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Ultrayellow Unchanging Avatar. Since: Dec, 2010
Unchanging Avatar.
#11251: Mar 19th 2012 at 9:03:52 PM

Why should you decide what's "worse" for the people of Syria? With people dying by the minute, you're willing to support Assad's regime because of your fear of civil war afterwards? It isn't going to get worse, especially since we don't even need boots on the ground to topple Assad. How can an interim Syrian government be worse? Look at Libya. Isolationism to this point seems to me to be nothing more than a lack of empathy. It's one thing to want the rebels to work together, but that's not a justification for supporting the current regime.

It's so easy to think you know what's best for the people of Syria from a safe little bubble. What do you think they want?

Except for 4/1/2011. That day lingers in my memory like...metaphor here...I should go.
johnnyfog Actual Wrestling Legend from the Zocalo Since: Apr, 2010 Relationship Status: They can't hide forever. We've got satellites.
Actual Wrestling Legend
#11252: Mar 19th 2012 at 9:13:21 PM

Oh, I love that. Turning the argument around so it's arrogance not to presume we know how to enforce decency.

I'm a skeptical squirrel
SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
Show an affirming flame
#11253: Mar 19th 2012 at 9:26:44 PM

You're wrong about things being unable to get any worse—and about not needing boots on the ground to topple Assad.

For one, there isn't all-out sectarian slaughter going on at the moment. Right now, Assad has maneuvered things so that his party can portray itself as the protector of Syria's minorities—and those minorities believe him. Assad has disproportionately promoted fellow Alawites into positions of power, and now those Alawites fear that if their protector were to fall, they'll all be purged or executed along with him. And the damned thing is, they might actually be right. There's a lot of sectarian resentment bubbling under the surface. Unless the opposition unifies and promises that it will clamp down on any anti-Alawite actions, and even then, Assad's core power bloc will remain intact.

That's how Syria is different from Libya: there are still very significant portions of the population who support Assad. The Syrian Army is suffering from manpower drain due to defections, but it's not anywhere near the rate that the Libyan army suffered, too; it'd be tempting to compare Syria to Libya, but it'd be inaccurate.

As for Assad, the bastard's grip on power is still relatively secure. Sending arms to the rebels is a popular suggestion, but if and only if you're willing to support a drawn-out proxy conflict against the Syrian regime and its supporters in Tehran, and possibly Moscow as well. It will be very messy; think the Contras versus the Sandinistas. It will almost certainly encourage factionalization between the different rebel groups, as some will receive arms from the US, some from the Gulf Council, some from other groups. Think Afghanistan versus the Soviets: all arms had to pass through Pakistan, so that the most influential, most successful groups ended up being Pakistani proxies: the Haqqanis spring to mind. And it will be a certainty that the goals of the West, the Gulf states, and the rebels won't all line up.

So: if you're for sending arms to Syria, you're willing to accept the possibility of sustaining a drawn-out, potentially all-versus-all civil war that might still get quashed by the Assad regime. That kind of decision is not one to be taken lightly, any more than the other decisions.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
GameGuruGG Vampire Hunter from Castlevania (Before Recorded History)
Vampire Hunter
#11254: Mar 19th 2012 at 11:20:09 PM

In addition, while Assad is sick and needs to be toppled, who is to say the various opposition groups won't fight among themselves for control of Syria after he is toppled? Yeah, Assad is horrible, but Syria still could be worse.

If the opposition unites, then there will at least be a stable regime after Assad is toppled.

edited 19th Mar '12 11:21:31 PM by GameGuruGG

Wizard Needs Food Badly
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#11255: Mar 20th 2012 at 12:33:57 AM

@Ultrayellow If you want to see what the posters above me have described so eloquently, I suggest you read up on the Lebanese civil war, as Lebanon - not Libya - is Syria's closest analog in terms of demographics, history, etc.

SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
Show an affirming flame
#11256: Mar 20th 2012 at 1:40:34 AM

In the meanwhile, this looks like a very clever way to put the pressure on Russia and China. It's indirect economics: traditionally, when a new government replaces the old one via revolution, it assumes the old government's debts and contracts; no point pissing off the companies that still have investments in your country.

