History Main / NeverTellMeTheOdds

Website/TheOtherWiki calls this [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_probability "neglect of probability."]] Contrast ILikeThoseOdds, which have a similarly badass sentiment. Related to NotHowImDyingDeclaration.

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** In episode 2 Cecile says to Suzaku that "It's possible, but the chances are close to zero." In one of the previous scenes he asked Cecile if his friend Lelouch can be alive. Unsurprisingly it turns out that he is alive [[spoiler:and leads terrorist force against Britanian army.]]

* Inverted in ''Manga/Eyeshield21'', where not only does everyone ''want'' to know the odds, at one point Hiruma reminds the team that 99% chance of winning is still 1% chance of losing.
** Although Hiruma will take the chance of winning if it is anything more than 0% (and he rarely says the odds are 0%)

* ''Anime/NeonGenesisEvangelion'': Misato ignores Ritsuko's estimations of the probability of success catching the tenth angel being 0.0000001% (one in a billion). Once you know more about the EVA-01, the odds may have been ''way'' higher in the first place...
** The operations against Ramiel and Sahaquiel have a higher probability of success (still only a small fraction of a percent), which makes you wonder whether Ritsuko and the Magi supercomputers are cooking up numbers out of thin air.
** ''Anime/RebuildOfEvangelion'' has Misato defying impossible odds practically OnceAnEpisode.

* In the first arc of ''Literature/{{Slayers}}'' Lina expresses a logical explanation for this trope: If you dwell on the fact that you only have a MillionToOneChance, you'll go in expecting to fail, which guarantees that you will.

* Dr. Ichigaki in ''Manga/YuYuHakusho''

* ''Film/{{Barbarella}}''. Barbarella's spaceship is damaged in a [[SpaceX space]] hurricane. The computer tells her that chances of survival are 0 point 0000[[OhCrap 0h..0h...0h...]][[ElectronicSpeechImpediment 0hhhhh....]] Our heroine, of course, survives unharmed.
* ''Film/TheChroniclesOfNarnia'': Before the Battle of Beruna in ''Film/TheLionTheWitchAndTheWardrobe'', a Narnian soldier informs Peter and his centaur general Oreius that the enemy has greater numbers.
-->'''Oreius:''' Numbers do not win a battle.\\
'''Peter:''' No... but I bet they help.

* ''Film/Interceptor2022''. The heroine comes up with a CrazyEnoughToWork plan while videoconferencing with the White House Situation Room, where a dweebish game theory specialist refuses to approve what he says has a 14% chance of working. She angrily replies that [[ItsTheOnlyWay every other option available has a 0% chance of working]].

* ''Film/IRobot'' has the premise of Creator/WillSmith as a robot-hating cop, due to a traffic accident in which a robot chose to save him instead of a small girl, simply because his chances of survival were better.[[note]]The robot was forced to do so based on The First Law of Robotics ("A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm") -- Will Smith's character had the highest probability of survival, and logically the better choice to save first.[[/note]] In a flashback, Smith's character can be seen begging the NS-4 to save the girl instead of him.

* ''Film/IronMan1'' features this exchange between Tony and his onboard AI during the final fight:

'''[[FunWithAcronyms JARVIS]]:''' With only 15% power, the odds of reaching that altitude are--\\

* This exchange between Spock and Kirk in ''Film/StarTrek2009'':
-->'''Spock:''' Jim... the statistical likelihood that our plan will succeed is less than 4.3%.\\

** ''Film/TheEmpireStrikesBack'' is the TropeNamer here, although it happens elsewhere in the ''Star Wars'' works.

* Because Literature/{{Discworld}} runs on the TheoryOfNarrativeCausality, it's a universal law that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.
** In ''Literature/GuardsGuards'', the [[GenreSavvy characters note that saying "It's a million to one chance but it just might work" practically guarantees success]]. Needless to say, this leads to the comic relief team engaging in a painstaking process of rebalancing their odds of success to be EXACTLY one in a million. By the time they're done, the archer who's supposed to hit the dragon's weak point as it flies overhead has been handicapped to truly amazing levels. [[spoiler:He then misses, naturally]].

** Rogue Squadron (mostly in the [[Literature/XWingSeries X-Wing novels]], but also everywhere else) succeeds in so many "impossible" and "one-in-a-million" missions that their unofficial motto is, "Impossible is our stock in trade". Given that they were founded by the only two X-Wing pilots to survive the first Death Star...

