The Arab Spring

Amnesty expose on Iraqi riot police's lethal use of CS grenades.

Apparently they've been using Serbian M99 and Bulgarian RLV grenades, which are directly modelled after US 40mm HE grenades. That means they're ten times as heavy as regular CS grenades while launching with the same muzzle velocity.

A fascinating article on Syria's situation from an Israeli newspaper:

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/.premium-trump-warms-to-syria-kurds-again-raising-alarm-in-russia-and-turkey-1.8193253

Russia and Turkey are concerned that with the turnaround in U.S. policy and the renewed recruitment of Kurdish forces for a war against the Islamic State, the Kurdish withdrawal agreement could collapse. This might prompt Turkey to resume its military operations aimed at forcing the Kurds 32 kilometers from the border.

The agreement with the Kurds, which was signed around the time Turkey invaded west of the Euphrates in Syria, has brought Russian forces into some of the places where U.S. forces were operating. The Russians had already begun joint patrols with the Turks to secure the region designated as a security zone to which Ankara plans to relocate around 2 million Syrian refugees of the 4 million or so living in Turkey. Now the fate of the planned security zone is unclear, as is whether conditions will allow for the refugees to be transferred.

But the fate of the refugees is secondary to concerns about a possible confrontation between Turkish and U.S. forces if Turkey decides to resume its offensive in Syria. Russia, for its part, is concerned that Turkey might accuse it of failing to uphold their agreement by not evacuating the Kurdish forces, and that it will leverage Russian hesitancy to entrench itself deeply in Syria, undermining the plan to transfer the region to President Bashar Assad’s control.

Concerns about a constitution

At the same time, it seems that Russia isn’t managing to advance its diplomatic plan to end the war in Syria, after the second meeting of the constitution-drafting committee fell apart. During the conference, which took place this week in Geneva and was attended by representatives of the Assad regime and the opposition, the two sides couldn’t even agree on an agenda for future meetings.

It seems that the excitement over the agreement to establish a 150-member constitutional committee, from which 45 people were chosen to draft the constitution, was premature, perhaps very premature. The disagreements aren’t just between the opposition and the regime – whom Assad referred to as “representatives who support the government position,” not as official government representatives. He did this so he wouldn’t be directly blamed if the talks failed, but also among opposition members it’s not clear what Assad’s role should be in the new government to be formed.

The constitutional committee has almost no Syrian Kurdish representatives, even though the Kurds make up around 20 percent of the population. Nor did the Kurds attend the diplomatic conferences in Astana, Kazakhstan, that preceded the establishment of the constitutional committee. The people ostensibly representing the Kurds are from the Kurdish National Council, which is part of the coalition of opposition movements, but the council is controlled by the Kurdish administration in Iraq that’s under the patronage of Turkey, which strongly opposes any involvement of Syrian Kurds in the process.

Herein lies the importance of the American presence in Syria and the renewed military cooperation with the Kurdish militias. Their status as a fighting force in the war against the Islamic State with American support could also strengthen them on the diplomatic front and make clear to both Turkey and Russia that without them any diplomatic process is doomed.

Interesting is that in all the military moves in northern Syria and the diplomatic ones in Geneva, Iran isn’t involved, even though it was an integral part of the process before the forming of the constitutional committee. According to reports from Syria, Iran now seeks to entrench itself in the border area between Syria and Iraq by completing the construction of a large military base at Albukamal that will assure a clear land route between Tehran and Syria.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Nov 28th 2019 at 1:31:49 AM

Its looking increasingly likely that Saad Hariri, the Lebanese PM who resigned under pressure from the protests, will likely be renamed as PM for lack of support for anyone else in the legislature. The protesters are unhappy, to say the least, and have come back onto the street.

In Algeria, the recent presidential election is not being taken seriously by the protesters there because all of the candidates are former lieutenants to Bouteflika. At this point, its clear the Army is ruling things.

Iraq's protests continue with no end in sight.

Is Saad Hariri the PM whose resignation was announced by Saudi Arabia when he was their "guest"? Because if so, this must be very awkward for SA.

Same guy, yeah, but not the same resignation. When he resigned in Saudia, he then rescinded it when he stopped being their "guest". He resigned again two months ago under pressure from the Lebanese....and now he's being put back in by the Lebanese President.

Not to be grim, but I honestly think that guy is gonna end up assassinated like his father.

