WMG / The Hobbit

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Tolkien's book:

Bifur, Bofur, and Bombur are descended from the Dwarves of Nogrod or Belegost.

They are not of Durin's line, but the survivors of Nogrod and Belegost had to go somewhere after the Blue Mountains were broken. Why not Moria, then a rising star?

Bifur was a female dwarf.

Purely by accident, Bifur is the one dwarf who's never explicitly referred to as "he", as this character's name is only ever mentioned as part of a group (usually "Bofur, Bifur and Bombur"), as Bofur's and Bombur's "cousin" (which is a gender-neutral term), or in pronoun-free contexts, like "said Bifur". Furthermore, Bifur is the one dwarf to request something at Bilbo's house (jam and pastries) that isn't a stereotypically "manly" sort of food. Assuming Bilbo isn't sufficiently familiar with dwarf physiognomy to tell the difference between a male and a female, and that the "bearded female dwarf" trope applies in the novels as well as the movies, Bifur could just as easily have been a she-dwarf as a he-dwarf.

• Technically, any of the Dwarven members of the Company could be female. While male pronouns are used for them, the book is explicitly written from Bilbo's perspective, and even the note in the LOTR appendices that Dís was the only female dwarf in the royal tree shown was written by Hobbits in the Red Book of the Westmarch—and could be their false conclusion.
• Well, any of them except Thorin, Kili and Fili, that is. Thorin does go by the title "son of Thrain", after all, and his nephews are specifically identified as such.

Gandalf used magic to make Bilbo go along.

"That leaves you just ten minutes. You will have to run," said Gandalf."But-" said Bilbo."No time for it," said the wizard."But-"said Bilbo again."No time for that either! Off you go!"To the end of his days Bilbo could never remember how he found himself outside, without a hat, walking-stick or say money, or anything that he usually took when he went out; leaving his second breakfast half-finished and quite unwashed-up, pushing his keys into Gandalf's hands, and running as fast as his furry feet could carry him down the lane, past the great Mill, across The Water, and then on for a whole mile or more. Very puffed he was, when he got to Bywater just on the stroke of eleven, and found he had come without a pocket-handkerchief!

Glamour spell.

• Gandalf has one of the three rings originally bestowed upon the elves. He had the ring of fire which is meant to encourage bravery and adventurous feelings. Early passage of the hobbit also implies this when it first introduces Gandalf and says: Tales and adventures sprouted up all over the place wherever he went, in the most extraordinary fashion.

So magic spell and magic ring.

• Alternately...

Eru made Bilbo go along.

Eru is shown to work In Mysterious Ways. Gandalf states Bilbo was MEANT to find the ring, and obviously he wouldn't have gotten it if he had not taken the journey. We can see the truly incorruptible can resist the one ring, but none can resist the master of all creation.

Bilbo intentionally wrote the story to appeal more to children.

That's why the Hobbit book reads more like a children's book with a few sillier touches and bits that aren't nearly as prevalent in The Lord Of The Rings. Lord Of The Rings is a primarily straightforward accounting to Frodo and Sam's adventures, while Bilbo took creative liberties for his own story to make it easier to tell the children in Hobbiton.

The Arkenstone is actually a Silmaril.

Specifically the one Maedhros had on him when he threw himself into a fiery pit.

• Impalusible. The Silmarils are a BIG DEAL, the most important artifacts in the history of Middle Earth. The One Ring allows Sauron to maintain the power he had in the first age . . . when he was a minor boss monster in the quest of Beren and Luthien for a silmaril. It is however possible that it may have come into contact with a silmaril and still reflect some of its light, much like the phial of Galadriel that was given to Frodo.
  • We never see any indications in the Silmarillion that the Silmarils are artifacts of Power in the same sense as the Rings. They are the most beautiful things in Ea, and hallowed such that no creature of darkness can touch them without being burnt, but they don't grant any real supernatural powers.
  • Also note that the Arkenstone is first mentioned after Bilbo finds the Ring beneath the Misty Mountains, the point where Tolkien realized that The Hobbit was really part of his larger saga of the Jewels and the Rings.

The troll's purse is voiced by Gandalf.

When Bilbo tries to pickpocket a troll, the money purse suddenly says: "Ere, 'oo are you?", leading to him getting caught. It's never explained how the bag can talk, and it never does so again, nor does it get any comment from any of the characters. What if Gandalf got there sooner than we're led to believe, and it was *his* voice? He imitates the trolls later to keep them arguing until dawn, but what if he took advantage of the random encounter to take care of three pesky trolls and arm the party with the weapons found in their hoard? If they hadn't caught Bilbo they wouldn't have been turned to stone, so maybe Gandalf decided that the risk was justified by the ends.

It wasn't just Smaug's own greed that cursed the treasure of Erebor with gold-lust.

The seven rings that originally afflicted dwarfkind with insane levels of desire for gold were melted down by dragonfire, but the dragons that did so didn't let the molten gold go to waste. They scooped up the residue and added it to their hoards, which eventually made their way into Smaug's clutches as he bested lesser dragons in combat or laid claim to the wealth of powerful ones whose hoards were too well-hidden for their slayers to find. After he claimed Erebor for himself, Smaug retrieved all the wealth he'd previously collected and added it to his new hoard, including the long-pulverized gold dust of what had once been the Seven For The Dwarf Lords.

How Glamdring (Gandalf's sword) comes to be in the troll's lair.

Glamdring 'Foe-Hammer' was the sword that the king of Gondolin (Turgon) wore. After the Fall of Gondolin, the sword was taken by Idril or Tuor and taken to the mouths of Sirion. Tuor and Idril left it behind when they went sailing, as did Earendil, their son. After the sons of Feanor destroyed the haven at the mouths of Sirion, it was stolen by them, but later it was given to Elros, son of Earendil, first King of Numenor, because of the friendship between Maglor and the sons of Earendil. The sword became an heirloom of his house, but after Tar-Elendil's nephew(Valandil) became Lord of Andunie, it became an heirloom for them. At the downfall of Numenor, Elendil took it with him to Middle-Earth, but left it with Elrond in Imladris. Soon after, Glamdring is given to Isildur's descendants who give from father to son until it finally reaches Arador, Aragorn's grandfather, who was killed and eaten by trolls, the same trolls who attack the dwarves.

Bombur's hair turned white in the novel, the way it did in the Rankin-Bass Movie

In the Rankin-Bass movie Bombur starts out with a healthy amount of black hair, and sometime before being caught by the wood elves, he is next scene with white hair. This is NOT an error, he is consistently animated with white hair in the second part of the movie. As someone who doesn't know a lot about animation, I am willing to guess that this may have been a way of saving money (less black ink?) but it makes sense if you consider that Bombur's hair going from pitch black to pure white / grayish white has a valid in-story reason too. In the movie it's toned down quite a bit, but him being attacked by a spider is well focused on, so maybe a combination of the trauma and spider poison shocked the color straight out of his hair. Now, in the book, at around that same time, Bombur went through something far worse then a spider bite. His mental health, physical health, and emotional health took a huge toll.It's after this that the novel begins referring to him as "old" something it never did in the first half, and, well, white hair is generally associated with older folks...

Adaptations of The Hobbit:

The reason why the Dwarves have such heavy Plot Armor...

• ...Is because of that damn racial +2 Constitution Bonus. More hit points mean they can take more punishment.
  • I nominate this for funniest post on this wiki.

Possible casting choice in the Live-Film version of The Hobbit

BRIAN BLESSED as Beorn.

• Jossed.

BRIAN BLESSED as Dáin II Ironfoot.

• Still listed as an IMDB rumor.
• Alas, also Jossed. The part has been confirmed to the Scottish comedian Billy Connolly.

Possible Plot-points in the Live-action film

The "Bridge" will be the White Council driving Sauron out of Dol Guldur.

• Probably Jossed. An interview with Benedict Cumberbatch would indicate that Peter Jackson has scrambled the events a bit, and that the Necromancer will play some kind of role in the Battle of the Five Armies. Perhaps the Battle and the destruction of Dol Guldur will take place simultaneously in the movie and the Necromancer will be the driving force behind the sudden goblin invasion? It would make sense in terms of pacing, since having three separate epic climaxes would cause something of an ending fatigue in the moviegoers, and each climax would be less epic than the last. After all, in the original timeline Sauron falls first, followed by Smaug and finally Bolg, son of Azog, the leader of the goblins. This would mean three major villains, each less powerful than the last, and it's pretty much the exact opposite from what you expect from an epic fantasy story.
• However, the interview that the article cites is from August, and judging from the way Cumberbatch talks about his role, its quite likely he mixed up two separate storylines.

Peter Jackson will have a Creator Cameo as Tom Bombadil

And medical science will finally learn whether or not someone can be die of nerdgasm.

• What are you talking about? Everyone knows that Peter Jackson will use black magic to resurrect J.R.R. Tolkien to play the role!
• Additionally: Fran Walsh will play Goldberry.
  • Jossed.

The Movie of The Silmarillion is on the way.

No apparent reason, but it'd make just a bit of sense that more of Middle-Earth would follow The Hobbit, and adapting the very Mythopoeia of Middle-Earth would be a pretty cool way of doing that.

• Considering that The Silmarillion is even more complex and complicated than the other books, trying to film them would be difficult unless you did a ton of Adaptation Distillation. Although, that said, a film on The Children of Húrin would be pretty sweet.
• Or Beren and Lúthien. Really, The Silmarillion being adapted as a whole would be nearly impossible, but there are several chunks of it that would make excellent movies. Of course, they'd need the Tolkien Estate's say-so on it, since it's not part of the rights already sold, and Christopher Tolkien's never been exactly what you'd call a fan of film adaptations of his father's work.
  • Christopher's son Simon (Tolkien's grandson), however, is a huge fan of Peter Jackson's Middle Earth films. He went against his father's wishes and offered to assist the filmmakers (causing a rift with his father for many years - they only recently reconciled). Just give it another generation, and the younger Tolkiens will probably be much more open to films.
• The problem with The Silmarillion being turned into a movie is that its plotlines are either insanely long, potentially lasting for thousands of years, or extremely character-centric and usually depressing, which is not what people usually want from a fantasy epic. The few that could somehow perhaps suit for movie adaptation like the story of Beren and Lúthien require a fair bit of background story to understand what's going on, and would still probably baffle the movie viewers: "How is this couple and their dog kicking the ass of the Dark Lord Sauron?!"
• Maybe they'll go down the A Song of Ice and Fire route and make a lengthy TV show. Though hopefully not HBO, or I'm not sure the Children of Hurin would be fit for viewing ANYHWERE.
• At the very least, Howard Shore should do a musical suite for the Silm. I'd love to hear the leitmotifs he'd come up with for Valinor, Doriath, Beren and Lúthien, Melkor/Morgoth, etc.

We'll see Radagast playing with a moth at some point.

Just to retroactively tie into the scene where Gandalf summons Gwaihir in the LOTR movies with the moth's aid.

• Jossed.

There will be a Sherlock Holmes Shout-Out.

With Holmes and Watson both appearing, it's just too awesome not to include.

• Perhaps a Sherlock-esque zoom onto the weak spot of Smaug's underbelly?
  • This does somewhat happen when Bard is shooting at Smaug at Laketown. So, semi-confirmed?
• Does Smaug's No-Sell reaction to the One Ring count?
  • Jossed for the film, but Smaug himself gave a shoutout to the series when he was interviewed by Stephen Colbert .

Alternatively there with be Shout Outs to V for Vendetta and Doctor Who

• Courtesy of Stephen Fry and Hugo Weaving having both worked on the former project together and the latter because Sylvester Mc Coy is playing Radagast the Brown.
  • Jossed.

Tauriel the Elf Warrior-Maiden will be...

All guesses go here.