* ''Literature/TheHitchhikersGuideToTheGalaxy'' parodies this with the Heart of Gold that's essentially powered by extremely slim odds of something happening.
* In ''[[Literature/TheWheelOfTime Towers of Midnight]]'' Birgette tells Mat that the odds of getting back from the Tower of Ghenji are one in a thousand. Mat responds by taking out ten coins and predicting that when he throws them every single one will land heads up (1/1024 chance if you were wondering). They do, and Mat remarks that "for me, one in a thousand is good odds." Being ta'veren means that when Mat is around one in a thousand actually IS good odds.
* ''Literature/ThePhantomTollbooth'': [[spoiler:Milo's quest was ''impossible'', but he did it anyway, because nobody told him it was impossible until after he was done.]]
* Literal variant: In Creator/RobertAHeinlein's ''Literature/TunnelInTheSky'', two students discuss whether to drop a survival course before their practical wilderness exam. One (who drops it) asks if the other has seen the casualty statistics on last year's class, and the other (who takes the exam and prevails) replies that he doesn't ''want'' to see them.
* At one point, Belgarion, the rather impetuous hero (and newly empowered sorcerer) of David Eddings' ''Literature/TheBelgariad,'' attempts to bring a stillborn colt back to life. His grandfather, the ancient sorcerer Belgarath, tries to stop him, but he won't listen. When it works, his grandfather explains to him that he could have hurt or killed himself (which is what often happens to sorcerers who try to do the impossible,) because to bring something back to life ''you have to understand Death''. Up to now, it's turned out nobody understood Death ''that'' well. This becomes important later.
* ''Literature/TheMurderbotDiaries''. Murderbot has a risk assessment module, but [[SuspiciouslySpecificDenial always complains about it being a cheap and inaccurate program]] whenever Murderbot is about do something risky. In ''Exit Strategy'' Murderbot goes to rescue Dr. Mensah and [[ItsTheOnlyWay just turns the risk assessment module off.]]

* Averted in ''Series/BlakesSeven'' where battle computers are consulted as a routine strategy, especially by [[TheSpock stoic computer expert Avon]]. In "Horizon", when Avon considers abandoning his colleagues and fleeing with the Liberator, he has Orac calculate the odds of succeeding with a CrewOfOne. Sometimes though he is disappointed.

** And this line from "Ultraworld":
--->'''Tarrant:''' It's a calculated risk.
--->'''Avon:''' Calculated on what -- your fingers?

** Inverted in "[[Recap/DoctorWhoS27E10TheDoctorDances The Doctor Dances]]", where Captain Jack actually asks for his odds of survival (and then, of course, defies them anyway). Notably, he doesn't try to fight them. Having been told he is dead, he has a drink and then gets rescued.

* ''Series/Halo2022''. In the Season One finale, Cortana tells Vannack that he has to pilot the exact path she's calculated through the gravitational forces or be [[FoldSpindleMutilation "spaghettified"]]. When Vannak wants to know why she didn't mention this before, Cortana cheerfully says their odds of success were already so low [[YouDoNotWantToKnow she didn't want to worry them]].

* In the ''Series/StargateSG1'' episode "Solitudes", Jack and Sam are stranded on a glacier on an unknown planet, and Sam starts calculating the odds that another team will find them before they freeze to death. Jack cuts her off before she can actually get to a number, and she sheepishly admits, "I think too much." [[spoiler:It turns out she's right -- going through all the possible gate addresses wouldn't have been helpful. Fortunately, they're actually in Antarctica...]]
* In ''Franchise/StarTrek'', Spock mentions the odds of the crew's success being very low. Naturally, Kirk presses on anyway.
** Averted in "Errand of Mercy". Spock calculates very poor odds of attacking the Klingon headquarters. They attack anyway, and fail and are surrounded--though they do make it as far as the commander's office.
** Also averted in "Devil of the Dark". Spock predicts with extremely high odds that either he, Kirk, or both will survive the attempt to locate the Horta together. Unsurprisingly, he is correct.
** Lampshaded in the film ''Film/StarTrekGenerations''
--->'''Kirk:''' I take it the odds are against us and the situation is grim.\\
'''Picard:''' You could say that.\\
'''Kirk:''' You know, if Spock were here, he'd say that I was an irrational, illogical human being by taking on a mission like that. Sounds like fun!
** Lampshaded in ''Series/StarTrekVoyager'': Seven of Nine and Tuvok are discussing the captain's latest plan, Tuvok points out it isn't the first time the captain has beaten the odds. To which Seven replies "She does seem to succeed more than random chance would allow. I'll add that to my calculations."
** In the episode "Scientific Method" where the crew discovers they have been boarded by cloaked aliens performing medical experiments, Captain Janeway has the ship fly into a binary pulsar (two stars close together) to force the aliens to evacuate before their cloaked ships are destroyed along with Voyager, despite Tuvok's warning that their odds of escaping certain death is 1 in 20.
--->'''Janeway:''' I hope you were exaggerating about those odds, Tuvok.\\

* {{Inverted}} in ''VideoGame/Left4Dead2''

