Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality

You can probably find an e-book/audio book online for free, if you really want to stick it to Rand.

It really is worth a look though, if only to keep you up at night.

But who is John Galt?

The video game adaptation is more entertaining.

Anyway, from a discussion of a book I have not read yet to one that I have.

Hat and Cloak, or whoever was behind the Cooling Charm that nearly killed two of my favourite characters, is not, in my opinion, Quirrell. (or whoever wears his form and does not make the head of the Department of Magical Law Enforcement, Amelia Bones, dispatch with all undue haste to Azkaban)

It should be. It is the most obvious option of course. But on finally reading the last two or three chapters - be nice, I was busy doing other stuff - like blatting through all the Charlie Parker books like Mack Bolan wiping out the Mafia - it became less and less likely in my view that it actually was. Particularly when he gave Hermione the best advice that she is ever likely going to get. Get the hell out of Hogwarts when you still can.

Why do you think that makes it less likely that Hat and Cloak is Quirrell?

Because it would violate any sense of good story telling as far as I was concerned, unless I got a really damned good explanation for it. And because I love Quirinus Quirrell. I have read about a lot of teachers, met many of them in real life, and he is the only one that I have ever encountered outside of the Army that I would happily crawl over broken glass for if I met him in real life or in dreams. I know, I am not supposed to like the Dark characters as much as or more than the Light ones, but I do. For my purposes, I put Harry, Dumbledore and Quirrell in the Dark category.

It is screamingly obvious that it is Quirrell. But, to quote from the fic, "I notice that I am confused" by that. And we all know by now that we are more confused by fiction than reality.

Right now the only Professor of Hogwarts (that appears prominently in the fic and would conceivably cause the reaction that Hermione shows in her confrontation with Hat and Cloak) that I do not currently suspect is Minerva Mc Gonagall. It does not seem like her style, but then again, the whole concept of "style" takes a kicking throughout the book. It could well be her, after all. Damnit.

My main suspect at the minute though would be Filius Flitwick. Who is a former Duelling Champion and would not have received his position as Head of House Ravenclaw out of a "Lucky Bag" as we call them over here.

Narrative convention declares that the more likely it is that a certain suspect is a mystery individual, the less likely it is that it is actually him.

Eliezer would love to subvert conventions such as this, but only if he can do so intelligently.

That said, Flitwick would be one of the least likely to risk the lives of two students in such a manner.

Depends on the books/media you draw your first conclusion from, in my opinion. Much of western literature has had at its core that the screamingly obvious villain did it.

On the second one, yup, which is exactly why I picked him.

The real question is when will John Galt shut up?

Oh, probably not until the second film, which they still seem to be hell bent on making, is as big a disaster (by all reports) as the first one was.

It's not just a matter of toying with literary convention. One of the basic principles of the fic is encouragement of judgment that's rational in a real life context. Deliberately making the identity of a mystery individual that of the least likely suspect would be downright perverse.

Again, that depends. Since none of us except Mister Yudkowsky actually knows for sure at the moment exactly who and what Hat and Cloak is, any of our guesses is as equally valid as any other.

Would be worth a wager though. Pity William Hill or Ladbrokes wouldn't take a bet on it.

We need to set up an anonymous predictions market, with real money, for HP Mo R in order to indirectly incentivize EY to finish it.

No.

What could possibly go wrong?

Tam H 70: I would suggest that your "I am confused" moment is a question of models.

1) If Quirrelmortcloak is aiming to harm Harry, your model of Quirrel is excessively clouded by personal sentiment. This results in confusion. 2) If Quirrelmortcloak is aiming to help Harry but uses evil methods to do it, your model of Hat and Cloak can't square ultimately good intentions with his actions as to now. This results in confusion.

Personally, I do find it likely that Quirrelmort's goals currently are on the side of benefiting Harry, but that he and Harry have very different ideas of what that entails. I'm more evenly split on the question of whether Quirrelmort is raising Harry as Lord for Britain or for his own sake, though I'd naturally prefer the first. He's quite interesting.

I am still not sure that that particular portmanteau name fits as yet. I know that Quirrell is Riddle and we should know this already, but the same has not been said as yet in any author's note about Hat and Cloak. You are right about personal sentiment possibly clouding my judgment about Quirrell, I have pretty much said so already, but I still cannot see him (yet) as Hat and Cloak.

You are also right about Quirrell being interesting, unlike the Queen's Speech which is on the telly just now. I can name a few things that would make that particular farrago interesting but it would be perhaps not be too prudent to do so, 8-)

Argh. No more posts on this thread until the Author's Update on June 1st then?

'Fraid so.

We've discussed basically everything to death and the ending doesn't leave much room for analysis. I expect to be back here a week or two before new updates roll out.

edited 10th May '12 4:06:09 PM by thatguythere47

Go read Vinland Saga. It'll put hair on your chest.

Well, the ending may be leaving no real room for further analysis, (I disagree slightly but I am willing to follow consensus on this issue), the beginning still is up for debate.

"Beneath the moonlight glints a tiny fragment of silver, a fraction of a line...

(black robes, falling)

...blood spills out in liters, and someone screams a word."

I know think that the man behind the line was Dumbledore. Who is the holder of the "Line of Merlin Unbroken, the device of the Chief Warlock, and when I made my last guess, I hadn't yet read the bit where Minerva Mc Gonagall had this little comment to make to Dumbledore.

"Not this again!" Minerva said. "Albus, it was You-Know-Who, not you, who marked Harry as his equal. There is no possible way that the prophecy could be talking about you!"

I am not so sure about that any more.

Do we know any more about the person who supposedly guessed the whole plot from the first chapter?

Hypothesis: That person was fictional.

I don't think I actually said that. I said:

(1) I've seen someone get "the plot" from the fic as of Ch. 20, and they said they'd gotten it before then. (2) I thought people were going to get "the plot" from Ch. 1-3, possibly Ch. 1, and this was the Illusion of Transparency.