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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#149126: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:17:18 PM

I mean, two years ago I was actually considering Zoltan Istvan.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#149127: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:19:28 PM

[up][up][up]I notice that their "State of the Race" layout puts Clinton in a position where she only needs two electoral college votes from the undecided swing states in order to win the race.

2 out of 72 electoral votes shouldn't be hard to win.

edited 7th Nov '16 3:20:06 PM by TobiasDrake

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#149128: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:20:13 PM

@Link, that's very close to my prediction actually. Though I might shift NC to Clinton if Hispanic turnout holds up. And she might have a prayer in that Nebraska district Obama took in 08 I guess.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#149129: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:23:12 PM

I miss the days when Deez Nuts was running. sad

Do not obey in advance.
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#149130: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:26:04 PM

So, does anyone think that maybe people got, for lack a better word "spoiled" with Obama and voting for a candidate they actually really liked to such a high office, and now they're looking on things worse, because that's gone even though it's usually like this?

Or rather, Clinton has the average percentage of voters voting for her specifically, while Trump is way down in tat department.

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#149131: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:28:57 PM

I remember 538 mentioning that in an article, though I'd have to dig out the link.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#149132: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:29:10 PM

I'll keep it brief for now, since I have to go somewhere, but yes, I do believe people were "spoiled" by Obama, although there are other factors in play (tying into how Clinton's lead in the Upper Midwest is smaller than Obama's, for example).

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#149133: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:31:35 PM

Even if you go by 538's projection (which may overstate Trump's chances), the state of the race now is far better for Clinton than it was in her darkest hours (right before the DNC, and then the period between Sept. 11th and the debates).

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#149134: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:32:36 PM

I'm finding 538's odds a lot more credible than the sites which are predicting 90% odds of a Clinton win. It's still looking like a close race.

I really, really don't want Trump to win. If he takes North Carolina and Florida (which are complete toss-ups at the moment) and manages to swing Pennsylvania, he wins. I was extremely worried earlier these evening when I saw two recent polls showing him tied or ahead in Pennsylvania (the first time any poll has shown him ahead now), but it looks like they're Republican-associated polls and 538 (which chooses and rates its polls based on their methodology and accuracy) hasn't even included them in its model. So that's moved me back from "very worried' to 'moderately worried". Unlikely to improve beyond that state of mind for the next 30 hours.

The good news is that if Clinton wins Florida, she wins the election, no contest. The bad news is that, well, it's Florida, and no one want to rely on that again, and if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he almost certainly wins the election.

edited 7th Nov '16 3:37:21 PM by Galadriel

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#149135: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:37:03 PM

Florida does have some nice numbers with regards to early voting for Clinton though. If Hispanics turn out in force, Trump loses Florida (and the White House).

[up]Other polls have Clinton ahead in Penn, and outside of the margin of error. 538 recently gave her a slight uptick there as well.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/presidential-polls-new-hampshire-pennsylvania/index.html

edited 7th Nov '16 3:38:55 PM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#149136: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:39:00 PM

Hispanics folks in Florida are more Republican than elsewhere (lots of ex-Cubans), but it's hard to imagine a large portion of them voting for Trump.

edited 7th Nov '16 3:39:25 PM by Galadriel

Mr.Didact Keep Hope Alive from Winterfell Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: Naked on a bearskin rug, playing the saxophone
Keep Hope Alive
#149137: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:41:23 PM

This election has only made me want voting rights for territories and the abolition of the electoral college even more.

edited 7th Nov '16 3:41:47 PM by Mr.Didact

Stand Fast, Stand Strong, Stand Together
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#149138: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:41:44 PM

By Republican standards, Trump is doing terribly among Cuban-Americans. And young Cuban-Americans aren't inclined to vote for the GOP (let alone the Trumpenfuhrer) the way their parents and grand parents are.

Polls had Trump getting between 15-20% of the Hispanic vote. Bush got 40% in 04, and Romney managed 26%.

edited 7th Nov '16 3:42:52 PM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#149139: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:45:21 PM

[up][up]American politicians think they can weasel out of granting represention by not taxing Puerto Rico, but they forget that the Founders went straight from "No taxation without representation" to "No legislation without representation". It's a travesty that people in the US territories (or rather, colonies, if we're going to be honest about it) are denied the franchise.

And I agree that the electoral college is antiquated. The US is in a perfect position to elect presidents by popular vote, unlike parliamentary systems that are tied to the first-past-the-post system. A Democrat in Alabama deserves to have their vote matter. A Republican in New York deserves to have their vote matter.

edited 7th Nov '16 3:48:39 PM by Galadriel

theLibrarian Since: Jul, 2009
#149140: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:46:01 PM

[up][up] Funny how constantly insulting an ethnic group makes the members of that ethnic group not want to support you.

LinkToTheFuture A real bad hombre from somewhere completely different Since: Apr, 2015 Relationship Status: What's love got to do with it?
A real bad hombre
#149141: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:47:03 PM

I'm a little sad about how unpopular HRC seems to be with the internet at large.

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." -Thomas Edison
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#149142: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:48:39 PM

Nothing really can be done about that. At the very best, she'll be able to get some stuff done that makes the unearned uneasiness/contempt on the left soften. But as for the right, nothing doing probably.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#149143: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:49:16 PM

They've been holding a grudge for...over 2 decades, if I'm not mistaken? I don't think they'll ever let it go.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#149144: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:49:47 PM

[up][up][up][up]First African Americans (and the LGBT+ community, but they aren't big/concentrated enough to swing things. Unless their allies are driven away from the GOP's position that they are sub-humans), and now Hispanics. And they very well could be driving out young people and educated white women next (which means political oblivion).

edited 7th Nov '16 3:50:02 PM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#149146: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:55:00 PM

[up][up]Everyone keeps saying that, but the Republicans keep being able to compete, even when they choose a candidate who is vulgar, stupid, and evil. I don't see them just fading into oblivion. They haven't had a crushing defeat (on the scale of '72, '80, '84, and to a lesser degree '88 for the Democrats) since '64, before the Southern Strategy. In electoral terms, racism has paid off for them, big time.

After about 10 years of people predicting their demise, it shows up pretty clearly as just wishful thinking. The political climate is degenerating, not improving, and Trump is the clearest sign of that.

The GOP may be spelling their doom if they don't reform, but it'll be in 10 years or more from now if it happens at all, not in the immediate future.

edited 7th Nov '16 3:56:51 PM by Galadriel

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#149147: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:57:12 PM

That racism will only pay off while the racists outnumber everyone else (especially minorities). And the racists are dying of old age.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Mr.Didact Keep Hope Alive from Winterfell Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: Naked on a bearskin rug, playing the saxophone
Keep Hope Alive
#149148: Nov 7th 2016 at 3:59:55 PM

I never thought I'd miss the establishment having a dominating voice in politics.

Stand Fast, Stand Strong, Stand Together
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#149149: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:00:24 PM

I mean, thet don't even iutnumber everyone else right now otherwise this wouldn't even be a contest.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#149150: Nov 7th 2016 at 4:00:49 PM

I don't think it's octogenarians that are filling Breitbart. There's something ugly growing in America now, and it goes beyond old folks fearing change. It's young and middle-aged men, fearing that they're no longer the undisputed rulers in society. And, more understandably, seeing that they'll never have the same steady jobs and good pensions as their fathers, or that their sons will never have the same steady jobs and good pensions as they did - and blaming all the wrong people for that. In short, it's the people who have powered fascism throughout history.

Conservatism may be a movement of the old. Fascism isn't. That's one of the things that makes it frightening.

edited 7th Nov '16 4:05:58 PM by Galadriel


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