Live Blogs Umineko Visual Novels : the Live But Delayed Blogination

Jhiday2010-12-23 09:51:45

Taken literally, EP 6 is a bigger puzzle than ever. 17 people ? And how does Kanon move around between closed rooms as though they didn't exist ?

But then, even the slowest of readers should have caught on the answer to this, as the symbolism is laid on very thickly. The whole "lovers' trial" sequence has no plot purpose except to hint at it, after all. So let's spell it out clearly : Shannon = Kanon = Beato. It's only one person switching between identities as convenient. So of course they can only pledge their love to one person at a time, hence the symbolic love trials (which of course mostly take place inside their head). Thus Kanon never was in the Cousins' room ; Shannon exits the room next over through the window, and changes into Kanon (maybe because it's more convenient to run around ?) to head to the mansion ; and Kanon can disappear from the guest room by changing into Beato  ^*

The various flashbacks help explain how these multiple identities came to be. While the actual reason why remains a mystery so far, it's plenty clear that the Kanon identity was created by Genji (who can easily fake a servant's existence and arrange the shifts so that they're never seen together), with Kumawasa helping the deception (did she stumble upon it, or was she in on the plan from the start ? Who knows...). What seems clear is that nobody other than those three knew about it ; that's the only way Jessica's crush makes sense, and everyone seems to treat Kanon better than clumsy old Shannon (Krauss even taught him how to shoot !).

What's a lot clearer is how Beato came to be. Six years ago, Battler gave to an impressionable young girl a description of his ideal woman ; is it any wonder she'd decide to remake herself in that image ? And of course she'd be disappointed now that he doesn't remember this "promise"... (Also, remember that the earliest rumours about the current Beato were started by Shannon trying to cover for her own clumsiness...)

You'd think that Shannon & Kanon being the same person would be unworkable, but it actually works surprisingly well with the existing narrative. Most of the occasions when they're seen interacting together, they're either alone (so it's all in their head) or with Genji and/or Kumawasa ; the few exceptions are interesting in their own right. Let's go at it episode by episode, shall we ?

EPISODE 1

Throughout the episode, Kanon's actions are very suspect ; he's the one who finds the first set of corpses, and later who opens up the room with the second twilight's corpses. That's plenty opportunity to fudge things around. The attack against him by Beato is easy enough to fake, and his offscreen "death" was witnessed by only Jessica (who has every reason to cover for him) and Dr Nanjo (who has no credibility whatsoever at this point).

Now, this certainly isn't Shannon's corpse that Hideyoshi found in the barn. I guess it could be a random decoy corpse brought in by Shannon to fake her own death, but I don't really believe in such a contrivance. I'd much rather think that there were only five corpses in the barn, and that this was a "tactful" way for Shannon (helped by Eva & Hideyoshi, who were obviously all for it) to break up with George. I presume that at this point Beato was dominant, and she's only interested in Battler.

This, obviously, suggests heavily that Eva, Shannon and Hideyoshi killed Krauss, Rudolf, Kyrie and Rosa (3 against 4 is plausible with surprise and better weapons on their sides), and Gohda was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. I have no clue why they left Natsuhi alone... as a scapegoat, maybe ? Anyway, it's no wonder Kanon would kill Eva and Hideyoshi later on (they knew too much), and the same motive can be ascribed to the deaths of Genji, Kumawasa and Dr Nanjo later on. As for Natsuhi, it was personal : there's a long-standing grudge between her and Shannon, and a flashback in EP 6 showed that she didn't treat Kanon much better. (Also, see my thoughts on EP 5.)

Presumably the Rock Falls Everyone Dies ending prevented the conclusion of this particular story.

EPISODE 2

In this iteration, it seems clear that Shkanon made a deal with Rosa when the latter caught her cosplaying as Beatrice for Maria's sake. I think Rosa was smart enough to catch who she was dealing with, but Shannon might have been good enough for the "Beatrice" façade to work. At least she went the full yard to make it work, with Genji's help, hence the whole guest room set up. And of course Shannon and Kanon were the only ones authorized to serve "Beatrice" meals (presumably they ate the food themselves).