• A weapons master, who teaches Bilbo how to fight while he stays in either Mirkwood or Rivendell. The role makes sense, but it doesn't impede on the plot, in fact it contributes to Bilbo's character development.
• Most likely she's there to fill various parts where nameless elves do something important, such as discover Bilbo when he flees the Mountain with the Arkenstone. It just makes sense to have more named characters to invoke some sympathy in the viewer, instead of a mass of nameless extras, when things get hairy.
• Replacing one or more of the book characters in their scenes (shooting Smaug, killing the goblin-king...).
  • Both of those specific examples seem really unlikely. Bard's already been cast, and killing Smaug is his big moment. Of the two "goblin kings" in the novel, the Great Goblin is killed by Gandalf well before Tauriel (a Mirkwood elf) would be introduced, and Bolg is killed by Beorn, who's also definitely in. I would assume the "combine the roles of several background wood elves into one, more important, character) guess is more accurate.
• Head of the Elven Guard of Mirkwood [1]. She and Legolas help save the dwarves from the spiders in Mirkwood. Pictures of one of the future Lego sets (that they created before the two movies were split into three) shows them saving Fíli and Kíli [2]. However, Lego sets aren't always perfectly accurate; for example, Iron man was included Lokis Cosmic Cube Escape set. However, if it is accurate it begs the question: are Legolas and Tauriel stealing Bilbo's light in one of his bravest and most heroic scenes from the whole book. This scene was seriously the turning point for Bilbo's character when he ceased being a whiny hobbit and became a character who actually DID things. You can see the other Hobbit sets, at least one of which is not yet revealed, here for a closer look at the movie than even the trailer reveals.
  • However, one of the production blogs shows one of the dwarves yelling 'they're coming back' while they are in Mirkwood. This would imply therefore that the sequence of events is 'dwarves get caught by spiders—>Bilbo saves them—>spiders return to finish them off—>Elves show up to drive off the spiders'.

Both versions of Chapter 5 (A Riddle in the Dark) will appear.

Since it is being told by Bilbo and Gandalf as a framing device, Bilbo will narrate the original version from the book, in which he wins the Ring from Gollum as a gift. Then he will be corrected by Gandalf, who will make him tell the "real" version that was retconned later.

• Jossed. Only the "Real" version appears.
• Perhaps in one of the sequels (or the retconned LOTR) Bilbo will tell the Dwarves and Gandalf the other version.

Thranduil will pull of some fancy acrobatics during the Battle of the Five Armies

Because Legolas had to have got it from somewhere.

• According to his actor, Lee Pace in Peter Jackson's eighth vlog, he had to learn to move in an inhuman manner, which does indeed sound like he's going to do some cool stunts.
  • Mostly-jossed. Thranduil's most impressive act is to have his moose scoop up several orcs, then decapitate them all in one swing, but the rest of the time he sticks with non-acrobatic sword swings.

Peter Jackson made certain dwarves "hot" to ensure maximum emotional turmoil in fangirls.

Because as those of us who have read the book know, Thorin, Fíli and Kíli will all be dead by the end of the story. There's no way it coincidental that they in particular have been made attractive for the female audience.

• Well, it's not coincidental. Fíli and Kíli are Thorin's nephew's, so it's not surprising that they look similar
  • If that was his plan, one need only look on tumblr to observe that it is working like a charm.

Kíli shaves his beard because he's a Dwarven equivalent of an emo teen.

He's going to be all rebellious and moody, and questioning the Dwarven traditions. He tries to keep himself clean shaven for the shock effect, but he grows a stubble in the matter of minutes no matter what he does.

• This seems unlikely. One of the other actors mentioned in the third production vlog that Kíli's Perma-Stubble is because he's still too young to grow an actual beard.
  • But isn't Ori mentioned to be the youngest dwarf? He has a decent beard, nonetheless. And anyway, I've always thought that dwarves are born with whiskers and develop full beards before puberty.
    • Ori is the youngest in filmverse; Kíli and Fíli are the youngest originally, with the rest being mature adults.
    • The fact that the camera panned to Ori when the Goblin King mentioned that they start with the youngest has caused great confusion from the fans of the books because Kíli is actually the youngest. It could be assumed that Ori's look of horror was from him being one of the youngest dwarves.
    • The Goblin King pointed right at Ori when he said "youngest", but he may have been operating on preschool logic: Ori's the shortest, therefore he must be the youngest.
• He's an archer — for optimum bow and arrow use, having a lot of facial hair doesn't make a lot of practical sense.

A young Aragorn will make an appearance in Rivendell

Based on the timeline, he should be a young child (possibly ten?), currently living in Rivendell with his adopted father Elrond. Perhaps this is where he and Bilbo will strike up their friendship.

• There has been some speculation among the serious fandom about the timelines of the movies, since Peter Jackson cuts a decades long section from The Lord of the Rings out on the basis that nothing important happened at that time. If The Hobbit has its timeline fixed while retaining Aragorn's canonical age, mentioned in the extended editions, then he would already be a young adult at the time of the movie and would no longer be in Rivendell, but out in the North learning to be a Ranger.
  • Yes, actually, the math is insanely accurate. In the extended edition, Aragorn says he is 87. The adventure in the hobbit begins exactly 60 years before Bilbo's 111th birthday party in LOTR. The most recent story summary I saw on The Hobbit movie confirms that this is still true, despite the amount of time cut out at the beginning of the LOTR movie. According to the Appendix A in The Return of the King, Aragorn was born in 2931. Now if you take Aragorns age in LOTR and subtract 60 years you get 27. If you look up 27 years from Aragorn's birth in Appendix A (2958), you find that it is a year after Aragorn leaves on "his great journeys and errantries for 23 years. It is during this time that he rides to war with Éowyn's grandfather as is mention in The Two Towers. In the books, this is much time after The Hobbit and much time before he searches for Gollum with Gandalf (which actually took place 8 years after Bilbo's party). But if we ignore all that, they could make it so that during the third movie, Aragorn (and possibly Legolas!) is sent by Gandalf to go find Gollum in order to determine if Bilbo's Ring is actually the One Ring. I think this is too much of a distraction from the main plot of the movie and begs too many questions about what happens in the 60 years between the two trilogies, especially since they never included the part where Legolas brings news to the Council of Elrond that Gollum has escaped from the Elves. However, I suspect that most of the extra filming that will done for the third movie will be about the War of the Dwarves and the Orcs in which Thorin, Thráin, and Dáin II fought Azog, father of Bolg who will appear in the third film.
  • Aragorn is mentioned by Thranduil at the end of "Battle of the Five Armies," and advises Legolas to seek him out.

The Lord of the Rings will be Retconned after The Hobbit trilogy is completed

Like Star Wars before it, The Lord of the Rings will be updated to match some of The Hobbit or to include information that is relevant to The Hobbit (or not relevant) but was left out of the original films for the sake of time or the understanding of the viewer. This may or may not be hated by the fans of movies because it may or may not be more faithful to the books. Submit guesses of future changes here:

• If the wargs are updated to look more like wolves than hyenas for The Hobbit, they may be changed to look the same for LOTR.
  • Or the wargs in The Hobbit are a different breed from the ones we see in LOTR.
• Legolas may announce to the Council of Elrond that Gollum has escaped from the elves if (see WMG entry on Aragorn above for more info).
• Glamdring will glow in the dark when Orcs are near. However, Glamdring and Orcrist don't appear to be glowing the the Hobbit trailers, either.
• The Battle of Dale, Mirkwood, and Lórien will be filmed since the viewers will now know and care about King Dáin II Ironfoot, King Brand son of Bard, and Thranduil the Elvenking.
• Radagast the Brown could appear around the time when Gandalf is going to Saruman, thus playing the part he had in the book.
• The scenes in the Old Forest and the Barrow Downs with Tom Bombadil, Old Man Willow, Goldberry, and the Barrow-Wight may be included between Buckleberry Ferry and Bree.
  • All this is highly improbable because these scenes were removed from the movies, because they would ruin the pacing of the story in visual format. Glamdring does not glow in The Hobbit, so change in that department is unlikely, as well.
  • Also Old Man Willow was already featured in the extended version of The Two Towers. But it's possible Tom Bombadil, Goldberry and the Barrow-Wight may appear in the sequel, during the Dwarves and Bilbo's trek across Mirkwood. Additionally, Tom will find out about the Ring, and there'll be a scene which Bilbo uses the Ring and Tom can still see him. And there'll be new dialogue in the retconned LOTR which Tom is mentioned as a potential Ringbearer.

A brief glimpse of the lives of the Dwarves in Ered Luin will be shown

Based on the character summaries that have been released for the dwarves, I think they will show a little bit of this, at least in flashbacks. I think we will see a young, nearly beardless Gimli yearning to go with his father on an adventure, despite being younger than even Fíli and Kíli. We will also see Glóin's "beautiful wife" with her "fine beard." I think we will see something of Nori's trouble with the Dwarven "authorities" (shouldn't that be Thorin?).

• Alas, Jossed. Such scenes would have been difficult to attach neatly to the narration, however.
  • However, it is possible that the the Dwarves of Ered Luin will show up at the end of There and Back Again, returning to Erebor. It would be touching to see Glóin reuniting with his wife and almost beardless son.
  • Jossed.

The movie will have a huge broken base, beyond the small arguments over length, or frame rate.

Jackson and co. will try to shoot for something that fits in with the Lord of the Rings trilogy, adding stuff written after the fact to be closer in tone. A large part of the fan base will declare the movie too kiddie and not nearly dark and gritty enough to match the original trilogy. Book fans will decry the movies as being too far tone shifted from the original.

• Confirmed, sadly.

Azog will become part of a Big Bad Ensemble with Smaug and the Necromancer, up to being the lead antagonist for the battle of five armies.

Clearly, if we were done seeing Azog, they would have killed him at the end of Unexpected Journey. Bolg will end up being The Dragon, while Azog is going to be the mastermind behind gathering the Goblins and Wargs to attack at the end of the third film.

• Azog is personally selected by the Necromancer to lead his armies and commands them during the Battle of the Five Armies, while Bolg eventually leads an assault force from Mount Gundabad.

Old Bilbo will narrate every part of The Hobbit.

He will begin The Desolation of Smaug with the history of the Seven Rings given to the dwarves as foreshadowing to the fact that the Ring that was in possession of Thráin, Thorin's father will have found its way to the Necromancer's hand. It will probably be the obsessive collecting of the remaining Rings of Power that clues Gandalf in on the Necromancer's true identity in the first place. And in the flashback we may see Sauron in his fair form as Annatar, the Lord of Gifts, giving the Seven to the dwarf-lords.

• Jossed. Bilbo only narrates the opening of the first film.

Saruman will use mind control for heroic purposes at some point of the trilogy.

In Two Towers Gandalf comments how snaring the mind of another is an old trick of Saruman's. We could see it being used for more benign ends, for example in the eventual siege of Dol Guldur, where Saruman could possess an orc to attack its fellows, or something similar. Not only would it make a good allusion to the previous trilogy, but it would also emphasize the fact that Saruman's powers revolve around the subjugation and control of others, foreshadowing his turn to evil.

• Gandalf does say in The Two Towers that "it is an old device of Saruman," referring to his enslavement/poisoning of Théoden's mind.
• Jossed.

Bilbo will actively participate in the Battle of Five Armies.

At first he'll refuse to participate in the battle between the dwarves, elves, and humans over the dwarfs' gold.

• Quite likely. Bilbo passing out in the battle like he does in the book would be a big anti-climax. I expect him to fight on Thorin's side in the battle.
  • Confirmed. Bilbo warns Thorin about the approaching army from Mount Gundabad and takes out a few orcs before Bolg knocks him out..

Azog did die, but the Necromancer brought him to life.

And for what purpose? There are hundreds of other orcs where that one came from. This one had a personal vendetta against Thorin... a mere common man, who's hardly worth a fraction of a second in Sauron's thoughts.

• Well, Azog was a powerful orc warlord... but Sauron can control plenty of orcs without needing middle-men, so there still doesn't seem much point. Besides, all undead in both the books and movies—the Nazgûl, the Barrow-wights, the Oathbreakers, the phantoms of the Dead Marshes—are very obviously spectral beings that are no longer part of the living world. Azog in the movie looks and acts pretty much like he did in the flashback, except with a metal claw to replace his missing forearm. There's only one person in the entire world of Arda that can bring the dead totally back to life, and that's Mandos, the honest-to-Eru god of fate and death, and even he's not supposed to (Beren and Lúthien were the only people he broke the rules for). If Sauron could bring his minions totally back to life, Middle-earth would be in his pocket already, Ring or no Ring.
• Besides, if Azog died and was brought back to life, it would make sense that he would have a new hand in the process.

Thranduil refused to help the dwarves not because he was being selfish but because he couldn't risk the lives of his people.

At this point in time, Thranduil and the rest of the Mirkwood elves had been actively fighting against the darkness that was taking over Mirkwood for nearly two thousand years. The elves were already risking and losing their lives in their fight to keep the borders of their home from shrinking any more. So my guess is that when it was said that he wouldn't risk his people it wasn't because he was being a selfish jerk who was unwilling to help, but because he could see a losing battle and how many warriors he would lose if he helped. Mirkwood just wouldn't be able to bear such losses. Just to put things into perspective for a moment.

