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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
People will rapidly discover that the convenience of not having to drive vastly eclipses any recreational value they get from the experience.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Car ownership and drivers license rates have already been falling a lot among the young. Once self driving cars become affordable, they will likely go off a cliff.
For what it's worth, I don't have a car, though I'm fortunate to live in a place where I can get by decently without one.
Anyway, it's interesting to ponder the implications. On the one hand, there will be vast savings in lives, fuel, efficiency, and money. On the other, car ownership will likely be replaced by a self driving Uber.
I remember one time speculating about whether we'll one day see Net Neutrality for roads, with competing auto-Taxi companies trying to monopolize roads or legislate each other out of existence.
Blind Final Fantasy 6 Let's Play![]()
It's something every single person will need, so it will essentially commoditize — become so standardized that there's no room to cheat.
And that's a tiny, tiny percentage of cars sold today. If you read what I wrote, you'd realize that I fully acknowledge that manual cars will persist, as will car ownership, among enthusiasts and the wealthy. For the average consumer, though, they'll be as dead as driving stick — or riding a horse.
edited 16th Dec '14 8:38:14 PM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Nope, it's still lacking for an awful lot of people. From a market perspective, it's treated as a luxury: doled out grudgingly to those who can't afford it or don't live in a place where it is economical to run lines to. The United States is way behind other First World countries in this regard.
To be sure, pooled autocar services will not materialize for everyone in this country out of the benevolence of the free market. They will require regulatory oversight. But it won't be like taxi service, because the driver is out of the picture and along with the driver go countless liability issues. For example, you don't need a criminal background check for a computer, and you don't have to worry about the autocar taking passengers to a secluded spot and raping them.
In fairness, liability will change to users of these services attempting to hijack or vandalize the cars. Security will absolutely be an issue; we've seen it in a nascent state with drone delivery services.
edited 16th Dec '14 9:04:48 PM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"From the drivers point of view, it will obviously be different. But I'm not sure that it will be so different from the customers point of view. Most likely people will flag down cars on demand from a smartphone app, much like they do today.
Blind Final Fantasy 6 Let's PlayI'd rather think that most people will order the car to come to their location at a scheduled time. Large cities would probably have a combination of these and "cab stands" at busy locations where autocars would wait to accept passengers. Scheduling would probably preclude the ability to instantly order a vehicle to wherever you happen to be.
edited 16th Dec '14 9:12:37 PM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"America's size alone assures that private car ownership will never die. Some places are just too far away to manage without a car.
I would love a monorail system. Aprilla is right. My commute sucks balls. And even if I didnt have to drive the streets here are not safe for long term walking or riding a bike.
US citizens just really hate taxes and we hate spending money on anything that cannot be proven valuable to the individual casting the vote.
We're pretty selfish like that.
"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - AszurAs a side note on manual transmissions, Fighteer is technically correct. Something like 1 out of 5 or 1 out of 6 people know how to drive stick, and modern computerized automatic transmissions are becoming fuel-efficient enough to negate the previous advantages of driving stick save for performance purposes. I'm a real stickler for driving stick solely because I prefer it in sports cars, but for the basic commute vehicles, it's just about unnecessary. Manual transmissions are also easier to repair than automatic transmissions, but that's also changing with improvements being made in transmission designs.
I'm still clinging to stick gearboxes while I can, but I won't be surprised if sports cars and even some off-road towing vehicles will totally switch over to semi-automatic paddle shifting.
Politically and environmentally speaking, this means understanding the difference between what you personally want and what society needs. I don't see the moral, legal or political point in making a huge fuss over EPA regulations that indirectly impose limits on sports car engine and emission system designs. My motor is basically a slightly nerfed version of the original B13 design that was used in the RX-7, and while that compromise sucks from a gearhead's point of view, I'd rather deal with a slight decrease in power instead of having air and water that taste like Valvoline. Call me a tree hugger if you'd like, but that's the way I see it. It's not a popular opinion in car subculture.
edited 16th Dec '14 9:33:12 PM by Aprilla
Self driving cars kind of scares the shit out of me.
I'm also not getting how these things existing would somehow get rid of the idea or use of personal car ownership. Like... people put their whole lives in their cars. My mom uses hers to haul art stuff to shows her students sign up for. I know people who store stuff in there. Hell I leave stuff in there on accident all the time and I'd lose my stuff if I shared with someone who wasn't family. It's like... people use their own cars for a lot of things that would prohibit a communal sharing of said cars because it'd mean they'd have to massively inconvenience themselves. Self driving or not, I don't think there's going to be a massive or total switch to this communal pool of cars.
