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Deadbeatloser22 from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#148626: Nov 5th 2016 at 1:00:43 PM

The FBI's source on the new emails was someone in Breitbart, if I'm remembering right

quelle surprise.

edited 5th Nov '16 1:23:02 PM by Deadbeatloser22

"Yup. That tasted purple."
BestOf FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC! from Finland Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: Falling within your bell curve
FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC!
#148627: Nov 5th 2016 at 1:15:00 PM

Nate Silver won't be embarrassed in Clinton wins by 10 percent in the popular election. He's consistently said that the polling error he's factoring in (as more uncertainty in the model's predictions) can swing either way. When Clinton was peaking all the articles said that while Trump can still win, it's equally likely (or was at that point) that Clinton might take Georgia and Texas to finish a landslide.

It's not accurate to claim 538 is favouring only Trump with the high degree of uncertainty in the model. It's always included big wins for Clinton as a possibility, and always had her as the favourite. I think it's admirable how they've stuck to the model and defended its inherent uncertainty. To me that's more honest than cherry picking the polls you like to feel good.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#148628: Nov 5th 2016 at 1:39:15 PM

I voted today. Was the last day to vote early and I got in 10 minutes before the polls closed.

Feeling good. Got a sticker.

Oh really when?
NoName999 Since: May, 2011
#148629: Nov 5th 2016 at 1:41:32 PM

But it's quite odd that despite Clinton having the advantage in early polling, there are more newly registered Democrats than Republicans, Latino turnout is huge, and the fact that Nevada was always bad at polling, somehow they decide to increase Trump's odds by 1% because he won a few polls in a deep red state like Utah or something.

Also, surely 538 would know that even though Trump had like a low chance to win the nomination, that's the thing, it wasn't impossible. Also he was competing against 12 other dudes and shit.

edited 5th Nov '16 1:43:59 PM by NoName999

KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#148630: Nov 5th 2016 at 1:43:03 PM

Who was their favorite to win the nomination?

Oh God! Natural light!
FluffyMcChicken My Hair Provides Affordable Healthcare from where the floating lights gleam Since: Jun, 2014 Relationship Status: In another castle
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#148632: Nov 5th 2016 at 1:55:28 PM

Newsweek: Why Russia is Backing Trump
Interesting article, a shame that the GOP has essentially put-forth a candidate who is a useful idiot for Russia.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#148633: Nov 5th 2016 at 1:55:54 PM

Trump may have already lost Nevada

In both of the past two presidential elections, polls underestimated Barack Obama’s eventual margin of victory in the state. And in Harry Reid’s 2010 Senate campaign, the polls utterly whiffed, suggesting he’d lose to his challenger Sharron Angle when he ended up winning by nearly 6 points.

So in previous years, analysts like Ralston have found success in reading tea leaves from Nevada’s early voting numbers instead. And all week, Ralston has been warning of danger signs for Trump. The partisan and geographic breakdown of early voting turnout has looked similar to 2012, when Barack Obama won the state by 6 and a half points. But the final day of early voting Friday was, Ralston writes, “cataclysmic” for Republicans.

Ralston is looking at two main things — the numbers of registered Democrats who have voted compared to registered Republicans, and the geography of the turnout.

Though the statewide early voting numbers aren’t yet finalized, Ralston estimates that registered Democrats will have a 6 point lead on registered Republicans among early voters. Since registered partisans tend to overwhelmingly vote for their own party, Trump probably either needs to dominate among early voters associated with neither party or else make up the gap on election day.

Ralston flags the numbers from Clark County, which contains Las Vegas and three quarters of the state’s population, and where Democrats have drawn much of their support. So far, he writes, 73,000 more registered Democrats turned out than registered Republicans in Clark — and if those voters back their party’s candidates, that’s a big lead in raw votes that will be very difficult for Republicans to overcome with the more sparsely populated counties elsewhere. (In 2012, Obama beat Romney statewide by about 70,000 votes.)