• Except that in Peter Jackson's compressed timeline evil power has only just now settled in Mirkwood, it actually just became the Mirkwood during the movie. Ofcourse there's still the question of even an elven army could take on a dragon head on, and if Smaug would take vengeance on their home if they failed.
• I would simply assume that Thranduil knew that huge numbers of his people would get slaughtered if they went against Smaug, that their odds of actually killing him were low, and that it was a risk he wasn't willing to take for a kingdom that had already been essentially destroyed.
• He could still have helped the survivors with food, shelter, and the like, much like he did with the Laketown survivors in the book (that could even make a plotpoint, Thranduil helping the Laketown survivors, either symbolizing character development for him, or further justification for Thorin's grudge against him). It might have been overly optimistic of Thorin to hope that Thranduil would aid the dwarves in fighting back against Smaug, but his grudge isn't entirely unreasonable if you take into account what the elves could have done to help, but seemingly didn't.
  • It's possible that the elves did try to give such aid, but the dwarves were too proud to accept. On the other hand, it's also perfectly possible that Thranduil felt that the dwarves were responsible for the dragon's attack and brought danger and ruin far too close to his own kingdom, and refused any aid as retaliation for this offense.
  • In any case, in the second movie the dwarves will visit Mirkwood and be captured by the elves. I'm sure that the incident will be explained in greater detail then.
  • The second film reveals that Thranduil himself was horrifically burned by another dragon in a past encounter, so was well aware how much damage Smaug could do to his people if he intervened.
  • The third reveals that his wife was killed by orcs while, as script notes state, protecting Legolas, and thus has been implied that he refuses to let anyone else die. His main focus if probably on his son here. Not that it did their relationship any good.

Thranduil will imprison the dwarves in The Desolation of Smaug because he knows what they plan to do.

In the book he simply imprisoned them because they were trespassing in his kingdom and refused to explain themselves. But in the movie he should know full well who Thorin Oakenshield is and what motivates him, seeing that it wasn't difficult even for the Goblin King to figure this out. But he's not going to idly sit by when some foolish dwarves go and wake up a sleeping dragon, and unlike Elrond or Saruman, he's not going to settle for mere stern advice, either, when his own kingdom is potentially at stake. So he locks the dwarves up until they give their word to turn back home and never approach Erebor again, which they of course refuse to do.

Smaug may defy Sauron rather than work for him

• Gandalf mentioned that he fears that Smaug may help Sauron if he ever returns. There is a possible different scenario. What if Smaug and Sauron fought each other? Let's see, Bilbo will be there, in the Dragon's lair, with the One Ring. He doesn't know it, he thinks it's just a common magic ring, but it's The One. Smaug may easily kill Bilbo if he wanted to, but the Ring would stay intact among Bilbo's ashes, and call for Smaug. And unlike a mere hobbit named Sméagol, Smaug can take full advantage of the ring, and became a new Dark Lord. With only his base power as a Dragon he could not defy Morgoth, but with the power of the Ring, he can defy Sauron. Sauron would eventually go after him (Gollum would escape, seek the ring, got captured and tortured, etc), but this time the trail would not lead to a peaceful village in the countryside, but to the lair of a powerful dragon. And what then? All the forces Sauron had shown to have at his disposal (riders, orcs, trolls, siege weapons, Oliphants, even the giant spider) may be useful to spread terror among tiny houses in the countryside, or even a fortified city, but do not stand a chance against a dragon. That army of orcs that fills the horizon and left Denethor full of despair... Smaug can get rid of it in just a single attack (or perhaps a second and third one, to get rid of any survivors, but no more than that). And of course, Smaug would not die as in the book The bird that tells the men of Dale to point to Smaug's single weak point is unlikely to help soldiers who are as evil as Smaug. Smaug vs. Sauron. Who would win? And what would the good guys do about that fight?
  • Smaug only has that one weak point, and while Sauron and his forces may not know about it, it seems to me it would only be a matter of time before some Orc got lucky and hit him there. Between armies of orcs, Uruk-Hai, Olyphants, Nazgûl, Fell Beasts, Trolls, Wargs, Spiders and whatever else Sauron could come up with, they'd eventually nail Smaug though with heavy casualties. Sauron, on the other hand, cannot be killed without destroying the Ring. The good guys would probably be totally screwed as the battle would annihilate Middle-Earth and there'd be very little they could do about it. I guess they might try to kill Smaug first and take the ring, because once Sauron had it they'd just be totally boned. Smaug on the other hand would probably just be happy if he could keep the ring and nap in a giant pile of gold, so if he did somehow win it would be less damaging to the world.
  • Would Smaug really even want to be a Dark Lord? The only dragon in Middle-earth history who really tried to set himself up as an Evil Overlord was Glaurung, after all—most dragons seem more interested in possession and destruction for their own sakes than domination, and Smaug never gave any indication of being an exception (after all, he routed out all the dwarves and men in the vicinity of Erebor and made no move to gather orcs, corrupt men and dwarves, or any other form of minion). If Smaug realized what the Ring was, I think he'd be more likely to keep it as a trophy than use it as a weapon.
  • Sauron was most likely to offer to double or triple the gold and treasures Smaug (his one weakness just like Thrór's it looks like seeing how berserk he gets and goes into a murderous rage when Bilbo swipes a plain bronze cup) had in order to gain Smaug's usage in the upcoming war once he had the strength to shed his Necromancer appearance, who's to say that wasn't one of his plots since he tried to get the Dwarves to join them and offered them the return of the Dwarven rings in return for their allegiance and if he had Smaug he would've been invincible even if the ring was never found. Compared to him, the Fell Beasts are mosquitos. Fridge Brilliance really comes into play as well when you think about it cause if the Dwarves hadn't retaken the Lonely Mountain and Smaug hadn't died as well as the loss of many Goblins including their leaders, the Fellowship of the Ring would've failed cause Sauron's forces had to be divided up with the fighting in Gondor and in Erebor and Dale. If they hadn't they never would've gotten within one hundred miles of Mordor.
  • Tolkien himself discussed the issue in the foreword to The Lord of the Rings books: what if another Maia (for him it was Saruman) either got the One Ring or somehow managed to build himself a Great Ring to confront Sauron. His given answer was this would ignite a great war, between two major powers ruling over hosts of Men, Orcs and other creatures, which would destroy Middle-Earth from end to end, and the first race to go would be the Hobbits —"both sides would have hated and despised the Hobbits, so they were not going to survive even as slaves". He was never going to write anything on this line, as the Hobbits were central to the plot, meaning to show how lesser beings not skilled in magic or combat may defeat a great power.
  • Also, if Smaug were to reduce Bilbo to a pile of ash while he had the Ring, he'd destroy the Ring as well. Dragon fire is mentioned in "Fellowship of the Ring" to be the other thing that would destroy the One Ring. But then, with Sauron gone, the rest of the theory could proceed.
  • Actually, though dragon fire can destroy the lesser Rings of Power (and did destroy several of the Seven), Gandalf believes that no dragon alive (and likely no dragon ever) was powerful enough to actually damage the One.
    • Yes, you're right. I looked it up and this troper stands corrected :)
    • Fëanor could probably unmake the One. But that would make the quest to Mount Doom look like a stroll to the Green Dragon by comparison.
    • Well, Fëanor isn't a dragon, so the idea still stands. Besides, even if you somehow did get the Ring to him in Mandos, he's absolutely the last person in Arda you'd want in a hundred miles of the thing. Though he's likely one of the only people in history who could resist the direct corruption of the One through sheer contrariness, the idea of him potentially studying it, reverse-engineering it, and making his own falls squarely into "do not want" territory.
  • One thing is sure: Sauron would not be able to "buy" the Ring. First, because of the unlimited ambition of Dragons: if the Ring is the sole thing that Sauron wants more than anything in the world, so much that he would give him a second treasure as the one of Erebor, then he can duplicate the pay... and if he can duplicate it, he can quadruplicate it... and so on, and so on, until we get to the point "Mordor does not have that amount of gold", end of negotiations. And second... it's the ring. It's the "precious". In all the history of Middle Earth, only the selfless Bilbo was capable to let it go. Smaug would NEVER let it go. Perhaps he's not interested in being a Dark Lord for commanding others, but he would certainly upgrade himself to a Dark Lord level of power in order to fight Sauron and keep the ring. Just think, what would Gollum do, if he was powerful as a dragon?

Saruman's disapproval of Radegast's and Gandalf's 'habits' may be a sign of Sauron's manipulations

• In both stories, Saruman gives a strong disapproval of his fellow wizards' tastes, Gandalf of pipeweed and Radegast of mushrooms. The somewhat odd thought that popped into this troper's head is, "What if the use of such substances fogs any attempt to control a wizard?" Saruman may be a teetotaler, but what if his disapproval is a subtle sign of Sauron's control over him rather than his own personal distaste? He complains of their usage, not just because they're dirty habits, but because of his puppeteer's inability to manipulate them as well?
  • There is one minor hint partly against this: wonder why Pippin and Merry found pipeweed in Orthanc (high-quality pipeweed, at that)? Tolkien intended to hint that Saruman has picked up the habit (indulging it in secret), as part of a tendency to secretly envy Gandalf and just generally keeping a close look on the Hobbits Gandalf so adore.
  • Jossed. Saruman did not treat Radagast that way because of being evil, but just because of being a dick.

Bolg's Role

• I've been wondering what role exactly Bolg will play in the film trilogy—considering that in this version Azog survived the War of the Dwarves and Orcs and still carries a vendetta against the line of Durin, it might be easy to assume father and son became one Composite Character, but Bolg has been cast and his design shown. I see two options:
  • Azog will lead the orcs at the Battle of Five Armies, with Bolg acting as his father's Dragon, or...
  • Azog dies in the second movie (most likely he'll pursue the company into Mirkwood and be killed there, be it by the dwarves, the spiders, or the wood-elves) leaving Bolg to take up the blood feud in the third movie, leading the orcs at the Battle of Five Armies.
  • One possibility for Azog's extended survival is that he might get killed by Dáin Ironfoot in the Battle of the Five Armies, and this gives him the claim to the throne in the end. It would be a neat way to avoid making the character look like an ursuper who just takes over with his army while the Company is quietly pushed aside.
    • Why usurper? Dáin is the next surviving male relative in line for kingship.
    • In the story yes, but I'm talking about the viewer perceptions. When some guy just walks in with an army and is suddenly the king, while the Company you've been following the whole trilogy gets pushed to the sidelines, many people are going to form negative opinions about the guy unless you build him up to be a cool badass in his own right. Incidentally, Fíli and Kíli are also in the line of succession.
    • Hence "next surviving male relative". And after Dáin and his son Thorin Stonehelm there's Balin, Dwalin, Óin and Glóin.
    • And many viewers might wonder why none of the latter four are elected king instead of the former, after having followed them for three films. Whereas "king by birthright" usually works as far as main characters go, when applied to characters that enters the story at a later stage to claim the throne (instead of a more prominent character doing so), it does carry the risk of the audience reacting negatively to the character; Dáin needs an impressive deed to his name to justify him claiming the throne ahead of the dwarves we will get to know during the course of these films. Having Dáin end Azog would be such a deed, in addition to allowing Dáin to perform his arguably most impressive canon feat, just in different circumstances.
    • I've seen a little bit of this already myself: People who've only just read the book after seeing the first movie already resenting/hating Dáin. If it's already happening with people like that, imagine people who will be watching it all unfold on film without having any clue it's coming? Especially because the first film made it a point to have an exchange between Thorin and Dwalin about Dáin already. (And how he refused to help with the quest). So yeah, he's going to need some impressive on-screen achievement so that, while people may not love him, they can at least accept his claim to the throne, even if he did come in at the 11th hour of the story and did so.
  • My WMG? Thorin will kill Balog — who WILL act as his father Azog's Dragon — during the Battle of Five Armies. Then Azog will mortally wound Thorin in retaliation, also killing Fíli and Kíli in the process as they try to protect Thorin. However, the three of them — Thorin, Fíli and Kíli — will have done enough damage to Azog for Dáin to be the one that finally finishes Azog off.
    • Beorn killed Bolg in the book, and the DoS has established that he does has a score to settle with Azog's clan.
    • Thorin and Azog kill each other, bearing out the characters' Moby Schtick overtones. Beorn gets his payback by rampaging through Bolg's army.
  • Bolg leads the armies from Mount Gundabad into the battle, kills Kíli, and then is killed by Legolas.

