TVTropes Now available in the app store!
Open

Follow TV Tropes

Following

The Arab Spring

Go To

MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#11226: Mar 15th 2012 at 3:15:31 PM

Yeah, the FSA appears to be generally retreating on the northern fronts, one stronghold at a time... unless they're trying to ultimately trick the regime forces into overconfidently walking straight into a trap that would deal a very decisive/crippling blow to both their fighting power and general troop morale.

@Octo: Avatar source?

edited 15th Mar '12 3:16:03 PM by MarqFJA

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#11227: Mar 15th 2012 at 3:27:26 PM

Turkish Intelligence states that 20,000 soldiers have deserted the Syrian Army in the last month.

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#11228: Mar 15th 2012 at 3:42:15 PM

I have no sources, but the pattern is clear enough... the FSA is retreating inch by inch, and going guerrilla as they go...

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
kyfhv Since: Aug, 2011
#11229: Mar 15th 2012 at 3:45:09 PM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-syria/2012/03/12/gIQAvgiiES_story.html

Five myths about Syria

1. President Bashar al-Assad’s departure would end the violence.

International efforts to stop the violence in Syria have focused on forcing Assad to step down. But even if he did, there would be no change in the government’s policy of crushing the Free Syrian Army’s activities and demonstrations with force.

Surrounding the president is a tightly knit group of military and security officials, mostly from the Alawite minority, who have grown enormously wealthy over the past two to three decades, beginning under the rule of Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad. In regime circles, especially among the older men who were close associates of his father, Bashar al-Assad is seen as a figurehead with some credibility among parts of the Syrian population. But he is easily replaceable by someone much tougher and even more committed to repression and facing down international condemnation.

...

There have been a couple IED attacks in Idlib. Of course, I can't prove these were from Syria, so take them with a grain of salt.

edited 16th Mar '12 1:40:32 PM by kyfhv

MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#11230: Mar 15th 2012 at 4:01:30 PM

In other words, you shouldn't treat an oligarchy as if it's an autocracy.

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
Show an affirming flame
#11231: Mar 15th 2012 at 4:09:57 PM

Oyah. That much was clear from the start; Assad still has plenty of supporters from the Alawites he recruited from. Unlike Gaddafi he's still got a substantial proportion of the population on his side.

Barring an absolute victory by the Syrian Army forces, I foresee a long, smoldering insurgency.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
Colonial1.1 Purveyor of Obscurity from The Marvelous River City (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Purveyor of Obscurity
#11232: Mar 15th 2012 at 4:44:49 PM

Therefore, the SFA are nowhere near total defeat.

"He could not know it. For it was not all a joke."
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#11233: Mar 15th 2012 at 4:56:00 PM

Fear of becoming another Lebanon (along with the Arab Spring wave having now crested and started to fall), I wager Assad will survive. Because other than Syria, there is post-revolution instability in everywhere but Tunisia, but thats not nearly as sexy as the revolution itself. So coverage will fall away and things will go back to about normal in Syria.

Really, all this will prove is that Bashar is no better than Hafez.

edited 15th Mar '12 4:57:22 PM by FFShinra

Octo Prince of Dorne from Germany Since: Mar, 2011
Prince of Dorne
#11234: Mar 16th 2012 at 7:33:30 AM

I really thought this would turn into a Libya when the FSA shortly held those Damascus suburbs sad But well, there's only so much Qatarian guns can do, eh?

Marq: It's the album cover of "Sleeping with Ghosts" by Placebo.

edited 16th Mar '12 7:33:50 AM by Octo

Unbent, Unbowed, Unbroken. Unrelated ME1 Fanfic
MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#11236: Mar 16th 2012 at 12:42:12 PM

The article mispells Algeria's name... and the result is a word that is very similar to the Arabic word for this.

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
fanty Since: Dec, 2009
#11237: Mar 18th 2012 at 4:23:17 AM

...

Edited by fanty on Sep 28th 2019 at 2:10:17 PM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#11238: Mar 18th 2012 at 7:40:59 PM

Some news.

Fire fights in the Syrian capital. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17425062

In Libya two British journalists who were arrested have been released. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17424831

And everyone and their mother wants Gadaffi's old intelligence chief who has been arrested in Mauritania. The Libyan's want him for obvious reasons, the French want him in connection with a bomb attack on a plane and the ICC wants him as well. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17419575

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
Show an affirming flame
#11239: Mar 19th 2012 at 3:00:04 PM

Uh-oh. I find it unlikely that those Naval Infantry are actually going to do any fighting, but it's a clear sign that Russia's throwing its lot in with Assad.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#11240: Mar 19th 2012 at 3:09:32 PM

.... So, suppose that some of the anti-Assad forces decide that they've enough of the Russians' bullshit, and actually attack these Russian units? What are the most likely outcomes of such a debacle?

edited 19th Mar '12 3:09:59 PM by MarqFJA

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
Show an affirming flame
#11241: Mar 19th 2012 at 3:13:34 PM

If the Russians come in under direct attack, two responses are possible. Option One, they decide Syria's not worth it and withdraw. If you look at the Russians' track record, though, this is very unlikely. Option Two, full-scale escalation and intervention, with the added message of "keep the hell out, Westerners, this is our business." That would entail burning a lot of bridges to the West, but given Putin's hypernationalism I could see it happening.

