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When you depopulate the planet....

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Flayer Since: Nov, 2010
#1: Dec 25th 2010 at 1:49:21 PM

I've got a novel in the works, a big one, based on the premise that one day, everyone on the planet ages 18 and up disappears. More or less vanishes into thin air. No reason given, many speculated upon by those left behind (religious/paranormal/scientific/just unexplainable) but nothing is ever confirmed. The disappearance is a one-time thing, people who turn 18 afterwards are unaffected (although at first many are afraid they will be, once they figure out no one older than 17 has been left).

So, storywise, I've worked out everything in great detail. Its centered around a town in Illinois (guess where the author lives...), fictional. Many characters, many subplots about how they go about trying to live, but main features is formation of two large factions that end up in a sort of war.

What I would like help on is figuring out the exact effects on infrastructure and stuff of the whole adult population being gone. I'm going to have the town's power die about a day and a half after the vanishing. But I'd like to get some advice on other aspects of how things function afterwards.

And if there's any other questions or points to bring up about how the world would be affected, please bring them up (for example, I'm realizing there will be a lot of babies, small children, and the retarded left behind who will end up dying if no one saves them.)

Medicus Sierra 117 from Australia Since: Sep, 2009
Sierra 117
#2: Dec 25th 2010 at 4:00:49 PM

This is a fairly good place to start, though I imagine you would have difficulty tracking episodes down.

Essentially within a week almost all infrastructre (water, etc.) would be gone. Within ten years the roads would disappear. I can't really remember much, but it's surprising how quickly nature takes over. The world would be very different a just a year down the line.

It's not over. Not yet.
chihuahua0 Since: Jul, 2010
#3: Dec 25th 2010 at 4:06:08 PM

Sounds similar to the YA book series Gone.

MattII Since: Sep, 2009
#4: Dec 25th 2010 at 6:32:25 PM

Chaos would reign, a lot of infrastructure would fall over and the population of the world would fall considerably (yes, I know technically it would already have done, but it would do so even further with no support infrastructure). I don't think it would be as bad as 'life after people though', after all, there's got to be some people out there who know how to siphon fuel and replace car-parts, so I expect at least some vehicles would still be moving, at least for a few years.

edited 25th Dec '10 6:53:34 PM by MattII

Medicus Sierra 117 from Australia Since: Sep, 2009
Sierra 117
#5: Dec 25th 2010 at 7:28:44 PM

From the sounds of it everyone over the age of eighteen is dead.

99% dieoff is a conservative estimate.

edited 25th Dec '10 7:28:55 PM by Medicus

It's not over. Not yet.
Five_X Maelstrom Since: Feb, 2010
Maelstrom
#6: Dec 25th 2010 at 7:48:29 PM

Nope. Just over a quarter of the global population is below 18. The main problem with social demographics in developed countries today is that there are too many "dependents", people over about 65 and under 18, and too few people who can work and have children to balance it out. Hence the saying, "the world is getting older", or something to that effect.

Most of the youth are located in the less developed countries, like Africa and the Middle/Near East. Due to their lifestyles, such people would be much more independent, and would suffer much less of a decline in population due to overdependence problems such as those found in developed countries.

edited 25th Dec '10 7:53:11 PM by Five_X

I write pretty good fanfiction, sometimes.
MajorTom Since: Dec, 2009
#7: Dec 25th 2010 at 7:48:48 PM

Roughly 40% likely more of the planet is 18 or younger. Average human age worldwide is quite low.

Medicus Sierra 117 from Australia Since: Sep, 2009
Sierra 117
#8: Dec 25th 2010 at 7:51:58 PM

I was actually talking about the dieoff after everyone over eighteen gets killed.

In developing countries they'd stand a much better chance of surviving, though it would be even harder than what they're used to.

In developed countries... yeah, 99% dieoff. Your typical survivors are the country bumpkin, the boy scout, and the unusually intelligent and/or hot girl that somehow knows how to maintain firearms/cars/power tools/whatever.

edited 25th Dec '10 7:52:55 PM by Medicus

It's not over. Not yet.
Five_X Maelstrom Since: Feb, 2010
Maelstrom
#9: Dec 25th 2010 at 7:56:10 PM

I wouldn't be so sure. 99% seems ridiculously high, even for such developed countries. Young people are more skilled and resourceful than one would think.

