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GNinja The Element of Hyperbole. from The deepest, darkest corner of his mind. Since: Apr, 2015 Relationship Status: I'd need a PowerPoint presentation
The Element of Hyperbole.
#386376: May 19th 2022 at 2:37:34 PM

[up] What about the people who stand to be screwed over by the abandonment of progressivism?

Kaze ni Nare!
Zendervai Since: Oct, 2009
#386377: May 19th 2022 at 2:39:35 PM

If you can't vote for something, vote against something. That's really where we're at currently. Not voting accomplishes nothing. All it does is send the message that there's no point in satisfying your needs.

This is a masterful piece of goalpost moving, Fighteer, you could win a competition with goalpost moving of that level.

It is an actual problem that no one has any idea what the Democrat platform even is. It is a huge problem. The undecided voters need to be sold on who they vote for, otherwise they won't bother. The Republicans have like three different propaganda sources on their side, and the Democrats just kinda mumble about how they're not as bad as the other guy. Like, huh, I wonder why the people putting meaningful effort into PR are the ones winning the battle here.

So, again, what is the Democrat platform? How are they selling themselves to the oh so important undecided voters? What are they telling people that's so important that extremely vulnerable communities should be willing to sacrifice themselves for? There are tens of millions of people who are at extreme risk from the current Republican approach and the Democrats just keep saying garbage like "we need a strong Republican party".

Why should they be obligated to vote for a party that did fuck all to help them? Why should they vote for a party that is like "Instead of the dystopian future the other guys are promising, vote for us and our complete lack of a future vision! We'll just make sure their future happens a bit slower!"

Edited by Zendervai on May 19th 2022 at 5:41:33 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#386378: May 19th 2022 at 2:42:00 PM

Shiny: I'm reminded of a scene from the film Lincoln, where Abraham Lincoln has his secretary of state secretly hire a trio of lobbyists to offer "patronage" to Democrats in the House of Representatives if they break with their party and for in favor of the Thirteenth Amendment to abolish slavery. One of them quips it'd be easier to just bribe them. The Sec of State says they can't to anything strictly illegal, to which another of the lobbyists responds:

Balmung Since: Oct, 2011
#386379: May 19th 2022 at 2:47:06 PM

If the Democrats don't have bad PR, then I'm rather miffed at how they can only ever maintain a slim majority over a party that runs on broadly unpopular issues. Across the board, most Republican policy positions poll much worse than the Democratic positions, be it healthcare, abortion, gun control, minimum wage, or half a hundred other things.

Yet the Democrats seem to have difficulty turning a platform of broadly popular issues into actual effective majorities.

The Democrats absolutely have bad PR. They can't shake the image of being a bunch of fiscally-irresponsible pie-in-the-sky ivory tower elites who aren't responsive to the issues people care about at any given time and who don't seem to actually fight for their stated agenda. They keep coming off as inconsistent, wishy-washy, and condescending.

Meanwhile, the Republicans despite having abhorrent and unpopular positions are great at PR. Remember, they've been able to sell themselves for decades as the party of fiscal responsibility, sound morals, and sensible values in the face of mountains of evidence to the contrary.

You can say "go vote against the latter even if you can't for the former", but I'm not your target audience on that. That's not convincing anyone who sees one side as useless and the other as evil to go vote for useless because at least it isn't evil.

Also, just to reiterate, I'm not saying they are these things, I'm saying they're seen these ways.

I'd also like to add that there's a perception that "ugh fine, just vote against the evil Republicans" simply allows the Democrats to be even less responsive and more distant because they're seen as counting on how awful their opposition is to avoid actually doing good themselves. That voting blue, no matter who in fact sends the message that there is no point in satisfying your needs because you will always give the Democrats your vote for simply showing up and being less evil than the Republicans.

Edited by Balmung on May 19th 2022 at 4:55:44 AM

Zendervai Since: Oct, 2009
#386380: May 19th 2022 at 2:54:30 PM

It's also a horrible motivator. When it's just "vote against evil" ad nauseum, it causes burnout, especially when the party they're voting for won't fucking do anything of note or if they do manage to do something, refuse to talk about it or capitalize on it.

NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#386381: May 19th 2022 at 2:55:34 PM

Okay, so what is the Democrat messaging? What are they championing? What are they condemning? What is their clear and coherent platform? What are the achievements of the Biden presidency that they're telling everyone about and banking on?

