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Oh its very clear Assad is playing his allies against the middle to his own benefit precisely for the reason you stated. He would've been replaced by now otherwise. Either by the Iranians with a theocrat or by the Russians with someone who could move on beyond the conflict. I'm sure the Chinese, if their leverage ever gets anywhere near the same as those two, would also have their choice replacement.
Because ultimately, Assad doesn't really have a constituency of his own beyond the Alawites, who do not have the demographic fortitude to hold the country together on their own. And among world powers, his stock in trade was how westernized and sophisticated he was, which long since went away.
"Many would not be happy?" No one among the Syrians likes Assad. Not even the Alawites, who only stick with him out of sheer fear of persecution for having run a religious apartheid state since 1970. They'd be happy enough with any non-Sunni leader not calling for their destruction. He has no credibility with most of the rest of the population (with the exception of the coast, he lost control in almost all other provinces, and has only won them back with Russian air power and Iranian-controlled foreign militias) and fear of annihilation. The Russians don't like him because he is incompetent and has made this war lasted longer than really necessary. The Iranians don't like him because he does not fit in with their ideology (Alawite heterodoxy and Baathism aside, Assad is also personally secular by all reports)...and because he is incompetent.
A new leader, even from the same regime, gets a clean slate, and motive to prove himself to the people. That would get the ball rolling for rebuilding at the very least. Might even lead to modest reforms and slowly repairing the societal damage from the conflict. Assad cannot do that because of the blood on his hands. So yeah "Assad 2", as you call him, is still a better prospect for Syria and resolving the conflict than the original chinless wonder.
Libya isn't really a viable comparison. It's issues have to do with the fact that Gaddafi was a real life Fisher King who tied the state's existence to his own by not creating any institutions whatsoever. There exist institutions in Syria outside of Assad, both before the war and especially afterwards (courtesy of Russia and Iran). It is also relatively homogeneous religiously and ethnically speaking.
Egypt is not the ideal scenario, but it is better than what Syria has going for it right now, to be sure. It doesn't require the army for it to happen either, as long as one or more of Assad's benefactors seeks to make it happen.
Yeah you absolve his criminality by not giving a shit about his criminality or finding anything wrong with it. His incompetence doesn't excuse that and your apathy doesn't excuse you. As for western leaders not caring, I'm well aware of their hypocrisy. I've called it out numerous times on this forum. It's also not relevant to the fact that Assad will remain persona non grata in their capitals for a variety of different reasons. Popular discontent at his crimes (which, even if you think the leaders don't care, they do care that their people care), being the cause of the migration crisis, allowing for the creation of Daesh, being a client of Russia and Iran....Western leaders have plenty of reasons beyond righteous indignation to not want him around.
Clean state? If now, than yeah, you would need someone else. But I am talking about 2011, when he could have just given up like Yanukovich or Mubarak. In 2011, not "No one among the Syrians liked Assad". But the protesters wouldn't have liked if he did just choose someone who did the same thing under different name, I think. They didn't begin with Assad' must go, at least. And in Egypt, for example, they didn't want for Mubarak son to be president. Would it be a clean state, if he was, than? And for persona non-grata reasons: I mentioned some of them, too. But the western public had permited their leaders "reaproachment" with Gaddafi despite his literal terror acts in Europe. Whatever Assad does in Syria, can never make him more a pariah than him .
By "ideal Egypt scenario" I mean, had Assad stepped down immediatly, this would be the best that could have happened in Syria. But I think worse would have been much more likely.
Edited by Smeagol17 on Oct 14th 2018 at 12:39:43 PM
John Oliver did a good segment on the murdered Post Journalist:
Trump on twitter has been emphasizing that he’s not an American Citizen, even though he was a legal resident of the United States.
But not a citizen.
The Saudi's are really pushing hard against any sanctioning attempts.
Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele
The land borders Syria has recaptured are opening up. These go to Lebanon and Jordan.