I write pretty good fanfiction, sometimes.
Medicus Sierra 117 from Australia Since: Sep, 2009
Sierra 117
#10: Dec 25th 2010 at 7:59:48 PM

Oh, I have no doubt that a lot of kids would be able to survive.

I just know that I wouldn't have been one of them.tongue

It's not over. Not yet.
kassyopeia from terrae nullius Since: Nov, 2010
#11: Dec 25th 2010 at 9:58:41 PM

The main problem with social demographics in developed countries today is that there are too many "dependents", people over about 65 and under 18, and too few people who can work and have children to balance it out.

"Problem" being a relative term, though: Increases in efficiency due to automation far more than compensate for decreases in workforce availability. Thus, ever-growing quality of life (in purely material terms) among most strata of society, in spite of significant unemployment.

Most of the youth are located in the less developed countries, like Africa and the Middle/Near East. Due to their lifestyles, such people would be much more independent, and would suffer much less of a decline in population due to overdependence problems such as those found in developed countries.

I wonder what would happen to the infants, though. Even in third-world countries, I'd imagine there wouldn't be nearly enough teenage mothers to be able to breast-feed more than a tiny fraction. Are synthetic alternatives available at all, in such places? If yes, would the stores last long enough for the infants to be ready for other foods? If no, just how bad is cow's milk for babies?

Of course, all of this is only relevant if the teenagers don't simply decide to abandon the infants in the first place. In the rural areas of "healthy" third-world societies that can be taken as a given, though, I think, due to close-knit social bonds at the level of family and tribe and the taking on of adult responsibilities at younger ages.

Soon the Cold One took flight, yielded Goddess and field to the victor: The Lord of the Light.
Five_X Maelstrom Since: Feb, 2010
Maelstrom
#12: Dec 25th 2010 at 10:18:37 PM

Cow's milk is unhealthy for young babies (1 or so years or less), but there are government supplied "alternatives" in developing countries, which aren't healthy at all. However after 1 year, babies could drink cow's or other animals' milk without any significant consequences.

I write pretty good fanfiction, sometimes.
Zolnier The Odd Lad from A suspiciously dull shop Since: Apr, 2009
The Odd Lad
#13: Dec 25th 2010 at 10:23:27 PM

God what about gestating fetuses? Do they vanish with the mothers or...

Life's Gonna Suck When You Grow Up... But Is It That Great Now?... Also I'm Skylark2 now.
kassyopeia from terrae nullius Since: Nov, 2010
#14: Dec 25th 2010 at 10:33:36 PM

[up][up] Yes, I consulted wikipedia before posting and gathered that much. But "unhealthy" can mean a lot of things; the long-term effects might be slightly stunted growth for 10% of infants, or death for 90%. Quite possibly nobody knows for sure, because it's the sort of experimental data hard to come by for any scientist who qualifies as a civilized human being at the same time - and the Mengele-types tend to be notoriously unreliable, even if their results are available somehow.

[up] Ew! Good thinking, though.

edited 25th Dec '10 10:34:17 PM by kassyopeia

Soon the Cold One took flight, yielded Goddess and field to the victor: The Lord of the Light.
Five_X Maelstrom Since: Feb, 2010
Maelstrom
#15: Dec 25th 2010 at 10:40:53 PM

Well, cow's milk can lead to anemia due to nutrient imbalance, and the alternatives supplied by third world governments are "unhealthy" in that they're contaminated. That could lead to any number of things, but mostly death, because medical care would be impossible to find in this situation.

I write pretty good fanfiction, sometimes.
Zolnier The Odd Lad from A suspiciously dull shop Since: Apr, 2009
The Odd Lad
#16: Dec 25th 2010 at 10:46:07 PM

[up][up]So do they vanish as well or not? Depending on the trimester some may have a chance at survival. Could be a squicky plot point.

edited 25th Dec '10 10:48:04 PM by Zolnier

Life's Gonna Suck When You Grow Up... But Is It That Great Now?... Also I'm Skylark2 now.
MattII Since: Sep, 2009
#17: Dec 25th 2010 at 10:49:01 PM

Oh, another though, say good-bye to democracy as government, police and lawyers are now gone. In fact I think things would turn out not too different from Lord of the Flies Except with cars, and no rescue.

