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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#90726: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:24:24 PM

Am I allowed to flee the country if the Republicans with the White House and Congress or is that too much?
Sure you can try but the rest of the world is in a growingly anti-Immigration mood, and Canada's Prime Minister has basically made Canadian immigration similar to the US: "Only super skilled workers need apply"

Joesolo Indiana Solo Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
Indiana Solo
#90727: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:24:42 PM

[up][up][up] Yes, but only if you follow through tongue

edited 9th Mar '15 12:24:53 PM by Joesolo

I'm baaaaaaack
Gabrael from My musings Since: Nov, 2011 Relationship Status: Is that a kind of food?
#90728: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:27:56 PM

[up][up] I've been trying to get a Canadian visa for about...5 years tongue Can't say I blame them though. I respect Canada's attempts to take care of their people first.

"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - Aszur
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#90729: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:29:50 PM

As silasw has pointed out, they're increasingly behind the 8-ball. They would need a sweep of all but one of the big swing states, and that becomes difficult as the deciding factors in the swing states are increasingly how many black and hispanic voters the Dems can get out.

Granted, it might be more difficult without a black man on the ticket, funnily enough, to get minorities as motivated, but hopefully Obama doesn't go Clinton on us and plugs the democratic nominee for all he's worth.

Barring that, we need some sort of catastrophe. The easiest one would be an economic meltdown (or meltdown not caused by a Republican-obstruction inspired default), since the President and his party tend to take blame for bad economy almost without thinking. Other disasters, however, would be harder to pin on Obama precisely.

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#90730: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:30:24 PM

And I'm poor with no higher education or advanced technical skills whatsoever.

Not sure where else to go then, everyone's made England sound awful too and Australia is too damn hot and is also not great.

Oh really when?
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#90731: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:39:09 PM

Not sure where else to go then, everyone's made England sound awful too and Australia is too damn hot and is also not great.
England suffers from skyrocketing real estate prices, NIMB Yism with new homes and the like, rising unemployment (blamed on the funny foreigners). IIRC.

Australia's got similar issues, a completely cartoonish Prime Ministers, and an "Anti-Boat People" Anti Immigration bent.

Basically anti-Immigration is a strong streak through much of the world and much of the world is currently in the hands of the Political Right or Right-Centrist ATM.

But as noted, as far as the presidency goes, the current calculus for the Presidency is very much biased towards Democrats. However, all you need is another Reagan/Dubya who appeals to the normal folks, and well.

Achaemenid HGW XX/7 from Ruschestraße 103, Haus 1 Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: Giving love a bad name
HGW XX/7
#90732: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:43:19 PM

[up]

Unemployment in the UK is actually falling, NIMBYism isn't any more significant than the US, and house prices began a slow fall at the beginning of this year.

Schild und Schwert der Partei
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#90733: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:44:42 PM

Oh right, the Russians getting fucked over by sanctions nailed Real Estate in London because they couldn't keep buying homes.

Thanks for correcting!

3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#90734: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:45:53 PM

The problem is finding someone who appeals to both the Tea Crazies and the normal people.

"You can reply to this Message!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#90735: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:56:58 PM

@Aprilla: Nobody here is smug. Far from it; we are rather desperately trying to cling to what remains of sanity in our political process. Our advantage here is that Republicans are climbing over each other trying to prove how insane they can be, and they are gradually destroying their credibility with the 60-plus percent of the population that hasn't drunk their Kool-Aid and is hopelessly lost.

With a rising economy, successful healthcare reform, no new wars, and landmark victories for gay rights under their belts, the Democrats' platform is looking pretty good for 2016. We could still fuck it up, of course, but as of right now polling strongly favors a Hillary Clinton victory and a possible reclamation of the Senate. The House is probably lost until 2022 thanks to gerrymandering, unfortunately.

edited 9th Mar '15 1:04:59 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Aprilla Since: Aug, 2010
#90736: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:03:00 PM

Nobody here is smug.

You and I must be reading two different threads, then, so we'll have to agree to disagree in that regard.

Otherwise, I hope you're right. I really do.