We know in red that Kanon died in Jessica's room. Well, since Shannon's still walking around alive and well, this can only be meant in the spiritual sense : the Kanon personality "died" when she killed Jessica  ^*

I'm not entirely sure what was the deal with killing Kumasawa and Dr Nanjo (did they balk at the murders ?), but with Shannon and Genji around Gohda wasn't going to publicly object to the "a witch did it" version.

It's a bit of a shame that when "Beatrice" was finally reunited with Battler, he was too hammered to understand it clearly...

EPISODE 3

The first twilight is built on a gigantic lie : there's no way the parents could have really found the chained rooms as explained, considering that there can't be separate corpses for Kanon and Shannon. I'm a bit confused about how much of it is a lie : are Genji, Gohda and Kumawasa really dead too ? I'm going to say "yes" for now.

And the rotating wheel of people "Beatrice" allies herself with now falls on... Rudolf and Kyrie ! I'll admit I have absolutely no evidence on this one, but I agree with whoever's WMG that the "chained locked rooms" setup smelt like something Kyrie would cook up. The four "real" corpses and Shannon playing dead are enough to fool the other adults, especially if Dr Nanjo was strongly advised to play along.

Rudolf and Kyrie suddenly going to the mansion, ignoring all caution, can thus be chalked up with trying to meet their accomplice (Beato), but Hideyoshi tagging along and Eva tailing them leads the a bloody confrontation only Eva came out alive of. Beato was too scared to even show up, although she did retaliate against Eva by leading George away from safety, giving him a last kiss, and killing him. (There's also the option of Eva aiming at Beato and mistakenly killing George, as the witch's narrative suggests, but I'm not sure about that.)

Later on, Dr Nanjo was obviously killed by Beato, yet again using the "Kanon & Shannon are dead" red text loophole. I'm not entirely sure why she hid Jessica away from Eva, though.

EPISODE 4

I'm really not sure at all what happened in this one. Grampa showing up at the family conference is obviously bullshit, as are the captivity and escape scenes. Maybe it turned into a bloody shoot-out until cooler heads (Krauss, Kyrie and Shkanon) prevailed ? They at least got a common version out for the kids.

Most of the mechanics for the other deaths elude me. Did Jessica kill George ? How were Gohda and Kumasawa killed ? How did the other adults die ? Who poisoned Maria ? What's sure is that Beato survived long enough to have her confrontation with Battler. But then, what happened so that Battler could find Shannon's corpse later on ? Did she kill herself ?

This is the episode I don't have much clue about.

EPISODE 5

Now this one is interesting.

Let's forget about the first twilight and everyone maybe pulling a prank on Erika. What I'd rather talk about is the midnight conference. What became obvious on a second reading is that it's complete bullshit, as it shows Shannon and Kanon interacting with everyone as individuals. So they all lied. And indeed, we know that Battler's not a reliable narrator anymore, while Erika had already left the building. So something completely different from what was described happened then. It's obviously when the prank against Erika would be debated (and Rosa, leaving halfway through, would have briefed the children about it)... But what matters is that it frees Shkanon up to make the call to Natsuhi as "the kid from 19 years ago".

And I believe that's who Shkanon really is. After all, EP 6 told us that "all this started 19 years ago" when referring to her, didn't it ? And this would provide all the more motive for Beato's grudge against Natsuhi, which has been something of a constant so far.

By the way, I'm all the readier to accept this episode's proceedings as a prank against Erika because of one point : with Battler becoming the head, Beato loses a lot of her motivation to go on a murdering rampage against the family. (And she certainly wouldn't do anything to incriminate him.)

So, that's what I've managed to piece together so far. Really, it's remarkable how a single, apparently impossible reveal made nearly everything clearer. It even explains some random bits of characterization, such as why Kanon is so reluctant to give in to Jessica (their relationship is built on a big lie). That's the sign of the best twists : it makes complete sense in hindsight.

