I wonder how many of those 200 arrested people are actual members of the MB and not just ordinary people who became MB sympathizers after the coup and/or massacres.
Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.The way I see it:
For all I despise the new regime, I can't bring myself to actually sympathize with the Muslim Brotherhood. I sympathize with Egypt; given it has a choice between "fascists with uniforms and fascists with Qu'rans", which is no choice at all. I sympathize with the murdered protesters, because they were exercising a basic human right and were murdered by representatives of the state. But the Muslim Brotherhood was a terrible movement. It fought UN initiatives against violence against women. It argued that calls for the recognition of women's dignity as human beings were Western plots to return Egypt to a pre-Islamic statenote . It's constitution was in many respects an abomination. They failed to undertake the duty of a government to protect the rights of minorities (disgracefully, it was to a great extent right-wing news sources in the West who documented the plight of Egypt's Christians
).
But they did not destroy democracy. They permitted internal opposition and they did not entirely suspend civil liberties. Ultimately, what we have seen in the last few months is a military crackdown. The military government has carried out a coup. They have usurped a democratically elected - in a real election - government, the only one in Egypt's history. They have sent tanks and soldiers into the streets - where they have no business - in order to attack people exercising their right to protest. The Muslim Brotherhood, bad as they were, did not oversee such an authoritarian crackdown. They did not arrest the leaders of the secular opposition, and they did not slaughter the protesters of Tahrir. They were very grey, but the military is blacker than black.
It is semi-possible that the military will uphold its new promises to hold new elections in spring. They may even permit Muslim Brothers to win them. But any subsequent government - the "secular liberals" or the MB - will know and fear the power of the military. The Egyptian people may yet govern themselves, but they will do so with a gun to their head. But frankly, I think the new elections will more likely follow the Iranian, Chinese, and Burmese pattern: you can vote for whoever you want, so long as it is one of these picked and vetted candidates who are champions of the military-ideological oligarchy.
What can be done, is for the USA and EU to call a coup a coup and suspend aid. It's a pretty grim state of affairs when Egyptian democracy's best friend in the West is John McCain
.
edited 7th Oct '13 5:39:22 AM by Achaemenid
Schild und Schwert der ParteiI'd think that'd depend on whether Egypt could get other countries on its side, and whether the US or others would go all the way for Israel.
Egypt alone vs Israel alone would be a conflict the winner of which would be hard to predict.
Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.I'm not sure Egypt is capable of defeating Israel militarily. Bear in mind the Israelis hold all the advantages; they have little chance of being take by surprise, they are defending, and the Egyptian military's most modern systems are American, and thus their capabilities will be well known to Israel's most likely ally.
Even if the United States didn't go the distance for Israel, it still seems likely that it would halt military exports to Egypt, thus making Egyptian resupply very hard. Egypt would likely have a hostile populace too, the military is already resented for its gangsterism and repression; dragging the country into a war with Israel is not likely to make them more so.
This isn't to say that war with Israel should be risked - it should be avoided in all circumstances - but it seems fairly likely that Israel would win any such war.
Schild und Schwert der ParteiYemen could be close to reaching a consensus on the southern issue
.
Apart from that, not much. Negotiations were in a stalemate, so the conclusions remain to be seen.
The military has always been rather popular in Egypt, as it is in Turkey. I agree with Achaemenid, the MB were terrible at governing, and were not really trying to promote true democracy in good faith, but they didn't shoot people in the street, either. The secular left is divided (no big surprise) between a faction who dislike the MB more than the military and a faction who dislike the military more than the MB. The latter are probably more numerous (remember that the rank and file military actually backed the protesters several times in 2011).
I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.

I wonder how many of those MB members actually did anything wrong.
Well, obviously there's also the (possibly unrelated) question of whether those who were killed had done anything wrong...
Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.