Basically, in addition to trade sanctions, the international community declares that all contracts signed with the Assad regime are null and void. Let's say Assad borrows $500mil to buy weapons, only to get kicked out and replaced. What this new economic ruling does would be to say to the new government, "you don't have to pay back the $500mil debt Assad incurred; you're free to start on a blank slate."

Now think of what this means from the eyes of a Russian arms manufacturer or a Chinese oil importer. Suddenly investment in Syria looks like an extremely risky option; after all, if it falls, the new government may not feel inclined to give you your money back, and they'll have international opinion on their side. Suddenly, instead of accepting credit for that shipload of artillery shells, you'll be demanding cash up front.

And firms that are thinking of signing deals with the Assad regime now (expecting them to be honored later on) would have considerable difficulty enforcing a contract declared illegitimate in major financial centers.

So: not a silver-bullet solution; it's not going to immediately turn things around in Syria. But it represents a very interesting way of tightening the economic noose around Assad—and perhaps, just perhaps, the Russians and the Chinese might be forced to play ball, too. They don't care if Syria is a murderous autocracy, but they do care if they risk losing their money on their investments in-country.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#11257: Mar 20th 2012 at 11:13:22 AM

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/03/20/world/meast/yemen-saleh-threats/index.html

Saleh, in his capacity as party president of the General People's Congress (the ruling party), is trying to become a parallel ruler as previously predicted. Thankfully, President Hadi himself seems to have a mind of his own. But expect more shenanigans from Yemen.

And the Russians are on board with the new UN resolution on Syria, provided Assad isn't given an ultimatum, according to the NYT.

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#11258: Mar 20th 2012 at 11:32:11 AM

@Sabre: Unfortunately, it also means that the Russians have a stronger incentive than ever to help prevent the rebellion from succeeding in the first place.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
GameChainsaw The Shadows Devour You. from sunshine and rainbows! Since: Oct, 2010
MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#11260: Mar 20th 2012 at 12:36:31 PM

Syria has their only port in the Mediterreanean, is effectively Russia's local bulldog to some extent versus the US-aligned Israel, and to a lesser degree of important, the Assad regime is the #1 client for Russian military products in the Middle East (in the narrow sense of "Middle East", that is).

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
Nohbody "In distress", my ass. from Somewhere in Dixie Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Mu
"In distress", my ass.
#11261: Mar 20th 2012 at 3:09:04 PM

I don't know how much weight I'd put on it, but "stick a thumb in the west's eye" is probably also somewhere on Putin's list of reasons to support Assad.

All your safe space are belong to Trump
SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
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#11262: Mar 20th 2012 at 10:10:39 PM

Very likely. It also increases their leverage in Tehran, since Syria is about the only friend Iran has in the area (discounting Hezbollah, which is practically run by the IRGC). That, by the way, is also the primary reason the Gulf states are lining up to donate weapons to the rebels: if they can draw the IRGC/Qods Force into a long proxy war where the Iranian groups are on the wrong side of popular support, they can attrit Iran's irregular-warfare groups and indirectly hurt Iran itself.

EDIT: Evidently Russia's changing its tone a little. Whether or not this means anything concrete is unknown.

edited 20th Mar '12 10:27:05 PM by SabresEdge

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#11263: Mar 21st 2012 at 2:37:23 PM

"Unspecified further steps" Whoa.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#11264: Mar 21st 2012 at 2:58:57 PM

Hasn't been reported here yet, but G-man's former intelligence chief was caught in Mauritania. There are negotiating now for extradiction.

BestOf FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC! from Finland Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: Falling within your bell curve
FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC!
#11265: Mar 21st 2012 at 3:17:12 PM

It's been in the news for days. Are you sure we haven't talked about it yet? 'Cause I seem to recall that we did talk about a little bit, including a reference to how there are many countries/courts that want to try him.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.
MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
BestOf FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC! from Finland Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: Falling within your bell curve
FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC!
#11267: Mar 21st 2012 at 4:32:35 PM

From the article linked in the post above his:

In a statement approved by all its 15 members, the [UN Security] council threatened Syria with unspecified "further steps" if it failed to comply with Annan's peace plan, which calls for a ceasefire and demands swift access for aid agencies.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#11268: Mar 21st 2012 at 8:06:15 PM

@Best Of- We've all been focused on Syria the last couple of days.

