I'm not going to pretend that anybody has a "best" chance at winning; Remember how everyone thought Wolf was a shoe-in for a pre-ballot spot? Or that K. Rool was a shoe-in, and then the costume happened, making his support kind of fracture a bit?
Lots of characters tend to have their good points and bad points, so it's gonna depend on what the dev team thinks outweighs the negatives.
Shantae is a complete nobody. No chance at all. Shovel Knight is one step above a complete nobody, though I'll admit the amiibo does make him worth looking at. About as much as Banjo or James Bond, but it's something at least. Still no chance.
We have no idea who is winning the ballot, or how much influence it'll have on character selection. I suspect they have a general list on who Sakurai is willing to put in, and whoever does well will get in. But if say, Inklings win, they may not get in if they want to save them for Smash 5. If Ridley or K. Rool is winning, it doesn't mean Sakurai wants to put them in. If Snake, Slime, or Jibanyan win, that doesn't mean anything if Konami, Square, or Level 5 aren't willing to license out the rights.
Eh, his hand can probably be forced if a few people really want a character in. If Miyamoto demands that Toad be playable even if Sakurai is uninterested in him, Toad will probably get in. If The Pokemon Company wants Pichu back as DLC, say hello to another little mouse. But yeah, for the most part it'll depend on how much Sakurai cares for the character.
Edit:
For Smash indies are so far down the totem pole that they aren't relevant in any capacity to Nintendo history. Shantae has her own fanbase, but for the audience Smash and Nintendo are aiming for she is irrelevant.
edited 11th Sep '15 9:00:14 AM by Sterok
Near the last. They were the only company that would accept Shantae as the game was. It's also considered the best gameboy game made too.
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What are they aiming for, then? All the big names are already in. I'd argue characters like King K. Rool and Wolf are almost as, if not more, obscure than Shovel Knight and Shantae. Especially since Star Fox hasn't had a game in years, and Rool hasn't appeared in even longer.
edited 11th Sep '15 9:14:39 AM by EpicBleye
"There's not a girl alive who wouldn't be happy being called cute." ~Tamamo-no-MaeThe last one I can find is Extreme Ghostbusters in America and Doraemon no Study Boy in Japan. Shantae is pretty close to the end though.
Anyway, just be careful not to get your hopes up for niche characters (or anyone beyond Wolf really) because it's easy to think you're character is really popular when they do something of note and have the support of a dozen other fans on your forum of choice. I mean, I want Mallo from Pushmo (which is first party, has 4 games, and was arguably the 3DS's first big success), but I don't think he has any chance because he's just too small in the grand scheme of things.
First party characters are exempt from the obscure "rules" (which are unofficial, but I'm sure they're a consideration), so Wolf and Rool get a pass. Except Wolf isn't obscure since he was in Brawl, and Rool at least got to be in several multi-million sellers. Actually obscure is someone like Dillon, who was lucky to get an Assist Trophy.
edited 11th Sep '15 9:15:32 AM by Sterok
Shovel Knight has a theme on the 3DS, add that to the amino thing and...!
I doubt that really means anything, even if Indy is low on the list of priorities I think he'd fit in pretty good, Shantae might too, but Iv'e never played her games.
Seriously though, I'd imagine at least SOMEONE in Nintendo of Japan knows about Shovel Knight if he got those things and is/was fairly popular on E-shop.
Still a long shot
edited 11th Sep '15 9:17:05 AM by BlitzTrain
One of, yes; her original game came out in 2002 for the GBC, a year after the GBA came out.
And her next game didn't come out until 2010, with Risky's Revenge, aka one of the games that legitimized the concept of games for D Si Ware. And now she's got a best Seller on the eShop in the form of Pirate's Curse for both 3DS and Wii U, and an upcoming game for pretty much every console and PC, including the Wii U. Plus Nintendo's really been pushing for indie support recently, particularly due to the general lack of 3rd party support they've had for the Wii U.
It's easy to write any character off as having no chance or being a nobody when all you list is the negative aspects.
Oh, right, I'll throw out this Trivia too; Yacht Club Games, the makers of Shovel Knight is primarily composed of former members of Way Forward, the makers of Shantae. The head of Yacht Club asked the president of Wayforward if they could split off to form their own company to make Shovel Knight, and the president gave them their blessing.
The more you know~.
I'd say Shantae and Shovel Knight don't deserve a spot. In fact, I think I might actually be absolutely livid if they DID make it in.
In fact, I think Nintendo needs to stop supporting the Nindie canon altogether. Nowadays, they're just pretentious assholes who coast on their "Indie" status so they can be praised for releasing terrible games.note Shantae, Shovel Knight, Commander Video, and Meat Boy's creators in particular all have the gall to vocally state that their own characters deserve a spot. You know what they sound like when they say that? That little kid we all knew who demanded that their OC should be put in the roster.
edited 11th Sep '15 9:36:03 AM by BaffleBlend
"It's liberating, realizing you never need to be competent." — UltimatepheerConsidering neither Shantae nor Shovel have any real market penetration at all in Japan, and the only reason Shovel Knight's amiibo is an amiibo is because the NFC chips are licensed tech from Nintendo, I can't say either have much of a shot beyond maybe sneaking in as trophies, as much as I'd like otherwise.
edited 11th Sep '15 9:35:33 AM by Pulse
I sure said that!The main issue with Wonder Red is that Unite Morphs are ridiculously large for this sort of game, and a moveset without them wouldn't really represent his game.
yeah, sorry. I shouldn't have responded if I had nothing to say other than a denial. That just makes it look like my position has nothing to say.
edited 11th Sep '15 9:37:11 AM by Enlong
I have a message from another time...

I think that the characters that have the best chance of winning are Shantae and Shovel Knight.
- Both games recently became very popular
- Both main characters are easily recognizable and unique
- Both games' homes were initially on Nintendo (though not so much for Shovel Knight)
- Both of their devs told people that they'd love to have their characters in Smash
- Both games start with "Sh"
"There's not a girl alive who wouldn't be happy being called cute." ~Tamamo-no-Mae