Despite the world of Red Dead Redemption inhabited by cunning characters, there are still monumental lapses of judgement done by them.
Unmarked Spoilers Follow!
Red Dead Redemption
- In the beginning of the game, John Marston is in front of Fort Mercer. Above him is his target, Bill Williamson and at least two other men. All have guns trained on him. During the conversation, it's becoming clear that Bill won't listen to him.
You'd Expect: John Marston accepts Bill's offer to leave while he still had the chance.
Instead: He pulls out his cattleman revolver, but in a split-second, one of the bandits shoots him in the ribs, causing him to nearly bleed to death. He's lucky he was saved soon afterward and that the bandit in question didn't instead shoot him in the head. - There's also the matter of in-game cartoon character Beaumont The Burly. He goes to a women's suffrage support meeting, and doesn't agree with it.
You'd Expect: Him to keep his mouth shut and leave the meeting.
Instead: He walks up to the speaker, and tells her to quit it, and go home and get ready to make supper. The women attending respond by beating him to a pulp, tying him up, and dumping him on a railway line. - Allende, leader of Mexico during the Mexican Arc, is not spared this.
You'd Expect: Knowing that Marston only came to Mexico to get Bill Williamson, who is under Allende's protection, Allende would simply give this strange American bounty hunter what he wants and wave him goodbye as he curb-stomps the rebels.
Instead: He repeatedly refuses to give Marston the man he wants, has Marston help him fight a war Marston wanted no part of, orders Marston executed, which causes Marston to fall to the rebels, and after a series of events, Marston ends up helping the rebels secure complete, total victory. Allende's government is overthrown, and Marston/Reyes gets to kill Allende himself. Really, dude? Really?? - Agent Ross has manipulated John Marston into killing all of his former gang. Ross wants the glory for this, so he plans to kill Marston to take all the credit.
You'd Expect: Ross would just shoot Marston in the back right at the site of the battle with Dutch's gang, or order the Army to kill him right then and there, allowing him to blame the death on Dutch.
Instead: He lets Marston go and re-unite with his family for several days before invading his ranch with a company of trained soldiers. Marston, with the advantage of fighting on his own turf and resting up, kills dozens of them. Marston then dies trying to hold off Edgar and his people and give his family time to escape. Edgar does all this because he wants the glory of having finished off the last member of Dutch's outlaw gang himself (and shooting John in the back right after he'd helped out would've looked bad from that perspective), but this just provokes John's son to return to get his vengeance on Ross (and Ross' family, if the player feels particularly vindictive). - In the Epilogue, Jack Marston, son of John Marston, hunts down Edgar Ross who killed his father.
You'd Expect: Ross would surrender and calmly and respectfully explain to Jack why he had to kill John and/or claim that his superiors forced his hand. Leaving Jack with a conflicting choice. Although likely Jack would've killed Ross anyway, there would be a very small chance of Ross being spared.
Or: Assuming Ross isn't feeling mushy, he could feign a remorseful spiel, suddenly draw his gun and shoot Jack.
Instead: He taunts Jack Marston, basically saying his father deserved to die and that he will kill Jack if he won't shut up and leave. This only infuriates Jack more which leads to Ross's brutal death. Ross went from having a low chance of living when Jack confronted him, to a zero chance of living. Jack may have let Ross go if the man explained himself, but instead, Ross's Jerkass ways kills him in the end.
- Arthur is sent to shake down Thomas Downes for defaulting on his loan. Downes is clearly severely ill and coughing due to an illness.
You'd Expect: Arthur to calmly negotiate with Downes, despite Strauss's insistence to 'get rough' with him if necessary. Or else threaten his family or wave and shoot his guns around, if necessary, but not to get too close to Downes.
Instead: Arthur brutally assaults Downes, beating him up, as Downes accidentally coughs on Arthur himself.
Result: Arthur gets tuberculosis from him, which gets worsened by Colm Driscoll's repeated attacks on the Van der Linde gang as well as extreme stress related to him getting stranded in Guarma, which are high risk factors. Arthur succumbs to the disease not long after. - Pinkerton agent Andrew Milton is hired to take down Dutch van der Linde, and his plan is to find a gang member and convince them to turn Dutch in. His first order of business is to speak to Arthur Morgan.
You'd Expect: Milton to speak politely to Arthur and plant seeds of doubt in Arthur's mind about Dutch's sanity and loyalty. Milton could guilt him with stories and photos of the innocent people his gang had killed and tell him that Jack will likely end up being killed if he continues living in the gang. Sure, the chance of Arthur even considering betraying Dutch is very unlikely, but he may start to doubt Dutch early and create conflict within the gang.
Or You'd Expect: Milton to target one of the camp girls or Reverend Swanson, who are physically weaker and more compassionate and empathetic, and try to guilt or threaten them into snitching.
Or You'd Expect: Milton to just send his men to storm the camp.
Or You'd Expect: Milton to kill Arthur and kidnap Jack, holding him for ransom until Dutch turns himself in.
Instead: Milton mocks Jack as a "fine young man in such complex circumstances" and Arthur as an orphan street kid turned "degenerate murderer", tells him that his only reward for turning in Dutch is not being executed and reveals that the Pinkertons tortured Arthur's friend to death. Arthur despises him from then on and the gang continues to blaze a warpath, killing hundreds of lawmen, Pinkertons and soldiers.
Even Worse: Dutch slowly grows to be controlling and manipulative as he leads several gang members to their deaths, despite Arthur's protests. When they meet again, Milton even reminds Arthur that he did give him an option to turn Dutch in, and only this time does Arthur agree that it would have been the right decision all along. - After the Valentine kerfuffle, Dutch and Hosea relocate to the town of Rhodes. They soon learn about the Grays and the Braithwaites, two wealthy local families and longtime rivals.