I feel like I'm going to list a bunch of stuff that Democrats have said are important to them, you're going to say "okay but what have they accomplished, though?" and I'm going to list a few things that you're going to dismiss as unimportant to The Voting Public, then it's going to descend into an argument about the political balance of a 49-Democrat-plus-Joe-Manchin Senate and whether or not "we didn't get this done with a 50-plus-tiebreaker Senate, but vote for us even harder and we promise we'll do better next time" is an acknowledgment of political reality or an attempt at ducking responsibilities for their failure to get shit done.

Or maybe I'm just getting cynical.

If their PR is just not aimed at us, why is it seemingly failing to get anything across to the people it is aimed at?

This is exactly what I meant by having a warped perspective. Why do you think it's failing to get across? From what I've seen of the polling numbers, the midterms are looking like a toss-up right now. That's actually really good for Democrats, given that midterms are generally a referendum on the first two years of the president's term. The fact that Biden has spent two years putting out Trump-era fires and being stymied by the conservative wing of his own party but voters are still willing to support him at more-or-less the same rate as they were in 2020 is a big argument for the conclusion that Democratic messaging is working. The message is "we're doing everything we can but this is a marathon and not a sprint, we need your continued support if we're going to keep working at it" and voters seem to be accepting it.

Because if neither side is representing a large amount of the population's views

Let me be blunt: they are not a large amount of the population. You're talking about a fraction of a fraction. The group you're referring to would be the "progressive left" on Pew Research's political typology chart from last year. They make up 6% of the population at large and 12% of the committed Democratic voter base.

That ain't much. Low-information centrists (which the Pew Research piece calls "stressed sideliners", though that's a little cutesy for my tastes) make up a bigger portion of the Democratic base than that. This is exactly the thing I was talking about in my last post about why it's important to understand where you actually sit in relation to the rest of the country. You are the extreme leftist fringe. That doesn't mean your positions are wrong or that you should change your views to something more moderate. But talking about "why shouldn't we just start a revolution then?" is ludicrous. You can't overthrow anything with 6% of the population.

Other people have already covered the pragmatic reasons for why voting Democrat is your best bet for getting the outcomes you want, so I won't rehash those arguments. But withdrawing from the system and voting third party or refusing to vote at all as some kind of principled stand is an enormously privileged position. You can only afford to throw political pragmatism to the wind and "vote your conscience" if you know you'll do alright no matter who ends up in office.

There's a reason that the "progressive left" is the only majority white non-Hispanic group within Pew's Democratic coalition.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
Zendervai Since: Oct, 2009
#386382: May 19th 2022 at 2:56:31 PM

I'm not actually going to move the goalposts. I genuinely want to know how the Democrats are selling themselves. That's the point. What are they saying. Like, what's showing up in their ads?

Edited by Zendervai on May 19th 2022 at 5:57:16 AM

doineedaname from Eastern US Since: Nov, 2010
#386383: May 19th 2022 at 2:56:41 PM

Yet the Democrats seem to have difficulty turning a platform of broadly popular issues into actual effective majorities.

Land determing the value of votes along with Republican cheating the system even more to their benefit is a huge factor in that. Getting more votes in the wrong spots amounts to absolutely nothing, of total votes became all that mattered, the Republicans would be doomed.

Edited by doineedaname on May 19th 2022 at 5:58:11 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#386384: May 19th 2022 at 3:06:18 PM

Also, people don’t vote for policies, they vote for people.

When policies are actually being voted on (via ballot measures) the Democrat advocated policies do incredibly well.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#386385: May 19th 2022 at 3:09:15 PM

Fetterman "A Different Kind of Democrat" just won his primary for the PA senate seat, and this was his most recent ad.

Balmung Since: Oct, 2011
#386386: May 19th 2022 at 3:10:47 PM

I feel like there's some slight of hand going on in Pew's separation between the "outsider left" and "progressive left", as well as your own focus on the "progressive left" over the "outsider left", especially given that of the two, those defined as "progressive left" are the more likely reliable blue votes. The difference in favorability to the Democratic party is broadly more significant than the differences in their position, with the "progressive left" being identified by being strongly pro-Democrat and the "outsider left" being the group most ambivalent towards the party. In fact, while the Republican segments easily map about as well to how strongly pro-Republican party they are and how far-right their views are, the Democratic ones are colored only really by how pro-Democratic party they are.

And for all the condescension aimed at "young progressives", it's the "outsider left" that is the youngest segment, as well as the most disillusioned with the party, and isn't as easily written off as "a bunch of privileged white kids", and they're nearly twice as large a segment.