Before either case, though, I think Russia will try to keep this low-key. They may be gambling on the perception that the rebels won't be strong enough to attack in a powerful enough manner that will force Russia to make that decision.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#11242: Mar 19th 2012 at 3:29:24 PM

Russia has contacts with the various rebels y'know.

I honestly think, considering the likely outcome of what would happen with a potential collapse of the Baathist regime, that Russia has the right idea. If it was a simple change of the guard, I could see Russia simply calling up the rebel leadership and simply getting them to promise they'll honor any deals made by the previous government. It's far easier and more profitable. The problem, of course, lies in their being no unified rebel leadership, nor a simple change of the guard.

I get that its easy to villify Putin, especially in lieu of Russia's support for the regime and the attrocities it commits, but Syria is not Libya. It will take a strong military force occupying the nation for years to really sort out the mess in Syria. The US and the West isn't willing (or really even able) to do it.

We can be as indignant to Assad as is necessary, but until we can find a viable solution, I'm not sure we're in any position to call Russia out.

BestOf FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC! from Finland Since: Oct, 2010 Relationship Status: Falling within your bell curve
FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC!
#11243: Mar 19th 2012 at 3:33:14 PM

Russia recently backed a Red Cross proposal to have two hours of ceasefire each day to alleviate the damage to civilians.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.
MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#11244: Mar 19th 2012 at 3:37:38 PM

Yeah, that was mentioned in the previously linked article. One point for them, at least.

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
Ultrayellow Unchanging Avatar. Since: Dec, 2010
Unchanging Avatar.
#11245: Mar 19th 2012 at 5:40:16 PM

Ceasefire to alleviate the damage to citizens?

You're kidding me.

Assad's forces are killing citizens. It's not collateral, it's not citizens getting caught in the crossfire, the actual goal is to kill citizens of Syria until the urban areas are pacified by force.

I have nothing but contempt for the offer of two hours ceasefire. Why don't you back a proposal to stop slaughtering innocent people, Russia? Until then, Russia's government and people disgust me. At least the Chinese live under an actual authoritarian regime. Russia's still technically a democracy, illiberal or not. The Russian people know exactly what's going on, and yet nobody calls out Putin's government.

edited 19th Mar '12 5:40:48 PM by Ultrayellow

Except for 4/1/2011. That day lingers in my memory like...metaphor here...I should go.
johnnyfog Actual Wrestling Legend from the Zocalo Since: Apr, 2010 Relationship Status: They can't hide forever. We've got satellites.
Actual Wrestling Legend
#11246: Mar 19th 2012 at 5:42:12 PM

I'm sure they do, but their complaints don't get much airtime. Just as opponents of the U.S. and England's numerous military interventions aren't taken seriously.

edited 19th Mar '12 5:43:04 PM by johnnyfog

I'm a skeptical squirrel
Ultrayellow Unchanging Avatar. Since: Dec, 2010
Unchanging Avatar.
#11247: Mar 19th 2012 at 5:43:47 PM

But Bush and Blair suffered public backlash for their actions. I don't see either of them on the political scene anymore.

edited 19th Mar '12 5:44:04 PM by Ultrayellow

Except for 4/1/2011. That day lingers in my memory like...metaphor here...I should go.
SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
Show an affirming flame
#11248: Mar 19th 2012 at 6:10:47 PM

Not to mention that without a neutral, disinterested, third-party force with boots on the ground, the cease-fire will get broken when one side or the other thinks it will gain an advantage from it. There's no way the anti-Assad forces will perceive Russia as neutral, and no other country wants to commit the troops, under the time-honored dictum of "you broke it, you buy it."

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#11249: Mar 19th 2012 at 7:34:07 PM

Russia made clear to the rebels that Moscow won't deal with them until they unify. Til then, they'll back Assad.

Again, what is happening is horrible, but the alternative would be worse.

SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
Show an affirming flame
#11250: Mar 19th 2012 at 7:52:18 PM

If by "the alternative" you mean a hands-on intervention, I'm afraid that you're right on that point.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.

Total posts: 29,072
Top