Technically, the only crossing opened up was the Nassib crossing with Jordan. Since Syria is Lebanon’s only functional border, though, this sort of opens up Lebanon too.
Let’s define “open”, though. If I were Lebanon I’d be pretty wary about passing goods through Syria.
They should have sent a poet.
Jake Tapper actually pointed that out on Twitter.
15 “Tourists” show up in Istanbul on their private jet at three in the morning, with a Bonesaw, and leave the same day.
Sounds Legit.
Edited by megaeliz on Oct 15th 2018 at 11:17:22 AM
I was only talking about now.
I wonder how Jordan would be affected if the Israelis struck the wrong lorry....
Edited by FFShinra on Oct 15th 2018 at 3:57:16 AM
Jordan has been entirely cut off to land transit since 2015, so it would probably just be more disappointing than anything else.
2/ One source: report will likely conclude that the operation was carried out without clearance and transparency and that those involved will be held responsible.
One source: report is still being prepared and cautioned that things could change.
Yeah, we just wanted to abduct him and torture him, but we accidentally killed him instead, and chopped him to bits with a bone saw we also just happened to have with us. Oops?
Edited by megaeliz on Oct 15th 2018 at 9:32:07 AM
And here’s The full article from CNN:
One source says the report will likely conclude that the operation was carried out without clearance and transparency and that those involved will be held responsible.
One of the sources acknowledged that the report is still being prepared and cautioned that things could change.
The Washington Post columnist was last seen in public when he entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in Turkey on October 2. Previously, Saudi authorities had maintained Khashoggi left the consulate the same afternoon of his visit, but provided no evidence to support the claim.
Khashoggi's fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, who was waiting outside the consulate, says she did not see him re-emerge.
The disappearance created a diplomatic rift between Saudi Arabia and the West. Amid the fallout, international firms pulled out of a high-profile investment summit, the Future Investment Initiative conference, due to take place later this month in Riyadh.
The case also caused friction between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which repeatedly accused the Saudis of failing to cooperate with their investigation.
Turkish authorities previously said they believed that 15 Saudi men who arrived in Istanbul on October 2 were connected to Khashoggi's disappearance and possible murder. At least some of them appear to have high-level connections in the Saudi government.
On Friday, a source familiar with the investigation told CNN that Turkish authorities have audio and visual evidence that shows journalist Khashoggi was killed inside the consulate.
CNN reporters saw Turkish investigators, including forensics officers, entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul Monday evening. Saudi officials granted permission for the premises to be searched, a Turkish diplomatic source told CNN. Police were seen cordoning off the area before investigators arrived. Turkish officials also wanted to search the nearby consul general's residence.
Edited by megaeliz on Oct 15th 2018 at 9:50:46 AM
Well, there goes all the money spent on the PR campaign since 2015... .
I mean, hasn’t everyone gone to a foreign country at three in the morning with 15 men and a bone saw to interrogate and kidnap a Political Dissident?
Edited by megaeliz on Oct 15th 2018 at 2:20:06 PM
Oh, bother.
Their defense amounts to "They didn't mean to kill him, only torture and kidnap him! And we totally had no idea this was happening in our own consulate!"
This after they already claimed the guy had left.
Edited by M84 on Oct 16th 2018 at 2:21:21 AM
Disgusted, but not surprised
Rope: check
Duct Tape: check
Zip ties: Check
Black Van: Check
Bonesaw: check
Edited by megaeliz on Oct 15th 2018 at 2:29:20 PM
Oh, bother.
They're supposedly already planning to pin the blame on a friend of the Crown Prince, letting the Crown Prince off the hook for this. Because isn't that what friends are for?
Disgusted, but not surprised
Jared Kushner has a bunch of shady ties in the Middle East. Lots of robber baron type figures, and Mafiya types.
Now that Trump is actively trying to help cover up the blatent assassination of a political dissent and official US resident, they might be worth a second look.
