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2020 mod notice:

Because this thread is a central OTC hub for lots of information and news, it is not likely to be locked.

However, for the same reason, the amount of panicking and fearmongering has more potential impact here.

If you are posting unsourced, inflammatory statements, or responding with "we're all doomed!", that is obviously and clearly damaging the quality of this thread. And you will be warned, your post mod-edited, thumped, or suspended if necessary.

Edited by SeptimusHeap on Feb 6th 2020 at 4:18:00 PM

Oct 17th 2020 at 11:36:25 AM

Adding onto this 15 minutes later because I only wrote out half my thoughts before hitting send - the other side of this of course, is that it's also bad to treat it as if 2016 is the absolute indicator of how polling works (as in, we must subtract x-points from the D-numbers in every poll), insist on amplifying only the negative data or look at a 6% lead as somehow being a tie. Which is what I've seen far more than people assuming Biden has it in the bag.


It feels like people are too quick to constantly remind anyone who mentions some good news.

Agreed.

Edited by nova92 on Oct 17th 2020 at 11:37:47 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands
Redmess
Oct 17th 2020 at 11:38:32 AM

People are just a bit paranoid after 2016, that's all. They need to get their confidence back up, and that will probably take a few more elections.

Vote for Biden, or constitutional Chernobyl will come.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
Oct 17th 2020 at 12:11:50 PM

People are just a bit paranoid after 2016, that's all. They need to get their confidence back up, and that will probably take a few more elections.

I think a single victory would be enough, as you say people are paranoid because Clinton lost. A Democrat winning would show that Republican victory is nowhere close to inevitable.

Draghinazzo My love, has dressed me like a clown Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
My love, has dressed me like a clown
Oct 17th 2020 at 12:16:29 PM

I get that people are paranoid but the part that I find annoying (and i'm not addressing anyone here specifically) is the constant comparison to 2016 when we know for a fact there are multiple factors in this election that make it very different from 2016.

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine. ...not really though.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands
Redmess
Oct 17th 2020 at 12:19:43 PM

While that is true, I think it emotionally feels similar to many people, even though rationally speaking it is not the same. And Trump hasn't changed a bit since then, so that part feels similar, since that behaviour didn't deter voters the first time around either.

Vote for Biden, or constitutional Chernobyl will come.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
Oct 17th 2020 at 12:19:57 PM

[up][up]Preach it.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 17th 2020 at 12:20:08 PM

Draghinazzo My love, has dressed me like a clown Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
My love, has dressed me like a clown
Oct 17th 2020 at 12:42:46 PM

While that is true, I think it emotionally feels similar to many people

That's exactly the problem though: I'm not trying to unilaterally dismiss people's feelings or concerns because obviously Trump can win (as has been said by everyone multiple times), but when we have actual data that shows just how different 2020 is from 2016 and people point this out, "I have a bad feeling" isn't really a substantial argument to bring up in this context, in fact it isn't an argument at all. If the person brings up some actual concerns like voter suppression or supreme court shenanigans those are at least arguments that might be worth some consideration. If people feel pessimistic that's their business but the comparison to 2016 is fundamentally flawed for many reasons.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 17th 2020 at 4:43:45 PM

It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine. ...not really though.
Fighteer Would you shut up, man? from political anxiety Relationship Status: Dancing with Captain Jack Harkness
Would you shut up, man?
Oct 17th 2020 at 12:44:19 PM

2020 feels nothing like 2016. I was there then and I'm here now. I'm old enough to have witnessed many elections. This year is utterly unique. Anyone attempting to use past elections to predict this one is either insane or, more likely, trolling for clicks.

Edited by Fighteer on Oct 17th 2020 at 3:44:55 PM

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Oct 17th 2020 at 12:49:35 PM

I remember stating before that the reason many people are reluctant to accept good news is because this year has been one shit-show after another so they're afraid that they shouldn't get their holes up for any reason as some new calamity will come in and eviscerate that hope.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Relationship Status: It's complicated
Oct 17th 2020 at 12:50:27 PM

If anything, it feels like 2008. Where one candidate is ahead across the board but the public doubts they can win.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from a handcart heading to Hell Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
Oct 17th 2020 at 1:00:06 PM

I didn’t follow 2008 closely (though I continue to stand that the 3rd best present I got for my 15th birthday was a Democrat in the Whitehouse), this doesn’t feel like 2012, in 2012 the press we’re pushing to make it a horserace and I remember Obama doing badly in the first debate, while Obama was favoured he wasn’t ahead the way it feels Biden is.

"And the Bunny nails it!" ~ Gabrael "If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we." ~ Cyran
Ultimatum ◕ Disasturbator from England,inside an Amiga Forest Relationship Status: Holding out for a hero
◕ Disasturbator
Oct 17th 2020 at 1:07:26 PM

The ghost of complacency is haunting people, and unfortunely said spook can't/won't be laid to rest until there's a victory

Listen to this ,it's good
Oct 17th 2020 at 2:04:47 PM

I don't know if people remember me saying in January or February that people needed to be very careful this election about the possibility of Trump being re-elected. The reason I stated that (as I explained at the time) was because of the sheer scale of disinformation used in the UK in the run up to the December election.

