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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
Shippudentimes Since: Dec, 2012
#148602: Nov 5th 2016 at 9:45:18 AM

[up] All you need to know, because that's what it is, essentially.

Yinyang107 from the True North (Decatroper) Relationship Status: Tongue-tied
NoName999 Since: May, 2011
#148604: Nov 5th 2016 at 9:46:13 AM

I'm going to be upset if on Nov. 9th there isn't a dozen articles explicitly and loudly thanking minorities and women saving us from this orange clown.

Donald Trump has a better chance of actually being sane than that ever happening.

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#148605: Nov 5th 2016 at 9:47:44 AM

[up][up] Basically, it gives you a 360 degree view of hundreds of Trump supporters surrounding a group of reporters in a pen and essentially playing the role of the angry mob, with the reporters being the hapless 'monsters' who don't deserve any of this.

edited 5th Nov '16 9:48:14 AM by kkhohoho

pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#148606: Nov 5th 2016 at 9:49:32 AM

Obviously, Trump doesn't want reporters circulating freely and actually talking to people (and finding out that they're just paid extras from Rent-A-Crowd?)

This Space Intentionally Left Blank.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#148607: Nov 5th 2016 at 9:55:26 AM

No, reporters do get to talk to them (NPR Politics Podcast has said as much). During the rallies themselves, they stay in the pen. Nothing to do with Trump not letting them out or whatever.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#148608: Nov 5th 2016 at 9:55:30 AM

[up][up] Explains the lower turnout at some of his recent rallies. His campaign's budget must be running low.

edited 5th Nov '16 9:55:47 AM by M84

Disgusted, but not surprised
BonsaiForest Since: Jan, 2001
#148609: Nov 5th 2016 at 10:15:29 AM

Okay, this time, the movie my Troper Coven is watching tonight is much more directly relevant to modern politics. Specifically, Trump and the election.

We're watching a movie called Bob Roberts, a comedy mockumentary about a far right wing country singer who runs for president. And we're watching it in 6 hours 45 minutes (8 PM Eastern US time). If anyone wants to see a comedy about a Trump-esque asshole, well, you're welcome to stop by at the place linked to in my sig. Maybe even compare and contrast the fictional Bob Roberts to the sadly real Trump.

God, even the poster seems to be predicting the Trump phenom.

At the time this was initially made, the biggest joke seemed to be how the rebellious 1960's counterculture seemingly grew into the embodiment of 1980's greed and Reagan(/Thatcher)-era conservatism (as we see in our a main character a composite of both Bob Dylan and Gordon Gekko), but it's amazing how much greater relevance this movie now seems to have nearly a quarter of a century later in the age of United States Presidential Candidate Donald J. Trump—A media celebrity running for political office, a shady campaign team that's only looking to help their own self-interests, building a rabid core of supporters that would blindly follow their hero into anything... even its original poster now seems like a parallel to that real pizza shit hugging the goddamn flag.

edited 5th Nov '16 10:19:32 AM by BonsaiForest

YamiVizziniX Since: Jan, 2015 Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
#148610: Nov 5th 2016 at 10:22:03 AM

I suppose The Dead Zone would hit too close to home?tongue

There is no beginning. There is no end. There is only... Hooty.
storyyeller More like giant cherries from Appleloosa Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: RelationshipOutOfBoundsException: 1
More like giant cherries
#148611: Nov 5th 2016 at 11:32:19 AM

Dead Zone is too optimistic. If Trump used a baby as a human shield on TV, noone would care. He's unsinkable among his base.

Blind Final Fantasy 6 Let's Play
Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#148612: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:05:58 PM

In all honesty, guys...don't worry too much right now. 538 has...gone down a lot ion my estimation for portraying this as such a horse race. Ralston Reports are showing incredibly strong early voting numbers for Clinton and we're seeing terrific numbers in Florida, as well as possibly Colorado and North Carolina.

She's got Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania locked up. This is sound and fury, signifying nothing. The election should proceed nicely in three days, but Trump is going to lose.

