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Nohbody "In distress", my ass. from Somewhere in Dixie Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Mu
"In distress", my ass.
#17951: Sep 20th 2013 at 12:09:39 AM

BBC: The Syrian government has declared the conflict a stalemate and will now be amenable to a ceasefire and talks.

76th Rule of Acquisition: Every once in a while, declare peace. It confuses the hell out of your enemies.

tongue

More seriously, what does Assad really have to lose with this offer? At the very least, the odds of all members of the opposition accepting it are somewhat south of "snowball's chance in hell", so when they ultimately say "screw that" he comes out as the reasonable one and they're the uncooperative assholes.note 

edited 20th Sep '13 12:11:00 AM by Nohbody

All your safe space are belong to Trump
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#17952: Sep 20th 2013 at 12:31:41 AM

[up]Seriously. Also gives him time to reorganize and rearm without an active war to deplete him so quickly.

betaalpha betaalpha from England Since: Jan, 2001
betaalpha
#17953: Sep 20th 2013 at 2:22:39 AM

[up]Should be noted that it also gives the rebels time to reorganise and rearm. In fact, given how disorganised and harried they are and the weapons they are receiving gradually over time, a breather might be even more useful for them. Although the Islamist groups can also use that time to consolidate their control, sadly.

I find it hard to believe Assad would accept any condition where he wasn't in control, or his Alawite supporters would accept any condition where they don't continue to have overall power. They believe it's a matter of survival to them.

edited 20th Sep '13 2:24:40 AM by betaalpha

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#17954: Sep 20th 2013 at 2:32:06 AM

Assuming the rebels don't kill each other. Or even respect a ceasefire. Assad has organization on his side already, this just makes it more for him. The rebels need it more than he does.

And Western powers are liking the rebels less and less.

demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#17955: Sep 20th 2013 at 8:42:52 AM

The Syrian govt is claiming that it will declare a cease-fire if talks are resumed in Geneva. If that actually happens, it's fairly significant. By conceding that they dont believe they can defeat the rebels, they are effectively giving up their claim to rebel held territory. That's a pretty significant propaganda defeat.

Something has happened behind the scenes in Damascus.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#17956: Sep 20th 2013 at 9:27:35 AM

There's simply a point beyond which a regime has lost legitimacy and can never really re-obtain it. Brutality works to actively stop revolts before you've passed that threshold, but afterwards force only works in its most direct and naked form, in that you're just going to have to keep shooting until everyone who disagrees with you is dead or you are out of power. Syria has reached the latter phase, and Assad is smart enough to know it, and to also take advantage of the huge amount of doubt and dissension amongst the international community to buy a peace that won't see him end up like Qaddafi

soban Since: Aug, 2009 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
#17957: Sep 20th 2013 at 9:30:33 AM

Once you have reached that point you goal should be to escape from power with as much money and as long of a lifespan as possible. Argentina perhaps?

edited 20th Sep '13 9:30:48 AM by soban

tricksterson Never Trust from Behind you with an icepick Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
Never Trust
#17958: Sep 20th 2013 at 9:37:00 AM

I think Assad is doing this because yes, he has the upper hand, but not by much, so he's going for a compromise and hoping to further split his opposition when some of them go for negotiations and some, namely the Islamists continue to fight.

Trump delenda est
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#17959: Sep 20th 2013 at 10:13:39 AM

[up][up]Argentina is a liberal democracy these days, even if their president is kinda crazy. More likely escape places are Russia, Venezuela or Iran.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#17960: Sep 20th 2013 at 10:27:01 AM

I wonder. The statement at the BBC didnt have Assads name on it. The spokesperson from Syria claimed to be representing the "Government". Has Assad unofficially been shunted aside? Are there factions within the regime that have concluded that he has failed so badly its time to cut their losses? I'm just speculating here, but it will be interesting to see of the regime is serious about starting talks again.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#17961: Sep 20th 2013 at 10:39:04 AM

[up][up][up] Agreed, though that might come back to bite him. By having the Islamists split off, it becomes easier for the world to determine who can do a deal and who can't, and thus tells them who they can support.

[up]Bashar al Assad actually has very little in the way of personal power, to the point where he's always been considered more of a front man. However, the deputy PM doesn't even have the illusion of power, so I'd imagine he has consent from The Powers That Be. Probably the elders, since I doubt Maher would want to stop, bloodthirsty dog that he is.

It certainly ain't cuz Bashar failed though. Guy is being seen as a right genius by his supporters. That and this being an existential conflict, they can't cut losses.

Seriously, I wanna trope this conflict....

edited 20th Sep '13 10:40:14 AM by FFShinra

demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#17962: Sep 20th 2013 at 10:48:10 AM

"Guy is being seen as a right genius by his supporters."

Got a link for that? I'm not questioning it, I just want to know more.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#17963: Sep 20th 2013 at 10:51:51 AM

No specific link. Just what I've been seeing in article comments and such. And I grant that its not the best method to determine anything, but even his enemies (in the form of the GOP and other Obama critics) are painting Assad as Machiavelli reincarnated, so that helps with perception and propaganda. No way the regime gets rid of that kind of good publicity, especially when they do hold the momentum on the battlefield.

demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#17964: Sep 20th 2013 at 10:55:08 AM

I dont know. A lot of what you mentioned seems like old fashioned propaganda to me- it's been relatively effective up to now, but it probably doesnt reflect any sort of reality behind the scenes. By sitting down with the rebels, they are in fact risking all that. They must be in more desperate straights than has been reported if they want a ceasefire so badly...