Comments

74.105.17.177 Since: Dec, 1969

Dec 23rd 2010 at 10:56:20 AM

(Arbane here - I can't log in on this computer.)

Very nice analysis! And it matches up pretty well with my own wild guesses so far.

One nitpick about EP 2, though. I'm reasonably sure that Shannon really was dead when Battler & Co. found her - he mentions that after the Stake fell out, he could see the inside of her skull, which would be hard to fake...

Jhiday Since: Dec, 1969

Dec 23rd 2010 at 11:41:22 AM

Darn. I really wanted Beato to still be alive at the end of EP 2, but I can't think of a good loophole around this. Sigh.

76.175.202.223 Since: Dec, 1969

Dec 23rd 2010 at 1:18:24 PM

Jeremy Kopczynski from RPG.Net here.

Thank you so very much for finishing this. Your analysis seems spot on.

My only real comment is that before Battler confronts Beatrice in EP 4 he only sees the body of George. All of the other deaths could have been by a depressed and enraged Beatrice who then killed herself to match the fake story. George might have been killed because he violently rejected the plan and its implied Battler/Shkannontrice pairing. He did say in his test he would kill anyone who got in the way of Shannon and him after all.

arbane Since: Dec, 1969

Dec 23rd 2010 at 2:55:11 PM

One thought on Episode 4: From Episode 2, we know that someone found the hidden gold, and Beatrice red-texts that Everyone acknowledged Kinzo at the family meeting!. My guess is that Shkanon announced their finding the gold to everyone gathered, announced that they were taking Kinzo's place as the new head, and then Stuff Happened.

Heatth Since: Dec, 1969

Dec 23rd 2010 at 7:07:28 PM

Awesome. As I expected (by seeing your general remarks), your main theory is very similar to mine, yet it is quite different in the details. So, please allow me compare our theories a bit and present a bit of nit picks. I naturally do have some foreknowledge regarding EP7, of course, but I promise avoid the topics realized in this Episode as much as I can, to avoid letting some spoiler slip.

First, I am obviously in accord that Shannon = Kanon = Beato (and yes, there are people who still denies this). I originally thought this was something I had to swallow, but that were unbelievable, since Krauss family does obviously not know. But, I guess, if Genji and Kumasawa helps, it could be explained. I would add that Kanon 'birth' must happen after Kinzo's death, otherwise he would also have to be in the secret, witch is unlikely, I think.

I will then propose a small backup theory (that mostly fits yours): EP1 and EP2 are what Beatrice, i.e.Shannon, was planning to do, while the rest are scenarios where something goes wrong. This is based on the Message Bottles and, more important, in the 'Forgeries' we learn of in EP6. The message bottles were written by 'Beatrice', and are scenaries she imagined for her plans. The rest is Hachijo playing 'what if'.

That being said, lets go Episode by Episode:

Episode 1: I frankly never even considered Eva helping the murder here. Personally, of the 4 siblings, she, Krauss and their spouses are the ones I find less likely to commit cold blood murder. You theory is plausible, of course, but if we think through, Evan and Hideyoshi involvement are not needed. Outside the first twilight, Shannon can pull it alone. Even the first can be done without help, if she has guns or used poison.

Also, there must consider why would Eva agree. One must remember that, with 3 siblings dead, the last one will be the one more likely to be considered culprit. We know the police cleared Eva in Ange future, but could Eva (or anyone) predict that far?

Episode 2: As Arbane said, Shannon was pretty much unmistakably dead. Her stake is the only one not firm, which is explained if it was suicide (something like Rika in Meakashi I suppose).

Another thing to note, is that this time I agree Rosa have, at some level collaborate. That would explain the Capel lock (it was never locked) and why we saw her with Beatrice. Naturally, despite helping a bit, she is not found of helping a murder, which is why she is so aggressive against the servants (who she knew were on it). What is not so easy to explain is why Rosa suddenly decided to run away with Maria in the end.

