TVTropes Now available in the app store!
Open

Follow TV Tropes

Following

The General US Politics Thread

Go To

Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines before posting here.

Rumor-based, fear-mongering and/or inflammatory statements that damage the quality of the thread will be thumped. Off-topic posts will also be thumped. Repeat offenders may be suspended.

If time spent moderating this thread remains a distraction from moderation of the wiki itself, the thread will need to be locked. We want to avoid that, so please follow the forum rules when posting here.


In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.

Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#149151: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:02:18 PM

Something ugly might be growing, but they aren't growing faster than demographics would tend to oppose them.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#149152: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:03:39 PM

How did it happen that the extreme right-wing got a meaningful voice, anyway? I remember hearing something about the GOP suffering in their primaries because of the Tea Party, but how did that happen?

TLDR version of history: for the last 50+ years, the American Right has been in a continual cycle of warring amongst themselves over what constitutes a "true conservative". For a few years one faction will claim this title and exercise control over the party and its politics, then a different wing/faction of the overall Republican party, many of which do not make easy bedfellows. The alt-right has essentially been there all along going back to 60s and 70s, it's just that other factions had more power and thought that while the alt-right was useful for votes, they were too crude or too crazy to ever be given the lead.

Each of those factions different factions in the Republican party though, has either become obsolete or screwed itself over in various ways, and changing technology meant that it wasn't able to squash the alt-right and keep them out of away from the center of the party the way it had done in the 60s and 70s.

The war hawk neo-cons disgraced themselves by screwing up in the Middle East, and the Evangelical Right is running out of steam after having been the key foot soldiers for the party since arguably the mid-70s, but definitely after the election of Reagan in 80. Facing disgruntlement among their own ranks and a resurgence among Democrats, Republicans tried to reach out for a fresh source of new blood to give them a much needed boost. The Tea Party gave it to them, (early Tea Party stuff was largely Astro Turfed by former big name Republican politicians, and backers like the Koch brothers) but they weren't ready for the sheer level of crazy and ignorance they tapped into, or for the fact that Tea Party types weren't always willing to be compliant puppets dancing on establishment Republican strings when they got into office or came to media prominence.

And all along, the alt-right had been there, relied upon to vote R but disavowed when they became inconvenient or made the rest of the party look bad. Now they're trying their hand at trying to be the leading faction on the Republican side.

(If you want to read an absolute wall of text, and I can ever be arsed to finish it, I can do a more in depth, step by step history.)

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#149153: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:05:10 PM

Although I consider myself politically moderate and I'm not a member of either party, I used to lean towards the Republicans. That is, until they became a bunch of reactionaries, obstructing everything purely for the sake of being contrary. So, to hell with them.

I also used to hate Hillary, for no good reason that I can think of now. But I absolutely despise Trump, and Hillary doesn't look so bad by comparison. Sure, there might be some stuff in her past that looks dodgy, but compared to the loutish con artist she's running against...

The polls open at 7 AM tomorrow. I plan to cast my vote before I do anything else. Then, it'll finally be over (except for the fallout in the aftermath.)

This Space Intentionally Left Blank.
fredhot16 Don't want to leave but cannot pretend from Baton Rogue, Louisiana. Since: Jan, 2015 Relationship Status: Too sexy for my shirt
Don't want to leave but cannot pretend
#149154: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:07:02 PM

[up][up]I'm actually interested in the Conservative Moment in a "how does this bug work" way. I'd like that, please. Yes.

edited 7th Nov '16 4:07:17 PM by fredhot16

Trans rights are human rights. TV Tropes is not a place for bigotry, cruelty, or dickishness, no matter who or their position.
nervmeister Since: Oct, 2010
#149155: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:15:01 PM

@Galadriel

While I highly doubt the Republican Party will go extinct, after finally realizing in retrospect that they nominated someone no remotely sober person should, they may say to themselves, "Okay. Let's not make our beef with the 'Dems ever that desperately personal again."

edited 7th Nov '16 4:16:55 PM by nervmeister

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#149156: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:15:40 PM

For anyone doom and glooming remember that there's a large anti-Trump demographic that's normally untapped and hasn't been polled at all. Americans Abroad, there's been a big effort to get Americans living abroad who can vote to vote, its largely been an anti-Trump movement so we may end up seeing some swings to Clinton that couldn't be predicted by the polls, because polls don't account for Americans Abroad.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#149157: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:16:54 PM

Expats typically have the lowest turnout out of any demographic, I doubt that will change.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Mr.Didact Keep Hope Alive from Winterfell Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: Naked on a bearskin rug, playing the saxophone
Keep Hope Alive
#149158: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:17:15 PM

[up][up] How do those votes affect the Electoral College? Is it based on their state of birth or something?

edited 7th Nov '16 4:17:29 PM by Mr.Didact

Stand Fast, Stand Strong, Stand Together
Blueeyedrat Since: Oct, 2010
#149159: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:24:03 PM

Absentee votes are sent to your most recent American residence. (So in my case, I'm living in Vancouver, but can vote in King County, Washington's federal, state, and municipal elections.)

KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#149160: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:25:15 PM

According to 538, Clinton's chances are beginning to reach back to 70% again. Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come.