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Quag15 Since: Mar, 2012
#17965: Sep 20th 2013 at 11:14:32 AM

Assad as Machiavelli reincarnated

Putin is Machiavelli. Assad is still his student, in a way.

Tensions are brewing between southerners and the central government in Yemen.

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#17966: Sep 20th 2013 at 12:10:48 PM

[up][up] It's not true in the sense they "love" him. They know full well what kind of monster he is. They just fear the other guys more. They won't sideline him when he's still useful for propaganda purposes.

[up]Aye, thanks. Seems AQAP is on the move there too. From Reuters

TuefelHundenIV Night Clerk of the Apocalypse from Doomsday Facility Corner Store. Since: Aug, 2009 Relationship Status: I'd need a PowerPoint presentation
Night Clerk of the Apocalypse
#17967: Sep 20th 2013 at 4:17:09 PM

I have seen this elsewhere as well Syrian rebels turning on each other. The Big tent is collapsing.

Assad likely knows this and could very likely sitting back and letting the rebels tear each other up with plans to whack the loser. Or even maybe "assist" one side over the other win them over to his side. Who knows.

Of course Assad could also think like this. "The enemy of my enemy is my enemy's enemy. No more. No less."

edited 20th Sep '13 4:33:08 PM by TuefelHundenIV

Who watches the watchmen?
BestOf FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC! from Finland Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: Falling within your bell curve
FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC!
#17968: Sep 20th 2013 at 4:26:23 PM

There was something on the BBC recently about some border towns having been captured by the Islamist opposition - from the secular opposition.

This is unsustainable. Well, war is unsustainable to begin with, but the stalemate is also unsustainable now that one side is self-destructing.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#17969: Sep 20th 2013 at 4:51:13 PM

Not an expert, but the Jihadis have never impressed me with their long-term strategic thinking. They always seem to be 'Smite the unbeliever, and damn the consequences'.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
BestOf FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC! from Finland Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: Falling within your bell curve
FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC!
#17970: Sep 20th 2013 at 4:59:35 PM

I have to agree. For instance, when I read about what Aum Shinrikyo were able to do in Tokyo in 1995 after some (relatively) careful preparation, I couldn't help wondering if the time and resources they spent were more or less than the total that a large terrorist organisation spends annually on suicide attacks and car bombs.

If maintaining a steady campaign of small-scale bombing is more expensive than something like the Sarin attack in the Tokyo Metro in 1995 the question a terrorist organisation should be asking itself is whether its goals would be better served by something more elaborate than a car bomb. The point is to make the enemy (and the neutrals) afraid, and I can tell you that the Tokyo subway attack, though I don't remember it, has me much more scared than, say, 9/11. (The latter resulted in a far larger number of casualties but the potential in the Tokyo subway attack was vast and only avoided because of the poor execution of the otherwise rather well-laid plan.)

But this is getting off-topic (and into a territory I don't particularly want to explore.)

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#17971: Sep 20th 2013 at 5:37:59 PM

You have a strange way of thinking about these things, Best, and I mean that in the most respectful way.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
TuefelHundenIV Night Clerk of the Apocalypse from Doomsday Facility Corner Store. Since: Aug, 2009 Relationship Status: I'd need a PowerPoint presentation
Night Clerk of the Apocalypse
#17972: Sep 20th 2013 at 6:42:56 PM

Best Of: Well the Tokyo attack had something in common with the extremist terrorist groups. The materials used are not always the best quality. The chemical agent wasn't refined enough and was therefore less effective then it could have been. There were actually two chemical weapon attack.

But you do make a good point about the use of resources.

Who watches the watchmen?
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#17973: Sep 20th 2013 at 6:42:57 PM

Depends on the flavor of the Jihadi. That's certainly the Talibanesque mindset, but other groups (particularly the original AQ) have shown that they think for the long term. For example, getting the US bogged down in the middle east as a way to hurt their economy was the ultimate aim of 9/11, rather than the act itself.

Anyway, curious how long it takes for the actual ceasefire plan to get ready, since I doubt anyone is gonna put down their guns yet.

MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#17974: Sep 20th 2013 at 7:42:40 PM

They always seem to be 'Smite the unbeliever, and damn the consequences'.
You'd think they'd be smart enough to prioritize smiting the bigger, much more dangerous, and much more obvious unbelievers than the ones who both share a common cause and a common enemy with them, aren't so much unbelievers than believers-with-low-piety, and are nominally willing to tolerate their (the Jihadis') existence and allow them participation in the political process if they act nice and play by the rules.

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#17975: Sep 21st 2013 at 12:00:44 AM

Okay so that Deputy PM who said the conflict was in stalemate? He's saying now that the Guardian misquoted him.

.....which is entirely possible. But obviously, and more likely, the regime was displeased.

It's mentioned in brief in this BBC article, which is more focused on the rebel infighting. [1]


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