Oh, and what about clothes and other things, are lots of keys and key-cards and things suddenly going to go missing?

edited 25th Dec '10 10:52:18 PM by MattII

Medicus Sierra 117 from Australia Since: Sep, 2009
Sierra 117
#18: Dec 25th 2010 at 10:56:58 PM

They won't be very useful after a day or so.

According to Flayer electricity goes by Day Two.

It's not over. Not yet.
LoniJay from Australia Since: Dec, 2009 Relationship Status: Pining for the fjords
#19: Dec 25th 2010 at 11:24:21 PM

There was a TV show with a similar premise, called the Tribe. In that world all the children separated into warring gangs and fought over food supplies and clean water.

Be not afraid...
Zolnier The Odd Lad from A suspiciously dull shop Since: Apr, 2009
The Odd Lad
#20: Dec 25th 2010 at 11:39:45 PM

[up]But an infinite supply of face paint.

Life's Gonna Suck When You Grow Up... But Is It That Great Now?... Also I'm Skylark2 now.
TibetanFox Feels Good, Man from Death Continent Since: Oct, 2010
Feels Good, Man
#21: Dec 25th 2010 at 11:56:01 PM

Y The Last Man is another series worth looking to for inspiration.

In that case there was a Gender Cide, but since most of the professions that run infrastructure are male dominated, the effect in that department wouldn't be too different from all the over 18's suddenly disappearing.

chihuahua0 Since: Jul, 2010
#22: Dec 26th 2010 at 6:57:24 AM

Don't forget that if the event happens in rush hour, the highways would be virtually untravelable by velicle due to all of the cars laying about.

HistoryMaker Since: Oct, 2010
#23: Dec 26th 2010 at 5:52:01 PM

I started babysitting at 13 by 16 I think I could have kept my little cousins alive. I’d at least have died trying.

Cow or goat’s milk is ok if you cook it and the kid isn’t allergic. Yeah you end up w/ anemia but it’s better than starvation. Also you can start diluted rice cereal pretty young. My mom used to stock up, and keep a ton of baby formula in the house so some kids would be ok for a while.

I’d be concerned about running out of food in general. Reserves would last a while do to low population, but eventually not much would be left. Do your characters have the means to grow anything? Are any of them hunters?

Random thoughts:

You’d probably have packs feral dogs. You’d probably have a lot of shell shocked little orphans some mute or selectively mute. A few little kids who don’t have an older sibling or a gang may beat the odds and survive for a while; maybe you should research feral children.

What would scare me would be older teens getting pregnant. Being a pregnant teen w/ no mom, no aunts, and no hope of medical care would be absolutely terrifying.

Lots of knowledge would be lost. Illiteracy would become pretty common though some older kids would make the effort to teach the little ones. Higher math would be lost. New mythologies would arise.

Oh and diarrhea, lots of diarrhea.

kassyopeia from terrae nullius Since: Nov, 2010
#24: Dec 26th 2010 at 10:13:14 PM

Cow or goat’s milk is ok if you cook it and the kid isn’t allergic. Yeah you end up w/ anemia but it’s better than starvation. Also you can start diluted rice cereal pretty young.

The kid better not be allergic to the goat's milk. tongue

Seriously, though, thanks for addressing that. Cooking anything might be a non-trivial task in itself once utilities have broken down, of course - but figuring out alternatives would be one of the survival essentials in any case. And the rural third-worlders I had in mind, or anyone else with access to live cows to obtain the milk in the first place, should be in a good position in that regard, too.

Soon the Cold One took flight, yielded Goddess and field to the victor: The Lord of the Light.
MattII Since: Sep, 2009
#25: Dec 27th 2010 at 1:06:58 AM

How long is it going to take everyone to disappear, is it going to happen all at once, or are people going to disappear one at a time?

And, oh crud, how are zoo animals going to react, because if some of the predators, lions, tigers, leopards etc. get out then they're going to contribute to the death toll a fair bit I'd say.


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