Gandalf will face a Sadistic Choice in There and Back Again

• As we know, in the book Gandalf appears to Erebor seemingly out of nowhere to everybody's surprise, including the reader's. There has to be a way to emulate this effect in the film, but since we get to actually see his side of the story, it will be more difficult to arrange. This is how I predict it will happen: Gandalf will learn, most likely through Radagast, that elves, men and dwarves are about to go to war against each other right over Smaug's gold just as the White Council is getting ready to storm Dol Guldur. He is faced with a dilemma of whether it is more important to defeat a force of evil, or save essentially good people from falling to evil in the first place. Saruman will be openly contemptuous to fools who would fight each other when the true Enemy is at their doorstep, Elrond will grimly accept that there is nothing that they can do, Radagast will be hesitant and unwilling to voice an opinion and Galadriel will remind Gandalf to follow his own heart, but be aware that she must stay to fight the Necromancer. We will be left with Gandalf standing indecisive and lost between the choice to either fight evil or save innocents. Only when he appears to Bilbo seemingly out of nowhere, we will know for sure what choice he made in the end.
  • Jossed.

In The Desolation of Smaug, Thorin will teach Bilbo how to properly wield Sting

After his pitiful display of just waving Sting to make Gollum and the orcs back off, it's quite a stretch to imagine Bilbo killing a bunch of spiders with it. Chances are Thorin will act more like a Big Brother Mentor and, maybe with the help of Fíli and Kíli, give Bilbo fencing lessons so that he can properly defend himself.

• Jossed.

Bilbo's banishment from Erebor will be a Tear Jerker

Thorin and Bilbo seem to be developing an Odd Friendship and Bilbo may even act as Thorin's conscience during the initial conflict between the dwarves and the men of Dale. Bilbo giving the Arkenstone to the men of Dale and the elves of Mirkwood will then be a difficult decision for him to make (also his hesitation and regret may smooth over any Broken Aesops found in the original text) and Thorin's fury will be directed at Bilbo more for his betrayal of their friendship than of the loss of the Arkenstone.

Sauron manipulated Thrór's "gold madness" through his Ring of Power.

"Seven to the Dwarf Lords", and Thrór's was the last to fall into Sauron's hand. Sauron "tweaked" Thrór's disposition to set up an environment that would attract Smaug. Thus the 7th Dwarven Ring of Power was inherited by Thráin and left the stronghold; where Sauron could acquire it.

• Half true and not: It's canon that Sauron was competely unable to influence the dwarven kings through the Seven (hence why he tried to recover them), but the Rings independently caused them to become more obsessed with treasure.

The Hobbit: There And Back Again will end very similar to the original book and Fellowship of the Ring

Upon leaving Bag End during the party, Bilbo will run into Balin and several of the remaining dwarves and they'll journey off together singing the Misty Mountains song.

• If this movies followed the timeline of the books, this may have been possible. However, in the movie timeline, Frodo leaves the Shire only a couples weeks or months after Bilbo leaves. Also, the Fellowship doesn't appear to stay in Rivendell for very long. If Balin appeared to escort Bilbo to Rivendell after his birthday party, this would only give him a few months to return to Moria, set himself up as the Lord thereof, and then have the entire party die from the Watcher in the Water, the Balrog, and the orcs. Possible, but unlikely.

• Fellowship mentions three to five dwarves coming to Bag End and leaving with Bilbo after the party. Based on who is alive in both the movie and book timelines, the most likely candidates are Bofur, Dwalin, Glóin, and Nori/Dori. If anything, it might end up being Glóin and Gimli escorting old Bilbo to Rivendell. It would be a very bittersweet way of ending the trilogy, but perfectly canon.
  • Jossed.

"Azog" will turn out to be Bolg all along.

The real Azog was killed by Thorin, just like the dwarves thought. The dwarves are just mistaking Bolg for Azog at the moment because he looks so similar to his father.

• Except that we've seen pictures of Bolg, and he doesn't look enough like his father to be mistaken for him. Also, this theory would require Bolg to have sustained an identical injury to his father.
• Do we know anything about Bolg's role in the movie, more than just the detail that he will appear? Perhaps it won't be Jackson's sled, he will be just another orc of the lot, and the "Azog" we saw outside of flashbacks was really Azog's son all along, as pointed by OP. It would be unexpected for the audience, and yet make sense. As for the hand... he's an orc. He can easily had lost his hand at some other combat, as his father did.
  • This would make no sense simply because it would be a pointless complication. How would it change Azog's role in the film in any way? What purpose would it serve? Anyway, Bolg is extremely hairy, played by a human actor and works as a jailor in Dol Guldur, according to published photographs and his action figure stats.
  • If this proposal is used, it would point that Thorin and Azog (or the orc they think is Azog) are not so different (both would be driven by revenge of what had happened to their parents). It would help to provide more depth to the work, rather than the trivial "good vs. evil".
    • It's thoroughly pointless to expect moral complications concerning orcs in this universe. They are mortal incarnations of the absolute evil and have no redeeming qualities. But more importantly, there would be no point because audiences at this point have no idea that an orc called Bolg even exists. To suddenly have Azog declare" I am not Azog! He was my father! Prepare to die!" would be a completely pointless plot twist because there is no kind of investment for the character in place. Furthermore, it was shown quite clearly that Azog did not die, so it would only add confusion to the whole mess. In any case, here is a picture of Bolg. He has zero resemblance to Azog apart from being pale, and is played by a human actor.
    • This, essentially. Had the orc leader been established as Bolg from the beginning, then drawing a comparison between him and Thorin not being so different might have had merit; as it is, what with him repeatedly and emphatically being identified as Azog (he looks just like Azog in the flashback, the Great Goblin says he's Azog, Thorin calls him Azog when he sees him) this kind of bait and switch would serve no purpose and unnecessarily complicate a villain with a straight-up revenge motivation. And again, Azog in the flashback lost his hand. Azog in the present is missing his hand. Why would Azog's son, Bolg or otherwise, have incurred an identical injury?
• Jossed. Azog and Bolg meet face to face in "The Desolation of Smaug.

Ori drew the picture of Bilbo we see at the beginning of AUJ.

We know Ori can write and draw; the book of The Fellowship Of The Ring even mentions that he has excellent calligraphy. Also, Bilbo looks upon the picture quite sentimentally; this would be a little odd if it were merely a picture of himself, bit if it were drawn by an old friend, this sentiment would be quite natural.

Thráin will show up in one of the upcoming movies as the prisoner of the Necromancer.

In the book, Gandalf tells that he got the key from Thráin when he found him in the Necromancer's dungeons. However, in the film, the Necromancer is just rising to power, Thorin says Thráin disappeared in the battle against Azog, and Gandalf doesn't explain how he got the key from Thráin. Gandalf exploring the Necromancer's dungeons and finding Thráin would make a great subplot.

• Confirmed, but only in the extended edition.

The Misty Mountains song will get a Triumphant Reprise in the last movie.

Just like in the book.

• It's likely to be more war-like and grim, rather than triumphant, just like in the book. I can imagine the scene shifting between the singing dwarves and the army from the Iron Hills marching towards war with men and elves to underline the impending tragedy.
  • Jossed.

The Five Armies will be counted differently than in the book.

In the book it's "the Goblins and the wild Wolves, and... Elves and Men and Dwarves". However, the Wargs don't seem to be a separate army in the movie, only the mounts of Azog and the Gundabad orcs. I expect the following roster: the warg-riding Orcs of Gundabad, the Goblins of the Misty Mountains, the Elves of Mirkwood, the Men of Lake Town and the Dwarves of the Iron Hills. Or alternatively, one of the first two may be replaced by the Necromancer and his troops (whoever they will be).

• In the live sneak preview of the second movie that was shown on the internet, Gandalf and Radashast appear to be exploring Dol Guldur and they say the crypts or tombs appear to have been opened from the inside. I suspect that the Five armies will be: 1) Dwarves; 2) Men; 3) Elves; 4) Orcs & Wargs led by Azog or Bolg; and 5) the Necromancer's army including nine Ringwraiths, numerous undead men (perhaps Wights), bats, maybe some spiders, and possibly the Necromancer himself.
  • The Nazgûl can't be present anywhere near the Battle. They would sense the Ring as soon as Bilbo puts it on, which would lead to a very different plot than the LOTR-trilogy would eventually have. Also, having the Necromancer take part in the battle in person would contradict the statement in the Fellowship that he can't yet take a physical form. I am sure that they will retcon the storm and the flocks of bats as his doing, but I doubt that's enough to count as an army. It's within the realm of possibility that we'll have both the goblins avenging their King and the troops of Dol Guldur lead by Azog to make the two evil armies, though.

Gollum will make an appearance in There And Back Again.

The final film of the trilogy is to showcase The Battle of Five Armies and what happened to Bilbo on his trip back right? Well I wouldn't be surprised if it pans back to the Misty Mountains and shows inside his cave with Sméagol on his island weeping over losing the Ring the Gollum side snaps and leaves his cave since the Goblins are gone or mostly wiped out due to the war in an attempt to regain it from Bilbo, showing him hesitating going out into the sun for the first time in five hundred years but his desire for his precious is stronger than his hatred of the sun and begins trying to find The Shire while Bilbo is unaware.

• Jossed.

The Arkenstone is a Silmaril

At the end of the First Age, Maedhros committed suicide by throwing himself in a volcano, carrying one of the Silmarils in his remaining hand. The Arkenstone, found somewhere deep in the ground, shares some similarities with the Silmarils : it has a light of its own, people who see it become obsessed with it, and it seems to bring rather bad luck to its owner.

• The only flaw in this theory is the tendency of the Silmarils to cause burning to those who are unworthy. The greed of the dwarves should have been enough to cause them agony when they touched it. Although, that would explain how pissed Thranduil was upon seeing it.
  • The dwarves are created directly by Aulë, a craftsman himself. They might have the innate ability to handle any jewel without getting hurt. The dwarves of Nogrod are not said to be burned by the Silmaril while encasing it in the Nauglamir necklace, despite having coveted it all the time. And about Smaug, well... how do you burn a dragon?
    • Impalusible. The Silmarils are a BIG DEAL, the most important artifacts in the history of Middle Earth. The One Ring allows Sauron to maintain the power he had in the first age . . . when he was a minor boss monster in the quest of Beren and Luthien for a silmaril. It is however possible that it may have come into contact with a silmaril and still reflect some of its light, much like the phial of Galadriel that was given to Frodo.

Bifur's single moment of dialogue in the books will be played for humour in The Desolation of Smaug

In the book, Bifur cries out that his cousins Bofur and Bombur are trapped down at the base of the mountain when Smaug emerges to attack them. In the film Bifur will most likely be the only one to realise Bofur and Bombur are absent, and will try to make the others aware of this through his sign-language. Expect it to be a humorous moment as all the other Dwarves will assume it's Bifur being his eccentric self and just say: "What's he up to now?" It's possible it might also be a humorous moment between him and Bilbo if Bilbo is the only one available to help him, as Bilbo will not be able to understand Khuzdul.

• Jossed.

In the movies, Thorin has the last Dwarven Ring

The Ringwraith leitmotif playing during Thorin's charge of Azog isn't misused, it's foreshadowing. Thorin's ring is manipulating him, playing on his Fatal Flaw (Pride) to make him get himself killed. They made a point to show Thrór being driven mad with Gold Fever in the introduction, and it gives Thorin more of a reason for the events at the end of the book when he Took a Level in Jerkass and tried to start a war. It also makes Thorin a more tragic figure, since he would have been using the ring to try to found a Dwarven homeland before The Corruption to him. He might even have used it already to help founding their home in the Blue Mountains. There are two more movies to develop Thorin's using his ring as a subplot, and it gives Gandalf a reason to talk about rings with Bilbo while tying the two trilogies together. And finally, it gives a reason for Sauron to become involved in the Battle of Five Armies as we've been told he will be. He's there to retrieve the last of the Dwarven Rings off Thorin's body.

• The 7 Dwarf rings were never able to control the Dwarves, not could it incite them to take any actions. All the rings were able to do was stir up a lust for treasure in their hearts. This would explain Thorin's actions prior to the Battle, but it shouldn't influence him before that.
• Actually the last Dwarven ring is shown in the Extended Edition of Desolation. Thrain had it but when he was defeated by Azog it is implied the Orc cut his forefinger off to get it.

Peter Jackson will Lampshade and explain away the whole Eagles issue

At the beginning of The Desolation of Smaug, one of the dwarves will indignantly ask why the Eagles didn't fly them to the Lonely Mountain and Gandalf will give Tolkien's explanation ^note  the Eagles don't want to be shot down by Men who think they're after their sheep, the Eagles have their eyries to look after and can't be away from their eggs and fledglings, the Eagles are rightfully wary of Smaug and don't want to end up eaten or killed by him, and the Eagles don't have the strength to fly all fifteen of them that far anyway! while Leaning on the Fourth Wall.

• Jossed.

Óin and Glóin's father will be brought up for a joke.

