Tunisian President Saied seizes control of electoral commission
, now I realize that I am talking in the wind since people don't learn, but remember to never have a presidency with any kind of power.
The end of the Spring will be whenever the civil wars in Yemen and Syria end, as they are the remaining direct consequences. In Syria's case, it will be in the victory of Assad. But in Yemen's case, there is no going back to how it was before (literally since buddy boy is dead, but also figuratively because the state doesn't exist anymore except on paper and the north and south and tribes all have different ideas).
Sad to see Tunisia fall like this though.
https://twitter.com/Jake_Hanrahan/status/1517607382955687936?cxt=HHwWgICsmfn3z48qAAAA
There's video of a Turkish Army APC attacked somewhere in Syria.
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In Syria's case, it depends on what the current wheat situation is with the Assad government. If its just the cost issue, depends if that cost is above or below the current black market price. There was already a shortage in Syria due to the war, after all.
If its a supply issue, Iran and others will probably make up whatever Russia can't provide.
Yemen is a different beast. It has sufficient supply from the outside, but the average Yemeni can't afford the cost of it, and that was before the global shortage. If the Saudis or the UAE can subsidize the difference, shouldn't affect much. But if the supply situation worsens, the UN is going to have to see where it can get food from. India, which is nearby and an exporter, can make up the difference.
EDIT- To answer the question more succinctly, I don't think the political situation in Syria will change much from the issues, but I do think it could possibly do so in Yemen if Riyadh/Abu Dhabi and the UN don't figure out a solution quickly to prevent food collapse.
Edited by FFShinra on Apr 23rd 2022 at 11:41:16 AM
Not sure that this is from a reliable source: Ukraine's Prosecutor General says Pilot & Major Krasnoyartsev, whose #RuAF Su-34 was shot down in March, will face trial for war crimes. He bombed #Syria in 2015-17 & 2020 (~200 sorties). His last action: killing a civilian who spotted him after he ejected
- posted this to the Ukraine thread too but since we discuss Syria here, might be relevant.
Reuters: First commercial flight takes off from Sanaa, raising hopes for Yemen peace.
Dozens of Yemenis, including patients who waited years for medical treatment, went through security checks in the airport's terminal which has been deserted since 2015, excited and relieved at the prospect of being able to travel.
"We have waited for this trip for three years. Because of my father's health condition, we couldn't take him by land to Aden. Praise be God, the relief has come," said Ismail al-Wazan before boarding a flight to Amman with his father in a wheelchair.
As the first Yemenia flight landed empty in Sanaa from Aden, where the carrier has been operating relatively normally, water cannon sprayed the runway to celebrate the milestone. The flight then carried on to the Jordanian capital with the passengers.
The seven-year conflict has pitted a Saudi-led coalition against the Iran-aligned Houthis and put Middle East security in peril.
The coalition, which controls Yemen's airspace and seas, intervened in the civil war in 2015 after the Houthis ousted the internationally recognised government the previous year.
The two-month truce came into effect on April 2 and has largely held but resumption of select flights agreed under the deal stalled after the Saudi-backed government insisted all passengers from Sanaa need government-issued passports.
Facing pressure from the international community, it agreed last week to allow Houthi-issued passport holders to travel outside Yemen. read more
The United Nations is seeking the extension of the nationwide truce, the first inclusive ceasefire in the war since 2016, to clear the way for broader negotiations to end the conflict that has killed tens of thousands and caused a humanitarian crisis.
The truce included a halt to offensive military operations, allowing fuel imports into Houthi-controlled ports, and some flights from Sanaa. The flights will facilitate separate talks on reopening of roads in the heavily disputed Taiz region.
The United Nations and United States welcomed the reopening of Sanaa airport.
"Yemen today is witnessing its calmest period since the war began, and these flights are an important step in further improving the lives and opportunities for the Yemeni people," Adrienne Watson, spokesperson of the White House National Security Council, said.
The Norwegian Refugee Council, which has been active in humanitarian operations in Yemen, said the first commercial flight from Sanaa was "a stepping stone" towards a lasting peace for Yemen.
The next flight from Sanaa is due next Wednesday.
Tunisia was the only holdout of the revolutionary wave. I believe that some of the authoritarians which never fell did reform somewhat (Kuwait, Oman and Jordan if I remember correctly), and we’ve obviously still not got a final end-state for Yemen or Libya.
It’s worth remembering that it was only 80 years after the French Revolution that the last French monarch (Napoleon the 3rd) actually fell. The Springtime of Nations/Revolutions of 1848 had all the revolutionary regimes overthrown by 1851, but it still marked a massive step forward for European democracy (Wikipedia actually has a historian quoted saying that what people fought for in 1848 ended up largely happening by the 1870s).
So if we look at Europe as a timeline, the Arab Spring of 2011 may be a nominal failure, but hopefully it’s planted a seed that will grow by 2040 and show big change by 2090.