Episode 3: The one I disagree the most. I don't think Kyrie and Rudolf were on it. In fact, I will stick with the old "Eva did it" theory.

What goes 'wrong' here, by my theory, is Eva (and Rosa) actually solved the Epitaph.

We agree as far the First Twilight goes. After that, Eva solves the Epitaph, becomes "Beatrice" and as a result, made the "real" Beatrice give up the murdering (yes, I am assuming she will actually follow her letter). Unfortunately, Eva accidentally killed Rosa (they struggle and Rosa slipped on the rain) and, in panic "silenced" Maria (note Eva starts to get really disturbed after that).

Rudolf and Kyrie called Hideyoshi out for the reason Battler and Virgilia exposed originally, to interrogate him about the fake alibi. They end up killing themselves in the hotblood of the discussion. The stakes are placed by either Nanjo (who was not be aware the plans changed) or Shannon (to... make things interesting?).

Krauss and Natsuhi are killed by Eva, who see no solution other then finish them after the 3 new deaths. Nanjo is killed by either Hideyoshi or Kyrie on their last breath (he staked them or, at last, lied on his autopsy). Eva kills Battler after he accuses her. I agree about George, though.

I have no much reason for that other then I believe Beatrice has no much reason to lie in the letter. However, this is also to support my theory about the letters and the forgeries.

Episode 4: I am very sad you have no clue here, because I don't either. ^^; What I can suppose is that the "what gone wrong" is the cause for the early murders. All Episodes have the murdering happening after the first day, so it is safe to assume this is the culprit original goal. My guess is Shannon was discovered early here, so she had to take hostages.

Episode 5:

I am really impressed here, because I wouldn't be able to reason that far. Your conclusions about the midnight conference and Shannon are very interesting.

However, there is a gap in your theory. I believe it was said in red the 6 of the first twilight have, in fact, died (the time of the dead, is, of course, hidden). This goes against my own theory as well, but I can't think anyone other then Shannon to be able, or have reason, to do the killings.

Anyway, I loved your theories. While I prefer mine, thanks to you I will have to rethink my own conclusions about EP1 and EP3. Your theory about EP5 is quite telling as well.

Sorry for the massiveness of my comment. And also sorry if such thing was uncalled for. If you find it annoying I may edit it out (I think I overdid a bit by stating my own theories as well).

There is something I have to say: you do realize the TIPS menu after each Episode (the one you access in the main menu) may contain some Easter Eggs? I am not talking about the extra tips, but the 'extras' you can find in the character profiles. You know, you can change the normal sprites for the alternatives ones (like Shannon and George in EP2) and even find hidden profiles like Sista556 in EP4 onward (you can revive her as well). More important, you can 'execute' Erika in EP6(but not EP5), both profiles actually. There is a hint there one can not ignore.

arbane Since: Dec, 1969

Dec 23rd 2010 at 7:32:28 PM

@Heatth - Yes, we do get told that the 6 people 'killed' in the first twilight of Episode 5 really did die... but only at the 24:00 point in the game, when everyone is usually already dead anyway. We were also told that "After (victim) died, their body was never moved!" for all the 6 victims, which tells us that they weren't dead until AFTER they disappeared.

Edit to add: It occurs to me that there's now a good explanation for one relatively minor mystery in Episode 1: The bloody handprints on Natsuhi's door could be just due to Shkannon trying to freak out Natsuhi, even without knowing about the scorpion charm.

Heatth Since: Dec, 1969

Dec 24th 2010 at 3:31:30 AM

Really? That would make things simpler. However, we still have Krauss death. He was killed just after the phone call. That I am pretty sure of.