Also, Texas could use a monorail system of its own! It'd probably provide a hell of a lot faster way to get to my sister's down in Houston. And, considering the traffic jam my mom got caught in a month ago, a hell of a lot less obnoxious way too. (A four hour drive turned into over twice that because they shut down an entire fucking highway for some reason just as she was leaving the city. Oh my god.)
edited 16th Dec '14 10:15:39 PM by AceofSpades
Resident Bollywood Nerd
A monorail? In Texas? Oh noes teh socialism!
And I guess some people will switch - people whose places of work aren't near many active bus or train stations, or who struggle with parking, or simply as a taxi. Personal car ownership will reduce, but slightly - cars are personal identities, especially in the United States.
edited 16th Dec '14 10:20:17 PM by arcanephoenix
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There is high-speed rail going up between Dallas and Houston, but I would also like some major railways added to the Houston metro. Like a railway between Houston and Galveston with off-shoots toward LBJ Space Center and the Kemah Boardwalk and stops at the major cities along I-45. But instead, they built a bypass for NASA Rd. 1 a few years back, and are improving the traffic flow for the streets crossing the Interstate.
Houston traffic can be unbearable.
edited 16th Dec '14 10:34:15 PM by tclittle
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."For the record, I don't recall anyone explicitly stating that personal cars will totally disappear from the US or that it will happen rapidly.
Anywho...
NY Times - Every Election Is the Most Expensive Election. Or Not.
edited 16th Dec '14 10:50:19 PM by Aprilla
IT was Fighteer on the previous page that suggested that personal car ownership might become obselete and we'd all buy into a communal pool of cars. Yeah, as long as cars are a thing we use I think that there's gonna be plenty of non-rich class people who own their own. There's just some places where having a train or a bus wouldn't help, and in those places having to wait for a car to come by would also be inconvenient. Also, some people just drive a heck of a lot.
@Tclittle: I'm familiar with DART and that one line that goes to Arlington, but I've never heard of a passenger train that goes into Houston. I've seen their dinky little downtown line though, and it hardly goes anywhere. Apparently Perry or their mayor took funding from expanding that and put it into some boondoggle years ago.
This is the Houston-Dallas high-speed rail I'm talking about.
But yeah, the Houston Metrorail was pretty much defunded by various mayors plus people's lack of enthusiasm on the subject (when the construction was ruining some of their business), and the fact it is pretty much owned by the same company which runs Houston's bus lines.
I personally don't live in Houston myself though. I do know it goes to some of the more important areas (NRG Stadium and the Medical Center, whih are only a few miles apart anyways).
edited 16th Dec '14 11:03:33 PM by tclittle
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."That looks fairly new, so that probably explains why I haven't heard of it. Believe me, if mom had known about this at any point previously, she'd have started using it earlier because she hates that long drive. (Roughly four hours, and she hates driving at night even more.) Interesting.
Anyway, DART's aggressively expanding up here, with their line straight into the airport being their latest. Who knows, maybe with their expansion over north Texas people in general in the state will change their minds about public transportation. DART has light rails 'and' buses, so it's not like they're relying on one method here.
It's really not even up yet. I think the ground breaking has been done, but it is not expected to be done until at least 2020, and then there will be the lawsuits stemming from the way Texas uses eminent domain.
I'm aware that this is the US thread, but stick shifting is still the norm in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. I've never heard of it being seen as technologically behind automatic shifting nor the latter advertised as somehow an advancement over manual. You can get automatics here but if it's more than 1 in 7 or 8 I'd be surprised.
Having bought a car recently I know no one is pushing autos.
My name is Addy. Please call me that instead of my username.The cars in the UK are often much smaller than the cars in America as well. It was an odd sight for a visitor to see. But it makes sense. A Cadillac escalade would have a bitch time trying to park anywhere but a Tesco, let alone fit down some of those streets. (I spent more time driving in Wales, that was an experience.)
"Psssh. Even if you could catch a miracle on a picture any person would probably delete it to make space for more porn." - AszurYou see, folks? Give an inch, expect the rest to be yanked away as fast as they can box up the lobbying cash.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

@Jack: Streetcars were "identity" in the Big Cities, until Big Auto business bought them up and left the regular man with an unrefusable offer.
The same thing can and likely will happen with self-driven cars.