Anecdotally, there appears to have been very high turnout among Hispanic voters in Clark on Friday

Nevada’s not normally much of a factor in presidential elections, but it is a state that's always close and where it feels like Democrats are swimming against the current. If Trump is losing there, he's almost certainly losing other swing and battleground states.

I think the words "Madam President" are sounding better and more likely every day. cool

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#148634: Nov 5th 2016 at 1:56:57 PM

I wonder what Bill's title will be. First Lord of the United States?

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#148635: Nov 5th 2016 at 1:57:10 PM

What do we call Bill now, though?

[nja]

edited 5th Nov '16 1:57:21 PM by KarkatTheDalek

Oh God! Natural light!
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#148637: Nov 5th 2016 at 1:58:39 PM

Re: #148624

"Willy" seems appropriate, given his past indiscretions

edited 5th Nov '16 1:59:32 PM by sgamer82

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#148638: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:03:44 PM

I believe First Gentleman was decided upon.

Zendervai Since: Oct, 2009
#148639: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:04:22 PM

Most people seem to think that it's "First Gentleman" because in that sort of context, gentleman and lady are equivalents. The other context is knighting, which isn't a thing in the US.

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#148640: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:05:07 PM

Well I think for Bill particularly it's still Mr. President isn't it? Like you keep that title forever.

Oh really when?
pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#148641: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:05:12 PM

There was a political cartoon from the 2008 election musing on that very issue. Their answer? "First Ladies' Man." (Picture Hillary in the oval office. Through the windows, we see Bill in his underwear chasing some chicky-babe interns around on the south lawn...)

This Space Intentionally Left Blank.
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#148642: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:07:05 PM

I mean, I think we're going to avoid the issue by continuing to call him 'Former President Clinton'.

But personally, I'm fond of the idea of 'First Lady' becoming a gender neutral title.

GameGuruGG Vampire Hunter from Castlevania (Before Recorded History)
Vampire Hunter
#148643: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:07:09 PM

The official term for what Bill's position in the United States Government will be when Hillary becomes President is "First Spouse." While the former First Ladies have been referred to unofficially by that particular term and Bill will be unofficially referred to as First Gentleman should Hillary become President, the official term the United States Government uses nowadays for the position is First Spouse, because they understood the need for a gender-neutral term.

edited 5th Nov '16 2:10:54 PM by GameGuruGG

Wizard Needs Food Badly
TheHandle United Earth from Stockholm Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
United Earth
#148644: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:09:17 PM

A number of agents, particularly in the FBI New York field office, are Trump True Believers, and used information contained in the Breitbart-published smear book, Clinton Cash, as the basis for their investigation into Hillary's supposed corruption. They are the force in the FBI that's leaking information to the Trump campaign via Rudy Giuliani, and the ones pushing for prosecution of her "crimes".

This Is Unforgivable!.

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#148645: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:17:36 PM

Yeah Former President Clinton seems pretty likely.

TheHandle United Earth from Stockholm Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
United Earth
#148646: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:36:30 PM

I'm reading up about the Federalist Papers. Pretty impressive stuff:

How come US politicians nowadays don't seem to be aiming to set the stage for future generations? Why do they seem to act like they don't know History has its eyes on them?

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#148647: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:39:21 PM

Same reason so many people are ardent climate change denialists. They're only in it for short-term gain.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#148649: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:45:25 PM

Well, technically, the Federalist Papers themselves were created for a short term goal, drumming up support in New York and New England for getting the Constitution ratified. They just ended up having long lasting effects as a basis for which to interpret said Constitution.

NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#148650: Nov 5th 2016 at 2:46:17 PM

re: titles, the general rule is that you refer to someone by the highest title they've held unless they're acting in an official capacity as one of their currently-held titles. That's why they referred to Hillary as "Secretary Clinton" during the debates (Secretary of State being the highest office she's occupied) despite her no longer being Secretary. Bill is still called "President Clinton" for the same reason. In a situation where Bill was attending an event as "the spouse of the sitting President" rather than as "a former POTUS", he'd be called First Gentleman Clinton rather than President Clinton.

Personally, I think it's going to be interesting after Hillary leaves office, where she and her husband will be "President Clinton and President Clinton".

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.

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