Well, The Hobbit more humorous than its predecessor, so how could Peter Jackson refuse to bring up Gróin the Dwarf?

• Jossed.

Bilbo saving the dwarves from spiders in Mirkwood will end with the dwarves thinking Bilbo is dead

From the production videos/merchandise, we know that all the dwarves (including Thorin) are rescued by Bilbo from the spiders and then during their escape are rescued by the Wood elves, and Bilbo is not with them (thereby avoiding being captured by elves). We don't know if, like in the book, Bilbo will reveal the Ring to the Company and explain how he will distract the spiders or whether Bilbo will, without explanation, run back to distract the spiders to give his friends time to escape. If it is the latter, chances are the dwarves will think Bilbo pulled a Heroic Sacrifice and will think he's dead. This might be further milked for angst if when brought before Thranduil, the elves who were spying on the Company will remark that there were originally fourteen and Legolas or Tauriel will explain where they found the dwarves, and Thranduil will coldly conclude that the fourteenth member was killed by the spiders and ask Thorin why he would risk so much for such a foolhardy quest. This won't endear him any more to Thorin, and Thorin himself will be equally furious and guilty about Bilbo's "death." Cue a happy reunion when Bilbo sneaks into Thranduil's dungeons and reveals to the Company that he's still alive!

• Mostly confirmed. The dwarves don't know where Bilbo is when they're captured by the Wood-Elves, but it's not shown if they believe he's alive or dead. While Legolas and Thranduil sense something moving around the elven palace, the elves are unaware of Bilbo's existence.

Thorin's Gold Fever will cause him to descend into Sanity Slippage

Thorin will slowly become more paranoid and irrational as the siege of Erebor continues, perhaps even lashing out at members of his Company like Fíli and Kíli. Bilbo giving the Arkenstone to Bard and Thranduil will be the last straw and cause him to Freak Out, almost killing Bilbo in the process. Richard Armitage hinted as much in one of his interviews.

• Confirmed.

Kate Winslet will appear at some point

Peter Jackson wanted her to appear in The Lord of the Rings so this is his last chance to cast her in Middle-Earth while also adding more recognizable female characters. She could play Dís, mother of Fíli and Kíli, sister of Thorin and appear at the end for their funerals in Erebor. Or she'll play some random Elf.

• Jossed.

The Desolation of Smaug will end like this:

Gandalf will sneak into Dol Guldur to find out the truth behind the Necromancer, but will fall into a trap and is forced to fight for his life to escape. At the same time Smaug will assault Laketown, possibly directly incited by the Necromancer, as Gandalf fears, but falls to Bard's Black Arrow. Bard seemingly dies in the resulting inferno which takes down what remains of the city. After this climax is over and done with, we cut back to Gandalf who flees for his life, badly wounded, driven by the need to reveal the Necromancer's true identity to the White Council. He gets rescued by Radagast and brought to Galadriel for healing, but is too delirious to speak up. The dwarves huddle in the caves of the Lonely Mountain, uncertain of what is going on, and the people of Laketown stare at the ruins of their homes in despair. The end.

The third film will then start with a flashback of Smaug's assault, now revealing that Bard did survive after all, and then soon cuts to now healed Gandalf inciting the White Council to attack Dol Guldur by force before it's too late.

• Jossed.

Bilbo will refuse his share of the treasure entirely.

Bilbo tells Frodo that he had only one chest and it still smelled of troll. There's no trolls near the dwarves' treasure, so it couldn't refer to anything from the Lonely Mountain. He'll likely just take the treasure that the dwarves found and buried in the troll cave.

• Mostly-confirmed. Bilbo doesn't take anything with him from Erebor, but he does carry the troll-chest when he returns to the Shire.

Balin will find a double-bladed axe in Smaug's hoard and will wield it during the Battle of the Five Armies.

The axe will be identical to the one that Gimli find's in Balin's tomb in the Fellowship of the Ring after the cave troll smashes Balin's coffin that Gimli is standing on.

• Jossed.

The theft of the Arkenstone will go very differently in the movie.

In relation to the "Thorin's Gold Fever will cause him to descend into Sanity Slippage" WMG, the theft of the Arkenstone will go a bit differently in the movie version. Operating on the theory that, in the movie version, Thorin has his grandfather's ring and that it can be caused to indirectly influence the wearer by exaggerating already existing character traits (in Thorin's case, his anger and paranoia), Thorin will grow increasingly irrational as time goes on. Eventually, he will attempt to provoke war with the forces of Laketown and Mirkwood. The other Dwarves, who are very loyal to Thorin but by now have been growing increasingly concerned and disturbed by his change in behavior, agree that something must be done about this. Bilbo, equally concerned, will offer to deliver the Arkenstone to Bard and Thranduil in order to force Thorin to back down and see sense, and the Dwarves will reluctantly agree.

• Jossed. Thorin doesn't directly try to provoke war, and none of the dwarves are aware that Bilbo has the Arkenstone.

There is a reason the Ring world looks different in The Hobbit.

When Bilbo put on the Ring to escape Gollum, the world looks hazy and desaturated. When Frodo put the Ring on in Fellowship, the world looks dark, completely distorted and it seems like there's this violent wind blowing everything around. There's a reason it's different. The Hobbit takes place 60 years prior to the War of the Ring, and Sauron's power and influence were weaker at that time, so the world of the Ring is dormant. When Frodo put the Ring on in Fellowship, Sauron had regained his power and influence and was actively searching for the Ring. The Ring World's more violent because Sauron's presence was more active.

• Note that this isn't the specific "One Ring world". It's the "unseen" world common to all spirits and ghosts of Arda; Elves (especially resurrectees such as Glorfindel) can see this world and fight in it, too. During The Hobbit, this world was relatively calm, and when Sauron was actively struggling to rebuild his empire, it became dark and stormy. That's what Tolkien means when he writes about the shadow falling on Middle-Earth yada yada.

• Confirmed. In the commentary for the extended edition of "An Unexpected Journey," it's said that the ring world is calmer because Sauron hasn't risen to power yet.

There will be a reprise of "Blunt the Knives.

Bilbo established that the Sackville-Bagginses took his silverware. They'll probably mention that the forks and knives are blunted and Bilbo will launch into a reprise of the song, causing the other Hobbits to think he's crazy.

• Jossed.

Legolas's mother (Thranduil's wife) is:

• Dead thanks to spiders.

• Already in Valinor.

• In the back of the caves, busy bedazzling the hell out of all of Thrandy's clothes because they make him look pretty.
  • Legolas tells Tauriel that his mother died in Mount Gundabad.
    • She actually died to protect her son, as script notes to the actor reveal. So this could mean one of two things: one, that Legolas was there when it happened and fought as well, which seems unlikely as he doesn't seem to remember her very well, or two, that he was taken by Orcs as leverage though that would mean they invaded Mirkwood to take him. Rather confusing story.

Appendices

Ever since I learned that the Hobbit movies would be split into three movies in order to include more story taken from the Appendices from the Return of the King, I have been wondering what they will use. There is not much in there that is story material and/or relates to the Hobbit. First, I thought it would be young Aragorn. Then, after the movie came out, and it was revealed that Azog is still alive, I realized much of it would focus on the War between the Dwarves and the Orcs. However, I now would like to speculate that the battles that took place in the North, specifically at Dol Guldur, during the War of the Ring that were left of the Lord of the Rings trilogy and only briefly mentioned in the books will instead be used in The Hobbit movies. Specifically, I believe that Galadriel will use her magic to throw down Dol Guldur and that Celeborn and Galadriel will meet Thranduil after the battle and proclaim that Mirkwood is now the Greenwood again, effectively making it so that the names Dol Guldur and Mirkwood aren't even worth mentioning by the time of the Lord of the Rings. This will either happen after the White Council attacks Dol Guldur (assuming that happens) or after the Battle of the Five Armies.

Saruman's overall arc in the three films

In the books, it's told that at the time of The Hobbit and before, Saruman was already desiring the one ring, and actively impeding the White Council's efforts against the Necromancer in a bid to find the ring for himself. However, in interviews for the films, Sir Christopher Lee has said that we get to see Saruman as a good and noble man in the Hobbit trilogy. Here's how that might work out:

At the time of An Unexpected Journey, Saruman is his basic, neutral self. He's friendly and charming, but prideful and a little arrogant, and doubtful about Sauron's return, which would explain why he seems so obstructive during the White Council meeting. Beginning in The Desolation of Smaug, Saruman hears from Gandalf that the Nazgûl have indeed broken out of the High Fells, he begins to realize that Sauron indeed has come back. Thus, he begins to work on finding a way to stop him. He believes, (as Gandalf said to Galadriel), that only great power can hold evil at bay, and thus eventually comes to believe that the White Council has to take Sauron down by force alone, and that he is the one most qualified to lead such an assault. Realizing that even the combined might of the White Council cannot defeat Sauron, he theorizes that the only way to defeat Sauron for good is to find the One Ring and use it against him. He proposes the idea to Gandalf in Orthanc (when Sir Christopher Lee was revealed at the end of a production video, notice how there's a green-screen window that looks similar to the architectural style of Orthanc), but Gandalf rejects it. Saruman insists, saying that they can bend the ring to their will, (a foreshadowing of Gandalf and Saruman's argument at the top of Orthanc in Fellowship), but Gandalf rejects him again.

At this point, Saruman becomes blinded by his pride. He believes that, as the head of the Istari, he knows best, and that they have to take Sauron by force. He actively searches for the ring, while keeping his quest secret from Gandalf and the others, fearing that they would stop him, and ultimately doom Middle-Earth. Although the Istari are forbidden from challenging Sauron directly, or to dominate the free people by force, he comes to believe that the Valar truly don't know how desperate things are, and figures that he alone is powerful and wise enough to wield the ring, overthrow Sauron, and rule Middle-Earth to keep things under control.

Eventually, the council realizes that they can wait no longer, and mounts their assault on Dol Guldur. Despite not having the ring, Saruman agrees to the attack and joins in it. At one point, he heads alone into Dol Guldur's lower levels, and encounters Sauron directly. After a brief duel, Sauron defeats Saruman and has the option to kill him. But realizing that Saruman could be a useful ally in the future, he lets him go, and leaves Saruman with a palantír, and flees Dol Guldur. While the fortress is destroyed and Mirkwood cleansed, Saruman, realizing that Sauron is far more powerful then he ever dreamed, comes to the conclusion that he cannot best him in a straight-out challenge or duel. Instead, he has to bide his time, and join with Sauron...and then wait until the moment is right to snatch the Ring for himself. But, unknowingly, he has finally crossed the line into becoming evil, but the full results will take another 60 years to come to terrible fruition.

• Jossed for the last paragraph. While Saruman does come face to face with Sauron, there's no indication of any alliance between the two, and Saruman helps Galadriel banish him back to Mordor.

Radagast will help Bard slay Smaug

In the book, Bard the Bowman learns about Smaug's weak spot from a thrush that overhears Bilbo telling the dwarves about it. Apparently, the men of Dale have the ability to understand animals.In the film, there's no implication so far that the men of Dale understand animal talk, so him suddenly doing so would feel like an Ass Pull. However, we're already introduced to a character who understands birds: Radagast the Brown. So it's entirely possible that in the movie the thrush will tell Radagast about the weak spot, who'll pass on this piece of information to Bard.

• This is unlikely, since apparently in the film everyone seems to know that Smaug was hit on his chest by a black arrow, removing a scale.
  • Jossed

Legolas will pull off some badass move during the Battle of Five Armies

• Maybe he'll start out on a hill with Thranduil, kick some giant boulder so that it starts rolling, jump on top of it on ride it down the mountain, back-pedaling to keep his balance and shooting goblins simultaneously. Bonus points if the dwarves react in amazement and if Thranduil lampshades his tendency to do things like that.
  • Confirmed. He forces a giant vampire bat to fly him up to an abandoned tower, shoots it while upside down, rides a troll into destroying said tower, impales an orc by throwing Orcrist, and even runs up falling bricks falling from the fallen tower.

The Epilogue of The Hobbit There And Back Again will be a reunion of the Company

The movie will Flash Forward to old Bilbo leaving Middle-Earth for the Grey Havens and falling asleep on the way there. He wakes up young again to see everyone from the Company alive and young as well. They all welcome him happily. The last person to greet him is Thorin and they smile at each other, finally reunited as friends. Cue Closing Credits. Also works as a nice Mythology Gag to Frodo's reunion with the Fellowship in Gondor in Return of the King.

• Jossed. The last film ends with Old Bilbo meeting Gandalf on the day of his 111th birthday party.