Oh God! Natural light!
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#149161: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:28:52 PM

Sure turnout will be low, but it's liable to go up and that rise could make a difference in some places.

It's based on some kind of residency, so their votes are split amongst the states. I don't know the details though.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Wryte Since: Jul, 2010
#149162: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:29:24 PM

Dropped my ballot off today on my way to work. I've had it ready to go for like a week, but I was waiting on mom to actually fill hers out so I could drop them both at once. Finally had to get on her about it last night so she'd have it ready for today.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#149163: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:36:10 PM

Going by the latest polling, Democrats in Utah should get out and vote en masse for Mc Mullin. I don't know a thing about the guy, his principles, or his policies, but it doesn't matter - if most Clinton supporters vote for him, they can take the state away from Trump and give it to him. Whereas they have no chance of turning Utah blue. In a close race it could be valuable electoral votes.

It's a weird situation where the best thing you can do for your candidate is vote for someone else.

fredhot16 Don't want to leave but cannot pretend from Baton Rogue, Louisiana. Since: Jan, 2015 Relationship Status: Too sexy for my shirt
Don't want to leave but cannot pretend
#149164: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:43:51 PM

Never mind.

[down][down] Yeah, sorry for bothering you.

edited 7th Nov '16 4:54:38 PM by fredhot16

Trans rights are human rights. TV Tropes is not a place for bigotry, cruelty, or dickishness, no matter who or their position.
pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#149165: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:53:22 PM

[up]Fighteer answered that several pages back:

The election call will come tomorrow night, most likely, after polling stations begin to close on the east coast. Unless it's very close, or there are major shenanigans, there should be a result before midnight EST. Whether both candidates will accept that result is a different question.

This Space Intentionally Left Blank.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#149166: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:53:59 PM

[up][up]I thought about that a few weeks ago, but I never heard it brought up as a serious option.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#149167: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:55:12 PM

Depends how close the race is - when someone's winning by a lot in a given state, the news networks tend to call that state early, but if it's closer, they'll be more cautious. Polls close at 7-8pm local time in most states, which means that in the Eastern Standard Time Zone we're unlikely to hear the final results much before midnight (and even then there will be lots of votes still to count, it's just that the result may be a foregone conclusion by then, since the west coast states tend to be strongly Democratic). I think in 2012 the networks called the election for Obama around 11:30pm EST, and he won by a good margin.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#149168: Nov 7th 2016 at 5:02:05 PM

If any of the eastern/midwestern swing states go Clinton, we can call it for her. If she wins NC, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, or even New Hampshire (that's all it takes if her firewall holds, and I think it will) its over assuming he holds her safe states in West coast and Southwest.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Mr.Didact Keep Hope Alive from Winterfell Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: Naked on a bearskin rug, playing the saxophone
Keep Hope Alive
#149169: Nov 7th 2016 at 5:03:58 PM

Oh she'll hold them.

The West Coast: The Old, The True, The Brave

Stand Fast, Stand Strong, Stand Together
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#149170: Nov 7th 2016 at 5:05:40 PM

You know what? Fuck it, let's go with a classic:

Oh God! Natural light!
Elle Since: Jan, 2001
#149171: Nov 7th 2016 at 5:22:43 PM

Washington Post is dropping their paywall for tomorrow and also doing video coverage, if anyone cares.

Also, not going to dig through Youtube but my post-election song for a Trump victory would be "The End of the World as We Know It" and the only reason "and I feel fine" will apply is I'll be Drowning My Sorrows in cheap rum.

edited 7th Nov '16 5:25:05 PM by Elle

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#149172: Nov 7th 2016 at 5:31:26 PM

How upset will some of you get if the rest of us start calling this for Clinton if she wins a pair of eastern swing states?[lol]

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
RavenWilder Since: Apr, 2009
#149174: Nov 7th 2016 at 5:35:26 PM

According to CNN's electoral map, there are five states labelled as "toss-ups": Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Arizona. If the Red-leaning states all go Red, and the Blue-leaning states all go Blue, then the only possible avenue for a Trump victory is if he takes all five of those toss-up states; if Clinton wins even the smallest of them, it would be enough to put her over 270.

Now, they're called toss-ups because the odds of a particular candidate winning one of those states is about the same as calling a coin toss: 1/2. And pretty simple mathematics tells you that, if the odds of Trump winning in each of those toss-up states is 1/2, then the odds of him winning all five equals 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2. That comes to 1/32 odds, or a little over 3%.

Of course, one of the lean Democratic states could end up going Republican, improving Trump's odds. But then, one of the lean Republican states could also end up going Democratic.

edited 7th Nov '16 5:45:25 PM by RavenWilder

Zendervai Since: Oct, 2009
#149175: Nov 7th 2016 at 5:37:26 PM

And you also get possible combinations. If New Hampshire goes Trump but Nevada goes Clinton, Clinton loses 4 electoral votes, but gains six and Trump loses six and gains only four.

Those two are the current most likely to switch. Nevada because its polling tends to be really bad and the early voting looks like it really favours Clinton, and New Hampshire because it's been pretty much in the middle this whole election.

edited 7th Nov '16 5:39:57 PM by Zendervai


Total posts: 417,856
Top