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#148613: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:11:19 PM

538 is merely accounting for black swans. They have admitted this. Their "worst" estimation still has Clinton winning.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#148614: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:12:48 PM

[up]No, see, if you don't have Clinton winning 100% of the time, then that means the end is near, and you're the devil. Considering how alarmist some people have been, you'd think that was the case anyway.

Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#148615: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:18:31 PM

The problem right now is 538's model is legitimately making little sense right now.

They're factoring in polls from safe red states that drop her chances, even when good polls from purplish or even blue states are helping her chances. Furthermore, they're not taking early voting into account in their model which is just bizarre to me.

Honestly, part of the issue right now may be that Nate's on his own venture so he may be wanting to generate clicks. He's also been behaving very badly towards people criticizing this while hosting or writing more clickbait articles of "here's why things are so tight and Clinton has some bad state polls."

Sam Wang, on the other hand, is considerably more optimistic on Clinton's chances and he's usually very accurate

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#148616: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:21:02 PM

[up] Nate's probably also rattled that he failed to predict Trump would win the primaries.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Zendervai Since: Oct, 2009
#148617: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:29:36 PM

Well, considering the only reason Trump won the primary was because he was getting between 30-40 percent of the vote on average, but the other 12 candidates split the vote between them. If it was Trump against one person, or even two if the second person was a non-entity, Trump would have lost. It was a really weird primary in general.

TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#148618: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:29:43 PM

[up][up]Hasn't it been said a few times that he's basically giving Trump an extra point and a half or so to make up for that?

Although I think it'll be hilarious if it winds up that Trump throws off Silver by over performing in the primary, and when Silver over corrects for that, under performs in the general.

Nothing like having egg on your face twice despite taking two opposite actions.

edited 5th Nov '16 12:30:06 PM by TheWanderer

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#148619: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:37:44 PM

Silver made the rrror of trusting his gut over the polls the first time. Now he's overcompensating.

Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#148620: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:44:45 PM

I mean, at the end of the day he's still forecasting a Clinton win, though.

But he says he's accounting for the possibility of an error in polling, which kind of sounds like trusting his gut over the polls to me.

edited 5th Nov '16 12:45:06 PM by Gilphon

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#148621: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:46:50 PM

I just got home from canvassing in my precinct again. As before, I met a lot of nice people and they were mostly very enthusiastic about voting. I even got to speak to someone who had decided not to vote, and we had a very interesting and in-depth conversation about corruption in politics. After I gave him some information he didn't have — particularly, the Breitbart-Trump-FBI connection, he got very thoughtful and said he'd look into it. So it is possible to make a difference by talking.

edited 5th Nov '16 12:47:57 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
TheHandle United Earth from Stockholm Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
United Earth
#148622: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:50:43 PM

BTFBI? What's that now?

Man, I can't wait for this to be over.

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#148623: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:53:43 PM

The FBI's source on the new emails was someone in Breitbart, if I'm remembering right

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#148624: Nov 5th 2016 at 12:58:12 PM

A number of agents, particularly in the FBI New York field office, are Trump True Believers, and used information contained in the Breitbart-published smear book, Clinton Cash, as the basis for their investigation into Hillary's supposed corruption. They are the force in the FBI that's leaking information to the Trump campaign via Rudy Giuliani, and the ones pushing for prosecution of her "crimes".

Breitbart is paid for almost entirely by Robert Mercer, a wealthy mutual fund guy who's got extreme right-wing views and is also the largest single backer of the Trump campaign. Many staffers at his pro-Trump SuperPACs, as well as top Breitbart staffers, are now in prominent positions in the Trump campaign, including Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway.

Their MO is to seed the media by getting their smear pieces reported on by reputable news outlets (often by staging "leaks" by insiders that they've converted), then use the fact that the news outlets are reporting on them as proof that they are true.

edited 5th Nov '16 12:59:27 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#148625: Nov 5th 2016 at 1:00:12 PM

Good on you, Fighteer...sadly, my state's senate race is almost certainly going to Rubio. which is...depressing.

But McGinty seems likely to throw Toomey out on his rear end.


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