Western media seems to be paying more attention to the protests against the shuffling zombie that is Bouteflika. The BBC is openly wondering how a guy who suffered a stroke five years ago and is chair-bound and is hardly ever seen can run the country. They figure (as we as a forum did, back during his last election) that The Powers That Be of Algeria (military, business interests, even the official opposition) basically can't decide who can succeed him.
I said it last time and I will say it this time, if he dies and they don't have someone waiting in the wings by then (and it can happen at any time) I can see Algeria having some...ah....interesting....times.
A USA today story on Shiekha Latifa after she failed to escape from Dubai.
- Sabri Boukadoum: New Foreign Minister
- Mohamed Arkab: New Energy Minister
- Mohamed Loukal: New Finance Minister (Used to be head of Bank of Algeria)
- Abdelaziz Bouteflika: Still Defense Minister
- Gen Ahmed Gaed Salah: Still Army Chief —> He's the one in the military who's calling for Bouteflika to get out.
PS - The new ones aren't officially appointed yet, but they're unofficially going to take over those portfolios.
Edited by Ominae on Mar 31st 2019 at 10:01:20 AM
Welp. That happened then.
Do you think we're going to see a transitional Government? Do you think the Government is going to maintain power? Or are the ingredients in place for something like a civil war?
The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -FighteerHard to say, as always with Algeria. Weirdly, the authoritarian junta controlling the country is also, in some ways, a shield against islamism. I don't think they will actually give up power, just give the people a more fashionable puppet leader, maybe use the wave of populism so successful in the world right now. But if they actually loosen their grasp on the nation politic, then the actual democrats will probably have to deal with the various regressive or downright terrorist groups (like AQMI) that have been dormant since the civil war.
Yeah they kind of overdo the "shield against Islamism" schtick to the point of giving it more power in the underground.
Anyway, on the matter of whether a transitional government will come through, it would depend on if there are any well-known Algerian technocrats who aren't affiliated with The Powers That Be. The only name I've heard tossed around in that regard is Lakhdar Brahimi, but he is a former foreign minister of Algeria and he was also asked by Bouteflika to oversee the constitutional convention, so I dunno if that disqualifies him or not. He is also quite old.
There is another issue, a sort of chicken or the egg problem in the demands the protesters are making. They generally want free and fair elections and also a constitutional convention to create a completely new constitution for Algeria. The problem comes from which should happen first. If they hold elections under the current system, the fear is the regime will only allow people considered part of The Powers That Be (even among the official opposition) to take part. If they have the convention first, the people in charge will be able to forge it to benefit themselves again.
Then, of course, there is the underlying issue that is girding the protests in the first place: High unemployment and a badly done centrally-planned, oil-based economy. If that issue isn't resolved, they could have the best statesman the world has ever seen and still come to nothing.
The regime has less and less cards to play. They gave up Bouteflika's reelection. Then they gave up Bouteflika himself. They can't really resign en masse if there is no one to take up the reigns (and frankly, it is not in their self interest to do so even if there was). My concern is they will eventually conclude that they can't meet the demands of the protesters any further and will want to put it down by force, banking on the international community keeping mum lest they get a rehash of the Algerian Civil War on their hands or something akin to Libya's situation.
TLDR, if they can't find credible Algerians from outside the system and find a fix to the economy, there is nothing stopping this from getting worse as the regime's only leverage at this point is the military (at least, short of completely changing how they've done things til now and they magically fix the economy immediately, which is...unlikely).

Good news with the White Helmets.
Around 100 of them are settled in the UK after passing through Jordan and vetted by law enforcement.