Forgot one other things: It seems this week Turkey signed an agreement with the Tripoli government in Libya to act as shock troopers for them in exchange for recognizing a controversial maritime map that has Greece quite pissed.

Dunno if it’s updated, but Russian and Chinese UN ambassadors used their vetos to restrict humanitarian aid to northwest Syria through Turkey IIRC.

Well that agreement between Libya and Turkey went quickly from theoretical to practical. Erdogan is about to ask the Turkish legislature for the authority to send troops into Libya (the internationally recognized government of which has requested intervention).

This will put them at loggerheads with Egypt, the UAE, and Russia, who back Field Marshal Haftar's Libyan National Army, nominally under the control of the Tobruk government in the east. It will be interesting to see how much their backing of him goes, if they escalate by sending troops of their own or not.

The Sultan is pissing off Moscow after he gave the US and NATO.

What is he trying to achieve?

Don't have a map of Suleiman's empire handy right now, but... basically that?

Eh, I'm sure he knows he can play both sides to a certain extent, Turkey is quite valuable to both sides as a location. But that extent is probably smaller than he thinks it is.

So it seems like there may be positive news on the Yemen front

& Yeah, and in addition to rebuilding the Ottoman Empire, it keeps their rival Egypt tied up and tweaks the UAE's nose besides (those two have a whole shadow rivalry going all along the coast of the Red Sea, backing rival regimes and so on).

That it involves Russia seems to be an afterthought more than anything else. And given how much they are giving Moscow in Syria, which they care more about, it probably works out.

Indeed.

Good for the short term in Yemen. Let's see if they can make a lasting peace.

So the newly elected President of Algeria (a former bureaucrat that served the guy before Bouteflika) has chosen a prime minister (a professor and former diplomat) for his new government.

The protesters aren't happy about it because there are still Bouteflika era figures in powerful positions, including those two guys, and the army is still deeply involved.

But speaking of the army, the Army Chief suddenly died of a heart attack on Monday, so this is about as close to a clean sheet as one can have without a complete collapse of the Algerian state.

EDIT- Also, the death itself seems rather.....timely. Can't decide if its divine providence or an assassin.

Edited by FFShinra on Dec 28th 2019 at 9:53:47 AM

The guy was a few weeks away from his 80th birthday, and the photos I could find made him look rather out of shape. Can't rule out assassination entirely but my instinct is to credit this to nature.

Or just someone hiding his heart medication.

Regarding Libya, isn't Russia mostly interested in the region to keep the shit stirred? It's not one of their strategic priorities.

Looks like the investigation into Mesurier's death was said to be caused from falling from the balcony of his house in Turkey.

There was mention that he took a sleeping pill recently before his death though.

Maybe I've just got a wild imagination or I'm paranoid or whatever, but that ALSO sounds like some hitman shenanigans.

Russia won't back a warlord just to be a troll. They back Haftar over the currently recognized regime for two reasons: 1. He's an ardent anti-Islamist (the current Tripoli government is Islamist friendly out of necessity due to militia influence), and Russia's primary concern in Libya is to prevent the place from becoming a terrorism breeding ground. 2. He's probably promised them some variety of control over the oil should he win (currently the oil that manages to get pumped and refined in Libya is sold to ENI and Total, both of which are rivals to Russian energy firms).

And I guess, related to the second point, they also have some reasonable assurance he can pay for the equipment they give him, if he wins. Plus, it gets Moscow in Egypt and the UAE's good graces, and Putin is very much interested in taking over the post of middle east suzerain from the US.

You forgot 3. Because the government in Tripolis is backed by the West, he must find it even more appealing (in addition to the reasons you listed above) to back Haftar. Because if Haftar wins, he can even further underline in the powerlessness of the West in the region. And no doubt he also wants to get payback for 2011, when the West overthrew Gadaffi against his wishes.

Maybe it is petty to suspect such personal motives of a politician. But since Russia has justified more or less anything of what they did during the last decades with petty grudges, I do not believe my reasoning to be thaat absurd.

Edited by Zarastro on Dec 30th 2019 at 1:54:20 PM

That's also true and I agree with that.

Iran-backed PMFs (*not* "protesters") are storming US Embassy Baghdad.

Way to end the decade.

They have since been talked down. Can't help but wonder if they will try that again soon though.

They don't have the resources just yet to enable such pettiness, even if they personally feel it.

I’d argue that it’s both shit stirring and a strategic priority, international shit stirring is part of Russian’s global strategy.

They did say that they're willing to march again to make their point.