Jhiday Since: Dec, 1969

Dec 24th 2010 at 5:21:47 AM

@ Heatth : we disagree less than you think. I was mostly concerned with the effects of the Shkanon retcon, so I left alone all the events she wasn't involved in, like Rosa's chapel door trick in EP 2, or Eva's rampage in EP 3 (do note that the only murder I have Beato commit after Eva finding the gold is Dr Nanjo, and even this can be ascribed to — for example — preventing him from killing Jessica).

I don't get your point regarding Kanon and Grampa. First, we have concrete evidence to the contrary : I'm pretty sure Kanon was stated as starting working in Rokkenjima "three years ago" (as opposed to Grampa's death a bit more than a year ago), and he has to been there longer than Gohda (two years there) for him to be trusted by Natsuhi into the "Grampa's still alive" mascarade. Anyway, what does it matter if Grampa knows (and I don't think so, as he was already a recluse and Natsuhi's the one in charge of the household matters ; SHE is the one who should be hard to fool) ? He's dead...

I did notice that some TIPS were unlocked on completion, but I have to admit I didn't think to re-check them since my first completion of EP 6 months ago. I'll give them a look next week when I come back home.

Heatth Since: Dec, 1969

Dec 24th 2010 at 9:23:06 AM

I see. I suppose we agree a lot then. I still don't quite buy the Beatrice allying with one couple each time, but I can't deny it is a clever theory. Even better if you consider that, by that theory, the only adults Shannon did not allied herself to is Natsuhi and Krauss, which make sense if you believe she just dislike the woman.

My point is Kinzo is the one giving the right to bestow the One Winged Eagle. I just don't like the idea of him being fooled to give such honor to a non existent guy. I believe Kanon is there for 2 years, not 3. But I haven't considered Gohda, so I guess I will just accept Kinzo is being fooled too for now.

Please, recheck the TIPS. Not the 'TIPS' itself, but the characters. Specifically, 'execute' Erika (both 'human' and 'magical'). I don't think it is such a big thing, but it definitively worth a mention. Since you haven't commented, I can only suppose you missed it.

Happy Christmas (eve). =)

Crinias Since: Dec, 1969

Dec 27th 2010 at 9:44:00 PM

@Jhiday : Just gonna clear up some details regarding EP 3 and what the hells happened in EP 4.

Prepare yourselves for a Wall Of Text.

The details of EP 3’s closed room chain are a bit confusing, but here I go: The order in which the adults found the corpses is: Shannon, Kumasawa, Gohda, Genji, Kinzo and Kanon. We know that they are all 'dead' and that there is no one hiding in the room, but the order in which they searched the rooms is key: they first check on Shannon, and Nanjo confirms that she is dead, but he could have easily been conspiring with her. They take her master key, close the room, check on all the corpses up until Kinzo, find the key to the chapel… and during this time, Shannon/Beato goes to the chapel (which was presumably open), dresses as Kanon, closed the door of the chapel from the inside (it probably has a manual lock) and plays dead. She took Kanon’s master key and the key to the parlor (which she had used to open and close the room after the adults closed it), and left it there for the adults to find. Nanjo of course covers for her again. That should be enough to clear the details on that one. It’s worth noting that if they had decided to force open another room first, like say the second floor’s guestroom, the whole thing would have been blown apart.

As for EP 4… well, it’s a hell of a complicated theory, and potentially contains SPOILERS for the Howdunnit and Whydunnit. However, I would like to say that everything below could have been reasoned out from the first 4 Episodes.

We already know that Shannon is Kanon. We already know that she (or he) is also Beatrice. Episode 5 confirmed to us via red text that Beatrice was in possession of the gold, but you could have guessed from the first 4 Episodes that she already had it. Maria and a whole bunch of people say it, and Maria turned out to be right about a lot of things, including the fact that Beatrice ‘exists’. We also know via Ange in EP 4 that some if not all of the remaining family members received money from ‘Beatrice’, and that the cards with PIN numbers came in letters meant to arrive after the whole Rokkenjima Incident (because they were sent one day before the incident). If anything, this can only mean that Beatrice was planning on using her gold to coerce the servants into helping her kill everybody and that the money she promised to each of them (100 million yen IIRC) would arrive after the whole incident was over.

