakingsif Since: Dec, 2012 Relationship Status: Wanna dance with somebody
#149730: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:00:11 PM

Announced:

Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma

Vermont, Massachussetts, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware

Leading:

Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina

  • Virginia (41:54)

New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida , Ohio

  • Florida: 49:47 — 25% reporting
  • Ohio: 52:43Columbus reporting, Cincinnati, Cleveland not reported

Other:

Pennsylvania

  • Removing Democratic strongholds, Trump would need 28 States.
  • North Carolina extending voting time in 8 precincts

Electoral College:

Clinton 68 | 37 Trump

edited 8th Nov '16 5:04:52 PM by lakingsif

OH MY GOD; MY PARENTS ARE GARDENIIIIINNNNGGGGG!!!!!
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#149731: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:00:45 PM

Hillary just got a ton of heavily Democrat states.

Oh God! Natural light!
AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#149732: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:01:08 PM

I have NBC and ABC on too, though I muted ABC because it's been mostly nothing talk in the last half hour.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#149733: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:01:18 PM

CNN is actually being pretty good with maps.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
FergardStratoavis A Fluff Ringer from Bellveins (Troper Knight) Relationship Status: A gay little love melody
A Fluff Ringer
#149736: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:02:29 PM

CBS News report that Florida, Pennyslvania and NH are tossups.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#149737: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:03:04 PM

It's rather annoying that they don't even pretend to wait until ballots are counted. The states just called for Clinton are strongly Democratic ones where the polls closed at 8pm - so based on the polling and the states' historical votes, the news networks are calling them before a single vote has been reported. I wish they'd wait until at least some of the numbers were in - like, don't call a state until 25% of the vote has been counted.

SatoshiBakura (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
FergardStratoavis A Fluff Ringer from Bellveins (Troper Knight) Relationship Status: A gay little love melody
A Fluff Ringer
#149739: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:04:10 PM

Clinton has 42 Electoral Votes, Trump has 51, CBS says.

NoName999 Since: May, 2011
#149740: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:04:27 PM

Kirk, R-Illonois, lost his Senate seat

thatguythere47 Since: Jul, 2010
#149741: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:05:35 PM

@noname: where'd you hear that? I'm still setting up my election mission control and need moar links

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#149742: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:05:38 PM

[up][up] Good, I was rooting for her.

edited 8th Nov '16 5:05:48 PM by KarkatTheDalek

Oh God! Natural light!
FergardStratoavis A Fluff Ringer from Bellveins (Troper Knight) Relationship Status: A gay little love melody
A Fluff Ringer
#149743: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:06:27 PM

Clinton now has 64 Elec Votes to Trump's 51, CBN says.

SatoshiBakura (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#149744: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:06:50 PM

[up]CNN says 68 Clinton, 48 Trump.

edited 8th Nov '16 5:07:12 PM by SatoshiBakura

lakingsif Since: Dec, 2012 Relationship Status: Wanna dance with somebody
#149745: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:06:51 PM

Announced:

Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma, South Carolina

Vermont, Massachussetts, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, District of Columbia

Leading:

Virginia, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Texas

  • Virginia (41:53) — 35% reporting

New Hampshire, North Carolina, Illinois, Florida , Ohio

  • Florida: 49:48 — 29% reporting
  • Ohio: 53:43

Other:

Pennsylvania

  • Removing Democratic strongholds, Trump would need 28 States.
  • North Carolina extending voting time in 8 precincts

Electoral College:

Clinton 68 | 37 Trump

edited 8th Nov '16 5:10:51 PM by lakingsif

OH MY GOD; MY PARENTS ARE GARDENIIIIINNNNGGGGG!!!!!
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#149746: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:06:53 PM

NBC:

  • For Clinton (75): CT, DE, DC, IL, MD, MA, NJ, RI VT
  • For Trump (66): AL, IN, MS, KY, OK, SC, WV
  • Too early: ME, NC, NH, PA, VA
  • Too close: FL, GA, OH

Senate:

  • Called for Democrat: CT (Blumenthal), IL (Duckworth - D GAIN), MD (Van Hollen), VT (Leahy)
  • Called for Republican: AL (Shelby), KY (Paul), OH (Portman), OK (Lankford), SC (Scott)
  • Too early/Too close: NC

Galadriel, the calls right after closing is supplemented by exit polling that's done earlier in the day. If exit polls aren't close or historically odd there really isn't a major reason not to once polls close.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
IFwanderer use political terms to describe, not insult from Earth Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
use political terms to describe, not insult
#149747: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:07:03 PM

538 says Kander may win MO's Senate chair.

1 2 We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be. -KV
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#149748: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:07:24 PM

It also looks like Jason Kander (D) might win the Missouri Senate seat.

[nja]

edited 8th Nov '16 5:07:48 PM by KarkatTheDalek

Oh God! Natural light!
AngelusNox Warder of the damned from The guard of the gates of oblivion Since: Dec, 2014 Relationship Status: Married to the job
Warder of the damned
#149749: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:08:29 PM

I think my sphincter can relax a bit now.

Hillary's results look bright.

Inter arma enim silent leges
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#149750: Nov 8th 2016 at 5:09:05 PM

I'll only relax once she hits 270.

Oh God! Natural light!

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