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#90737: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:29:41 PM

The problem is finding someone who appeals to both the Tea Crazies and the normal people.
And that's where the political calculus gets goofy. It is very difficult for the Republican Party to get a candidate who can soar past the "Always goes to the Primary" Tricorner Teabag Hat constituency of the Tea Party and appeal to them, who doesn't immediately offend the living shit out of the portions of African Americans, White Women, and Latinos who could vote Republican if it weren't for the Tea Party toxicity.

(Hell there is a portion of the Female-White-Republican voter base that votes Democrat because they realize their own party has gone gonzo on basic female genital medical care.)

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#90738: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:33:56 PM

I kind of agree with Aprilla, though I wouldn't go as far as calling it smugness or calling out Fighteer, specifically. This thread just has a feeling to it that if you didn't browse through it for awhile, would be really off-putting.

edited 9th Mar '15 1:38:28 PM by LSBK

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#90739: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:35:47 PM

Our purest and bitterest enemy right now is the media establishment itself, because the major networks fully buy into the story of false centrism that's causing everyone to believe in the following fairy tales:

  • Democrats and Republicans are equally culpable for political gridlock and are equally extreme.
  • The federal debt is a serious, even existential issue for our country.
  • Inflation (rather than deflation) is a serious, even existential issue for our country.
  • Scientific issues like climate change are a matter of opinion and agreement rather than fact.
  • Economic issues like stimulus and interest rates are a matter of opinion and agreement rather than fact.
  • Evil Terrorists are coming to destroy our families if we don't stop them with all the military might at our disposal.
  • "Scandals" like using private emails at the State Department are important in any way, shape, or form.
  • Obamacare is a disaster or a pending disaster.
  • X (where X is something you personally care about) is under attack from Y (where Y is terrorists or government or immigrants). Basically, You Can Panic Now.
  • Wealth/income inequality is a new thing, or is a matter of opinion and agreement rather than fact.

When most people are polled on their individual political beliefs, they are often surprised to find out that they reside firmly within the Democratic platform. This is because the media has very successfully obscured the Democratic platform.

edited 9th Mar '15 1:40:38 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Greenmantle V from Greater Wessex, Britannia Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Hiding
V
#90740: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:39:23 PM

[up] Not the "Establishment" in General?note 

edited 9th Mar '15 1:39:49 PM by Greenmantle

Keep Rolling On
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#90741: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:39:44 PM

Economic issues like stimulus and interest rates are a matter of opinion and agreement rather than fact.
This is not entirely wrong persay. There's good points of where and when, but Economics is a soft squishy social science since it deals with well, Humans. And basically would require an ubermensch computer to figure out what is "true or not".

It is a somewhat hazy science, but we are getting some pretty lousy policy decisions.

Scandals like using private emails at the State Department are important in any way, shape, or form.
It's relevant because it makes Hillary look sleazy and morally questionable and gives Republicans "BENGZHAI" ammo.

Wealth/income inequality is a new thing, or is a matter of opinion and agreement rather than fact.
The amount of Wealth/Income Inequality is a subjective issue, not an objective one. The objective fact here would be that too much inequality tends to lead to systematic revolution/revolt (either by the Voting Ballet or the Axe). The subjective part is the line limit.

edited 9th Mar '15 1:43:15 PM by PotatoesRock

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#90742: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:41:29 PM

[up] Nnnope. Poll real economists: people who actually work in the field rather than expound on TV, and you'll find much broader agreement on fundamental issues than the media would have us believe.

Edit: I said relevant, not important. It's only important because the media wants us to care about it because they get ratings from tearing apart prominent people.

edited 9th Mar '15 1:42:10 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#90743: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:45:46 PM

[up] Nnnope. Poll real economists: people who actually work in the field rather than expound on TV, and you'll find much broader agreement on fundamental issues than the media would have us believe.
Krugman reading, I guess. There is agreement, but there's also "The science is up to revision when it proves wrong, and we admit it, and its a squishy science.". The problem comes down to partisan fringing (which are usually the Talking Heads).

