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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#149701: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:51:28 PM

[up][up][up][up] Votes in rural areas get counted earlier since there's less of them. We're not really close to being done yet.

edited 8th Nov '16 4:51:47 PM by Draghinazzo

IFwanderer use political terms to describe, not insult from Earth Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
use political terms to describe, not insult
#149702: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:51:30 PM

They have only called Vermont for her, but called Kentucky, Indiana and WV for the annoying orange.

EDIT: [nja][nja][nja][nja][nja][nja]

edited 8th Nov '16 4:53:53 PM by IFwanderer

1 2 We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be. -KV
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#149703: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:51:44 PM

NBC:

  • For Clinton (3): VT
  • For Trump (33): IN, KY, SC, WV
  • Too early: NC, VA
  • Too close: GA, OH

Senate:

  • Called for Democrat: VT (Leahy)
  • Called for Republican: KY (Paul), OH (Portman), SC (Scott)
  • Too early/Too close: NC

edited 8th Nov '16 4:53:28 PM by megarockman

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
lakingsif Since: Dec, 2012 Relationship Status: Wanna dance with somebody
#149704: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:51:44 PM

[up]it'll take about 10 minutes for enough to be reporting to have a legitimate "leading" verdict. Half an hour for anything you could project, though.

OH MY GOD; MY PARENTS ARE GARDENIIIIINNNNGGGGG!!!!!
AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#149705: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:52:29 PM

Because only small rural states have reported so far. And those states tend to lean red.

SciFiSlasher from Absolutely none of your business. Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
#149706: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:52:43 PM

Clinton is leading in NH.

Would someone be willing to give me a basic explanation as to why even losing one of those swing states like FL or NH is enough to certify a candidate's victory?

"Somehow the hated have to walk a tightrope, while those who hate do not."
rmctagg09 The Wanderer from Brooklyn, NY (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: I won't say I'm in love
The Wanderer
#149707: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:53:28 PM

They have some of the largest amounts of EC votes.

For instance, as others have stated, if Hillary wins Ohio it's basically over for Trump.

edited 8th Nov '16 4:54:03 PM by rmctagg09

Hugging a Vanillite will give you frostbite.
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#149708: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:53:30 PM

Because some strongly Republican states had their polls close fairly early and their votes counted quite fast. There was never any doubt that Trump would win Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia, so it doesn't mean much - although the magnitude of his win in Indiana is worth noting. He's doing very, very well among white people without a college/university education.

edited 8th Nov '16 4:53:52 PM by Galadriel

lakingsif Since: Dec, 2012 Relationship Status: Wanna dance with somebody
#149709: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:53:59 PM

Announced:

Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia

Vermont

Leading:

Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina

New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida , Ohio

  • Florida: 50:47 — 17% Broward County, Palm Beach reporting
  • Ohio: 54:42Columbus reporting, Cincinnati not reported

Other:

  • Removing Democratic strongholds, Trump would need 28 States.
  • Virginia (41:54) — Loudoun County not reporting
  • Florida (47:50) — Highlands, Glades, not reporting; Miami, Jacksonville, reported

Electoral College:

Clinton 3 | 24 Trump

edited 8th Nov '16 4:57:27 PM by lakingsif

OH MY GOD; MY PARENTS ARE GARDENIIIIINNNNGGGGG!!!!!
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#149710: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:54:07 PM

[up]x4 Well, not necessarily New Hampshire, but Florida has a massive 29 electoral votes to its name. Losing that will make it difficult, if not impossible, to win.

edited 8th Nov '16 4:54:36 PM by KarkatTheDalek

Oh God! Natural light!
Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#149711: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:54:23 PM

[up][up][up][up][up]It almost guarantees a Democratic victory because states that heavily go for the Democrat like California and New York have a lot more electoral votes than smaller ones.

edited 8th Nov '16 4:54:49 PM by Kostya

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#149712: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:54:27 PM

Sci Fi: They are based on the assumption that many states are safely in one party's camp or the other. California is almost certainly going to vote Democrat, Texas will almost certainly go to the Republican.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#149713: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:54:28 PM

They're worth a relatively large number of electoral votes, and what happens in one purple state tends to hold true for the others. Like a litmus test.

TheHandle United Earth from Stockholm Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
United Earth
#149714: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:54:29 PM

How long till we're done? [BITES NAILS]

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
Demonic_Braeburn Yankee Doodle Dandy from Defective California Since: Jan, 2016
Yankee Doodle Dandy
#149715: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:55:12 PM

Ohio Senator Rob Portman (R) projected to win reelection in Senate race,

Any group who acts like morons ironically will eventually find itself swamped by morons who think themselves to be in good company.
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#149716: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:55:26 PM

Hillary now leads in both Florida and North Carolina.

Oh God! Natural light!
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#149717: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:55:33 PM

There are big states that can be almost certain to swing a particular way, a win basically comes down to win a particular number of swing states, for Trump he starts behind and needs to win them all, for Clinton she needs to win one.

It's what puts you over 270, for Clinton that's any one state, for Trump that's all of them.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
rmctagg09 The Wanderer from Brooklyn, NY (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: I won't say I'm in love
The Wanderer
#149718: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:55:38 PM

@The Handle: We'll know around 10 PM EST.

edited 8th Nov '16 4:55:56 PM by rmctagg09

Hugging a Vanillite will give you frostbite.
AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#149719: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:55:42 PM

Cali doesn't even st art to be counted until three hours from now. Strap in, you're gonna be up for a long time.

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#149720: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:56:05 PM

@Sci Fi Slasher: In this election, if any swing states like Florida go for Clinton, Trump does not mathematically have a feasible road to victory.

edited 8th Nov '16 4:56:23 PM by Ramidel

IFwanderer use political terms to describe, not insult from Earth Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
use political terms to describe, not insult
#149721: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:56:06 PM

North Carolina's flipped blue according to the NYT.

EDIT: Ohio Just flipped!

edited 8th Nov '16 4:57:58 PM by IFwanderer

1 2 We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be. -KV
NoName999 Since: May, 2011
#149722: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:57:04 PM

Clinton leads N. Carolina with <1% reporting

Shush

SatoshiBakura (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#149723: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:57:12 PM

I love how in Florida, Gary Johnson has maintained a consistent 2.0%.

AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#149724: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:57:34 PM

I forget, what color is NC usually considered?

BestOf FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC! from Finland Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: Falling within your bell curve
FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC!
#149725: Nov 8th 2016 at 4:57:42 PM

Very briefly: You need at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes to be elected President. The votes are assigned to each state based on their population, and almost all states have decided that whoever wins the popular vote across the state will get all of that state's electoral votes.

Clinton has a large number of states that have been considered safe for her for most of the campaign. Typically, both parties would have such a base, and need to win competitive states until they have the 270.

Because Clinton's advantage is so great in the non-swing states, if she gets a really big one - like North Carolina or Florida, let alone Ohio (which is one state Trump relies on) - it'll be next to impossible for Trump to win.

Clinton's biggest vulnerability is probably Pennsylvania. That's a massive share of electoral votes, and while it's considered pretty safe for Clinton, states that are in many ways similar are leaning Trump this time, so if he pulls of a surprise there it'll be much more competitive.

Clinton's other vulnerability is in one of her less strong regions - the Midwest, where she has a bunch of states that are leaning for her but look like they might be Trump states. If Minnesota and Wisconsin go from Clinton to Trump, it'll be much closer.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.

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