The opening of The Desolation of Smaug will be Bilbo narrating the events of An Unexpected Journey to the hobbit children during his birthday party

It would be a good way to tie the second movie to the first without losing any momentum while still maintaining the spirit of the first. For bonus points, one of the hobbit children will ask why they didn't just fly the eagles all the way to the Lonely Mountain.

• Alternately, Bilbo will be talking with Gandalf at his birthday party and Gandalf will Flash Back to the events of the Desolation of Smaug which was when his adventure fighting the Necromancer began.
  • The opening of There and Back Again will then be Bilbo continuing to write his story while staying in Rivendell and reflecting soberly on the events, shifting the tone of the films to the more serious and tragic finale.
• Jossed

The ending of The Desolation of Smaug will take place in the ruins of Dale

One troubling aspect of the second film is that, if it covers the assault on Laketown, then Smaug would die, and there wouldn't be too much left for the third film to cover (Yes, there's the Battle of the Five Armies and the assault on Dol Guldur, but after the destruction of the series's big bad in the second film, it seems anti-climactic to not have him in the third movie).

However, what if the Desolation of Smaug in the title isn't referring to Laketown, but rather, Dale?

In the most recent video blog, there's footage of Gandalf, Legolas, and Tauriel in the ruins of Dale, with Evangeline Lilly (Tauriel's actress) saying that Dale is essentially "The desolation of Smaug." Therefore, what if the second film doesn't end with Laketown, but with a not-in-the-book sequence of Smaug attacking Dale once again?

Perhaps Smaug, after realizing that the men of Laketown did indeed help Bilbo, and thus, the dwarves, decides to get a little payback and kill them before going after Laketown. Bilbo and the dwarves run to Dale, meet up with Gandalf, Legolas, and Tauriel (the latter having convinced Legolas to help take out Smaug, in reference to them arguing about "It's not our fight/it is our fight" in the trailer), and a big chase happens where they have to try and survive Smaug's onslaught. When Smaug is satisfied that they're dead, he then flies off to Laketown, and the second film ends.

With this theory, Smaug lives to cause more havoc and destruction in the third film, and we may even get to see Gandalf and Legolas take on Smaug themselves! (It may seem odd that Legolas, possibly the best shot in Middle-Earth, doesn't hit Smaug's weak spot, but perhaps he doesn't know it's there).

• If I remember correctly there is actually an area around Erebor called the Desolation of the Dragon, which is what i believe the title is a reference to. Based on the comments of Peter Jackson in Empire magazine and some shots from the latest video blog the climax of the second film will be a new encounter between Smaug and the dwarves, something PJ thought was missing from the book. Personally, I feel that if that means Smaug's death will be left over to the third film that is a good thing, since he is the story's primary antagonist and so should survive to the final film even if he's killed early on in it.

• Mostly Jossed: Smaug does go after the dwarves, but the fight takes place inside Erebor. Dale, Gandalf, Legolas, and Tauriel don't factor into it.

Thorin will be mortally wounded while protecting Bilbo during the Battle of Five Armies

Bilbo will fight in the Battle of the Five Armies, but he will still get knocked unconscious at some point. Just as it looks like Bilbo might be done for, Thorin will intervene, and protect Bilbo's unconscious self, probably even instructing someone — maybe Beorn? — to take Bilbo away to a safer place. However, doing so, gets him severely/mortally wounded in the process. This will be played as a final, yet tragic, redemption for his actions and how he acts towards Bilbo during the Arkenstone business.

• Jossed. Bilbo is knocked out by Bolg and plays no part in Thorin's final fight with Azog.

The newest trailer has been cut deceptively.

The scenes where it looks like the dwarves are talking whether they can trust the Elvenking, they are actually talking about the Master of the Laketown; Thranduil has just been intersected between the shots so that it looks like they're talking about him. It makes much more sense, storywise, and they never mention him by name. Thranduil is most likely offering to help to find Bilbo, who they still assume to be lost in the forest, most certainly not to help the dwarves reclaim their homeland.

• Agreed. Plus, if you look closely at the scene where Thorin says "We are the dwarves of Erebor. We've come to reclaim our homeland" and then Thranduil offers his help, you can see quite clearly that Thorin (with Dwalin and Bilbo behind him) are in Laketown — the same white snow/ash that's falling around Bard later in the trailer is falling around them here; while Thranduil, when saying "I offer you my help" is sitting on his throne in Mirkwood.
• Close. They are discussing whether they can trust Bard. Thranduil does offer them help in their quest, but Thorin refuses.
  • Specifically, Thranduil offers his help in exchange for a cut of the treasure. Since being forced to give up his kingdom's stuff is essentially Thorin's Berserk Button—especially coming from someone he already has a grudge against—it's unsurprising that this would not go over remotely well.

Stephen Colbert will appear in the movie...

... as a bard/singer singing the Lay of Beren and Lúthien. In authentic, well-pronounced Elvish. Because Colbert would.

• Jossed. He's one of the spies in Lake-town.

The scene from the trailer of The Desolation of Smaug where Thorin seems to threaten Bilbo with his sword will be a Hey, Wait! moment

Bilbo will find the Arkenstone and slip it in his pocket, clearly a bit guilty and worried over it. When Thorin approaches and seems very cold and threatening, Bilbo will sweat and about ready to confess he found the Arkenstone...then Thorin will abruptly smile and lead Bilbo off to give him the mithril armor as a gift.

• Jossed.

The One Ring corrupts Bilbo to steal the Arkenstone.

Even in the original book, that scene is slightly uncharacteristic, and is mostly attributed to the near-supernatural allure of the stone itself. But Peter Jackson has promised that the Ring's effects will begin to subtly show on Bilbo as the story progresses, so that would be a nice spot to include a hint that Bilbo isn't quite being himself any more. Later he'll subvert the corruption, of course, by giving the stone away in the name of peace, which explains why he hasn't gone worse in the following sixty years.

• The big "MINE!" in Mirkwood is decent foreshadowing.
• Jossed. There's no indication that the Ring had anything to do with Bilbo taking the Arkenstone.

Thranduil's facial scar isn't covered up by glamour, it's created by it.

Since Elven healing is different than humans, I found it rather odd that Thranduil would have a scar of that severity so long after the wound was given. So I have a theory that the wound really did happen but it healed long ago, and that the scar we see in the movie is more of a enchantment that brings the memory of what it once was back onto his face. Please feel free to dispute this. Tolkien never said an extreme amount regarding Elvish healing, but since Elves are supposed to have better healing than men and they live for thousands of years, scarring being rare makes sense.

• Elvish healing may be greatly superior to human craft, but it still relies on herbs, not stem cells or skin transplants. When fire destroys a large part of your your facial tissue, it doesn't just grow back on its own, no matter how good your doctor is. Elvish healing is probably the only reason why Thrandy is still alive at all, but Scars are Forever.
  • Elvish healing relies on herbs... and magic.
  • We know it can't regrow lost limbs or anything (Maedhros), so it makes sense that a deep burn which involves a lot of lost tissue can't be restored.

Galadriel and Saruman will both have a chance to shine in There And Back Again

The White Council defeating the Necromancer will obviously be shown and it would be a great time to show that Galadriel and Saruman were decent powerhouses in their own right.

• Confirmed. Galadriel and Saruman kick major ass in the assault on Dol Guldur, and Galadriel single-handily blasts Sauron all the way from Dol Guldur to Mordor.

Smaug is aware of the nature of the One Ring... and doesn't care.

He mockingly tells Bilbo his ring is made of gold but "more precious" yet never shows interest in it afterwards which is remarkable for so greedy a being. Smaug is also clearly aware of greater events (its at least implied he knows of Sauron's return: "a darkness is coming"). It's possible that his limitless arrogance and vanity give the Ring no 'purchase' on him — he is so convinced of his own power and magnificence he cannot be tempted effectively.

• There is precedence for creatures of sufficient evil power and magnitude being immune to the Ring's temptation—the book version of Two Towers explicitly states that the Ring has no hold on Shelob, who has no use for such things. It might also be that the Ring (which is intelligent in its own way) knows better than to try and ensnare Smaug in the first place; if he did get his talons on it, it can be said with near total certainty that he'd never use it (for a dragon, the joy comes purely from possessing wealth, not doing anything with it), except maybe to make it a centerpiece of his "collection", and since dragons never voluntarily part with anything from their hoards while alive, the Ring's chances of getting back to Sauron would be almost totally axed, unless Sauron sinks his whole army into killing Smaug and retrieving it (and even ''then'...)
  • Coming into the possession of one of the few things on Arda that's capable of destroying Rings of Power probably wouldn't make the One Ring all that comfortable, either, even if it's pretty sure dragonfire isn't strong enough to affect it.

Elves bind their psychic traumas into a "locked room" in their head; letting it out affects their appearance.

Thranduil's "facial scar" was psychic trauma from fighting dragons long ago. Galadriel's was Sauron's influence on her Ring of Power.

• Well, there is an obscure bit of Tolkien's lore that lends some credibility to this theory. When Elves live in Middle-Earth (rather than Valinor) for too long, their fea (souls) become stronger but their hroa (bodies) more "tenuous" and dependent on the fea. Thus, the soul of a really old Elf kinda "bleeds through" their body and can affect its state, or be seen directly. So, if that Elf remembers some psychic trauma or is overcome by a sudden passion, the state of their fea will immediately affect their hroa, or "burst through" into direct observability.

Tauriel will die alongside Kíli in the final battle.

• Seconded. In addition to Vasquez Always Dies, this troper is betting they're going to kill her to give Legolas a motive to care about other races enough to join the Fellowship, as in DOS, Legolas doesn't seem to care that much about other nations yet, while his love interest explicitly does. Further, this would make him even more of a Mr. Fanservice by adding The Lost Lenore to his backstory.
  • So they're going to stuff her in the fridge?
    • Because anytime a character dies and happens to be female, its Stuffed in the Fridge? Especially when 90 percent of the other characters who die are male???
    • Yep.
  • Jossed. Tauriel survives the battle. Though PJ addressed the issue of races and Legolas "aversion" to them by having him befriend Aragorn off-screen.

Alternately, Tauriel will be exiled from Mirkwood at the end of There And Back Again

• She directly disobeyed Thranduil's orders and is romantically involved with Kíli, a dwarf—one alone would piss him off, but both? Especially considering he took her in? In a fury, he'll forbid her from ever returning to Mirkwood and possibly (depending on Elrond) damn her to Walking the Earth forever. It would be a good way of showing that her actions have consequences, it would remove her from LOTR without stuffing her in the fridge, and it would be a real big Tear Jerker for the audience if she was never allowed to be Together in Death with Kíli.
  • Confirmed. Tauriel is banished from Mirkwood early in the film, but her final scene with Thranduil seems to imply that the relationship between the two softens somewhat.

Tauriel is a foundling.

Her name means "daughter of the forest", a tad generic for a Wood-elf, and this could fit a baby found in the forest. Following that...

• I'd interpreted it as "girl crowned with the forest", with the same second element as Galadriel. Could be saying she's destined to be queen? Or that her hair looked like a thicket?
• Literally, the Elvish "riel" means "circlet" or "garland," but it has been used poetically to describe a woman's hair (hence, "Galadriel" or "Radiant Garland"), so either interpretation is valid.

Tauriel is not a (full) Wood-elf, but instead descended from the High Elf Fëanor.

Red hair was a unique trait of three of Fëanor's sons, and they got it from their mother's side of the family, who never migrated to Middle-earth.