It’s gonna be a long wait.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranSo updates from Yemen. Been a while since the ceasefire since Spring has largely held, but it seems the anti-Houthi side has used this opportunity to clean house:
Islah is being violently ousted from Shabwa province by the STC. At the same time, an STC man has been named governor of Hadhramaut and STC approved figures have taken over four ministries in the cabinet.
What this will mean for the top of the Presidential Leadership Council, the body that replaced President Hadi, 2/8 of which are Islah members, will be interesting.
Reuters: Yemen truce expires as U.N. keeps pushing for broader deal.
United Nations special envoy Hans Grundberg said late on Sunday he would continue to push for an extended and expanded deal between a Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi group, both under intense international pressure to come to an agreement.
"It is a sad day for the Yemeni people," said Abdullah Ali, a 58-year-old teacher in the capital Sanaa, where people rushed to stock up on fuel and food after the truce expired.
"We hoped to start receiving our salaries and to move towards a ceasefire. We are shocked," Ali told Reuters by phone.
Grundberg's proposal is for a six-month truce extension, a mechanism to pay civil service wages, and greater movement of goods and people in the country where 80% of the population of some 30 million rely on aid.
In a statement, the United States expressed deep concern over the expiration of the truce and said the expanded U.N. proposal would help to start negotiations on a "comprehensive ceasefire and an inclusive, Yemeni-led political process that would durably end the war."
The initial two-month truce was agreed in April and renewed twice despite grievances by both sides over its implementation. It allowed some fuel ships into Hodeidah port and some commercial flights from Sanaa, both held by the Iran-aligned Houthis.
"I will continue my relentless efforts to engage with the parties to quickly reach an agreement on a way forward," the envoy said in a statement, urging the parties to maintain calm.
The conflict, widely seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has killed tens of thousands, devastated the economy and left millions hungry.
Riyadh has been trying to exit a costly war in which the Houthis have launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The parties on Sunday accused each other of hampering peace efforts. The Saudi-backed government blamed the Houthis, de facto authorities in the north, for refusing the deal.
The Houthis' Supreme Political Council criticised the U.N. proposal as lacking and threatened attacks on "airports, ports and oil companies of aggressor countries" if the military coalition led by Saudi Arabia does not lift its sea and air restrictions.
The U.S. urged the Houthis to continue negotiations in "good faith" and work with the U.N. on an extended truce agreement.
"The United States underscores the unacceptability of Houthi rhetoric threatening commercial shipping and oil companies operating in the region," U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in the statement.
The coalition intervened in March 2015 after the Houthis ousted the internationally recognised government from Sanaa. The group says it is fighting a corrupt system and foreign aggression.
AFP via MSN: Yemen government 'determined' to renew truce with Huthis: FM.
"We are determined to renew the ceasefire and address all problems through dialogue," Foreign Minister Ahmed bin Mubarak said during a visit to Morocco.
The UN-brokered ceasefire, which was in effect since April but expired Sunday, had brought a sharp reduction in hostilities and facilitated moves to alleviate the dire humanitarian situation in the country, according to aid agencies.
Some 80 percent of the population rely on aid after eight years of war.
Bin Mubarak said the government wanted to preserve those gains.
"We have not made any escalatory moves, despite the Huthis announcing that the Red Sea is a military zone and directly threatening ships," he said.
The US special envoy on Yemen, Tim Lenderking, said that the "key elements of the truce continue to hold", including low levels of violence and movement of ships and civilian planes.
He said that talks on a truce extension broke down over Huthi "maximalist" demands that their own security personnel receive priority in payment of salaries.
"This essentially hijacked the discussion and it created a threshold that was simply too hard for the other side to contemplate and was entirely unreasonable. And I think some Huthi leaders understand this," Lenderking told reporters.
"I think if we see more flexibility from the Huthi side going forward, then this opens the road, I think, to this much better peace option," he said.
Lenderking said that Saudi Arabia, which has waged a military campaign in support of the government, backed the truce.
He also said that "private messaging" from Iranian leaders, who back the Huthis and have no diplomatic relations with the United States, indicates "they favor and embrace a political solution" and he was not aware of changes due to protests inside Iran.
Fighting between the Huthis and pro-government forces began in 2014, and escalated the following year when a Saudi-led military coalition intervened in support of the loyalists.
The war has killed hundreds of thousands of people, directly and indirectly, and created the world's worst humanitarian crisis, according to the United Nations.
The initial two-month ceasefire, twice renewed, had led to a 60 percent reduction in casualties and allowed fuel imports into the Huthi-held port of Hodeida to quadruple, humanitarian groups said.
UN envoy Hans Grundberg had proposed an extension that would include further measures such as allowing more fuel ships into Hodeida and paying public sector salaries.

https://twitter.com/Jake_Hanrahan/status/1513985742703312898?cxt=HHwWhICyzd6A4YIqAAAA
Something's happening in Syria concerning heightened alerts in the YPG.