BestOf FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC! from Finland Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: Falling within your bell curve
FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC!
#11269: Mar 22nd 2012 at 3:36:38 AM

This post, from the previous page of this thread, is the one I was recalling when I made my post. It was posted Monday.

EDIT: I went over several more pages and it seems that aside from that post, we haven't really talked about this here. Must've been some other place where I've been talking about it and I might have just associated that conversation with this thread because normally it would've been mentioned here, too.

edited 22nd Mar '12 3:41:57 AM by BestOf

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#11270: Mar 22nd 2012 at 2:02:58 PM

Thread Dump:

An open letter from Human Rights watch to the Syrian opposition. "We are writing to express our concern about increasing evidence, as described below, of kidnappings, the use of torture, and executions by armed Syrian opposition members and strongly urge you to work to ensure that all opposition members refrain from engaging in these unlawful practices."

This is an interesting analysis of how the Egyptian transition to democracy is going and what is likely to happen next (the author is cautiously optimistic).

Apparently the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia has declared that all churches within that country should be destroyed. "The declaration of Saudi Arabia's Grand Mufti Abd al-Aziz b. Abdullah that all churches in the Arabian Peninsula should be destroyed is getting some attention. I first saw this a few days ago at Crossroads Arabia and thought little of it. Saying offensive and somewhat crazy extreme things is practically the job description for the head of that country's religious establishment, which fears the moral collapse of society if women start driving cars."

And here is an interesting article by a prominent Islamic scholar claiming that Arabian Salafism is a tool of the West (he makes a number of good points). "The United States as well as the European countries have no problem in dealing with the type of Islamism promoted by the literalist Salafism found in some Muslim countries: these regimes might oppose democracy and pluralism, but they do not hinder the western economic and geostrategic interests in the region and internationally. They even rely on western support to survive: this useful dependency is enough for the West to justify an objective alliance — with or without democracy."

And this is an interesting analysis of how complex the Islamic movement in Egypt has become. "However, while many are preoccupied by the "rise" of the Muslim Brothers and the ultra-conservative Salafis, "informal" Islamists are stepping into politics vigorously and freely. They are not officially affiliated with any Islamist movement. Nor are they keen to establish their own organizations. Ironically, they shunned joining any of the new Islamists parties. Moreover, whereas "formal" Islamists, for example, the MB, ad-Dawa al-Salafiyya, and ex-Jihadists, rushed to formal politics, "informal" Islamists prefer to play outside the official framework. They vividly operate in the new and expansive religious market that has flourished in Egypt since the revolution."

And finally, President Obama is apparently pressuring Yemen to keep a journalist imprisoned: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/15/abdulelah-haider-shaye-yemen-journalist_n_1348354.html http://www.thenation.com/article/166757/why-president-obama-keeping-journalist-prison-yemen

edited 22nd Mar '12 2:04:17 PM by DeMarquis

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
RadicalTaoist scratching at .8, just hopin' from the #GUniverse Since: Jan, 2001
scratching at .8, just hopin'
#11271: Mar 22nd 2012 at 4:21:40 PM

The U.S.-supported imprisonment of that journalist is disgusting. Obama is either misinformed, or Shaye was uncovering something that looked REALLY bad.

Share it so that people can get into this conversation, 'cause we're not the only ones who think like this.
MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#11272: Mar 22nd 2012 at 5:13:22 PM

Well, he did basically manage to contact and personally interview people that the US is/was having a lot of trouble merely tracking down for arrest/killing (his wife is related to one prominent extreme-Islamist figure), with said interviews involving pretty much objective questions, and his journalistic criticism aimed at both sides of the War on Terror; and he exposed that an ostensible attack by Yemeni forces on an AQAP cell was actually made by US forces (evidence being US-made missiles and such left at the site of the attacks), and that only the dead bodies of dozens of women and children were at the site of the attacks, with no provable trace of any militants having even been there. So basically, the US government lost a lot of face due to his honest journalism and smart use of contacts.

edited 22nd Mar '12 5:14:42 PM by MarqFJA

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
Colonial1.1 Purveyor of Obscurity from The Marvelous River City (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Purveyor of Obscurity
#11273: Mar 22nd 2012 at 5:31:01 PM

Is that prison safe?

"He could not know it. For it was not all a joke."
MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
stripesthezebra Since: Dec, 2011

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