'''Nick:''' You mean, alive Infected, or alive and not zombies?\\

* In ''VideoGame/{{Derelict}}'', during the mission "Hail Mary", Lieutenant Mackie dismisses the odds and tells everyone to just get the job done. Considering the consequence for not getting the job done is [[spoiler:TheEndOfTheWorldAsWeKnowIt]], this is a rather sensible reaction.
* In ''VideoGame/RatchetAndClankUpYourArsenal'':
-->'''Big Al:''' I estimate our odds at approximately 1 in 63 Million... give or take.\\
'''Ratchet:''' Hey, that's uhh... well you know, not so bad.
* ''VideoGame/Halo3'' gives us this charmer:
-->'''Elite XO:''' Brute Ships! Staggered Line. Ship Master! They outnumber us 3 to 1!\\
'''Ship Master:''' Then it is an even fight. All ships fire at will! Burn their mongrel hides!
:: The Elites naturally win this fight in a landslide, likely applying the same tactics they've been using against the UNSC for decades against the Brutes.
* In ''VideoGame/MinecraftStoryMode'', this is directly referenced.
-->'''PAMA:''' The odds of you successfully defeating me are 3720 to 1.\\
'''Jesse:''' Never tell me the odds!

%%* Han Solo's use of the phrase is referenced in [[http://www.cinemabums.com/?p=482 this]] Webcomic/CinemaBums strip.
* {{Lampshaded}} in [[http://www.schlockmercenary.com/d/20020731.html this]] ''Webcomic/SchlockMercenary'' strip. True enough, they escape afterward, but they find an alternate -- and more statistically sound -- method to do so.
* Both Elan and Vaarsuvius {{lampshade}} this trope in ''Webcomic/TheOrderOfTheStick'' when a tiny demon succeeds in summoning a hugely powerful ally against all probability.

* Parodied in ''Webcomic/{{Starslip}}'' [[http://www.starslip.com/archive/20081211.shtml here.]]
* The classic ''Franchise/StarWars'' example is mocked and inverted in [[http://irregularwebcomic.net/482.html this]] ''Webcomic/IrregularWebcomic'' strip.
* [[http://spacetrawler.com/2010/04/19/spacetrawler-33/ This page]] of ''Webcomic/{{Spacetrawler}}''.
* ''Webcomic/ElGoonishShive'' references the ''Franchise/StarWars'' example [[http://egscomics.com/?date=2011-02-04 here.]]
* {{Inverted}} in the author's notes of [[http://leftoversoup.com/archive.php?num=201 this]] ''Webcomic/LeftoverSoup'' comic. The captain asks the android where the hell [[LudicrousPrecision four significant digits]] came from. Logically enough, the android exploited the fact that ComputersAreFast and did a weighted average of about two million similar cases -- and even took into account the fact that the captain defies the odds on a regular basis! Even after all that, the odds are abysmal, so the captain [[SubvertedTrope decides to accept the android's advice and take the long route]].
* Spoofed in ''Webcomic/{{Vexxarr}}'' when Minionbot tells about how he's now living his dream to fight implacable enemies and beat them [[http://www.vexxarr.com/archive.php?seldate=090712 against impossible odds.]]

* Forgath lifts the exact quote in [[http://www.goblinscomic.com/comic/01152013/ this page]] of ''Webcomic/{{Goblins}}''.

* In ''WesternAnimation/FamilyGuy'''s ''Film/TheEmpireStrikesBack'' parody [[WesternAnimation/FamilyGuyPresentsLaughItUpFuzzball "Something, Something, Something Dark Side"]]:

'''Han/Peter:''' Never tell me the o...oh. Actually, that's not bad. Yeah, let's, let's keep going.
* ''WesternAnimation/{{Ninjago}}'': In the episode "[[Recap/NinjagoS1E13DayOfTheGreatDevourer Day of the Great Devourer]]", as the Ninja are escaping the titular serpent, Zane says the probability of making it to Scattered canyon is less than 8%. Nya says "Never tell me the odds!" in response.
* One smart astronaut in the ''WesternAnimation/SamuraiJack'' episode "Jack in Space" kept giving impossibly high odds throughout the entire episode. Jack beat his odds every time.
* ''WesternAnimation/StarWarsRebels'': [[Recap/StarWarsRebelsS3E07TheWynkahthuJob "The Wynkahthu Job"]] has a variant:

* In ''WesternAnimation/TransformersAnimated'', Sentinel Prime orders Jazz to bring the ship to full power and take the route through an ion storm, as it is the quickest way back to Cybertron. Jazz states why both reasons are a bad idea. His response: He pulls rank on him and threatens to throw him into the brig with the Decepticons imprisoned on the ship. [[spoiler:It doesn't end well. But for different reasons...]]

Website/TheOtherWiki calls this [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglect_of_probability "neglect of probability."]] Contrast ILikeThoseOdds, which have a similarly badass sentiment.