Also, for the accusation that the "progressive left" doesn't get out and vote, Pew reported them as the bloc with the highest turnout in 2020 at 86% (narrowly edging out "faith and flag conservatives", who turned out at 85%).

Oh, also, this is just objectively false:

There's a reason that the "progressive left" is the only majority white non-Hispanic group within Pew's Democratic coalition.

The "progressive left" is the most strongly majority-white bloc in the Democratic coalition, but not the only majority-white bloc. If you'll check the actual Pew study and look at the demographics, "establishment liberals" are also majority non-Hispanic white at 51%.

Also, as an odd bit of trivia, of all four Democratic coalition blocs, the "democratic mainstays" were the ones who had the highest rate of defection in the 2020 election, casting their votes for Biden at a lower rate than the other three blocs and for trump at a higher rate.

Edited by Balmung on May 19th 2022 at 5:46:11 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#386387: May 19th 2022 at 3:23:30 PM

And here's Josh Shapiro's, Democratic candidate for PA governor, ad:

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#386389: May 19th 2022 at 3:38:00 PM

And here are their platforms as stated on their websites.

NoName999 Since: May, 2011
#386390: May 19th 2022 at 4:33:21 PM

Michigan election chief: Trump suggested I be arrested for treason and executed

Americans when Trump call for arrests/executions: I sleep

Edited by NoName999 on May 19th 2022 at 4:34:22 AM

minseok42 A Self-inflicted Disaster from A Six-Tatami Room (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
A Self-inflicted Disaster
#386391: May 19th 2022 at 6:48:41 PM

Biden is scheduled to visit Seoul today and Tokyo on Sunday

"Enshittification truly is how platforms die"-Cory Doctorow
NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#386392: May 19th 2022 at 7:03:19 PM

I feel like there's some slight of hand going on in Pew's separation between the "outsider left" and "progressive left", as well as your own focus on the "progressive left" over the "outsider left", especially given that of the two, those defined as "progressive left" are the more likely reliable blue votes.

I called out the progressive left specifically because that was the group being discussed: people who are to the left of the Democratic party in general, and the most likely to abandon it for not being sufficiently progressive. The outsider left are less engaged in politics and less likely to vote in general — but when they do vote, it is overwhelmingly Democrat.

Even if you think I've reversed the two groups, though, the numbers aren't that different. The outsider left is 10% of the overall population and 16% of Democratic voters, instead of 6% and 12% respectively. The overall point is the same: you can't start a popular uprising with those numbers. Even if you combine them (making 16% of the population and 28% of Democrats) that would make them equal in proportion to mainstay Democrats by themselves (16% overall/28% of Democrats), who are never going to support overthrowing the system — to say nothing of, you know, Republicans.

The "progressive left" is the most strongly majority-white bloc in the Democratic coalition, but not the only majority-white bloc. If you'll check the actual Pew study and look at the demographics, "establishment liberals" are also majority non-Hispanic white at 51%.

I cannot find this anywhere. My claim comes from the first page of the website, which says "Progressive Left, the only majority White, non-Hispanic group of Democrats, have very liberal views on virtually every issue" (this is repeated verbatim on page 6 of the full PDF). Searching for "non-Hispanic" on the full PDF didn't show anything. Searching "51%" found the claim that establishment liberals are 51% white without the specification of non-Hispanic (pages 88 and 93).

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
SteamKnight Since: Jun, 2018
#386393: May 19th 2022 at 7:58:07 PM

I always find it weird about the entire Republicans’ good PR stuff since their messages are pretty much “Fuck the minorities, women, and poor. Worship the rich and good-old white patriarchy.” Like their messages are morbidly bad, but the middle classes keep supporting them, unaware that after the poor is gone, they will be the new poor. Heck, some of the people from the groups that they target somehow support them eating their faces live.

I mean they used to carry the “fiscally responsible” banner and it has been years sinxe they drop that banner and people still think they are the party of economy. Is this a problem of good PR or just good old inertia and habits?

A lot of Republicans feel like those people who go to churches or temples because that is what they and their parents always do from childhood, rather than because of faith or belief.

It also make things harder for Democrats since Republicans only need to run on one platform while Democrats have to keep everything on a tight and dangerous balance.

Edited by SteamKnight on May 19th 2022 at 9:59:24 PM

I'm not as witty as I think I am. It's a scientifically-proven fact.
TheRoguePenguin Since: Jul, 2009
#386394: May 19th 2022 at 8:22:47 PM

Their policies are morbidly bad. Their message is blaming Democrats and immigrants for everything, amplified by the most-watched network in this country that never criticizes them.