• Quite unlikely, because given Thranduil's backstory with the Feanorians, he would have drowned her into the river if he had suspected such a lineage...
  • Maybe not, though. Legolas specifically states that Thranduil both favored and protected her: why would she need protecting if she was an ordinary Wood-elf? He might have kept her alive out of some science-like curiosity about what she would do, not having been raised around other Fëanorians. It's not like he couldn't kill her if she started showing any of their traits. Peter Jackson is such a Tolkien nerd that the red hair is likely not a coincidence.
• Maybe he does not suspect. Particularly if Tauriel's father is Maglor, the possibly mad, wandering and utterly untraceable surviving Feanorian.
• If she were Celebrimbor's granddaughter (daughter wouldn't work time-wise), that would completely explain why she is gets emotionally involved with Dwarves with such ease. Taking WMG up to eleven, if Narvi was female and she and Celebrimbor were a couple and not just collaborators on the Doors of Durin, she could be Tauriel's grandmother, which would explain Tauriel's short stature. And her strength—note that her bow, minus decoration, is essentially a scaled up Mongol recurve bow, and Mongol bows were already at least equal in power to a longbow (ridiculously more powerful, if you believe some of the people on the internet).
• It is highly unlikely that she has a lineage that goes so deeply into Tolkien lore, especially since PJ created her specifically for a lady's touch. Also, she calls herself a "lowly Silvan elf" and nothing of the sort is every mentioned again. Most likely a research failure by PJ. It goes without saying that Thranduil would have to be unaware of this.
  • PJ is such a Tolkien nerd that that's rather unlikely; it's entirely possible he threw her hair color in as a subtle Genius Bonus for anyone who cared to interpret it that way. Yes, Tauriel calls herself a "lowly Silvan Elf", but Tauriel is also an orphan who might not know otherwise, and Thranduil would hardly tell her so. He himself never refers to her as such — he just doesn't correct her when she does. Given his penchant for Exact Words, that's possibly telling. It would also explain why he doesn't seem terribly surprised when she threatens to shoot him in the head: perhaps he assumes that some things really do run in the blood. It's the only halfway plausible explanation for why she'd threaten any Elf. (That whole scene was the result of Executive Meddling; Jackson is well aware that Kinslaying is a no-no among Elves.) Either she's a descendant of Feanor or she's completely insane, and she doesn't come across as crazy, just young, reckless, and with a wicked case of Love Makes You Dumb.
• Much of the concept art◊ for Tauriel shows her clad in black, a color basically unheard-of for Silvan elves...but a favorite of the Fëanorians.

Tauriel is only Half-Elven.

She's half-Mortal. This would explain:

• Her red hair, which is virtually unheard-of among Tolkien's Elves.
• Her very different personality than the other Mirkwood Elves; she's less aloof and xenophobic, and more willing to see herself as a part of larger world.
  • At least some of the aloof and xenophobic Elves are Sindar, rather than Silvan like Tauriel.
• Thranduil's interest in her. Human-Elf pairings in Middle-Earth are rare, but almost always have world-changing consequences. Thranduil has big plans for her.
  • More than unlikely. If she was there would have been at least an off-hand mention instead of Tauriel calling herself "a lowly Silvan Elf" and Thranduil agreeing to that. Also, PJ could not afford making her that special or he would have risked quite a backlash. Her hair color is probably just a research failure.

Kíli will die in Lake-town.

Since Kíli is still healing, he probably can't move very well. And with a pissed off dragon on the way...Chances are all they'll find will be the rock amulet. This will further drive Thorin's downward spiral and refusal to negotiate with the Elves and humans before the Battle of Five Armies. There will be lots of angst at having condemned his nephew to die by dragon-fire without ever seeing his ancestral home.

• Jossed by interviews and production vlogs in which Aidan Turner has talked about filming the Battle of Five Armies; and that the dwarves who were left in Laketown will make their way up the mountain after Smaug's attack, stopping by the ruined Dale along the way.

Thranduil will befriend Bilbo just like in the book

It would be a good way to show that Thranduil's not all that bad and extreme isolationism and ruthlessness towards orcs aside, he's still a decent person. Bilbo might also inspire Thranduil to not be so greedy and make him gain some perspective on interacting with the outside world.

• Jossed as far as the 2nd film is concerned. The two end up in the same room, but Thranduil has no clue Bilbo is there.
  • Well, Thranduil didn't officially meet Bilbo for the first time until Bilbo came to see him and Bard during the bloodless siege of Erebor, when he goes to give them the Arkenstone in the book. So, canon-wise, Thranduil and Bilbo wouldn't have met at anytime during the second film anyway.
  • Jossed. Thranduil does talk with Bilbo, but it's pretty clear they're not friends.

The mithril armour/vest that Thorin will give Bilbo in the third movie was originally made for Legolas

In the book, Thranduil and Bard both notice Bilbo is wearing elvish armour when when he comes to give them the Arkenstone. A bit later, Thranduil makes this comment to Bilbo: "You are more worthy to wear the armour of elf-princes than many that have looked more comely in it." In the third movie, this line will be expanded upon a bit more, with Thranduil noting that the vest had been made for an elf prince — his son. But — like the white jewels we see in the AUJ EE — the dwarves refused to give it to Thranduil (who would have then given it to Legolas as a gift or something) after it was made for some reason.

• Jossed. Thorin gives Bilbo the vest, but doesn't comment on where it came from or who it was made for.

Stephen Colbert will die in The Third Movie

C'mon you know he's probably begging Jackson to let him be one of the ones killed by Smaug when he attacks Laketown. The look on his face when Smaug breathes fire down onto him will be priceless.

• He doesn't show up in the film, but he may appear in the extended edition.

The opening of There And Back Again will be a flashback of Thorin talking to Bilbo about his family's history with Gold Fever

One of the scenes that was cut from An Unexpected Journey was a conversation between Thorin and Bilbo in Rivendell where Thorin explained his family history and their problem with goldsickness, which was not shown in the extended edition. Much like the opening of Desolation of Smaug, it will serve as foreshadowing of Thorin's Sanity Slippage and lend pathos to the breaking of his and Bilbo's friendship when Bilbo gives the Arkenstone to Bard and Thranduil as leverage and Thorin nearly kills Bilbo when he finds out.

• Jossed

Possible characters that will be Spared by the Adaptation.

• Kíli (Since he is still healing in Laketown)
  • Alternatively, he will be present at the Battle of Five Armies, but Tauriel will die in his place, Taking the Bullet (or Morgul blade or whatever) for him. Then, as some kind of a tragic version of a Mythology Gag, Kíli will remark: "If it weren't for her, I would be dead now."
  • Jossed. Kíli dies.

The Battle of Five Armies will make Legolas less racist towards Dwarves

In The Desolation Of Smaug, Legolas seems pretty racist towards the Dwarves, insulting Gloin's family and calling the Dwarves thieves for possessing Orcrist. In The Lord of the Rings, he isn't as racist towards Gimli. Fighting alongside the Dwarves in the Battle of Five Armies will probably make him change his opinion on Dwarves.

• Semi-confirmed. Legolas saves Thorin twice during the battle, but doesn't make a big deal out of it.

Radagast will die in There and Back Again.

• As this site points out, the staff that Radagast uses in The Hobbit is identical to the one Gandalf has in The Fellowship of the Ring. In The Desolation of Smaug, Gandalf loses his staff in Dol Goldur.
• Radagast's "Yes, yes," in response to Gandalf's insistence that he promise not to come back for him was less than convincing. After he delivers his message to Galadriel, he's going back for Gandalf, probably with Galadriel and Elrond alongside.
• His death would add a little extra weight to the White Council subplot. We already know that Gandalf, Elrond, Galadriel, and Saruman make it out of this business with the Necromancer alive. So who's the only viable option left for a demonstration of Sauron's true power?
• It would explain his absence in the LOTR trilogy.
• According to the director's commentary of The Unexpected Journey, the Morgul knife that Radagast took from the Witch-King is the same blade that the Witch-King uses to stab Frodo 60 years later, and that he will take it back at a later point of the trilogy. This seems to lend credence to the theory, assuming that Gandalf is not holding it at the moment. Although the commentary also mentions that PJ thinks that Radagast will slowly forget who he is and why he was sent to Middle-Earth and becomes just a forest shaman or a nature spirit as the time goes by, which would suggest that he does survive, but I wouldn't wonder if he goes through a some kind of mental breakdown in the third film that makes him effectively useless in the War of the Ring.
  • Jossed. Radagast survives the film, and even rides the Eagles into battle at the end.

Peter Jackson's carrot-chewing Cameo character in Bree is descended from Numenorians.

• This is why he is still alive in Fellowship without having aged a day. He may even have as much Numenorian blood in his veins as Aragorn, but is unimportant to the plot, due to not being a descendant of Isildur in direct patrilineal line and all that.

Thranduil in the films is also suffering from Gold Fever or a variation.

• In the extended edition of An Unexpected Journey, Thranduil paying homage to Thror is expanded upon: The dwarves show him and his retinue some piece of incredibly beautiful jewelry worked in white metal and gems, and Thranduil is visibly shaken and obviously greatly desires it—then the box carrying the item in question is slammed shut and taken away from him, and only then does Thranduil angrily storm out. In Desolation of Smaug, when Thranduil is attempting to make a deal with Thorin, what he wants in return is a specific set of jewels like starlight, whose description matches what we saw in the previous film—he considers them to be his and his continued lack of possession of them equivalent to theft. My guess is that whatever that bit of jewelry is, it's screwing with his brain and is behind why he's so much more antagonistic than he is in the book—other characters (namely Legolas and Tauriel) who know him well seem to be discomforted by his behavior and even a little afraid of him, and he appears to be just slightly off, signals to the audience that something is not normal, not right with him. So I figure, if I'm on to something here, that the third film will resolve what Thranduil's problem is, and possibly tie it into the Arkenstone disaster—the Arkenstone was shown to be and repeatedly described as a shining white gem, the jewelry I think is addling/corrupting Thranduil is made from shining white gems, there's room for a tragic misunderstanding in there.
  • Possible variation: Thranduil believes a specific kind of gem can heal his wounds. Alternately, the white gems might have properties that help the wearer create glamour, since hiding his injuries could be a considerable drain on his spiritual energy.
  • Jossed. The companion book reveals that the gems he's after actually belonged to his wife.

The Dwarven Ring is embedded in the Arkenstone

Thrain's Gold Fever started getting out of control after the discovery of the Arkenstone, which ultimately destroyed Erebor. Gold Fever is a known side effect of bearing a Dwarven Ring of Power, which the books established had been an heirloom of the line of Durin (Until the Necromancer stole it from Thror, anyway). Smaug even flat out stated that if he gave the Heart of the Mountain back to Oakenshield it would ultimately drive him mad.

• Probably not, as the Extended Edition showed that Sauron got the ring from Thrain.

The Orc captured by Thranduil and Legolas was bluffing. The "Morgul arrow poison" is bull crap.

Definitely figuratively: no one would issue weapons of dark magic to a mere Orc, and Morgul-weapons were a specifically Nazgul thing; the arrow had a mundane poison on it. But probably very literally: the arrows were just smeared in dung. Its effects are strikingly similar to what was shown in the films: anaerobic bacteria living in dung infect the wound, it does not do any harm immediately, but afterwards, gangrene starts and creeps up, just like a Morgul shard. In a society unfamiliar with antibiotics, there is only one mundane cure: the hack saw. Hence the need for magical Elvish medicine to save both Kíli's life and his leg. Tauriel — a simple Wood Elf as far as we know — would not be able to stop a real Morgul shard, that requires Elrond the great healer, but stopping normal infection, unrelated to Sauron, is fairly within her powers.

Smaug will be present in the Battle of Five Armies.

So far we've seen Peter Jackson isn't afraid of making changes. My guess, Smaug will be Faking the Dead, after the Lake Town battle and damnit Smaug is too awesome a villain to die that early.

• Seems unlikely, because that would change the entire dynamic of the battle from "men, elves, and dwarves who were willing to go to war with each other have to team up in order to keep from being killed by the orcs and wargs" to "everybody has to team up and try to kill Smaug", because he seems unlikely to come in on the orcs' side, and the idea of him helping the Free Peoples is outright ridiculous. Plus, what exactly does he gain from doing this, instead of just destroying Laketown and its people altogether? And finally, the whole point of The Hobbit's climax as I always took it was to subvert expectations about how and by who's hand the Big Bad dies and explore what happens afterward.
• Very, very unlikely, as the second film set up too many threads leading up to Bard killing Smaug as expected. And Smaug got ample opportunity to strut his stuff as a Godzilla-caliber engine of destruction, chasing Bilbo and the dwarves around inside Erebor: he doesn't need to roast armies in the third film to pad his cred.
• Another alternative is that Smaug's first attack on Laketown is somehow thwarted, but he returns to attack it at the same time the Battle of Five Armies is going on. So Smaug doesn't take part in the Battle, but he is defeated simultaneously with it, thus making the climax of the third movie bigger.
  • Jossed. The closest we get is seeing a hallucination of Smaug's tail swimming under the now-hardened pool of gold inside Erebor.

Bilbo has already taken the Arkenstone.

• In Desolation, Smaug declares that the Arkenstone will drive Thorin mad with greed. Also, the scene where Bilbo goes invisible doesn't show what he was doing until he is running away, leaving a window where he could have grabbed the Arkenstone lying a few feet away before booking it. When he runs into Thorin, Bilbo is noticeably hesitant because doesn't want to give him the Arkenstone to keep him sane, something Thorin's unhinged actions suggest is a good idea. In the last film, Bilbo will likely spend some time dithering over giving it to Thorin before deciding to hand it over to the Elves and men instead.
  • Confirmed.