Greenmantle V from Greater Wessex, Britannia Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Hiding
V
#90744: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:46:51 PM

[up] But wouldn't that make physics "squishy"?

Keep Rolling On
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#90745: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:48:03 PM

[up][up]Isn't that all science, though?

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#90746: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:48:10 PM

The point is that people who call economics a "soft science" are blatantly ignoring the vast amounts of hard data and calculation involved. It is a statistical science, made up of aggregating and analyzing data. The fact is that it satisfies all the requirements of a hard science: you can develop hypotheses, test them against past data, then use them to predict future data.

Keynesianism, in its various modern incarnations and revisions, passes those tests easily. The ideology and charlatanism that pass for economics among conservatives and even some far-out liberals aren't science by any definition.

The amount of Wealth/Income Inequality is a subjective issue, not an objective one.
Again, no it ain't. It is one of the easiest things in the world to show: we have all the hard data we need to show that the top 1% earn X amount more than everyone else, and the top 0.1% earn X amount more than the top 1%, etc.

What I think you mean is that the implications of these facts are up for debate, except we go back to the same old hard data that I was just talking about. It is conclusive at this point that wealth inequality is a primary cause of social and political disruption.

The only reason that these facts are up for debate in any way whatsoever is that those wealthy people have a perverse self-interest in using their wealth to dominate media in order to obfuscate the issue, so that they can keep accumulating wealth.

edited 9th Mar '15 1:55:36 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#90747: Mar 9th 2015 at 1:59:52 PM

[up] But wouldn't that make physics "squishy"?
It's a squishy science because it's a Social Science. Yes there's math, but you also have to figure in behaviors and irrationality. It's technically in the same family as Psychology, Sociology, Anthropology and Political Science because they're the sciences of Humanity.

What I think you mean is that the implications of these facts are up for debate, except we go back to the same old hard data that I was just talking about. It is conclusive at this point that wealth inequality is a primary cause of social and political disruption.
"Where the limits of it are are up to debate"

edited 9th Mar '15 2:00:35 PM by PotatoesRock

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#90748: Mar 9th 2015 at 2:02:47 PM

You mean the ideal wealth levels to maintain politically and socially stable societies that maximize freedom and opportunity? We haven't ever had such a society, but we've come awfully close in many places, and we do have a lot of data about what doesn't work.

There is a fundamental problem in that humans may be too inherently short-sighted and herd-minded to ever maintain such a society, but that doesn't mean we should throw up our hands and stop trying.

edited 9th Mar '15 2:03:39 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#90749: Mar 9th 2015 at 2:05:21 PM

The problem with this thread is that folks who disagree with the consensus tend to get banned, which sounds bad on the surface, but having been a regular poster in here for a few years and having seen a few people come and go, it's a fairly objective process by which the dissenters get discouraged.

I don't have a particular smugness about the Democratic party, myself. Demography doesn't lie and the Republicans aren't willing to put candidates out there who have sane policy answers, or when they do, those people *get* insane to get through the primary. See the Character Derailment of John McCain and Mitt Romney, aka the guy who friggin' piloted the ACA at the state level!

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#90750: Mar 9th 2015 at 2:11:21 PM

There's a difficult line to draw here. Part of the problem is that the kind of conservatism that is represented in the Tea Party ideology is inherently impervious to the kinds of fact-based discussions that we encourage here.

None of the people banned from OTC have had that happen because of their political views per se — aside from obvious things like raging homophobia or misogyny — but rather for poor argumentation style, refusing to accept competing evidence, and/or throwing out blatant strawman or ad hominem arguments. That this is a hallmark of what passes for debate in right-wing circles is their fault, not ours. We have also tossed people for extreme arguments on the other side of the spectrum — anarcho-communism for example.

What we want, first and foremost, is for this to be a pleasant place to discuss political topics. It's hard to do that when people are shouting at each other or waving flags in each other's faces. We are always open to evidence contradicting our beliefs. I've changed a few beliefs myself over the course of my years here, but if you're going to come in and assert something, you'd better be prepared to back it up.

edited 9th Mar '15 2:21:07 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

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