In 2016, there was massive overlap between the campaign organisers, data analytical companies and donors being used by both the Brexit campaigns and the Trump campaigns. So, when Leave won, I immediately warned Ohian friends of mine to prepare for a Trump victory. The Leave campaign was very much a practice run for tactics that would be used throughout the rest of the year for the Trump campaign.

Those links haven't just continued since 2016, they've intensified. The December 2019 UK election was another practice run for the Trump campaign. The scale of disinformation was unprecedented, so I flagged it on this thread.

Now, I've been watching that disinformation desperately trying to kick into gear, exactly as I was expecting. However, the pandemic hit us. The pandemic, and the degree to which Trump has been unable to handle it, have been the single biggest factor in hampering that disinformation campaign. It's a very strange positive to find in a pandemic that has killed so many people and left others suffering severe, long-term health problems. It is, nevertheless, a positive that does exist.

The single biggest concern for this election is therefore the voter suppression tactics. By that, I mean increasing voter suppression tactics beyond the norm that already exists. I think we got the first large flag about that when Charles mentioned a couple of months ago those Kentucky ballots that only had one voting station per 200,000 people (I can't remember the exact numbers, but Charles can correct me). That's been ramping up steadily with things like dismantling the postal service or individuals being caught dumping mail destined for Democratic areas until that presidential debate where Trump openly called the Proud Boys ('and others') to action.

So, I think there are a lot of unusual twists and turns in this election beyond simply the fact that the kind of environment that Trump and Mitch have between them enabled. It's certainly not going to be easy to compare many aspects of this election to past ones due to a combination of unique factors (like the pandemic) and unique combinations of otherwise normal issues that have been pushed to unusual extremes (for example, voter suppression tactics).

One thing I have been reading about recently is how easy it is to disenfranchise Native American votes due to the requirements for a stable home address. Due to how many reservations work, many people don't have stable home addresses, so any reservation-based polling stations that get closed down automatically make it extremely hard, even impossible, for many Native Americans to vote. Because I was also reading at the same time about the wildfire disasters forcing many Californians to leave their homes so close to the election, it did make me curious about whether some Californians might temporarily experience similar problems on election day to the far more systemic issues that Native Americans struggle with every election.

Edited by Wyldchyld on Oct 17th 2020 at 10:12:40 AM

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and dragon wings for flippers, it's just not worth reading.
SeptimusHeap Farewell, NEOWISE from Switzerland Relationship Status: Mu
Farewell, NEOWISE
Oct 17th 2020 at 2:11:38 PM

Wyldchyld, I remember that you actually said that. I don't think that disinformation would be effective even without COVID-19 mainly b/c Trump is a unrelenting liar and everybody - even his own supporters - knows that. And it's gone so far that even much of his administration is distrusted. Even farther: That many if not most Americans automatically distrust anything Trump says even if it's accurate or at least plausible.

Otherwise, mostly a small nitpick but I noticed that the US webpage about travelling to Switzerland does not seem to understand that Liechtenstein and Switzerland are two separate countries.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Oct 17th 2020 at 2:12:45 PM

The thing with the pandemic has made me sometimes question if it was some sort of "in mysterious ways" method of getting rid of trump and I'm not particularly religious.

Ultimatum ◕ Disasturbator from England,inside an Amiga Forest Relationship Status: Holding out for a hero
◕ Disasturbator
Oct 17th 2020 at 2:27:40 PM

He's getting rid of himself anyway,by making so many bad decisions he's compelling people to actually vote,I'm not religious either

Listen to this ,it's good
Oct 17th 2020 at 2:27:58 PM

God: I thought I made it clear last time, but I guess you need some help seeing the obvious.

Oct 17th 2020 at 2:35:31 PM

[up][up][up][up][up] IIRC, Kentucky's Democratic governor and its Republican Secretary of State have since worked out a plan to help people vote during the pandemic.

Some people, including state officials, have also been addressing your question/point about how those displaced by the wildfires may have more trouble voting. It does affect the Presidential election less because most of the highly affected states are blue states.

Links: 'They Have Lost So Much But They Will Not Lose Their Right To Vote.' Advocates Fight To Enfranchise Americans Displaced by Wildfires, Officials: California wildfire survivors have several voting options

CharlesPhipps Author from Ashland, Ky Relationship Status: Lovey-Dovey
Author
Oct 17th 2020 at 2:50:29 PM

Louisville, KY is a perfect example of how Mitch gets re-elected.

Louisville, Lexington, and Ashland are the only three cities (or anywhere) that vote Blue in Kentucky.

Louisville has a population of 700,000 people.

How many polling stations did Louisville have?

1.

It is also the largest population of black Americans in the state.

Author of The Supervillainy Saga, Cthulhu Armageddon, The United States of Monsters, and Lucifer's Star.
Oct 17th 2020 at 2:51:54 PM

The thing with the pandemic has made me sometimes question if it was some sort of "in mysterious ways" method of getting rid of trump and I'm not particularly religious.