You'd Expect: Dutch and Hosea will have the gang lie low and perform small-scale robberies and heists until they can relocate somewhere else. Meanwhile, Dutch, Hosea, Bill and Arthur can exploit their connections to the local law and find new targets.
Or You'd Expect: Dutch to firmly ally with the Grays.
Instead: They come up with a plan to rob both families to steal their Yankee gold.
Then you'd Expect: They make sure they don't send the same gang member to attack both the Braithwaites and Grays.
Instead: They send Arthur and Sean to burn down the Gray tobacco fields and later send Arthur, John and Javier to rob the Braithwaites. The Grays recognise Arthur and ambush him, killing Sean, and Jack is kidnapped by the Braithwaites. - While in Rhodes, Uncle leads a heist on a wagon which turns out to be heavily guarded. They lose their pursuers after a chase.
You'd Expect: They will continue riding up north up to New Hanover and shake the heat off before returning to camp. If they need to hide for a while, they can, but should ride off as soon as they and their horses recover.
Instead: They hide in a barn until nightfall, long enough for the guards to find and attack them. - During the riverboat casino robbery, Arthur impersonates a nouveau riche oil magnate. After winning big, he is escorted to a safe by the casino pit boss and Javier, who is disguised as a guard. Once they are there, Javier knocks out the sole guard with the butt of his rifle and Arthur disarms the pit boss of his pistol.
You'd Expect: Javier would knock out the pit boss as he did the guard (or Arthur will tell Javier to do so).
Instead: Arthur turns his attention to the safe. The pit boss pulls out a second gun and Arthur is forced to loudly shoot him, alerting the other guards. - After Milton and his men find the van der Linde gang due to their chaotic activities, the gang flees their hideout again. Dutch decides to get some money back to stay on top of things.
You'd Expect: Hosea to suggest telling the gang about the wagon he and Arthur fixed up, or even committing low-level robberies until the moment the heat is off from the gang, or (despite their reservations) let Strauss work overtime to get their money.
Instead: Hosea decides to rob the bank at Saint Denis, completely ignoring that the Pinkertons will be expecting it as it's the most obvious choice for them, while dismissing them to be dumb enough to not suspect the place.
As a Result: The gang goes ahead with their plans and strike at the bank. It ends in a catastrophic failure with Hosea and Lenny dead, John captured, Abigail on the run, their haul becoming completely pointless and Dutch going insane due to their losses. This also results in Micah deeming the gang as a lost cause, and he begins snitching on them to hasten its fall and spare himself once the law inevitably catches up to them. The resulting stress doesn't clearly help Arthur's growing tuberculosis, resulting in it becoming active, and eventually causes his death at the worst possible time: the gang's fracturing and Micah fleeing from him and Dutch. - Dutch had recently kidnapped and murdered Angelo Brontë.
You'd Expect: The gang will immediately pack up and move further North.
Instead: Hosea decides to go ahead with their bank robbery. It goes horribly wrong, as shown below. - While Dutch and his men rob Lemoyne National Bank, Agent Milton and his agents capture Dutch's right-hand man and best friend Hosea. Milton demands Dutch surrender himself, but Dutch refuses and threatens the hostages if Milton refuses to let Hosea go.
You'd Expect: Milton to keep Hosea hostage and negotiate with Dutch, demanding hostages be set free or Dutch's surrender in exchange for Hosea's freedom. In the meantime, he will have more of his men get onto the rooftop to block off all exits for the gang. If he's really feeling like a dick, he can beat Hosea or shoot him in the leg to threaten Dutch, but shouldn't give up his one and only bargaining chip.
Instead: Milton shoots Hosea dead. Luckily, Dutch doesn't follow through on his plan to execute the hostages, but the gang start shooting at the Pinkertons and escape. - On the first day at Beaver Hallow, Molly returns to camp drunk, screaming that she told on the gang to the Pinkertons.
You'd Expect: The gang would tie her up, wait for her to sober up and interrogate her.
Instead: Grimshaw promptly shoots her with a shotgun. Camp morale plummets and several members abandon the gang. The real traitor, Micah goes unnoticed and is free to report on the gang, until the gang's literal last minutes. - Agent Milton captures Abigail Roberts and prepares to ship her to prison. His men subdue and tie up Sadie Adler when she comes to rescue her and when Arthur comes in to save them, Milton holds him at gunpoint.
You'd Expect: Milton will immediately shoot Arthur dead.
Instead: He expresses his sympathies to Arthur over his sickness and tells Arthur that Micah was the informant. Arthur grabs his gun and Abigail manages to free herself and shoot him. - After escaping the Pinkertons, Arthur decides to tell Dutch about Micah's betrayal.
You'd Expect: Arthur will go back for Milton's body so he will have some proof that he at least met Milton. If not, just flee with Sadie and Abigail.
Or You'd Expect: Arthur to just kill Micah upon returning to camp and explain later; he's a dead man walking anyway with his tuberculosis.
Instead: Arthur storms into camp berating his comrades and accuses Micah of being the rat with no evidence. Everyone in the camp but Grimshaw turns on him. If not for the Pinkertons' arrival, he would have been gunned down. - After reuniting with Sadie and Charles in the Epilogue, John demands that Sadie bring him along if she ever wants to hunt and kill Micah, despite her being concerned that it may draw heat back on his family. One day, she arrives.
You'd Expect: John to decline to join Sadie and Charles.
Or You'd Expect: Sadie to ignore John's request and hunt Micah herself.
Instead: John, completely ignoring Abigail's pleas, goes ahead. The mission is successful, Micah dies and he earns a boatload of money, but as a direct result the FBI track him down and arrest him and Abigail, resulting in the events of the first game.
