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storyyeller More like giant cherries from Appleloosa Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: RelationshipOutOfBoundsException: 1
More like giant cherries
#90701: Mar 9th 2015 at 8:43:06 AM

Also, the UK has FPTP with multiple parties, and they see huge disparities in representation compared to actual number of votes.

Blind Final Fantasy 6 Let's Play
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#90702: Mar 9th 2015 at 8:48:41 AM

That really has to do with the district-drawing inherent in FPTP. Even when the powers that be aren't massive gerrymandering districts, lopsided districts are still going to exist such that a parliamentary majority might not represent a plurality of votes.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#90703: Mar 9th 2015 at 8:53:03 AM

The parties have too much to gain from gerrymandering to ever surrender redistricting to a supposedly independent body — or rather, that's the perception. Changing it to be independent would be a huge gain for sanity in our politics, but each side feels that it would stand to lose.

edited 9th Mar '15 8:54:08 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#90704: Mar 9th 2015 at 9:33:48 AM

Nah, Dems would clearly stand to gain in the majority of states, unless they manage to get their state-level game up in the next 10 years (although the beauty of the 2020 census is that it's a presidential election year, so they're unlikely to do as bad as 2010, even if they don't win the white house that year)

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#90705: Mar 9th 2015 at 9:42:04 AM

Dems don't want to lose the chance to do their own gerrymandering when the demographics shift. Or at least, enough of them feel that way to defeat any attempt to amend the Constitution to change it. For example, think how you'd vote if you held one of the "super safe" district seats that's only that way because it's a stain on the map that would make Rorschach proud.

Individual self-interest trumps collective self-interest.

edited 9th Mar '15 9:49:03 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Khudzlin Since: Nov, 2013
#90706: Mar 9th 2015 at 9:43:05 AM

[up][up] I thought the census wasn't taken into account the year it was done.

edited 9th Mar '15 9:43:19 AM by Khudzlin

Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#90707: Mar 9th 2015 at 10:13:41 AM

Right: the first election impacted by the 2020 census will be the 2022 elections, but the districts will be drawn by state-houses which will be elected in the 2020 elections as well: so the 2020 census reapportions house seats and marks who lives where, the Class of 2020 in state capitols nationwide redraw the districts accordingly, and then in two years elections are held based upon that.

NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#90708: Mar 9th 2015 at 10:43:49 AM

Florida's Department of Environmental Protection ordered not to use the terms "global warming" or "climate change".

As if we needed another reason to hate Rick Scott.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#90709: Mar 9th 2015 at 10:46:55 AM

The Canadian government has been doing that for almost a decade, and for all government employees speaking to the public. The Republicans are getting sloppy.tongue

edited 9th Mar '15 10:47:08 AM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#90710: Mar 9th 2015 at 10:47:37 AM

I saw that in a tabloid here which however said that it applied to everybody, not just a department.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#90711: Mar 9th 2015 at 11:16:59 AM

Stan Collender: This Will Be The GOP Congress’ Last Chance For Salvation:

“[In] the debate on the congressional budget resolution… neither of the two procedural impediments that stopped the GOP dead in its tracks on DHS will exist… …That will give congressional Republicans the only chance they may get all year to impose their preferences…. Budget resolutions can’t be filibustered… [are] a concurrent resolution…. In theory, therefore… both houses [should] adopt a Republican-preferred version of a budget resolution…. But… it’s not obvious that any budget resolution acceptable to Senate Republicans will go far enough to appease the House GOP…. This will be the GOP Congress’ best… opportunity…. If they can’t even agree on a budget, it will be the GOP itself that is to blame and damnation will likely be ahead.

Jonathan Chait: "Dan Pfeiffer on How the White House Learned to Be Liberal"

“Dan Pfeiffer… has been involved from the outset in navigating the central contradiction at the heart of Obama’s public persona… …He ran as a figure who could overcome partisan polarization, yet he has instead presided over more of it despite accomplishing the majority of the substantive agenda he promised. Obama and his spokespeople have spent most of their administration quietly at war with the conventional wisdom in Washington over the cause of this failure…. Structural forces… rising polarization… the disintegration of restrictions on campaign finance… the news media… people select only sources that will confirm their preexisting beliefs. All of this combined makes communication with Republicans mostly hopeless…. Demographic change will eventually force Republicans to compete with Democrats for some of the same voters, reopening a national political conversation….

The original premise of Obama’s first presidential campaign was that he could reason with Republicans…. It took years for the White House to conclude that this was false, and that, in Pfeiffer’s words, ‘what drives 90 percent of stuff is not the small tactical decisions or the personal relationships but the big, macro political incentives.’ If you had to pinpoint the moment this worldview began to crystallize, it would probably be around the first debt-ceiling showdown, in 2011…. Ever since Republicans took control of the House four years ago, [Obama’s] attempts to court Republicans have mostly failed while simultaneously dividing Democratic voters. Obama’s most politically successful maneuvers, by contrast, have all been unilateral and liberal…. ‘There’s never been a time when we’ve taken progressive action and regretted it.’ This was deeply at odds with the lesson Bill Clinton and most of his aides (many of whom staffed Obama’s administration) had taken away from his presidency. But by the beginning of Obama’s second term, at least, the president seemed fully convinced…

edited 9th Mar '15 11:20:41 AM by PotatoesRock

AnSTH Lawful Evil Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#90712: Mar 9th 2015 at 11:20:18 AM

Florida's Department of Environmental Protection ordered not to use the terms "global warming" or "climate change".