The dwarves didn't think the treasure would be heaped

• In Desolation, the dwarves assumed Smaug would be sorting and categorizing his hoard instead of having it in heaps. That's why they thought Bilbo would be able to find the Arkenstone.

Radagast will save Gandalf

• When last seen Gandalf was caged in Dol Guldur. Radagast might be informed of this by birds and free Gandalf. Potentially Saruman will say they can't take risks by helping Gandalf but Radagast will do so anyway.
  • Perhaps he will give him his staff to replace the shattered one.
  • Confirmed. Radagast goes to Dol Guldur with the other members of the White Council and evacuates Gandalf via his rabbit-sled.

Thranduil will die in Five Armies

• He's going to fight, and he had the argument with Thorin, so the producers could do it for karma
• He's not shown in the LOTR movies, so he can't be Saved by Canon
  • Kind of is Saved by Canon though, even outside of book canon. There's no way that Legolas would have been able to go on the Fellowship of the Ring while being king and since the movies seem to have gone the route of Thranduil only having one kid, Thranduil is saved by the fact that somebody else has to be king during the War of the Ring.
  • Jossed. Thranduil survives.

Thranduil is actually a Shipper on Deck for Legolas and Tauriel, and is attempting Reverse Psychology

• There's something odd about him going out of his way to bring up that Legolas is fond of Tauriel, to tell her not to "give him hope where there is none" when he hasn't seen any indication that she HAS been. He was dropping a hint on behalf of Legolas, then when she responded without showing interest, changed tactics, and agreed with her when she told him she thought he would never allow Legolas to be with a Silvan elf. Note how long he took answering, and if you want to tie this in with the theory on this page that Tauriel is actually not Silvan but a foundling descended from Feanor, remember Thranduil's propensity for Exact Words. If he didn't want them to get together, he probably wouldn't have even mentioned Legolas to her like this in the first place. He certainly wouldn't have pursued the subject and INSISTED that Legolas cares for Tauriel AFTER she'd assured him he thought of her as nothing more than captain of the guard. Because if she hadn't noticed his affections before, she sure will now. Also the actor said that one of the influences for Thranduil was Oberon, and look how he tried to meddle in love affairs and set people up he thought should be together.
  • Going off the "Tauriel is of Feanor's Line" theory, she's certainly grown up into a noble elf-maiden, without any of the propensities for violence that Feanor's line has. In that case, a match between her and Legolas would be great for Thranduil; having a High Elven scion in his family would raise his standing among all the Elves of Middle Earth, and he could claim credit for "fostering" her. The only trouble turned out to be, Feanor's family has a history of problems with authority...

The launching device for the Black Arrows is a Red Herring

As Bard is preparing to fire it, he will realize that the wood is old and rotted from disuse. As Smaug approaches, he will near the Despair Event Horizon . Then he looks down and see his son watching from the bottom of the tower so expectantly for him to do the deed. In desperation, he fits the Black Arrow to his bow...

• Semi-confirmed. The windlace does not appear in the final film, and Bard has to quickly make an impromptu bow to fire the black arrow.

Gandalf had some way of counteracting the gold sickness

When he tells Thorin not to enter the mountain without him, what does he mean? He has powerful magic, yes, but there's very little to be done against a dragon. The whole plan still hinges on Bilbo being sneaky. I think Gandalf had a trick up his sleeve. He had to have known it was a possibility, but he seemed very sure of himself when he talks to Thorin in Bree and again when he discusses it with Elrond.

Radagast will tell Gandalf of Smaug's death

• The book describes the birds spreading news over Middle-Earth and we know Radagast can talk to birds.
  • Jossed.

Not all of Bard's kids are going to survive Smaug's attack on Lake-Town

• Only his son Bain is safe via canon. Either or both of his daughters are expendable. Stuffing them in the Fridge makes it personal for him...and will drive home to the audience that Smaug is a monster that needs to die.
  • Jossed. All of them survive. Bain even helps Bard take out Smaug.

Radagast will become Tom Bombadil

• He will slowly lose his memory, he will forget who he is and why is he at Middle Earth, he will marry Goldberry, sport yellow boots, and sing "Hey dol! merry dol! ring a dong dillo! Ring a dong! hop along! fal lal the willow! Tom Bom, jolly Tom, Tom Bombadillo!"

Azog will fatally wound Thorin but be killed by Dain

• Thorin might have wounded Azog.
  • Jossed. Azog does fatally wound Thorin, but is then killed by him moments later.

When Balin visits Bilbo years later at Bag End, he will mention wanting to retake Moria with Oin and Ori.

• Jossed.

Saruman seeing Narya in the attack on Dol Guldur will prompt his fall

• He will be angry that Gandalf got the ring while he, the Head of the White Council, didn't.
  • Jossed

Tauriel will become the Wood-Elves' ambassador to Erebor.

• Let's face it, she'd be the only one who'd be any good at it, and the Dwarves would be more likely to want to deal with her than any of the other Elves. Anybody Thranduil chose to send would have to go, but she'd probably be the only one who'd want to, and it would handily explain her absence in the later movies.
  • Semi-Jossed. She's exiled in the third film, and though Thranduil does display sympathy for her after Kíli dies, it's not clear whether or not the banishment stuck.
    • It's unlikely it stuck, or she would have gone with Legolas when he went to find Aragorn. Plus, Thranduil upholding her banishment would only alienate Legolas even further, which is the last thing Thranduil would want.

Frodo Baggins is Thorin Oakenshield's re-incarnation

• I think this is self-explanatory; it doesn't require any reasoning behind it.

Tauriel doesn't show up in Lord of the Rings because...

• ...she Faded after Kíli died. Her statement about wanting to have the pain taken away could suggest that she's become somewhat of a Death Seeker, and Tolkien lore states that elves can will themselves to die. If Thranduil upheld her banishment she'd literally have nothing else to live for in the world.
  • Alternately, she volunteered to be among the honor-guard of one of the elven ships that passed into the West, leaving the lands of her grief behind her.

Alfrid is a young Grima Wormtongue, having changed his name after being driven out of his home in shame.

His skill at manipulating his higher ups gets much better over the next several decades, but he always remains a cowardly weasel who latches onto the closest powerful figure to raise his own position, does his best to manipulate those around him, and has no loyalty to anyone but himself. His posture even becomes more and more Wormtongue-like as Bo FA progresses.

• He's too old to be Gríma, and neither were Dunedain.

Radagast was displaying Obfuscating Stupidity to get Sauron to underestimate him.

Alfrid is Rincewind, who somehow ended up in Middle Earth.

• Just look how he is always trying — and failing — to run away from any form of danger!

Alfrid is Grima Womtongue's grandfather.

After fleeing from Dale, Alfrid eventually settles in Rohan and has a son, Galmod, who, in turn, becomes Grima's father.

Alfrid starved to death in the wilderness.

Like the Master from the books, he doesn't seem to get that there isn't anywhere to spend the gold on for miles.

Smaug secretly survives and adventures with Bilbo as detectives.

Smaug was only pretending to be dead after Bard shot him. He secretly survives and moves to the Shire, where he and Bilbo live together, with Smaug assuming a new identity. The two of them become consulting detectives for the Hobbiton sheriff, solve mysteries, and have further adventures. What? Someone had to say it.

"Dragon Sickness" is an internal myth.

There's no such thing. It's just a story Dwarves tell each other to explain the hereditary Gold Fever madness that runs through the line of Durin. It's denial, plain and simple; they can't bear the thought that there's no evil sorcery at work, and that their kings are simply prone to insanity.

Alternately, the gold really is cursed, but by Thror's Ring of Power, not Smaug.

Sauron couldn't influence the users of the Seven and Three directly like he could the Nine, but the rings could cause trouble on their own if not mastered properly. Going by the prologue of the first movie, Thror was consumed by greed long before Smaug came into the picture. It's possible his ring corrupted the gold his people found so that it would consume them, as well. It just so happened that Smaug got caught up in the ring's curse himself and drove out the rest of Erebor's people before they could succumb like their king did.

Tauriel's banishment got revoked offscreen.

Legolas would hardly have gone off to find the Rangers and left her if she was still banished. She probably got to go home, though whether or not she would Fade while there is another matter entirely.

Tauriel is a descendant of Lenwë, the first king of the Silvan elves.

While she does look (red hair) and act (light-based healing magic) somewhat like a Feanorian elf, she says herself that she is Silvan. Still, her formidable skills in combat and magic make it likely that she is royalty. It is known that in the Second Age, the Nandor of Greenwood accepted Thranduil's father Oropher, who was a Sindarin elf, as a king. In the process, their previous king, possibly descended from Lenwë, may have stepped down and become captain of Oropher's guard. It's also known that Lenwë's son, Denethor (not Boromir's father) led a portion of the Nandor to the lands of the Sindar back in the first age. That may explain why a Nandorin elf has healing powers typical for those elves that saw the light of Valinor (which the Nandor themselves did not).

Goblins are corrupted dwarves.

In the books, Orcs and goblins are the same species, but that's not the case in the films. Orcs came from elves who were corrupted by Morgoth, but if goblins are not Orcs, then where did they come from? Like the dwarves, the goblins live underground, prefer to keep to themselves, are greedy, and are rather clever when it comes to building things, so it stands to reason that this is their origin.

Thranduil is at least partly blind.

It's a very popular fan-theory, given that massive facial scar and cloudy eye that appeared while he was talking to Thorin. Lee Pace also plays him as blind, so this is confirmed by the actor's choices, if not a statement by Jackson himself. Fans have also noticed he has a very wide-eyed, unfocused expression and never really makes eye-contact with anyone. It also explains Legolas' often-mocked tendency to state the obvious about his surroundings—of course he'd talk about things that people can already see if he needed to do it for his vision-impaired father. (Fan-art/fic abounds with blind-Thranduil and Legolas.)

Legolas is not Thranduil's son

And Legolas (thus Heroic Bastard) and Tauriel act like siblings because they are (half-) siblings. Thranduil mistakes it for romantic involvement because its just not possible for an unrelated male and female be friends otherwise. Note that elves generally Do. Not. Have. Affairs, but that Elves' shiny perfect family life has exceptions [3] (relevant information at bottom of section).

Fíli and Kíli are only half dwarf

We never see their father, nor do we have evidence Thorin or the others did. While Thorin is already tall for a Dwarf, Fíli and Kíli are especially so, and Kíli in particular is very slender for one. They also use unusual weapons for Dwarves—particularly Kíli, but dual wielding full-blown swords doesn't appear to be Dwarven standard either.

Dwarven gold has a lower melting point than regular gold.

Somewhat of a justification of the Convection, Schmonvection seen in The Desolation of Smaug: instead of melting at 1064.18 °C, the gold seen in the movie melts only a bit above 100 °C, not much hotter than boiling water. Therefore, when the characters interact with it (e.g. Thorin riding the wheelbarrow), it doesn't burn them immediately unless they directly touch it.

• Alternately, Erebor's dwarves invented heat-proof metal, and that's what the wheelbarrow was made of. Which, ironically, probably made it more valuable than the molten gold it displaced in that scene.

The stone giants in the Misty Mountains are creations of Morgoth from before the Elves awakened.

It is said that Morgoth raised the Misty Mountains to hinder Orome's passage east and corrupt the elves. It is likely that he left some sentries there to stop a titanic horseman. Now, the giants look more like automatons than sentient beings, which corresponds well with the way the dwarves looked when Aule created them before Eru granted them life.

Azog is a boldog.

Per some of Tolkien's notes in Morgoth's Ring, "boldog" was a term (or title) for minor evil Maiar inhabiting the bodies of orc-chieftains. Azog being such a creature would explain why he (and his son) are so much more powerful than regular orcs, his willingness to backtalk Sauron and put his own agenda above Sauron's will (being a boldog wouldn't make him Sauron's equal, but would make him a lot closer to that than any ordinary orc could dream of being) and possibly even his unusual appearance.

Thorin gave away the Mithril so easily because he looks at his Company as just another part of the treasure

All Hoe Yay aside...think about it, Thorin knows the dwarves in his company are all going to stay around, and why should he think Bilbo would not do the same? Even Bilbo in LOTR says he misses the mountains and adventures he had, maybe offscreen he mentions this to Thorin, that he likes these things, so Thorin, under his madness thinks Bilbo is going to stay forever in Erebor with them (plus in the scene when Fili and Kili arrive in the mountain, Thorin throws a jewel to Fili before welcoming them to the mountain ) what does it matter giving a piece of treasure to another treasure that won't leave his side? He speaks warmly to his nephews and Bilbo in both scenes (yes the shirt is most likely worth more than the jewel to US as the audience, but to Thorin himself, it's all equal ("I will not part with a SINGLE coin" come to mind here? )