What proof is there that she actually did this? Aside from having little difficulty to convince the servants into helping her, Rudolf said in EP 1 that he expected to be killed. I think that Rudolf may have had second thoughts about Beatrice’s whole plan, and upon informing to Beatrice that he refused to do things for , he expected her to kill him as well. He simply didn’t have the nerve to tell Battler and Kyrie as well (Speaking of those two, Beatrice paying Rudolf money to force him to reveal that Asumu is not Battler’s mother could work its way into this theory, and it would explain how she knew about it, and was able to say it in red.).

Where am I going with all this? If you have ten fricking tons of gold, it wouldn’t be hard to convince a lot of people to do things that would normally be against their nature. How do I know that she convinced a lot of people? Gohda and Kumasawa informed the cousins in the guesthouse that Kinzo had gone mad and had started killing everyone, but we already know that Kinzo is dead and that Gohda isn’t even supposed to know he’s dead. The whole thing was Beatrice convincing people to do and say stuff that has already been scripted in advance (and that she herself eventually fulfilled to make it look true).

I don’t know how she killed Gohda and Kumasawa. That seems like the hardest part of the Howdunnit. It might be possible if you could shoot Gohda and Kumasawa from the shutter to the storeroom, but I don’t remember the details on its structure.

However, I know what happened near the end. Beatrice talks to Battler and tells him to atone for his sin from 6 years ago. We are told that Battler’s sin is forgetting something. We know that this sin isn’t against Beatrice. And we also know that Shannon and Kanon are Beatrice. We also know that Battler notes that Beato’s eyes seem to be saying that it’s a sin against her, even though that was just denied by the red. Therefore, the sin is against Shannon.

What could he have possibly done against her? EP 3. Before any of the murders, Jessica asks Shannon if she remembers anything embarrassing that Battler might have said. “Let's see. ......I'm sure that he said something like this when he left. 'I'll be back, <see you again>. I'll come to greet you riding on a white horse.'" “Without love, it cannot be seen”… the truth, and the motive. Shannon loved Battler, and Battler himself admitted in an internal monologue that he did used to have a crush on Shannon.

And we already know that he didn’t come back because he had a fight with Rudolf. In the six years before he returned, things happened and she hatched a plan to kill everyone on Rokkenjima.

(A bit of a side-note here, related to the Whydunnit. George loves Shannon. Jessica has a crush on Kanon. Maria is treated by Beatrice as a very dear (maybe her only) friend. Meta-Battler and Meta-Beatrice developed feelings for each other, and in fact started flirting with one another from the moment they met. In other words, s/he was the source of affection of all 4 cousins. This plays very heavily into the Whydunnit.)

So when Battler says that he doesn't remember his promise, she is heartbroken, and most likely, asks Maria to die with her, in peace. I guess you could call it a double-suicide pact. Shannon’s corpse was found near the well which leads to the Kuwadorian, and her death is explained via suicide: she shot herself in the forehead while leaving a stake lying around, and after shooting, the gun falls thorugh the bars of the well.

Maria was killed by poison. Maybe Beatrice convinced her that drinking it was a way to go to the Golden Land, or maybe she chose to kill herself as part of the test.

Battler waits for a whole day, but nothing more happens. At midnight on the second day, he is killed. And that’s where it ends.

Wall Of Text ends here.

PataHikari Since: Dec, 1969

Jan 6th 2011 at 11:17:58 AM

My guess is that Shkanon announced their finding the gold to everyone gathered , announced that they were taking Kinzo's place as the new head

I figured it was something like Shkanon said "screw this" wheeled out Kinzo's corpse, said she's in charge now, and they'd better play along if they want any gold.

arbane Since: Dec, 1969

Jan 11th 2011 at 10:52:06 PM

Heh. I hadn't thought of THAT possibility. And all the red text says is that everyone "Acknowledged the existence of Kinzo."