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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Okay, this time, the movie my Troper Coven is watching tonight is much more directly relevant to modern politics. Specifically, Trump and the election.
We're watching a movie called Bob Roberts, a comedy mockumentary about a far right wing country singer who runs for president. And we're watching it in 6 hours 45 minutes (8 PM Eastern US time). If anyone wants to see a comedy about a Trump-esque asshole, well, you're welcome to stop by at the place linked to in my sig. Maybe even compare and contrast the fictional Bob Roberts to the sadly real Trump.
God, even the poster
◊ seems to be predicting the Trump phenom.
edited 5th Nov '16 10:19:32 AM by BonsaiForest
I suppose The Dead Zone would hit too close to home?![]()
Dead Zone is too optimistic. If Trump used a baby as a human shield on TV, noone would care. He's unsinkable among his base.
Blind Final Fantasy 6 Let's PlayIn all honesty, guys...don't worry too much right now. 538 has...gone down a lot ion my estimation for portraying this as such a horse race. Ralston Reports are showing incredibly strong early voting numbers for Clinton and we're seeing terrific numbers in Florida, as well as possibly Colorado and North Carolina.
She's got Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania locked up. This is sound and fury, signifying nothing. The election should proceed nicely in three days, but Trump is going to lose.
The problem right now is 538's model is legitimately making little sense right now.
They're factoring in polls from safe red states that drop her chances, even when good polls from purplish or even blue states are helping her chances. Furthermore, they're not taking early voting into account in their model which is just bizarre to me.
Honestly, part of the issue right now may be that Nate's on his own venture so he may be wanting to generate clicks. He's also been behaving very badly towards people criticizing this while hosting or writing more clickbait articles of "here's why things are so tight and Clinton has some bad state polls."
Sam Wang, on the other hand, is considerably more optimistic on Clinton's chances and he's usually very accurate
Well, considering the only reason Trump won the primary was because he was getting between 30-40 percent of the vote on average, but the other 12 candidates split the vote between them. If it was Trump against one person, or even two if the second person was a non-entity, Trump would have lost. It was a really weird primary in general.
![]()
Hasn't it been said a few times that he's basically giving Trump an extra point and a half or so to make up for that?
Although I think it'll be hilarious if it winds up that Trump throws off Silver by over performing in the primary, and when Silver over corrects for that, under performs in the general.
Nothing like having egg on your face twice despite taking two opposite actions.
edited 5th Nov '16 12:30:06 PM by TheWanderer
| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |I just got home from canvassing in my precinct again. As before, I met a lot of nice people and they were mostly very enthusiastic about voting. I even got to speak to someone who had decided not to vote, and we had a very interesting and in-depth conversation about corruption in politics. After I gave him some information he didn't have — particularly, the Breitbart-Trump-FBI connection, he got very thoughtful and said he'd look into it. So it is possible to make a difference by talking.
edited 5th Nov '16 12:47:57 PM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"A number of agents, particularly in the FBI New York field office, are Trump True Believers, and used information contained in the Breitbart-published smear book, Clinton Cash, as the basis for their investigation into Hillary's supposed corruption. They are the force in the FBI that's leaking information to the Trump campaign via Rudy Giuliani, and the ones pushing for prosecution of her "crimes".
Breitbart is paid for almost entirely by Robert Mercer, a wealthy mutual fund guy who's got extreme right-wing views and is also the largest single backer of the Trump campaign. Many staffers at his pro-Trump SuperPACs, as well as top Breitbart staffers, are now in prominent positions in the Trump campaign, including Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway.
Their MO is to seed the media by getting their smear pieces reported on by reputable news outlets (often by staging "leaks" by insiders that they've converted), then use the fact that the news outlets are reporting on them as proof that they are true.
edited 5th Nov '16 12:59:27 PM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

...That tells me nothing.