That just encourages them to get creative. Climate shift. Global average temperature rise. The End of Human Life as We Know It. Might end up with new buzzwords that are more effective than global warming and shoot yourself in the foot.

But that's a story for another time.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#90713: Mar 9th 2015 at 11:26:22 AM

[up][up] In other words, it took four-plus years for centrist, reasonable Obama to turn into give-no-fucks Obama. He'd realized it by the fifth and sixth years but was hamstrung from within his own party by Congressmen who were running scared of the 2014 midterms.

Let's hope that Hillary Clinton starts out her term, should she win, as give-no-fucks Hillary, because that's what we need more than anything.

edited 9th Mar '15 11:40:18 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#90714: Mar 9th 2015 at 11:41:56 AM

Highly unlikely due to the need to have at least some working relationship with the House, which, again, will be untouchably red until at least 2023 (post-2022 elections)

Soopor Agent Peacock from Talon IV (Troper Knight) Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
Agent Peacock
#90715: Mar 9th 2015 at 11:53:43 AM

So, what happens if the 2016 election ends in a Republican president? With a Red House and a Red White House, what level of sewage will we be wading in if that's the outcome?

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#90716: Mar 9th 2015 at 11:55:15 AM

Quite a lot but on the plus side if the country survives we'll have the country for a loooong time.

Oh really when?
PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#90717: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:09:44 PM

So, what happens if the 2016 election ends in a Republican president? With a Red House and a Red White House, what level of sewage will we be wading in if that's the outcome?
Off the top of my head, if the Democrats don't block shit?

  • Anti-Union Legislation?
  • Dissolving of the ATF?
  • Dissolving of the EPA?
  • Abortion Bans
  • Keystone XL passed
  • Repeal of the ACA if they're rabid enough
  • Tough new immigration laws
  • Probably a bunch of Vice Laws
  • Tax Cuts and Tax Breaks for Companies and the Rich
  • Lots of Welfare cuts

Obamacare's costs are falling as fewer recieve coverage under the ACA the CBO says:

The Congressional Budget Office announced on Monday that the Affordable Care Act will cost $142 billion, or 11 percent, less over the next 10 years, compared to what the agency had projected in January.

The nonpartisan agency said the Affordable Care Act will cost less for two essential reasons. The first, and most significant, is that health insurance premiums are rising more slowly, and thus requires less of a government subsidy.

In addition, slightly fewer people are now expected to sign up for Medicaid and for subsidized insurance under the law’s marketplaces. That’s because the agency now says that more people than anticipated already had health insurance before the law took effect, and fewer companies than anticipated are canceling coverage.

edited 9th Mar '15 12:12:16 PM by PotatoesRock

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#90718: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:11:47 PM

There won't be a Republican President in 2020, that's for damn sure... assuming Democrats are still allowed to vote.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Gabrael from My musings Since: Nov, 2011 Relationship Status: Is that a kind of food?
#90719: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:12:56 PM

Hopefully. I am not confident with my country's attention span and common sense not to take anything as certain.

"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - Aszur
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#90720: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:13:43 PM

[up][up][up]Possible military strikes on Iran as well.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#90721: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:13:45 PM

Besides, it's not clear to me why you are assuming that they won't get bogged down in gridlock again. If one thing has to be learned from recent US history (aside from the obvious: The midterm electorate has no governing chops at all) is that a majority in a parliament doesn't guarantee anything.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Aprilla Since: Aug, 2010
#90722: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:16:34 PM

There won't be a Republican President in 2020, that's for damn sure... assuming Democrats are still allowed to vote.

You don't know that.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#90723: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:17:31 PM

The most likely scenario is that we'd get another figure like Bush II who fucks everything up through inaction and incompetence rather than through deliberate malice. The electorate simply won't put someone crazy like Paul Ryan in charge.

[up] Don't know what? That we'd kick someone like Paul Ryan out of office after four years or that Republicans would try to cement their rule by disenfranchisement?

edited 9th Mar '15 12:18:44 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#90724: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:22:45 PM

Am I allowed to flee the country if the Republicans with the White House and Congress or is that too much?

Oh really when?
Aprilla Since: Aug, 2010
#90725: Mar 9th 2015 at 12:23:19 PM

[up][up]Are you really that smug and self-assured that a Republican victory would be totally unfeasible? I'm not trying to take your statement too literally, but unless you have some kind of magic 8-ball telling you this, it's really just a crude prediction that doesn't account for unforeseen variables in our future voting process.

edited 9th Mar '15 12:23:33 PM by Aprilla


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