Edited by megaeliz on Oct 15th 2018 at 2:43:11 PM
Oh, bother.
It's pretty obvious that's what's happening, along with Trump's general liking for authoritarian leaders.
Disgusted, but not surprised
Someone dug this up from a 2016 WaPo report:
Four of those companies, in which Trump was named president or director, remained active at the time of Trump’s May financial filing. The disclosures do not provide more detail for the companies, and Trump representatives did not respond to requests for comment.
On Aug. 21, the same day Trump created four of the Jiddah companies, he told a rally crowd in Alabama: “Saudi Arabia, I get along with all of them. They buy apartments from me. They spend $40 million, $50 million. Am I supposed to dislike them? I like them very much.”
In January, a few months after the Jiddah companies were created, Trump told Fox News that he “would want to protect Saudi Arabia” from a potential Iranian threat but added that “Saudi Arabia is going to have to help us economically” and referenced the billions of dollars the Arab kingdom has made off the oil trade.
And now he’s tweeting about it
Now I’m extra certain that he does.
Edited by megaeliz on Oct 16th 2018 at 12:32:39 PM
From the NYT,
Saudi Arabia Weighs Blaming Intelligence Official for Khashoggi Killing
The plan to assign blame to Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, a high-ranking adviser to the crown prince, would be an extraordinary recognition of the magnitude of international backlash to hit the kingdom since the death of Mr. Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi dissident. A resident of Virginia and contributor to The Washington Post, Mr. Khashoggi was last seen entering the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2.
Blaming General Assiri could also provide a plausible explanation for the killing and help deflect blame from the crown prince, who American intelligence agencies are increasingly convinced was behind Mr. Khashoggi’s disappearance.
Turkish officials have said they possess evidence showing that 15 Saudi agents assassinated and dismembered Mr. Khashoggi in the consulate.
After two weeks of blanket denials and mounting pressure from Turkey and Washington, Saudi Arabia said it would conduct its own investigation to determine who was responsible.
But even with the investigation still ostensibly underway, the Saudis are already pointing to General Assiri as the culprit, according to the three people familiar with the Saudi plans. People close to the White House have already been briefed and given General Assiri’s name.
And Kushner comes up yet again.
Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law and Middle East adviser, has been urging the president to stand by Prince Mohammed, according to a person close to the White House and a former official with knowledge of the discussions.
Mr. Kushner has argued that the crown prince can survive the outrage just as he has weathered past criticism.
Edited by megaeliz on Oct 18th 2018 at 7:05:33 AM
For the record, the disappearance news might be better suited for the general middle east thread...
That being said, I wonder if Salman will make his son fall on his metaphorical sword....like give up a few ministries or something. Not sure giving up an intelligence official would really do it.
CNN aired an interview with a lawyer who defended a prince who got kidnapped from Geneva years ago.
In a way, it’s reminding me how Mossad does things.
—
@Chinese forces in Syria
- IIRC, they weren’t in offensive operations.
Edited by Ominae on Oct 18th 2018 at 6:17:37 AM
My Hair Provides Affordable Healthcare
It hasn't been reported what they do period beyond the obviously weasely Chinese official press statements. My guess is that those claims of non-offensive duties are Exact Words signifying that the PLA commadoes are being used as personal guard details for Assad to keep the Russians or Iranians at a distance. Hell, I bet they even got some Chinese helicopter or plane on standby in case if he really had to bail out of Syria.
Edited by FluffyMcChicken on Oct 18th 2018 at 9:14:52 AM
As far as we know they hang out in Damascus doing patrolling and PRC brand of counter-terrorism activity. There were pictures of a Chinese militia on the Assad side before they even officially announced that the Night Tigers were deploying, so there might be shenanigans.
Edited by TerminusEst on Oct 18th 2018 at 10:45:25 AM
Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele
Edited by Smeagol17 on Oct 14th 2018 at 4:54:35 PM