The General US Politics Thread

A fairly normal president wouldn't just rely on their base of dedicated base of supporters to win reelecton they'd branch out to make themselves more accessible ,and more importantly,they would at least do something positive that would be an argument to relect them,Trump has done none of that,he's stuck fast to appealing to his original voting base and keeps making himself less and less popular

And it's general elections are basically popularity contests on a national scale,and Trump was popular while he was being elected,it's natural to lose a popularity contest if your not popular anymore

Agreed.

Trump winning is unlikely but possible, which is why it's still important to get out the vote. He had a 30% chance of winning in 2016 which a lot of people mistook for "impossible", but everyone rolls a 20 once in a while.

We must do everything in our power to ensure that Trump does not roll 20 in 2020.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Sep 15th 2019 at 6:59:14 AM

Though it's worth remembering that 2016 was before Trump got to screw up the the country for years.

Could he be re-elected? Sure. But it's still a different situation than 2016.

Edited by DrunkenNordmann on Sep 15th 2019 at 4:09:57 PM

I’m still going to mostly operate as an activist under the assumption that he will win, just because I don’t wanna lapse in my efforts (and to be honest, because setting myself up for a potential letdown is horrific for my current mental state)

Hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.

Indeed, and it was against Clinton, a candidate whom I still love but had to deal with decades of Republican propaganda.

A candidate Warren, or Sanders, or ugh Biden, wouldn't have to deal with that.

We shouldn't assume victory but if anyone can be a one-term President it's Trump.

This

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 15th 2019 at 8:03:00 AM

It's also the fact apparently that many Americans really are THAT racist.

A lot will come down to how Trump's approval rating compares to that of his opponent. A ton of people in 2016 disliked both Trump and Clinton, those that voted one way or the other voted overwhelmingly for Trump.

Trump can win at 41% approval if 7% who disprove of him vote for him anyway.

I just hope that, as the election gets closer, that some of the most extreme alt-right Trump Supporters, won't go out and "cull" the democratic portion to "decrease" the amount of democratic potential voters in a sick way to "increase Trump's chances" to win the re-election at the expense of making themselves "martyrs" for "the cause of their beloved leader"...

I'm serious. This mere image have been haunting me more and more as of late...

How big is the risk that this might happen?

Edited by TitanJump on Sep 15th 2019 at 5:37:50 PM

It's worth remembering that a lot of people were giving Trump the benefit of the doubt. They thought that either his behavior on the campaign was an act to get votes and he'd drop the act once he was in office, or else the sheer palpable sense of responsibility from sitting in the Oval Office would sober him up and inspire him to get his act together. Others figured he was a rookie politician and he was learning on the job, so he'd improve over time.

These people very quickly realized that they were wrong. Trump entered office with polls showing him at about 45% approve, 40% disapprove (which is already historically low for a president first entering office, but nevermind that). With a week it became clear that Trump was still Trump (largely due to his blatant lying about his inauguration) and his ratings went underwater, with more disapproving than approving. Within a month, he was at more than 50% disapproval. Since then his numbers have been fairly consistent, with approval in the low 40s and disapproval in the low-mid 50s.

He won the election by the absolute skin of his teeth with a +5% net approval, and that was before anyone knew that the Russians were fighting in his corner, and with Comey putting his thumb on the scale in the last week of the election. Winning with a -10% net approval with people aware of foreign influence campaigns and without a years-in-the-making manufactured scandal to trot out at the critical moment is a very different prospect.

Which doesn't mean it's impossible and we should definitely do everything we can to make sure he loses. But Trump is far from a shoe-in in 2020, and it's important to remember that as well.

Bush got reelected despite screwing up the country, both internally and externally.

Don't write Trump off, it would be a huge mistake.

The risk of that happening is infinitesimally low. Let’s not get into doomsaying territory.

Indeed, and while individual acts of domestic terror would be terrible they would in no way be a new thing.

It's not something worth considering.

& Okay...okay...

Think positive thoughts, that is? Okay.

—-

Also, while speaking of the election... What has been done regarding vote-security since the last election? in general terms and things that hasn't been the GOP undermining the whole process in order to cheat the system in their favor that is.

Has any progress been made in all in order to ensure that the election is safer than the last one? Any at all?

Edited by TitanJump on Sep 15th 2019 at 5:43:49 PM

@Foren, Bush had the post 9/11 rally advantage in his corner, and Iraq hadn't revealed itself as a quagmire by 04.

It’s not even a matter of positive thoughts, just try focusing on reality.

Fantasy scenarios don’t help anyone.

As far as election fraud, “cheating” isn’t really the issue. It’s not like people were hacking into machines and changing votes. The issue is misinformation and disinformation influencing voters, which isn’t something that can be solved with increased security.

Edited by archonspeaks on Sep 15th 2019 at 8:56:56 AM

Democrats made gains in 2018 that should reduce the ability of republicans to rig elections, there remains a risk that Republicans in say Georgia or North Carolina will remove several thousand black people from the voter rolls just before the election, but Georgia and North Carolina aren’t critical to defeating Trump.

Can you share your source for that? I’ve been looking for Trump’s Election Day approval rating (as opposed to his Inauguration Day approval raiting) for ages neo and haven’t been able to find it.

Edited by Silasw on Sep 15th 2019 at 4:14:49 PM

Honestly, the main things I'm concerned about with the 2020 election don't have much to do with Trump himself. He has a pretty low approval rating and is incredibly divisive at best, any decent Democrat should be able to beat him.

What concerns me more are voter suppression measures and russian interference, since those are part of what let Trump win last time.

An unorthdox solution to Russia's meddling is to heavily regulate social media to combat false information and

Region blocking Russia

Edited by Ultimatum on Sep 15th 2019 at 4:26:15 PM

Didn't Ronald Reagan sign legislation that would outlaw Russia forever?

We begin bombing in five minutes.

Finally, we have waited too much for this

Edited by KazuyaProta on Sep 15th 2019 at 11:40:16 AM

Indeed, and something that supports your point further is that even North Carolina has had progress against gerrymandering.

@Forenperser, Rational Insanity: Also, Bush had a lot more charisma than John Kerry, who came across as a wet noodle of a candidate and a prototype of Etch-a-Sketch Romney.

IIRC one major contributor to Trump's 2016 victory is that the total turnout was quite low — somewhere around 50%. If roughly 30% of the total voters chose him despite or because of who and what he is, then it makes sense that he won.

This is almost certainly not going to be the case in 2020, though, because unless people had been exaggerating, the shock from Trump's victory has galvanized a lot of the people who sat out the election out of both voter apathy and not taking Trump's odds of winning seriously, and convinced them to get off their asses and resolve to vote against him in subsequent elections.