We see through that nonsense because we're outside the bubble, but too many damn people see nothing but that garbage.

NoName999 Since: May, 2011
#386395: May 19th 2022 at 10:04:25 PM

Republicans: Votes against funding to fix the baby formula shortage, against investigating white supremacy terrorism, and against making it illegal for gas companies to price gauge. All in 24 hours

Americans: It's Biden's fault all of this is happening and it's Biden's fault that Republicans are voting against these things.

Like I heard complaints that Democrats' messaging is too complex and the GOP's much simpler. But that's not factoring that the American people don't seem to warming up to Sanders' simple to understand message of "Corporations are harming you" either.

Edited by NoName999 on May 19th 2022 at 10:05:01 AM

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#386396: May 19th 2022 at 11:24:18 PM

Also, people don’t vote for policies, they vote for people.

When policies are actually being voted on (via ballot measures) the Democrat advocated policies do incredibly well.

This.

Fact of the matter is, policies aren't that important. Congress can't pass laws in the political deadlock that the filibuster creates, so it doesn't really matter what laws a given Congressperson wants to pass. People aren't voting for policies; They're voting for rhetoric.

Unless it includes a plan to sidestep Congress, campaign promises on both sides are all faerie wishes and unicorn farts. The inability to pass policies, good or bad, insulates voters from the consequences of voting for bad policies. American politics aren't about who has better ideas; They're about who makes their doomed ideas sound cooler.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Balmung Since: Oct, 2011
#386397: May 19th 2022 at 11:32:01 PM

First off, goddamn Data Vampires

I called out the progressive left specifically because that was the group being discussed: people who are to the left of the Democratic party in general, and the most likely to abandon it for not being sufficiently progressive. The outsider left are less engaged in politics and less likely to vote in general — but when they do vote, it is overwhelmingly Democrat.

But if you read the poll, that does not seem like a reasonable concern. The group Pew refers to as "progressive left" is actively and enthusiastically pro-Democratic Party, agrees there is a huge difference between the parties, and feels that there are consistently candidates presented who represent their views at a rate only narrowly surpassed by "establishment liberals" (83% of "progressive left" feel this, as do 84% of "establishment liberals", 68% of "democratic mainstays" and 12% of the "outsider left"). By Pew's research, the "progressive left" is the most pro-Biden Democratic group (8% consider him the best president of the last 40 years, with "establishment liberals", "democratic mainstays", and "outsider left" giving him that ranking at rates of 5%, 6%, and 4% respectively) and turned out at the highest rate of any group, Democratic or Republican at 86%, beating out even "faith-and-flag conservatives'" 85% ("establishment liberals" turned out at 78%, "democratic mainstays" at 68%, and "outsider left" at 57%) and did so with the fewest defections at 98% Biden/1% Trump/1% else ("establishment liberals" were 98% Biden/2% Trump/<1% else, "democratic mainstays" were the biggest Democratic defectors at 92% Biden/5% Trump/3% else, and the "outsider left" was 94% Biden/3% Trump/3% else).

Either your concerns of the "progressive left" saying home out of dissatisfaction are unfounded or Pew's definition of the "progressive left" is different from yours.

Even if you think I've reversed the two groups, though, the numbers aren't that different. The outsider left is 10% of the overall population and 16% of Democratic voters, instead of 6% and 12% respectively. The overall point is the same: you can't start a popular uprising with those numbers. Even if you combine them (making 16% of the population and 28% of Democrats) that would make them equal in proportion to mainstay Democrats by themselves (16% overall/28% of Democrats), who are never going to support overthrowing the system — to say nothing of, you know, Republicans.

I don't think I've advocated for an uprising, at least not here, though you'd be surprised how small the cores of historical uprisings usually are.

Those are also numbers large enough that issues important to them should probably be considered strongly. If there's 10% share of the electorate that could turn out but won't because their issues aren't addressed, that is a share that can easily change the outcome of an election. Consider the following: There are about 168 million registered voters in America. This means about 16.8 million of them are "outsider left". With 57% of them turning out to vote and 94% for Biden, that's about 9 million votes for Joe Biden (and about 300,000 for Donald Trump). Now suppose the group cuts their turnout in half and only 28.5% turn out. There are 4.5 million fewer votes cast for Joe Biden. The three smallest margin states (Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona) flip red. Donald Trump is now a two-term president and has a majority in the Senate. Now suppose instead that they turn out at the same rate as "establishment liberals" (78%). That's 3.3 million more votes for Joe Biden and it likely flips the North Carolina Senate race (using the closest Senatorial race won by a Republican) Democrat. Up them to "progressive left" turnout levels (86%) and it's 4.5 million nationwide votes over their actual turnout and makes that NC flip almost certain. Also obviously this would swing several House races.