Any deity that needs to arrange for an unprecedented global health, social, and economic disaster to get rid of one asshole is a pretty shitty deity.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands
Redmess
Oct 17th 2020 at 2:56:36 PM

Agreed, that would be very shitty of God, indeed. Killing a million people to get rid of one guy is serious overkill.

Vote for Biden, or constitutional Chernobyl will come.
CharlesPhipps Author from Ashland, Ky Relationship Status: Lovey-Dovey
Author
Oct 17th 2020 at 3:00:47 PM

Yes, I agree.

He might have sent it to afflict Trump but not in general.

:)

Author of The Supervillainy Saga, Cthulhu Armageddon, The United States of Monsters, and Lucifer's Star.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from a handcart heading to Hell Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
Oct 17th 2020 at 3:06:37 PM

The big difference between the UK environment and the US environment is the level of media support for disinformation. In the US Trump has Fox and the New York Post, in the UK the Conservatives pretty much had everyone. Maybe not the Guardian and I guess not the Star, but even the nominally impartial BBC were repeatedly ‘accidentally’ altering footage so as to make Boris look better and their top reporters would repeat Conservative lies as fact (including falsely accusing a Labour candidate of assault). That was what’s meant to be our least-partisan media instruction.

"And the Bunny nails it!" ~ Gabrael "If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we." ~ Cyran
Oct 17th 2020 at 3:08:46 PM

[up][up]Then someone needs to talk to Him about trigger discipline.


In more amusing news:

‘Take Trump to prison’: Houston billboard supporting president defaced

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/take-trump-to-prison-houston-billboard-supporting-president-defaced/

A billboard that recently arrived in a Houston neighborhood in support of Pres. Donald Trump was painted over with a new message this week.

In a tweet, Houston lawyer Rogelio Garcia snapped a photo of the billboard, which is located off I-45 near Telephone Road, reading: “Take Trump to Prison.”

The billboard previously just showed Trump’s name next to an image of the President.

“So Trump drops a big (approx 40×60 feet) expensive political sign in my largely Hispanic neighborhood in Houston TX about a week ago which upset me …. I wake up this morning and this is what the sign looks like now hahahahah,” reads the tweet from Garcia.

The tweet went viral with over 85,400 likes and over 23,000 retweets as of Saturday morning.

The political group Turn Texas Blue took responsibility for the incident on Thursday, tweeting “Trump put up a billboard in Houston last week. We fixed it.”

The group is also taking credit for changing Houston’s iconic — and frequently graffitied — “Be Someone” overpass sign. Ahead of the 2020 Presidential Election, it currently reads, “Vote or Die.”

Edited by sgamer82 on Oct 17th 2020 at 3:09:20 AM

You know how in "Eragon" everyone cries 'a single tear'? Yeah, just TRY that in "One Piece" and see if it works. - Formerly Narm Charm
Oct 17th 2020 at 3:12:30 PM

Wyldchyld, I remember that you actually said that. I don't think that disinformation would be effective even without COVID-19 mainly b/c Trump is a unrelenting liar and everybody - even his own supporters - knows that. And it's gone so far that even much of his administration is distrusted. Even farther: That many if not most Americans automatically distrust anything Trump says even if it's accurate or at least plausible.

Replace 'Trump' with 'Boris' and this paragraph is equally true.

The disinformation doesn't succeed or fail on the basis of how trustworthy the leader or administration is. It's bizarre and doesn't seem logical, but that's what's so insidious about successful disinformation campaigns. They succeed despite everyone knowing this.

Three examples that exist from the 2019 election include a 'government' pamphlet that was sent around homes in Wales to scare people into voting Tory 'to save the NHS' and northern Labour voters being scared into voting Tory 'to save Brexit'. It didn't matter that, in a normal world, everyone knows the Tories can't be trusted with the NHS and that Brexit had already happened, the disinformation campaigns worked. The third example targeted constituencies advised by tactical voting websites to vote Labour to oust or keep out Tories: by sending around fake statistics 'proving' people should vote Liberal Democrat, opposition voting became so split that Tories were able to take seats from both Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Some people, including state officials, have also been addressing your question/point about how those displaced by the wildfires may have more trouble voting. It does affect the Presidential election less because most of the highly affected states are blue states.

Links: 'They Have Lost So Much But They Will Not Lose Their Right To Vote.' Advocates Fight To Enfranchise Americans Displaced by Wildfires, Officials: California wildfire survivors have several voting options

Ah, more articles to read. Thank you!

Louisville has a population of 700,000 people.

That's the number you cited before! Thank you. I was a bit out on that one! tongue

The big difference between the UK environment and the US environment is the level of media support for disinformation.

Yes, absolutely. I did mention back in my January/February post that this was the big advantage the US had over the UK.

Edited by Wyldchyld on Oct 17th 2020 at 11:29:52 AM

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and dragon wings for flippers, it's just not worth reading.

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