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This thread exists to discuss British politics.

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    Original OP 
(I saw Allan mention the lack of one so I thought I'd make one.)

Recent political stuff:

  • The vote to see if Britain should adopt Alternative Voting has failed.
  • Lib Dems lose lots of councils and councillors, whilst Labour make the majority of the gains in England.
  • The Scottish National Party do really well in the elections.

A link to the BBC politics page containing relevant information.

Edited by Mrph1 on Jun 7th 2024 at 4:50:10 PM

Whowho Since: May, 2012
#49651: Jul 2nd 2024 at 12:53:28 AM

Election Calculus are now showing the Tories have some how managed to loose what little projected seats they'd gained from Reform over to Labour.

Current seat projects are

  • LAB between 331 and 510, with 470 expected
  • LIB between 50 and 83, with 71 expected
  • CON between 22 and 157, with 61 expected
  • SNP between 6 and 36, with 15 expected
  • Reform between 5 and 89, with 7 expected
  • Green between 1 and 5, with 3 expected
  • Plaid C between 2 and 5, with 3 expected

Edited by Whowho on Jul 2nd 2024 at 12:57:35 PM

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#49652: Jul 2nd 2024 at 4:15:56 AM

Those are some incredibly wide margins, especially for the Tories and Reform.

Edited by Galadriel on Jul 2nd 2024 at 4:16:32 AM

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#49653: Jul 2nd 2024 at 6:10:12 AM

I assume it's because those two are polling within margin of error of outright winning a ton of seats, which means a little bit of a pollimg miss one way result in them winning a lot of seats but a little bit of polling miss the other way means they lose pretty much all of them.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
annemarisa from Liverpool Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
#49654: Jul 2nd 2024 at 7:03:57 AM

Yes, it's an unusual election due to just how many potential swing seats there are. There are still boring seats (waves from Liverpool) but a much larger proportion of the electorate have votes that matter.

... as a consequence of which the potential for FPTP returning a disproportionate number of seats to votes is greater than usual.

Labour are on course for a massive majority with an unimpressive % of total vote share.

Whowho Since: May, 2012
#49655: Jul 2nd 2024 at 11:38:23 AM

In in the process of moving house, so I have two constituencies to choose from, and they're both projected to be vastly safe for Labour.

My metamour though is on a seat that's projected 48/52% probability split of Conservative or Labour so her vote massively counts.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#49656: Jul 2nd 2024 at 3:39:09 PM

My seat's moved to solidly predicted Labour from SNP. Like, 83% labour prediction.

Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#49657: Jul 2nd 2024 at 3:47:56 PM

[up][up][up] That’s what happens when the other side spilts the vote, and the Conservatives and Reform seem to have the right-wing vote split almost 50-50

dcutter2 Since: Sep, 2013
#49658: Jul 4th 2024 at 1:01:53 AM

Well today's the day. Get your vote on folks!

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#49659: Jul 4th 2024 at 3:39:40 AM

I’ve been out since around 6am, it’s gonna be a long day. I’ll try and post a little from the count when I get time.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#49660: Jul 4th 2024 at 3:41:01 AM

Went over and voted about an hour ago, only took a minute.

merklyn Since: Feb, 2011
#49661: Jul 4th 2024 at 4:36:54 AM

Did it couple of hours ago, just anecdotal but a couple of friends working the polls in different areas are saying they're having far more turnout this year compared to the last General one.

Edited by merklyn on Jul 4th 2024 at 4:37:25 AM

king15 Have Faun Since: Mar, 2024
Have Faun
#49662: Jul 4th 2024 at 5:01:29 AM

I would have thought there would be less? Larger turnout it better, so good to hear it's (at least anecdotally) larger.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#49663: Jul 4th 2024 at 5:15:12 AM

Depends on who votes, mind you. It's not always the case that left-wing voters are the low-turnout ones.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
EruditeEsotericist Since: May, 2015
#49664: Jul 4th 2024 at 5:21:22 AM

Tories delenda est!

Ultimately voted by conscience rather than tactically...don't think either candidate I'd like to see win will do so, so went with the one with least chance but who I like best (Green Party).

Ultimatum Disasturbator from The Wiggle Room (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#49665: Jul 4th 2024 at 6:35:11 AM

I need to remember to vote today!

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Mullon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: And here's to you, Mrs. Robinson
#49666: Jul 4th 2024 at 6:39:30 AM

The only candidate I've paid any attention to is Count Binface, so I guess I want him to win whatever he's running for.

Never trust anyone who uses "degenerate" as an insult.
Mrph1 he/him from Mercia (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: This is not my beautiful wife!
he/him
#49667: Jul 4th 2024 at 6:40:49 AM

[up] Richmond and Northallerton. He's directly running against Sunak.

Khudzlin Since: Nov, 2013
#49668: Jul 4th 2024 at 6:45:43 AM

Interesting that you also get increased turnout compared to the previous election.

EruditeEsotericist Since: May, 2015
#49669: Jul 4th 2024 at 6:54:38 AM

[up] The timing helps. Summer weather always brings more turnout than winter.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#49670: Jul 4th 2024 at 7:02:35 AM

The fact that it’s light when the polls open at 7am and light when people get back from work (or possibly even at 10pm when the polls close) with have a major turnout impact.

There’s a solid argument for Brexit having only happened because it rained on referendum day and drove turnout down.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Ultimatum Disasturbator from The Wiggle Room (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#49671: Jul 4th 2024 at 7:08:51 AM

> There’s a solid argument for Brexit having only happened because it rained on referendum day and drove turnout down.

which is a solid argument for postal voting or electronic voting

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#49672: Jul 4th 2024 at 7:15:06 AM

I wouldn't say there's a solid argument for electronic voting ever.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#49673: Jul 4th 2024 at 7:16:51 AM

Combined postal/electronic voting (where you are posted the details you need to do your vote through a website) isn’t the worst, it’s used by all the big parties for their leadership elections, frustratingly trade unions are banned from using it for strike ballots.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Khudzlin Since: Nov, 2013
#49674: Jul 4th 2024 at 7:22:54 AM

The timing helps. Summer weather always brings more turnout than winter.

Now that you mention it, I see we tend to hold elections between March and June south of the Channel. The current one stands out for how short the notice for it was (pretty much the legal minimum of 20 days), possibly so it wouldn't be held during the summer school holidays (since many people go on vacation during that time, it would very probably depress turnout).

Edited by Khudzlin on Jul 4th 2024 at 7:24:28 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#49675: Jul 4th 2024 at 7:26:29 AM

[up][up] But it introduces central points of failure for an entire election and, of course, presents such an inviting target.

"One security breach would let a foreign actor pick the election outcome" is exactly why I'd rather stick to paper, thanks.


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