This "small part of the electorate" can potentially have a very large effect on the turnout of an election.

I cannot find this anywhere. My claim comes from the first page of the website, which says "Progressive Left, the only majority White, non-Hispanic group of Democrats, have very liberal views on virtually every issue" (this is repeated verbatim on page 6 of the full PDF). Searching for "non-Hispanic" on the full PDF didn't show anything. Searching "51%" found the claim that establishment liberals are 51% white without the specification of non-Hispanic (pages 88 and 93).

14. Demographics and lifestyle differences among typology groups. Pew has White and Hispanic broken out as separate groups on their demographics page. Either the demographics page is wrong or the first page has simplified "the only strongly majority White Democratic group" to "the only majority White Democratic group".

NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#386398: May 20th 2022 at 7:20:41 AM

By Pew's research, the "progressive left" is the most pro-Biden Democratic group [...] and turned out at the highest rate of any group

That's fair, it does seem like I've confused the progressive left and the outsider left in terms of who's likely to abandon the Democratic party. I suspect the confusion is from the fact that they tend to present the groups in order of partisanship (ie, most ardently Democrat first) rather than ideology (ie, most ardently leftist first) when I thought they were doing it the other way around. The outsider left is extremely left but not extremely Democrat, which does fit what I was saying earlier about the progressive left. So my bad on that.

But as I said earlier, it changes the numbers but not my ultimate point.

I don't think I've advocated for an uprising, at least not here

I literally wasn't talking to you. I'm not sure why you think I was. I directly quoted this post from Scuba Wolf.

14. Demographics and lifestyle differences among typology groups. Pew has White and Hispanic broken out as separate groups on their demographics page.

It repeats the same thing on that page: "While White adults constitute the majority in all four Republican-oriented groups, they make up a majority in only one of the four Democratic-oriented groups – Progressive Left (68% non-Hispanic White)." You realize that someone can identify as both white and Hispanic, right? You'd only need 2% overlap for 51% white to not be a majority of non-Hispanic white. And either way, it's a moot point, since I should have been talking about the outsider left instead of the progressive left anyway. They're overwhelmingly young, rather than overwhelmingly white. That suggests their mindset is driven by less buy-in to the system as a whole (they haven't been voting/following politics as long as other groups) rather than being comfortable enough in their position to go for high-risk-high-reward stances (if your very-left candidate wins you get very-left policies; if they lose you get right-wing policies instead) like the progressive left.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#386399: May 20th 2022 at 7:48:29 AM

Looking over the Democratic primaries for interesting or encouraging news, the Fetterman race caught my eye again. It was expected that the race between him and Conner Lamb would be tough, Lamb being a former Marine and the more moderate candidate, but Fetterman won in a landslide. I wonder what happened over there?

Balmung Since: Oct, 2011
#386400: May 20th 2022 at 8:10:34 AM

I literally wasn't talking to you. I'm not sure why you think I was.

Because you only quoted me? I feel like it's fair to assume I'm being addressed when I'm the last or only person quoted.

In the post I replied to, there was no quote block from Scuba Wolf.

It repeats the same thing on that page: "While White adults constitute the majority in all four Republican-oriented groups, they make up a majority in only one of the four Democratic-oriented groups "Progressive Left (68% non-Hispanic White)." You realize that someone can identify as both white and Hispanic, right? You'd only need 2% overlap for 51% white to not be a majority of non-Hispanic white.

In their detailed data document (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-BjWhA-McZyEvjDp_kry9WPjK07GHrfw7werH4MeGGs/edit#gid=277360906 ), what is listed simply as White as shown on the graph on the webpage is listed as Non-Hispanic White (as a side note, if you check the Census data, there are some interesting trends in how Hispanic Americans report their race and ethnicity, in particular that in 2020, Hispanic Americans were much less likely to report as White than in the previous three Censuses, where consistently right around half of Hispanic Americans reported as White, and now that's down to a little under 1/5, with reporting shifting heavily to either "Some other race", "Two or more races", or "Native American, Eskimo, and Aleut"). Pew could have said something like that it's in their margin of error, but that caveat aside, 51% is still a majority.

Honestly I'm actually mostly keeping that latter paragraph in because I found the shift in how Hispanics have responded to the Census on their race and ethnicity interesting.

Edited by Balmung on May 20th 2022 at 10:31:27 AM


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